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Thanks Jim
ZRAN on the move
Yup, I see no reason to sell.
I did spend some time reading recent IMAX news today. I'd have to agree with you about waiting. MBLX doesn't excite me.
I'm curious about the upcoming elections next year. The candidates are already bumping heads and debating. Do you think we should be looking for election hype plays soon? Example would be GERN as the key play on Stem Cells. Yes, I know I've been shorting the moves lately,but I wouldn't be opposed to buying a longer term position somewhere near $7-7.50 for surge later. I feel the odds favor Stem Cells this time. Bush will have his way no more. The key here is timing. When will the over the top election hype hit or maybe it's simply to early?
Someone e-mailed me and ask if I thought MCZ was overbought. My answer to her was that stocks which are overbought can get much more overbought. You know me, I love stocks which are hitting new highs. Always keep dancing until the music stops.
Yup, I missed the move. I'm kind of interested in IMAX. What do you think?
I feel the $2 target is in the bag. I'm now thinking higher. Earnings are next week.
That should help stocks to move even higher.
CLN a monster today
Well, from .42 to 1.42 will sure pay for much.
MCZ has sure had a nice ride from .80 to where it is now. I was away last week on vacation. Never looked at any stocks but boy was I surprised when I got home and checked. Go baby!
MVL day high
Thank you
The dollar will matter. Once the trend heads north it is then that we see this mini bubble move in the market walk into a real correction.
MCZ....Well, with 89,000 shares I can't just sit here after this move. The stock looks fairly overbought from the .78 move so I will sell 19,000 shares, lock in some profit. The rest rides.
Love it! Its up from .78 to where it is now in just days.
AAUK making a move north
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
ON Semiconductor Corp. (ONNN) said Monday it plans to buy back 30 million shares of stock over the next two years.
Based on the stock's closing price of $11.08 a share on Friday, the stock buyback will weigh in at about $332 million.
-Steve Gelsi; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
By Quentin Fottrell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
DUBLIN (Dow Jones)--Shares in Elan Corp. PLC (ELN) surged Monday after the Irish drug group and U.S. partner Wyeth (WYE) said they will start early Phase III clinical trials of AAB-001, their treatment for mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease.
With Phase III starting in mid-2007 rather than mid-2008 as previously expected, analysts say AAB-001 could potentially receive approval by the U.S. Food & Drug Administration by late-2008.
Investors liked the news, which indicates increased confidence in the Alzheimer's program. At 0915 GMT, Elan shares were up 12%, or EUR1.40, at EUR13.10 in Dublin, out performing the broader market with the ISEQ Overall Index up 0.7% at 9739.
Although Phase II is not yet complete, the two drug companies said Phase III clinical trial design will be finalized with regulatory agencies, and subject to their approval, it will begin in the second half of 2007.
NCB Stockbrokers' Orla Hartford, who rates Elan a buy, said there was "real potential" for early filing of AAB-001, adding that interim analysis of Phase II over the next three months could "transform Elan's investment case."
She said that evidence of plaque reduction on the brain by AAB-001 with statistical evidence on quality of life improvements would provide a "compelling case" for filing AAB-001 for approval after Phase II is completed.
Goodbody Stockbrokers' Ian Hunter welcomed the early Phase III, but added, "The only frustrating element for the market is that, given that the Phase II trial is ongoing, we will not get a sight of the data until early 2008."
Hunter maintains a buy recommendation on Elan, predicting "conservative" peak annual sales for AAB-001 of $2.2 billion by 2014 should the treatment get final approval by the regulatory authorities.
"The Alzheimer's market is huge," Hunter said. "It has the potential to be the next big indication for pharmaceutical companies, especially as the baby boomers come into the Alzheimer's-prone age group."
Company website: http://www.elan.com
CHICAGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
Zacks.com announces the list of stocks featured in the Analyst Blog. Every day the Zacks Equity Research analysts discuss the latest news and events impacting stocks and the financial markets. Stocks recently featured in the blog include: aQuantive, Inc. (Nasdaq: AQNT), Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT), Metabolix Inc. (Nasdaq: MBLX) and Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM).
See the latest posts to the Analyst Blog by visiting: http://at.zacks.com/?id=2673
Here are highlights from Friday's Analyst Blog:
aQuantive Being Bought by MSFT
aQuantive, Inc. (Nasdaq: AQNT) has agreed to be acquired by Microsoft Corporation (Nasdaq: MSFT) for $66.50 per share in cash, bringing the total deal to approximately $6 billion. AQNT is a leader in digital marketing, and with this acquisition, Microsoft is making a large commitment to online advertising. The deal is expected to close in Microsoft's first half of fiscal 2008, or the second half of calendar 2007.
We therefore maintain a Hold rating on the shares of AQNT and raise our six-month target price to $66.50, as we believe the transaction is likely to clear all hurdles. Because the online advertising market is extremely fragmented, we don't expect to see any antitrust delays, and believe the deal will close as scheduled.
