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Two Things About A Possible Recovery (1300 Likely)
SP,
This could be a good thing but only if the fundamentals overtake the current government and those in favor of FIAT and paper. Sadly, stupid economic policies can often outlast one's ability to hold what they have. This can be especially true in a terrible economy as we have now in America.
Fundamentally, one would see silver and gold being the most logical choice in this environment. Yet, people are doing exactly the opposite.
I am thinking two things can reverse what we now have. One, somebody in an official office actually says the word "inflation." Two, this artificial bubble we are seeing in the markets shows some signs of popping.
What makes this hard is those in power will lie, hide the truth, and deceive in order to keep their world view of economics going. Kind of reminds me of the following statement mostly attributed to Edmund Burke:
"The Only Thing Necessary for the Triumph of Evil is that Good Men Do Nothing."
Wondering About Short As Well
Yes, I have been wondering when the shorts will start covering as well. Also been wondering when the physical demand that should be coming from this will take place.
Bad news out of China is not going to help this perfect storm; this is for sure. Also, as long as gold is free falling at this rate, I do not see any real pressure for shorts to cover. As long as they see more and more profit, they are likely to all it to continue.
As for this happening on tax day, that is an interesting aspect I did not consider. Also, I think today is the day many expect North Korea to do something.
Gold Below 1400 and Dropping
Gold in 1390 range and silver in low 23 range.
BBC reporting raid by cyber thieves dropping Bitcoin down to $100 range. Thieves in this case are likely backed by one government or the other. Suddenly, it seems some powers are really attacking any major competition with FIAT.
Honestly, I do not think all this is coincidence. Personally, might as well keep what little physical I have. They may be worth more as gifts if this stupidity in the market continues.
Cannot help but wonder how much naked shorting is taking place as well. Why not, nobody is going to do any regulation anyway. :) MF Global ring a bell.
Price Continue Downward - Interesting Monday
Gold in the $1430s area and silver in the $24 area. Down, down, down they go and where they stop is really hard to know.
Wonder if the bullion banks are taking advantage of this or just waiting it out a bit. Personally, I think the Chinese are loving it.
Sure They're Not (Grin)
SP,
Yea, who in their right mind would buy in this down market? :)
(Sarcasm of course)
Draghi's Statement To Cyprus - Possible Downside Catalyst
Personally, I do think Cartel action is part of the reason for the huge downside move in gold and silver. Nothing is fundamentally new in this arena. Yet, I think one needs to see this video on Kitco.com which deals with Draghi's unofficial mandate for Cyprus to sell it's gold in order to get the funds it needs.
The speaker thinks this is the major reason for the huge selling spree this past Friday. He also thinks investors may see this as a template for other weak European countries, and thus the negative domino effect could be quite bad. Even if it does not happen, the possibility of it happening could damage the gold market.
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/Reset/283/2013-04-12/Reset-Draghi-Did-It-April-12-2013
Bitcoin, PMs, and Yelling for Taxes
Interesting to me that Bitcoin and precious metals were damaged this week. Both are considered alternate currencies by many and both have been damaged this week.
Now, you have to look at the serious cries for more tax revenue by governmental authorities. You have to look at what just happened to Amazon, and how the case could easily go to the Supreme Court. You have to look at the idea being presented in Congress now that would possibly require online sellers to charge the state taxes from the buyer no matter where he or she lived.
If you are wanting to tax everything, and know you are getting the taxes, you can't have things like Bitcoin, silver, and gold out there acting as alternate currencies. Also, you cannot have people holding a lot of precious metals under the radar and having all that value without being able to know and tax them. Things like this just wouldn't do.
So, what do you do in such a case. I guess you could say the banks can control the finances of people and the government can control the banks. Hey, what if the government and the banks worked in unison for the same cause yet with different motives. Everyone is happy - that is everyone but the poor old American citizen.
Seriously, with satire aside, I think the crushing of precious metals and other alternate currencies is not accidental. If you want extreme power, you need to control the finances of people. If you want a top heavy Socialist government, you cannot have strong elements of a fair, competitive, Capitalistic market present. By all means, you cannot have a strong, independent Middle Class present either.
