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I briefly read their press release. looks like they made lots of money through increased valuation of loans acquired from FDIC assisted acquisitions and from lowering bad loan reserves. Wonder how much was attributed to the UWBK portfolio? No wonder the per share value is over $212 and climbing. My oh my, the weight of all those bad assets from FDIC assisted acquisitions is such a heavy burden, isn't it.
Get well soon VC :)
So what made you buy back in for 100k shares knowing the appeal was dropped?
Well he did have a fire side chat with Jamie Dimon, does that count?
I am not too concerned about Chapter 7 vs 11, but I am much more concerned about who is driving the bus now.
FS,
These regulatory agencies have been ranking management on a scale from 1 to 5 as recently evidenced by JPM management getting lowered a few notches (to 3 as a result of the whale) by regulators. So if they are ranking management, that means that they are most likely using these ranking in determining when a bank is seized, irrespective of the capital ratings or CRP plans. My guess is if they rank management at a 5 then look-out bank, there is a seizure on the horizon (law be damned).
Given how much the FDIC gave JPM in the WAMU heist, the FDIC can just ask them for a "favor". Nothing surprises me with these people.
Anyone else notice the difference between the UWBK trustee and the trustee in the WAMU case?
In the WAMU case the Trustee was a stool pigeon for the debtors who were anti-equity, in the UWBK case the Trustee is antagonistic toward the debtor who is pro-equity.
I should note in the WAMU case the first US Trustee saw what the debtors were up to and stood up to them, but he was soon forced out by the Power Brokers and replaced by a Stool Pigeon.
you noticed how the judge used the "generally" weasel word in her decision when discussing the 45 days. What a bunch of crap.
Given the close relationship JPM has with the FDIC, I would not put it past the FDIC to pressure JPM to object to this plan and help FDIC convert this to a Chapter 7. They are the bully on the block.
Seems to me FDIC would love to see UWBK liquidated via Chapter 7. Then they would argue in the DC court that UWBK does not have standing because the entity no longer exists. Going the chapter 11 route with a POL ensures that there is a legal entity that survives to continue the fight.
I will go with .36
I am assuming that a filing can still be made after market closes and before the end of the day so that may keep the price down.
Anyone else notice oddity with the bid/ask? On ameritrade, the bid number is greater than the ask and has been for at least an hour.
I picked up some 60k shares in the last two days. Got my fingers crossed :)
You guys do realize that 11/14 is just one day before the BK extension expiration. I suppose the debtor will be ready with two PORs, one with victory baked in and one with loss baked in.
It seems there are a number of Wamu holders here (including myself). Wamu has been an eye opening experience so while I do hold quite a few shares of uwbkq, I am not setting my expectations very high on the outcome. Question is does this judge have the guts to stand up to a powerful organization and rule based on law and what is right? It appears that the 5th amendment is out the window these days....time will tell...
JPM Financial Analysis
For those of you who do not have access to the Ghost Board, here are some financial analysis graphs that illustrate just how much JPM has benefited from the take down of WAMU. All the data in these graphs is from JPM 10Q/10K filings.
First graph is the balance sheet. Notice the upward trend in total assets since the WAMU take down in Q3 2008.
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/JPM%20Net%20Income%20By%20Quarter.jpg
This next graph is Net Income by quarter. Again, notice the trend since the WAMU purchase from the FDIC.
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/JPM%20Net%20Income%20By%20Quarter.jpg
I we graph all revenues and expenses, you will see that JPM is an interesting trend of increasing non-interest expenses after the 3Q 2008 takedown of WAMU.
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/JPM%20Revenue%20&%20Expenses%20By%20Quarter.jpg
And if we drill down into what is causing the increasing expenses, we see that JPM had record comepnsation expense in the 1Q 2011.
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/JPM%20Non%20Interest%20Expenses.jpg
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/WAMU+JPM%20Compensation%20Expense.jpg
So why is JPM Net incoming increasing so much since the WAMU purchase? Well this graph below which shows the JPM Loan Loss reserves by quarter is part of the reason.
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/WAMU+JPM%20Loan%20Loss%20Allowance.jpg
But by far, the most important graph of all, is this one. It shows JPM Shareholder Equity by Year and Quarter.