On May 8, 2007, aQuantive, Inc. announced financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2007. Results for the quarter were strong with both revenues and EPS (earnings per share) above management's and consensus expectations. Revenue for the quarter was $142.6 million, representing an increase of 54.7% from $92.2 million reported in the same quarter last year.
Maintaining Metabolix at a Hold
Metabolix Inc. (Nasdaq: MBLX) is a biotechnology company focused on the development and commercialization of environmentally sustainable, economically attractive alternatives to petrochemical-based plastics, fuels and chemicals. We are pleased to see the company's progress with its lead technology platform, PHA Natural Plastic. The company is set to commence commercial production of Natural Plastic in the second half of 2008. However, Metabolix is several years away from achieving profitability. We maintain our Hold rating with a price target of $26.
The company's lead technology platform, Natural Plastic, is a proprietary, large-scale microbial fermentation system which has been developed to produce a wide range of naturally occurring polymers known as polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA). Metabolix's second technology platform, which is still in an early stage of development, is a biomass refinery system that uses switchgrass to co-produce both Natural Plastic and biomass feedstock for the production of ethanol or other biofuels.
Metabolix has a strategic alliance in place with Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) for the commercialization of Natural Plastic. Besides this, the company enjoys the support of the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Department of Agriculture for the switchgrass project. However, we do not see the company achieving profitability over the next several years even with the commercialization of Natural Plastic in 2008. As ADM is providing a major part of the capital required for the commercialization of the product, all profits from the joint venture will be distributed to ADM until it recovers its investment. Therefore, we believe that it will be several years before Metabolix succeeds in achieving profitability.
Dean Foods a Buy on Valuation
Management at Dean Foods (NYSE: DF) has taken definitive actions to improve shareholder value from the spin-off of TreeHouse Foods in 2005 to a $15 per share special dividend in 2007. Management has focused on the branded products business, reduced SKUs (stock keeping units), and integrated strategic acquisitions in the Dairy Group.
In 2007, management expects to complete the implementation of SAP (NYSE: SAP) throughout the company. Any relief from the expected lower price realizations in the organic milk market will dramatically accelerate earnings growth. The rating is being raised to a Buy.
The stock of Dean Foods Company has traded in a P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple range of 11.5 to 21.7 over the last five years. The stock is currently trading at 14.5 times trailing 12-month EPS (earnings per share). Despite the increased debt-to-capitalization ratio from the decision to spin-off TreeHouse Foods without any debt and the additional debt incurred to pay a special dividend, management's actions are creating a faster-growing, higher-margin company. The six-month target price of $37.25 is based on a 21 P/E multiple on our year-end (depressed) earnings estimate.
See the latest posts to the Analyst Blog by visiting http://at.zacks.com/?id=2645
About Zacks Equity Research
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
Marvel Entertainment Inc. (MVL), the New York character-based entertainment and licensing company, completed a $100 million stock buyback that was authorized last June and said the board authorized a new $200 million buyback.
Isaac Perlmutter, vice chairman and chief executive and the company's largest shareholder, won't sell any shares while the buyback is in effect, Marvel said.
The company is authorized to buy shares privately or on the open market through year's end.
Shares of Marvel, which has about 83 million shares outstanding, closed Friday at $26.25, up 28 cents.
-Robert Daniel; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com
droma, I got your e-mail and was happy to hear I helped you make some money. Lets do it again:) Good luck to you
Yup, now going for the triple:)
Well, gas prices don't seem to matter. What do you suppose will be the trigger?
Why do you say that?
I didn't say we were in a bubble so don't put words in my mouth. I just asked the question and for thoughts.
So, are we in a new stock market bubble? Thoughts?
Paul, my shorts are ONLY very short term. I only stay longer term in longs. Its much to dangerous to overstay in a short. I'm not short GERN yet but will find my spot.
Been trading it. I've been mostly shorting the pops which has worked out real well. Watching here to find my spot.
GERN setting up for a short again.
Yup, still holding and love it.
Yup, its going to soon get ugly. I'd be cashing in here.
MVL downgrade
Little Known Facts about the Payroll Employment Report
Here are a few facts that you probably do not know about the Payroll Employment Report (unless you are a regular reader of "A Dash"). You should know them, because the Fed does.
* The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not actually measure the change in jobs from month to month! We know this may seem confusing. The change in jobs is what everyone talks about, but it is not what the BLS measures. They try to estimate the total number of jobs, using survey techniques. They then compare the estimate from one month to the estimate from the next to calculate the change.
The result: They can be great at estimating the total, and still have a huge error band for the change. If you want more explanation on this point, we covered it here.
* The original report is revised for two reasons, but not because the government is cooking the books. The first reason is that many of the businesses in the survey do not send their reports in on time. What a surprise! Some businesses NEVER respond. The BLS does two revisions, based on more complete returns, and then declares the result to be final -- for a time. The second reason for revision is that the BLS sample for the survey includes only businesses that existed at the start of the year. The dynamic economy is gaining and losing businesses all of the time. The BLS eventually takes actual data from state employment offices and compares it to their own count. They adjust the methodology based upon the actual count, using something called a birth/death model.