Personally, I think the price action today stinks. I know the fundamentals are for gold and the powers that be seem to be against it. Sad thing is the bad guys tend to be winning right now.
If gold recovers above a certain amount I am looking at, I think I will finally relent and sell. I have held off many times, but I think things are becoming a bit more dire. This can be seen in the blatant actions of the Cartel, and related parties, who seemingly have disregard for actions and no fear of accountability.
All this said, I am going to try and be optimistic. Yard sales and Goodwill await me if all goes well today, and maybe I will find some treasures - even if they are worth a bit less now than before.
Peace Out - White Cobra
Good Thing My Gold Is Limited
One thing I remind myself of is that my gold holdings are just a few Troy ounces with the real money in jewelry pieces which should not be too effected by this today.
I will need to check the spreadsheet, but I think my silver is less than 60 Troy ounces with a few pieces being worth much more than spot.
I hate to see days like today, but I remember that I am in at pennies on the dollar when I compare my actual costs to spot value. Until today, my percentage of actual value versus my costs was a bit over 400%.
Yet, as I have said, I was counting on some decent spot prices to help with Federal taxes, health costs, and school again in the Fall. Luckily, I have not limited my new hobby to precious metals. I have also picked up some other items which should exceed my PM sales when they are sold.
Even I know you need to diversify. Tough I am taking a hit today, all is not lost.
Peace My Friends.
Wondering About Something - Odd Idea
One4theroad,
I am inclined to agree with you at this point. As I have said before, fundamentals do not drive the markets as much as sentiment does. Yesterday, I posted a link showing the reasons why one should buy gold and silver, but I am starting to rethink this whole setup.
As much as I love precious metals, I am starting to think their value may become something a bit different than some are proposing.
Might it be that large, powerful governments are going to hoard gold and make it valuable more as a currency backing than anything else? In short, gold and silver may be used to back their currencies in an official manner while being made worth much less to the average person holding it?
Is It Over?
Gold down over $50 and silver with it. As much as I do not like to say it, rumors about the demise of precious metals are becoming true.
I know that fundamentally we should be stacking, but days like today really hurt the small guys like me. I saved in hopes of selling and maybe paying off my taxes and going back to school. I am starting to think I should have sold most of what I have.
I am not as rich as most on this board and thus today's actions really have me concerned. Support levels have been shattered and I do not think they are likely to recover any time soon.
Need More Reasons?
Check out this nice little article I ran across showing reasons why you would want to be in silver and gold.
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/what-more-do-you-need-to-know
Must Read This To Totally Understand Current Slump
Look at the precious metal powerhouses the Fed leaked the FOMC minutes to early yesterday. Also take note how the rally stopped yesterday afternoon at almost the EXACT time the minutes were leaked.
Here is the link to Zerohedge:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-10/fed-releases-names-early-fomc-minutes-recipients-include-employees-goldman-barclays-
Also, the Turd covers this and a bit more here:
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/4632/despertion-time
Interesting this leak also happened at the same time Cyprus and Japan were influencing the market.
If you had any reservation that corruption and manipulation weren't the norm, I just do not see how you can continue to believe it now.
Learned Something About The Reactions
SP,
I have a testing kit to test gold, silver, and platinum. It is the basic version with a scratch stone and the various solutions.
I knew that different metal combinations resulted in different colors when testing silver, but I was not exactly sure which colors denoted which metal. Luckily all the silver I have test, marked .925 or better, has test out dark red. I do have a few pieces which are 80%, and if I do recall one I tested resulted in a brown color.
If I had the money, I would test using this x ray method:
I Love That Black Hue
SP,
You had to be beside yourself when you realized that black hue was the real thing. Bet you aren't regretting that $50 purchase price now. :)
I love to see that black hue on pieces - especially when others do not realize what it signifies. When it shines, people are more apt to realize what it is and keep it. For me, the darker the better seeing how darker tends to denote nicely aged pieces.
Grey is good but black is better.
Does anyone know why some silver coins rainbow tone instead of tarnishing grey or black?
Maybe I Should Have Sold
SP,
I am starting to think that I should have sold some of my finds. The last thing I need short term is for silver and gold to take a nose dive and not recover for a good while.