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/JPM%20Shareholder%20Equity%20By%20Component.jpg
Focus on the line called "Reatined Earnings". Since JPM purchased WAMU in 3Q 2008, Retained Earnings increased by $24B dollars.
Now keep in mind that JPM was founded in early 1800s and it took them over 200 years to reach retained earnings of $54B. Then in 3
short years it increased Retained Earnings from $54B to 78B (nearly 50%). To me this is one of the most important data
point that clearly shows that JPM benefited immensely from the WAMU take down.
http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/JP-Morgan-Chase-amp;-Co-Company-History.html
http://wmish.com/docs/jpm/JPM%20Shareholder%20Equity%20By%20Component.jpg
Hey Dr Tom, good to hear from you and good to see that you are doing well.
ICCGUY, nice post and I agree with you. The other thing that is not even considered is the cost side of running the different websites. So profits made on trading would be eaten up by expenses to run the many sites.
You got that right Lower. There are 300M shares outstanding and spread between bid and ask is as much as 1 penny at times.There are no shares out there to be bought as most of the shares are in consolidated hands. I still hold all my shares and never sold a single one even with all the negativity by some on this board.
This really blows up Our_Streets theory that Shayne has been selling. If that were true, with 300M shares there would be many more trading hands since holdings would be more distributed and buy/sell decisions would be more randomized.
Wow. Lots of progress on buzz sites. Looks very professional. Still long and strong.
Automotive is in a "Cash is King" environment and the primary focus should be on cash flow and leverage ratios, not the profit or loss per share numbers.
Look at the short interest in wamuq stock. At current volume, 10 days to cover. Monday should be really interesting if news is fully disclosed in Media. Short sellers have steadily covered since September, but stll 57M shares short as of Feb 27th.
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=wamuq
It is nothing to worry about. Shovers was CFO back in 2001 when there were accounting problems and Hayes Lemmerz went through chapter 11. Has nothing to do with post chapter 11 company.
slojab, did you get in before the run? I got lucky on this one and loaded up at .028
Now nothing to do but wait to see what happens. If suppliers get help, that will lift the threat of BK and this should run much higher. I still think someone will take a run at them to gain control and will be more fuel to drive this higher.
I think you are correct that they would have to disclose that.
Slojab,
One has to consider the possibility of the revolver getting pulled. Banks are nervous as hell these days and if Liquidation value is anywhere near amount of debt (minus bonds floated), then that is a possibility. Given that we don't know the terms of the bank debt or revolver, I may have to do a little analysis later to assess that possibility.
Also remeber that in this kind of climate, book value of tangible assets does not neccessarily mean that that is how much money can be obtained in liquidation, simply because there is lots of supply and little demand complicated by inability to finance.
Listening is alot easier than reading:
http://ir.hayes-lemmerz.com/events.cfm
After listening to this conference call, I don't understand what caused the stock price to drop from 40-50 cents to current levels. Only thing that it could be is that maybe they lost access to their revolver line which would be a serious blow to liquidity.
Year end conference call will be very interesting to say the least! This puupy will either go to zero or move into the dollars range. It will not be a typical penny stock that sits below a nickel indefinately.
For those of you researching HAYZ, here is some good reading:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/81151-hayes-lemmerz-international-inc-f1q08-qtr-end-04-30-2008-earnings-call-transcript?source=bnet&page=1
This transcript was only 8 months ago. If they thought they were undervalued then, can't imagine what they are thinking now...
Maybe I will try and find the Q3 2008 transcript.
Nice try at what?
"Poor sales does not necessarily mean poorly managed"
True statement. But poor performance year over year does.
Superior Industries (SUP), a competitor of HAYZ, released thier 10K on 3/10:
Highlights of 10K for 2008:
1) Zero in Debt
2) 5.1/1 Current Ratio
3) SG&A at 3.4% of Sales!
4) $755M in Sales
5) Generated Cash in 2008.
6) 147M in Cash on Hand
7) 26M Shares outstanding and $10/share
Well Managed Company!!! Compare these numbers to that of HAYZ and you can understand why my opinion is that HAYZ is a poorly managed company.