Result #1: Anyone who claims to see "a trend in the revisions" is being fooled by randomness. You can tune that person out, and move on to useful work. The revisions reflect businesses that were late. Who knows the reason for that?
Result #2: Critics of the birth/death model generally provide a very lame analysis. Any such critic should step up to the plate and suggest a better method. The BLS takes the actual state count at the end of the year. They go back to their methods and try to improve them by building this in. Many critics do not like the need for this revision, but they have nothing better to offer.
* The so-called "internals" are also a survey result. All of the data that people talk about -- the job growth by sector, the hours worked, or whatever -- are also survey results. The error range for subsets is even greater than for the overall number, since the surveyed population is smaller.
Big-time commentators do not understand this. It is a pretty cheap shot to criticize the government, claim that revisions are political, and offer one's own view of something like a "birth/death model". The BLS economists do not go on CNBC to defend anything, so it is an easy way to look smart and sell research to institutions. Do not be fooled by this!
* We will never know the real truth--the actual change in payroll employment. The final result, entered more than a year later into official statistics will be the outcome of two surveys.
The result: Even if you knew the actual change (my old stat prof said "God whispers in your ear and tells you TRUTH") you could be seriously wrong. Why? The market is trading on the BLS survey estimate -- something that has a wide error band. This is true even though the survey is professionally designed and has a large sample.
You can test this for yourself! My long-time friend and colleague Allen Russell has assisted us in devising the Payroll Employment Game. Those of you reading this can get inside information, the actual figure entered as "truth" for this month -- 129,000 jobs. This is the result of our excellent regression model using the various key indicators charted at the PEG site. If you repeatedly enter this number as your guess, you will have the best possible result. You might even win our prize.
Conclusion
The information described here is useful because most of the Street does not get it, but the Fed does. You may not be able to guess the number in advance, but you will have a better sense for the way it is viewed in the FOMC. As we have described in detail, the Fed knows better.
http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2007/05/little_known_fa.html
I'm shorting as a hedge against my longs. As long as the dollar keeps dropping we go higher. As soon as it heads north in a big way we tank.
May 7--Could IBM lay off between 100,000 to 150,000 employees this year, which would be virtually all of its employees in the United States?
That is what a popular technology columnist, Robert X. Cringely, wrote in the latest of his "I, Cringely" pieces published on the Public Broadcasting System Web site.
He cites his "many friends at Big Blue" as telling him that part of IBM's new LEAN project is to cut 100,000 to 150,000 jobs in its Global Services division. He says last week's layoff of 1,300 employees -- eight in Rochester -- was a "rehearsal" for the coming cuts.
At the end of 2006, IBM reported having 355,766 employees worldwide, 128,000 in the United States and 4,400 in Rochester.
Rochester City Council member Bob Nowicki, who retired from IBM in 1992, said the column's predictions did not really shock him.
"With the IBM of today, anything is possible," he said this morning. "With the way they have been operating today, it wouldn't surprise me."
While the theory of IBM using LEAN to gut its workforce matched his own thoughts, Lee Conrad of the union organization trying to organize IBM workers says the 150,000 number undercuts its credibility.
"150,000 is absurd. That would be virtually every IBM employee -- including management -- in the U.S.," Conrad said this morning. "Everybody is talking about it (the column)."
His group, The Alliance at IBM, did post a copy of the column on its Web site. Conrad said the part of the column about LEAN was "right on."
Cringely wrote, "LEAN is about offshoring and outsourcing at a rate never seen before at IBM. For two years Big Blue has been ramping up its operations in India and China with what I have been told is the ultimate goal of laying off at least one American worker for every overseas hire."
While Cringely's numbers are out of line, Conrad did say his group is expecting big cuts this month and in June.
This is not the first time a Cringely piece has stirred up the technology community. In a PBS documentary called Triumph of the Nerds, Apple CEO Steve Jobs told him that Microsoft makes mediocre products.
Cringely, whose real name is Mark Stephens, has called Jobs a sociopath and Microsoft founder Bill Gates a megalomaniac. He also wrote the book, "Accidental Empires: How the Boys of Silicon Valley Make Their Millions, Battle Foreign Competition, and Still Can't Get a Date."
Short QQQQ at $46.61
Will hold longer term and may add to it.
May 4, 2007 Sentiment
Investors Intelligence Bulls 51.7 % Bears 24.7% Correction 23.6%
51.7/(51.7+24.7) = 67.67%
Four Week Average = 66.43%
A few historic dates:
7-20-98 68.42%
10-12-98 47.41%
4-3-00 67.79%
1-1-01 64.10%
4-4-01 58.91%
9-17-01 52.0%
9-21-01 48.7%
7-19-02 47.2%
7-23-02 47.2%
10-9-02 50.0%
Sideline Money Bears + Correction = 48.3%
Four Week Average = 48.75%
==============================================================