Saw Those Yesterday
SP,
I eyed those yesterday seeing I had a credit on my account. Opted for a nice Gemoro Triplet LED Achromatic Loupe instead. Though I would have liked the Libertad, I chose something more functional for on growing hobby.
Actually, I have never owned a Libertad. They look like striking coins.
BTW, I am reading mixed views on spot price this week. Personally, I think the Cartel was trying to drop the price even further last week but the bad economic numbers on Friday crimped their efforts. If this is correct, probably will see downside pressure. If not, I think things will stay range bound.
Staggering Information There - Nice Article
SP,
"State-Wrecked: The Corruption of Capitalism in America," is a thorough article and an eyeopener. Great post on this one.
Fears Are Confirmed
I stated over the weekend that I felt a raid was coming. I missed it by about a day, but all the same it is here.
Both silver and gold have been gutted and are still dropping. News of Chinas economy possibly strenghtening and other fuzzy numbers are not really helping precious metals. Granted, I am not selling anything at this point. In fact, if I can, I may try to pick up some junk silver at discounted prices. Might as well see if I can take advantage of the manufactured panic selling.
Do wish I had sold a bit of my gold to counter the tax man while gold was above $1600. Nobody's error but my own. Now, I will just have to wait and see how long it takes to get back in that area. Personally, I do not think it will be all that long. As usual, watch Europe.
I Have Posted On Universal Digital Currency
WER123,
I have posted before about what my long term views of the economy are. I have said that I foresee a world standard economy which will one day be all electronic.
Just think about the arguments that will be made for it. The people behind it will point out all the corruption it will help stop. Illegal drug money and the atrocities of the drug cartel will be curtailed. Tax monies needed to help with programs for the poor and unemployed will be gained by closing avenues where taxes are not present (cash transactions, etc.) Countries that are too rich and well off will be forced to give some in order for the remainder of the world to have a better standard of life.
Plus, think of all the other corruption and crime it will help eliminate. Heck, not to agree with the powers that be would be a crime and make you seem like a selfish person with nothing but ill will towards the good of the whole.
Downside is that individual freedom with have to be given to the government in return the overall benefits. At some point, those opposed will not be allowed to buy or sell anything. So, I feel at this point even having silver and gold will not be the best answer if one is not able to buy or sell it. Food, water, and the ability to hide will be key.
Here is an article you may be interested in:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/currency/6152204/UN-wants-new-global-currency-to-replace-dollar.html
At one time, the link to the UN document worked and in it you could clearly read where there was a call for a new world currency. If I find the updated link I will try to post it.
More Sellers Avoiding E-Bay
I spoke to a lady yesterday who runs her own reselling business of things like clothes and the like. She said she once sold on E-Bay but things have gotten so that she no longer does this.
Personally, I think I am going to go ahead and escalate my selling dates on most of my items. Three reasons are present for me doing this. One, I want the Fed paid off early. Two, it looks to me like silver and gold are in some really questionable waters. And finally, the decision that has been handed down against Amazon.
If you have not heard, Amazon is now going to have to charge tax on items sold in New York state despite the fact they do not have a physical building in the state. Reportedly, there is also a push in Congress to pass a law requiring taxes to be charged on items sold to parties in other states. From my understanding, this would mean I would have to collect the sales tax for a Morgan silver dollar I sold to someone in California though I live in NC and sold the item in NC.
Thus, I will likely see if I can sell most of my better items before such a stupid and unconstitutional law is passed. Sadly, after the health law fiasco, I have little confidence in our Supreme Court.
Now May Be The Time
Milo3,
I am up quite late tonight (3:46 a.m. EST). Silver is down .34 to $27.98 making the $28.00 level fall. I said I suspected there would be raid and it seems I am correct at this point.
If this continues, hate to see what happens as Monday progresses. Once again, gold seems to be holding it's own. I think the thinner volume on silver, versus gold, just makes it too easy of a target.
Also, remember that if the markets were fair and not manipulated, this would mean that all over the world market participants just suddenly figured silver was worth .34 less than just this past Friday. Just something to consider I guess.
I Look For A Raid Tonight / Tomorrow
Personally, I expect a raid to the downside of silver tonight and even into tomorrow.
SP - Pictures Not Showing
SP,
The listing is there but E-Bay is saying no pictures have been uploaded. May check into this. Also, I am going to have some people check my upcoming listings to ensure they are actually showing.