I bought HAYZ because I see them as a prime takeover candidate. I think a fund, institution, or corparate raider with deep pockets will take control. But strategy needs to be to go after them on the equity side and the debt side so they have no outs.
Need to go into it planning on possibility of equity path failure.
slojab, I am not a paying member so I can't respond to PM.
Slojab, when did you start following this board? No wonder you stopped posting on buzz. You finally found a pink sheet company that is a SEC reporting company.
I have a long position here as a gamble. Know a great deal about this company from 10Q/10K filings and other sources. This company will follow one of three scenarious:
Scenario 1) Banks force it into Bankrupcy. Company already violated covenants once in last 6 months and renegotiated covenants. Another violation of covenants could spell doom. However, banks much more willing to negotiate because from last 10Q, I believe total liabilities exceed total tangible assets: Total Liabilities=$1390,Total Assets less Goodwill and intangible assets)= (1,490-212-90-53)= $1135. Banks would take a significant haircut in a BK. I don't believe current CEO wants BK because unlike the first time he took the company through BK, he has too much to lose this time. The other issue that makes BK unlikely is that Debtor In Possession (DIP) financing would be extremely difficult to get in current environment.
Scenario 2) Suppliers receive Loans. If Suppliers get loans from the government, or possibly pass through Loans from OEMs, then company weathers the recession/depression storm. If company survives this, can have a great future as demand for vehicles spikes due to current artificial supression of vehicle demand (i.e. lack of loans to auto buyers). Company is a major supplier of wheels to all major OEMs across the globe. With increased demand for wheels, share price should recover significantly.
Scenario 3) A change of control occurs. At current Share price it would be easy for an institution or fund to purchase enough stock to take control of the company and replace existing management team. This scenarion can actually happen in one of two ways, buying up bonds and forcing change of controll through BK process, or buying up stock at depressed levels. Because of expense and difficulty of getting DIP financing, I think the buying stock route is more cost effective. Less than $10Mill(assumes appreciation of current price) gets them control. But then they will need additional cash to run business through downturn AND may need additional cash to get captial spending back to levels that allow equipment to be maintained. But I think the cash infusion would be well worth the investment because the upside is huge.
What I am not sure about is if banks have any kind of change of control provisions in lending agreement.
In my opinion, scenario 3 would be best for current shareholders. Current management has inflated SG&A over the last 7 years compared to competitors like Superior (SUP). Prior Hayes Lemmerz management ran company SG&A at peer group average of 4% of sales, while current Management raised it to 7-8%. Company would be in much better shape had SG&A been maintained at 4% of sales over last 7 years. This is a great opportunity for a fund with a cash reserver that can help weather the current industry storm.
Get your facts straight Our_Street. The 1/400 reverse split happened at least a year or two (12/2002) before the shell was purchased by Buzz. Then again, you don't deal in facts, just your opinions.
"I don't go back that far but my analysis of the charts and what I see going on sure supports my "Shayne is selling" opinion"
You have yet to share your "analysis". Or are we expected to take your word that you analyzed the data and have come to that conclusion?
Trading windows are not defined by the SEC. Rather they are defined by company policy to protect executives from insider trading charges by the SEC and possible lawsuits.
Don't be silly. This is a reporting company and there are only certain windows that insiders can buy or sell in. Typically that window is a week or two after financials are reported so that the market has a chance to asorb the information.
Well said Graf. Our_Street takes issue with who is selling and who is buying. But in reality, when an investor buys shares, they take into consideration how many shares are issued and outstanding when they buy. So as long as there is no dillution, who is selling and who is buying is irrelevant in the sense that it does not impair the value of your shares.
Like you said, 99% of the pink companies dillute to raise money so they can keep the lights on. With buzz there has been no dillution and that speaks volumes.
Even if Sean (or Shayne per OS) has sold into the market as Our_Street claims, the bottom line is that when the investor purchased shares he knew that there were 300M shares outstanding and factored that into the valuation of the share price and the overall decision to buy. I would rather buy shares of a company knowing that there is no dillution than buy shares of a company and then find out one month later the the Outstading Shares went from 300M to 600M.
Our_Street, who ever mentioned the 26th as the date of dividend announcement Our_Street? Maybe the bashers are spending time at the Kool Aide stand?