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It's obviously that Harvey wanted to maintain control of the company and this was why the shareholders rights document, aka poison pill, was implemented. The stated tax information was all spelled out specifically at the time they did it. Understanding the change of control rules for tax purposes would be useful prior to asserting that the poison pill was executed to prevent someone from buying the company solely for the tax loss carry forwards. That was niether the stated nor actual reason.
That is not the reason why it was put in place. It was put in place so that a bottom feeder hedge fund couldn't come in and buy the company at the Low price after the crash. That's the real reason. The stated reason was so that the change of control provisions i n the tax code wouldn't get tripped making the tax loss carry forward worthless. It was not to prevent a company from buying Ariad solely for the tax credits.
So I guess the answer is zero. Zero people publically stated that this would never go below 8 again. Now that we have that cleared up......
I don't know one post that said it wouldn't go below 8 dollars again.
And why would these companies be buying then. Why buy the stock of you don't think there is some possibility of appreciation
I've heard the devil is in the details.
But why given their current cash plus 100 million of additional debt available and why would it cause a billion dollar decline in market value.
Five dollars of stock price equals 1 billion dollars. Why would the price prediction go down 5 dollars for dilution unless they offered 1 billion of stock. Also they have another 100 million of debt financing available under their recent agreement. Why do they need to dilute again before 2016?
Of course U do
Ur not the only person who looks at this with a critical eye
Ok the stock has a floor of ten but we trade at 7. Just because people are here for the hopes of a buyout doesn't meant that a) any company wants to buy us or b) management is willing to sell. Denner doesn't have full reins on this company and just because 99% of the board expects a buyout does t mean the stars will align and we will get one. I don't know why I'm debating a floor for ariad's price of 10 while we trade at 7s. Yes yes. We all know everyone thinks this is worth so much more but the view that nothing can drive us down, by many, is what got so many people in trouble back when we were at 25 and everyone knew Pona would be first line in cml and our stock price would rocket even further. Things don't always pan out.
No it's not a contradictory statement at all. How do you know there is anyone else is there who is going to make and offer to buy it. Your assertion relies on the fact that there is another buyer that will come. You don't know that. And the market for well over 2 years has said this company is worth less than ten when a buyer or the rumor of a buyer isn't there. All one has to do is look at the stock price today to know there is no ten dollar floor to the stock price.
I agree that ariad management won't sell for less than 10 but that doesn't guarantee they will sell for more. It can just as easily mean they won't sell at all.
The assertion that buy out offer set an upper limit of 10 dollars on Ariad is as absurd as another individual's assertion that it set a 10 dollar floor. The price predictions on this board are made with unwavering certainty and each and every time the prognosticators are proven wrong.
We don't know that another offer will be made. This company didn't want to go higher than 10 so how can we conclude that any other company will.
I think you might be right
Ever is been a very long time. There is a lot of material out there. I think we could find worse.
I'm happy with a 15 dollar buy out target today esspecially in light of the downward pressure from a market perspective which could solidify in the short term. If we got 20 bucks Id do cartwheels. But I don't see 20 now. Maybe down the road if we get some wins from our trials.
Seems to me if baxalta made an offer of 10 ish a month ago which was rejected and the talk about it is just heating up now it's because the offer isn't dead and baxalta is looking to up the anty. Otherwise they would just say, we made an offer and it was rejected. End of story.
For those who are long this stock who don't believe the company has viability as a stand alone and want a buy out but also think this buy out wont happen I would think they would sell their shares today and get out. To not do so, if one holds all those other views I just mentioned, would not be logical.
Oh something just got real. Did we just spike to 10. This thing must have some legs
Yea. Not sure how dilutive the warrants are on our debt but based on the market cap per yahoo right now 3 billion would be 15 to 16 bucks per share. I'd
Take that in a heart beat today sock it away in cash. Wait however many months for the heavy market correction then buy back into new stocks.
Volume is good. Just saw the speculation of the buyout. Maybe we can talk then in 3 billion instead of 2.
There is a news leak somewhere. Likely something positive coming out very soon that got leaked. The spike is too pronounced to not be tied to something.
Looks like the dooms day predictions for ARIAD and Denner won't come true today. We are down a dime now. Looks like the predictions of margin calls on Denner didn't come true.
Neutral with a price target that would be a 20% increase over the current stock price. Now that's a neutral rating I'll take.
The patient you are quoting by your own ommissino isn't even on an ARIAD drug. There is no proof of ARIAD patients that despise Ariad. It doesn't really seem relevant to quote patients who don't use the drug with a big headline saying "Even Patients despise Ariad" Seems very misleading.
Still invested just don't have anything to say. Sitting back and waiting to see what develops. Don't read the board religiously anymore as I just got warn out on arguing. Hopefully we get some developments or at least insights into some developments soon.
All I can tell you is look at the buyouts that have been taking place. Counterpoint
No chance for a buy out because it's easy to raise capital? Should we assume that all biotech buyouts will come to a grinding halt? Isn't a buyout the strategy for many biotechs. It's the end game not the solution to a cash problem.
Agree fully with your stated position.
The Nasdaq is above 5000 and the S&P is nearly 2100. What conformation signal are you looking at that says the market is in a correction.
In light of the fact that we were down a below average volume with no negative news either real or rumored please explain how today's price action constitutes a bear raid, other than all Ariad price decrease needing to be blamed on some form of evil 3rd party doing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bear_raid
There is no way of knowing 99% of the speculation that goes on this message board. Why should asserting that there is turmoil on the Ariad board of directors be treated differently than other speculation. Also, this assertion, while speculation isn't that far of a stretch. It's certainly plausible. If one had to provide evidence of each assertion posted on this message board then all the commentators accusing shorts of manipulating the price would have to really pony up a lot of real evidence instead of mere specuLation over the disdain for price decreases.
I doubt Denner waited to start the search until Harvey stepped down and i doubt they are doing a "search" through a search agency. This is about who you know.
I think they are pushing it to a date where they will have a new CEO confirmed. It would be extremely odd to have Harvey at the helm for this meeting.
Also means few buyers
If the CEO of a company with a 2 billon dollar market cap was also doing time in the lab then I know why the company was failing. That's not a CEOs job. A CEO needs to be a leader, innovative, a steward of resources. You can't be all things and if Harvey was doing work on the micro scope he was not focusing his efforts in the right area.
Anyone believing that ariad is fully valued at this point with risk to the downside would not be invested in the stock. Period. End of story.
Correct no profits which is why your reference to a PE ratio made no sense.