If E-Bay isn't going to work, I will have to find other avenues.
BTW, Happy Easter to you and everyone here.
Coin Searching Vs Thrift Store
Okay, another 2000 half dollars and no silver. I am not pleased, but such is coin roll searching (CRH). This being said, still hold out some hope for my first doubled die from CRH.
That was the negative news. Positive news is I scored on the second grab bag today (didn't do so well on an earlier one this week). For my $16.05, I ended up with a nice 14k signed bracelet weighing 2.75 grams ($82.39 at current spot). Also found a nice Spanish type sterling cross and an Irish hallmarked pendant which is also sterling. Total silver value on them is $16.26, but I feel each piece will easily sell over spot. So, pure silver and gold value alone are $98.65. Not a bad day.
I literally walked into the store and caught the assistant manager coming out of the back room with the small vase full of odds and ends (i.e. the grab bag). Knowing there was another two active buyers in the store (friendly competitors), I quickly followed and asked to see the vase as it was being placed into the display case. I think God had me there at the exact moment I needed to be there to get the grab bag. If I had been a minute or two later, literally a minute or two, it is likely the other buyers would have had it. Such coincidence just isn't coincidence to me.
Must Have Went Quick
SP,
Checked early Saturday morning and did not see any listed. So, they must have gone fast.
That Has Crossed My Mind
XJag,
The thought of no jobs after my schooling has crossed my mind. Yet, most of my experience is in Logistics and SAP. In Western North Carolina, factories have not fared so well. In fact, I spoke to my first cousin who now resides in Charlotte and she told me things do not look good there either; factories are closing left and right.
I do not wish to go back into a dying field. Thus, I am thinking Information Technology. I have always tended to be the computer geek to some degree, and I have done well by it. Granted, modern IT is quite difficult but I need to at least try.
Could the field be dead in two-years? Yes, that is possible. Yet, I need to do what I think offers the best chance at future stability. I would love to run my own business, but I do not have the capital that would be needed to even attempt this. I have done okay on E-Bay and will likely continue that venue. This being said, I am learning that word of mouth and local sales are avenues I should not overlook. I have to Coach purses I have found and was going to see them on E-Bay. Turns out, I can probably sell them locally and make just as much. In regards to silver and gold, still think E-Bay is going to be the better venue.
Will Take This Into Account
One4theroad,
I will need to check with state Board of Education here in NC and see if there is anything there; I have not checked there as of yet. As for scholarships,there are the two offered by the college I mentioned earlier.
Back in the late 80s, I took what financial aid I could get. I also worked approximately 25-30 hours a week while juggling my full-time class load. Back then, research dominated the majority of my time and things like the Internet were a blip on the screen at best. Now, as a student, most research is electronic. Bibliographies are a breeze, and some classes do not require a physical presence. Man, I would have loved to have all this back then.
Moving on to the situation with your Morgans, I can understand your frustration. I have saw similar mentalities at some of the pawn shops in my area. Might I ask exactly how much you were looking to get? Both I and WER123 like Morgans.
In fact, I understand that the London market will be closed Friday and Monday thus not having the London Fix present. Also, I understand that futures activity is likely to have down pressure on silver as well. I think there will be a major shove to the downside on silver with the light volume and the Comex being the major venue. Just too easy for JP Morgan and other commercials to raid the market and add millions to their coffers.
So, if silver does drop as low as $27, one might want to take advantage of the dip. As for gold, I do not see much pressure on it for a while. Too much international pressure.
Problem Is Previous Degree
WER123,
One problem I am facing is my B.A. in Communications. The four-year degree makes it difficult to obtain financial aid for a lower Associates degree.
This noted, their financial aid office did tell me of two scholarships I should be able to obtain. If I am correct, they are probabaly available due to a county-wide tax hike specifically for the growth of the institution I am planning on attending. Our tax rate increased from .0675 to .07 in my county to help raise the aforementioned monies.
BTW, tomorrow I should be getting two boxes of half dollars from my bank. Maybe I will find enough silver halves, or valued numsimatic halves, to help build up my funds. I hope so. I spend a bit of money this afternoon on a junk jewelry "grab bag" and only turned up a small sterling cross and chain. Paid $16.05 and only found about $3.00 in silver. So, not all buys are profitable but most are worth the gamble.
