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Some good people here. I hope to meet some of you in the not too distant future. Merry Christmas to all.
Yes, definitely not limited to NNVC. For example I own NVDQ... at one point today there was a run of 25 straight individual transactions all either 3 or 4 shares and then some 1 share and 5 share trades a few minutes later. Very unusual. I've been seeing it in other stocks as well and as you state it started a couple of weeks ago.
Yes, I understood what you were saying.
I have found this is more the rule than the exception when putting in after hrs bids on many different stocks. Instant one-upmanship, done by computer.
EDGX happens to be the MM that has been pressing the offer all week.
a block of 281,000 shares crossed after the bell at $4.93. So as much as somebody wants out, it appears there is a sizeable player willing to soak it up.
I have noticed that in a number of stocks I follow over the last few weeks. Certainly not the norm... but I am not sure what has changed to cause that.
Most of the week you have had one MM pressing the offer and driving the majority of the selling volume. That continued today and suggests a single large player liquidating.... or potentially hedging a warrant position.
One decent possibility is shorting to partially hedge a warrant position. That is a pretty common occurrence.
the warrants are related to the direct offering that occurred in conjunction with the reverse split. Unless you were in on that offering (comprised of "accredited family funds, investors, and institutional investors"), you received no warrants.
Interesting action....most of the selling volume still being driven by the same MM. So you've got a number of folks that appear to be accumulating against one large, very willing seller.
It was stated that,
At some point they will lose control of rates and at some point the whole thing will blow up.
Yes, you continue to take the narrow view. That's fine. I laid out a very well supported alternative which makes a lot more sense. I guess you missed the chart which shows yields ROSE during each period of QE, and only fell when the Fed was NOT purchasing bonds. I suppose you can ignore that inconvenient little fact, just realize that it blows apart your theory.
Well, you are certainly expressing the conventional wisdom. I would only point out that the conventional wisdom often turns out to be wrong (see Japan). Another year or so and it should become quite evident. We'll see...
I edited in another link on that last post that I think is pretty insightful, and fully supported.
It's not off topic.... changes in financial policy can have a direct influence on the stock.
The fed has been buying a huge fraction of the treasury bonds issued, so that has certainly increased the price of the bonds over what they otherwise would have been.
Why QE was a successful failure
Taken at face value, the most massive expansion of a major central bank's balance sheet in history, in which almost $2.5 trillion was added to the U.S. monetary base for the purpose of artificially lowering long-term interest rates in order to stimulate the economy, was a failure. Why? Because 10-yr Treasury yields are no lower today than they were when QE1 was first announced in late November, 2008, and 30-yr Treasury yields are actually a bit higher, and because real GDP has grown at a 1.6% annualized pace over the same period, making this the weakest recovery on record. These facts say that the Fed was incapable of bringing down interest rates, and did absolutely nothing to boost the economy.
I don't agree with that view. Recent stronger than expected economic stats, increasing the odds of tapering sooner rather than later, have failed to move rates in any significant way. As always, an improvement in the economy was anticipated by the bond market and has been baked in. Tapering, which is widely expected, will likely have little to no effect on the overall market, even less on NNVC.
After all, while rates have been going up despite the massive bond purchases by the Fed they would be even higher without them.
I disagree completely, the Fed can't control long rates. Gross has been completely out to lunch in recent years, missing every major inflection point and continually chasing his tail on timing his own moves in and out of gov't securities.
QE3 proves the Fed is powerless to manipulate interest rates
If the Fed bought three quarters of the new issuance of Treasury securities over an 8-month period, with a focus on longer maturities, the 10-yr Treasury yield would almost certainly fall, right? And if the Fed bought all the new issuance of MBS over an 8-month period, increasing its share of home mortgages by over 40% in the process, yields on MBS would almost certainly fall, right?
Wrong. The Fed has indeed been a huge buyer of Treasuries and MBS since last September, but Treasury yields and MBS yields have moved significantly higher, not lower.
90% of the selling is coming through the same MM. Implies a single seller of some size is keeping a lid on things. Without that, the stock would really be flying today.
GLP tox scheduled to start Q1, reported out Q3.
tHe USA has become one of the most callous and cruel countries in the world.
Yep and just wait till next year when many more millions of employee sponsored plans get dumped onto the very narrow networks, void of top hospitals and Drs, that will comprise Obamacare. A complete disaster in the making, but will ultimately never fly. Only 34% approval now and that will get MUCH worse. All Dems up for reelection in 2014 are now against it. For good reason.
I guess you are looking forward to long lines and rationed care. No worries though, the economics just don't work. It will implode under its own weight.
Yes, that is my point. Obviously there are factors other than a large short position that go into the designation as "Hard To Borrow". Typically that would indicate an outsized short interest which obviously isn't the case here. I had refuted that notion in an earlier conversation and was following up with more evidence.
Short interest still minuscule at less than 1% as of end Nov report, despite continuing "Hard To Borrow" notation. Rose about 123,000 to a total of about 457,000 shares.
An FDA approved FluCide would likely do at least $2B a yr in annual sales. That alone would get you to a $10B market cap or $200/share. Then you can add whatever projections you like on top of that for each additional indication. But a successful antiviral platform over 10 yrs of development, with multiple approvals, would ultimately be worth far north of $200.
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Does this mean tried and rejected or tried and part of Oral FluCide?
If they execute on the schedule given at the presentation yesterday you won't have to wait until 2016 to see a serious ramp in the stock price.
Assuming good results of course.
My own view is maybe a double in the lead up to clinical trials, but most likely not much more than that. Though if H7N9 or MERS accelerate and testing there is successful or, for instance, the company were to get outside backing for MERS or Dengue, it could have a more pronounced affect on the stock price. Periodic fits of ebullience could certainly give us large spikes along the way as we have seen in the past.
b) Have longer-term or follow-up studies been requested?
c) Given the efficacy/side-effect profile of FluCide seen thus far in animal testing,
will the number of patients tested be relatively small while still anticipating
statistically significant results?
Have minimum numbers of patients for various clinical trial phases been discussed with FDA?
that wasn't my question, but a question I was responding to. I'm quite satisfied with where we are currently.
What I stated was fact. Feel free to rebut, but at least have something to back it up.
I am amazed that with all of the so called progress the stock price is under $1.40 per share (pre reverse split). Simply amazing. What's it going to take?
Now you're going to fault them for advance planning?
My opinion - the reward-for-risk equation may never be better than right now.
Well we'll have to agree to disagree. Though I'm still not sure how "formal tox testing with BASI" actually means "initial tox testing with KARD."
What's amusing is that this was almost exactly what was stated a year ago when we were discussing what people would think if tox was not completed in '13.
Yes, I am familiar with this terminology, I was asking BK because he was sating the GMP and cGMP requirements for the existing lab.
Flu season not required until Phase IIb.