XJAG - I Have Thought Along Those Lines
Yes, I have already started to think along the lines of finding other items to buy low and sell high. The problem is that more and more people are doing this than when the economy was better - at least it seems that way to me.
Recently, I purchased some dishes for $12.84 (tax included) and turned around $285 of clear profit on them. They turned out to be a rare pattern of a very well known maker. I am trying to learn the book market seeing how I am in a prime location for books. Within about 13 miles of my home are a small Goodwill and a huge Goodwill Retail Outlet. Also, I have already located some other venues I think could be beneficial for books.
As for cashing the IRA, I have decided to go back to college this Fall. Seeing how a Masters or another Bachelor's degree does not make sense at this point, I have decided to pursue an Associates Degree in an IT related field. The college I plan on attending is well-established and highly accredited.
After filling out the FAFSA, and determining what financial aid I may qualify for, I will likely cash some of the IRA out. My unemployment will end as of July 1st and I will have to live off of savings or a part-time job if I can. Of course, a good full-time job still trumps just about everything. Yet, I would still like to get back in school if possible.
Thanks for the advise my friend. I do appreciate it.
Seems To Be The Trend
I think adding more and more work to fewer and fewer people is becoming the norm. I know at my former place of employment of 21 years, it really took that direction the last two or three years I was there. Also, talking to others working at local companies, I am hearing this to be the case more and more as of late.
Personally, if I could, I would find a way to retire now. I just do not see many opportunities in the job market anymore where stress will not be double of that before and job stability be much less than before.
I am tempted to take a bit of my regular IRA and move it to another IRA where I can trade stocks, etc. Also, I am wondering if a partial withdrawal does not make sense seeing I am currently unemployed and will not likely be in such a low tax bracket for some time to come if I find a decent job. If so, the withdrawal would be for college or be a movement to a ROTH IRA.
I keep wondering about silver and gold. I do think there will be some increase going into May and then likely a sell-off leading to a drop in prices. I am basing this more on cyclical patterns more than anything else. Until something happens to slow the investments and stocks, I see more downside pressure for the PMs.
Makes One Question The IRS
Did anyone see the news on the "Star Trek" and "Gilligan's Island" training films the IRS just made at a cost of around $60,000? At a time when they are asking for more people and money due to shortages, they are able to spend money on television theme training videos.
Makes me think the almost $3000 I owe them is a really bad was to lose some money. Also, seems like we are still going to spend hundreds of millions to nations who wish to destroy Israel.
Also, did you read about Cyprus?
Okay, time to store up on food, medical supplies, and things useable to defend them from others if necessary. Gold and silver are also things to have IMO.
Hey - Maybe I Should Run For Office
WER123,
You are so correct on paying off debt. Why am I hurting myself and doing this when all the rage is to do the exact opposite.
I should run for office, shun all financial responsibility, and live like a king for the remainder of my life. From what I hear, even former Congress and Senate members receive a set salary for the remainder of their natural lives.
Talk about a nice setup.
Heck, seeing how I like PMs so well, I guess that eliminates my possible candidacy.
Yes - I Plan On Adding Some Morgans
WER123,
After I get some gold sold, and hopefully pay off some Federal taxes, I plan on converting some of my future sterling sales into Morgans.
In addition to the Morgans, may also try to add some fractional gold pieces. Right now though, priority is setting up a payment schedule with the Fed and knocking out the debt asap.
I am a bit old fashioned in that I do not like to owe money to anyone or any organization if possible - especially the Fed.
Depends on Public Perception I'm Afraid
Though the Cyprus debacle was indeed a very bad move, it's effects may be limited by the public's perception. Likely, it will be buried, or downplayed, by most US media and the mirage of normalcy will continue for a bit longer.
Granted, though possibly ignored by the masses in America, it may not be so ignored by the rest of the world.
Also, as a side note, I think it is a good idea to look at any speaker and understand his or her demographic audience and what he or she may need to say to keep that audience. Whether it be Sprott, or Obama, I try to keep in mind who they really have to keep happy and how that might influence their content.
This being said, I think the mentioned raid is more than coincidental. Also, I think the decision may have influenced Bern's decision to possibly get out. This being said, I do not think Cyprus within itself is the whole reason he may be exiting.
Thanks For That Bit of Information
TooFuzzy,
Thanks for that bit of information. The way I understood it, the taxes and penalties applied. It is good to know that only the taxes apply and not the penalty.
Right now, I plan on continuing to add to my regular IRA until my overall financial situation improves. Also, before converting to a Roth IRA I would like to have my residence about 30 miles north of where I live; this would place me in Tennessee versus North Carolina. Like Texas, Tennessee does not have state income tax though their property taxes are a bit higher than NC.
Hmmm... Let Me Clarify Here
TooFuzzy,
I was not trying to infer that trading small price movements on a group of stocks was the only thing one should do with an IRA or 401K. I was only trying to point out it is an option a number of traders are now using a bit more frequently.
I would suggest a person with a decent 401k / IRA divest their money into different vehicles and sectors. One may purchase stocks in utility companies, medical companies, and gas companies while also owning gold and silver backed stocks as well. The same person could also take a designated amount of the funds and trade small price swings in a researched group of stocks and also make money.
There could be a family of 20 to 30 stocks in the $4 to $10 range. The investor could buy these stocks, set up sell orders for .20 to .30 gains, and then reinvest the profits back into the same stocks or other stocks in the group. Research would have to be done daily, and free ride violations would have to be avoided. Yet it can be, and often is, done today by a number of traders and investors.
By trading on a very short time frame, the person is not holding such stocks for the long term. Also, by using an number of stocks any losses are likely offset by the overall gains.
Once again, I am only suggesting this as part of an overall investment strategy.
I hope this helps clarify what I was originally trying to relate.
Another IRA Option
I spoke to a financial adviser a few months ago about the options they offered for an IRA. He told me I could move my current IRA to his firm and then the monies could be allocated to physical and gold holdings.
As decent an idea as this was, I still like the option mentioned here earlier. To avoid fees, I would try to move the 401k to a regular IRA where you could trade paper on a small spread. You could also use some of the funds to trade stocks with some fairly consistent volatility like FORD. For a very long time, I noticed that Ford stock reached about .20 higher than it's open at some point during the day. It may seem trivial, but the principle behind small swing trades on fairly consistent stocks is not a bad one.
If you can take the tax hit, I would suggest moving the 401k to a Roth IRA. The problem with this, as I understand it, is that you will pay huge penalties. The upside is that the monies you can place in the 401K will be tax free upon retirement. Also, getting to your principle investment without large penalties is a bit easier.
Just Noticing Silver Lagging Behind Gold Rise
Gold has easily broke $1600 but it seems silver cannot break $29 and stay there. Normally, I think we would be seeing silver above $29 at this time.
I have read that silver is a bit easier to manipulate than gold due to the numbers, and types, of participants.
I really would like to see silver over $29 and closer to $30. Need to finally liquidate some sterling due to Federal taxes.
I Question What Catalyst Will Be Necessary
SilverEagle,
Like I have said before, I do not think the Cartel is going to be overtaken unless some large catalyst takes place to allow it. You have JP Morgan, and others, with inside information and the ability to use paper at will to drive the price of silver and gold up and down at will.
In addition to this, you have an administration that seems more than willing to help them do this illegal activity. One of the last things the Obama administration wants is to see gold and silver skyrocket in price. If this happens, all the money being put into stocks and bonds will likely move to precious metals and this bubble we are in will pop.
The stories released, and Bernanke's timed comments, just seem to well timed to drive the prices down in most situations. Also, whoever is making the millions upon millions of dollars from the manipulation isn't likely to stop it anytime soon unless forced to by a great power.
I am not sure if they will ever be overtaken. It would take a huge catalyst for this to happen, and I am starting to wonder if the catalyst needed would not wipe out the value of silver and gold by having everything else so expensive it could not be afforded.
Not Surprising About E-Bay
Eik,
That does not surprise me about E-Bay. They know they are losing their chunk of change if you are able to get the buyer to use PayPal and bypass the listing process.
Did you include the words payment or PayPal in your e-mail? They may also be triggers to prevent your message from going through.