This is just a moment in time....
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ouch.
we don't want to breach 2080 on naz at close
THE MARKET + IDCC
MORNING SIZZLE IS A DUD
AM rally fizzles out.
THE MARKET
I think we have a little more downside activity to go....we haven't sat in oversold territory long enough for me to believe today's action was a buy signal or trend reversal. Today's afternoon reversal was rather swift. We were saved from a nasty end with a little pop at the end.
On the NAZ we need to break through and hold 2115 for me to believe were finished.The good news is that while we have broken through critical support of 2080 we recovered.
Let's see if we can hold that.... if not we could be looking at 1995.44 the 100 day moving average
WEEKLY OVERVIEW
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=5058900
IDCC
Took a quick plunge in the Am and hit its 50 day moving avenge then bounced off that to hit the high of the day reversing in the afternoon with A little pop at the end like the naz keeping it above water . We may still have a little weakness to go.
best to all ALLEY
Significant last hour market reversal eom/
THE MARKET + IDCC WEEK OVERVIEW
THE MARKET
Looks like the bulls went on an extended vacation this week. The elation of the December Christmas overbought rally had them reeling in ecstasy. Looks like the 'come down' from the climax took a bit of pleasure out of the act. Wow ... this is getting rather graphic...sorry no pictures.
Lets put things in perspective.
[] Limited tax loss selling in December 04....pumping up markets to overbought status.
[] No January effect..In the past Investors took advantage of the last couple of weeks of each year to unload those stocks that had disappointed them. The price action in many cases accelerated downtrends (including heavy downside volume). As a result, many individual stocks developed deeply oversold conditions; and once the “artificial” selling pressure was removed oversold technical rallies (bounces) ensued. These knee-jerk upside moves (short covering and/or short-term trading of very cheap stocks) dominated the markets activity during the first couple weeks of the New Year. Hence, “The January Effect”
[] Double-digit gains for all of the market’s leading averages LAST FEW MONTHS accelerating Nov. thru December....SO...Let's take a little profit first week no tax Consequences for 16 months.Investing mentality changing.
[] No earth shaking news to propel the markets
A few facts
EQUITY FUNDS REPORT net cash outflows totaling -$1.058 billion in the week ended
1/05/05; That makes it two weeks in a row for outflows ...
In the last two years the opposite was the case. I can't remember in the last two years when we had two weeks back to back of outflows....hummmm is this a trend reversal? http://www.amgdata.com/
MARGIN DEBT up 40% in the last 4 months of the year for Nasdaq stocks...
Careful we wouldn't want to see any margin calls
http://www.nasd.com/stellent/idcplg?IdcService=SS_GET_PAGE&ssDocName=NASDW_005923&ssSourceNo
JOBLESS CLAIMS....Up this week
NEW JOBS Not up to expectations...but not a disaster U.S. employers added 157,000
We really needed to get a solid number to reverse momentum.
TECHNICALLY SPEAKING... Ugly week.
THE NAZ...Breaking thru the 5-day 20day and today closing below the 50day moving average ... we don't want to stay below 2080 ...we did break below that today at 2076.69 . Next major support ..1995.44 the 100 day moving average.
The S&P 500 has important support at 1183, with 1172-1175 and 1160-1163 Resistance is 1193 and 1198-1200.
The Dow Support at 10,575-10,583 and 10,530-10,540 Resistance is 10,640-10,650 and 10,700-10,710.
Up trend lines have either been broken or are on shaky ground.
EARNINGS SEASON is in front of us..INTEL reports on Tuesday...so we will wait to see
Looking for a technical relief rally from overslod conditions but I suspect a turn back down unless we get some strong positive news...be careful out there...
IDCC
Same old same old...
Old Rip cashes in a few of his chips....some soothsayers arrive to read the tea leaves... Many investors follow Rips lead ... a debate ensues as to the hidden message behind the unplanned sales ... the stock looses 3.18 off its recent high from 6 trading days ago and momentum reversed.
A little TA
We broke through the 5 day moving average of 20.66
We broke through the 20 day moving average of 21.49
Key support is our 50 day moving avenge of 19.77 if we break through that it takes us to
the low 18's high 17's.
Our Average daily volume in the last 5 days has accelerated during the downturn
Candlestick charts showed a Bearish Engulfing on Friday. This occurs in an uptrend, the Engulfing depicts an opening at a new high, followed by a high volume sell-off that closes at or below the previous day’s open. This signifies that the uptrend has been hurt and the bears may be gaining strength. The Engulfing indicator is also the first two days of the Three Outside patterns.
AFTER THOUGHT
I became more of a lurker this past Spring after several years of frequently posting TA on the board. The break was needed. As I sit back and observe the recent activity of the stock and certain board members I find a comfortable predictability ... sometimes it's down right humorous... that was not meant to be condescending.
We strive to understand management never really knowing anymore then they wish us to know. Management is sometimes concealing what they themselves don't know. We speculate,hypothecate,theorize,analyze,looking for a future truth that has not arrived.
This is normal...healthy human behavior. At the end of the day....the truth shall set us free.
I am long...call it blind faith....call it practical reasoning...at the end of the day it doesn't matter what you call it....Until the arbitration outcome is disclosed we are due for some volatility. Use the weakness to your advantage. The ship is coming in....
As always your thoughts and comments are welcome.Alley
GREAT POST EOM
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL...2005 IS THE YEAR. ALLEY
TO BAD EOM
THE MARKET + IDCC
Where's my $21 shareprice
THE MARKET
EARLY MORNING RALLY lead to an after lunch sell off that left many folks taking a it on the chin with the markets closing at the lows for the day.
Technically things look pretty dismal as advance-declines were 24 to 7 negative on New York and 23 to 8 on Nasdaq, or about 3 to 1 negative. Volume was extremely heavy on Nasdaq, with nearly 2.7 billion traded, about 1.8 billion of it to the downside, or 2 to 1 negative. Up/down volume on New York was much more negative, about 5 to 1 negative, although total volume was just a little over 1.5 billion. A six-week uptrend on the Nasdaq 100 was firmly broken at the end of the day, as the indices came down through rising trendlines, moving averages and price support. The S&P also dropped below a strong initial level of support and then below its rising moving averages as well closing right at its rising trendline of the last four weeks.
Despite the fact that we have been in overbought territory for sometime the positive inflows
to funds as well as the general bullish momentum have kept us moving higher. Eventually we will hit a top the question is whether it will be at moderately or much higher prices, and will it be in December, January or later in the first quarter.
Tomorrow is an important day ... if we see a follow-through of today's action it may be a signal that we have reached our peak for now. Keep your eye on market internals to see if this is just a day or two pause, or something of greater proportions...This does not mean we have to go down tomorrow, it could simply mean we just churn sideways and go nowhere for a couple of days...
Right now be ready for the unexpected...
IDCC
Todays activity represented a moment of Healthy consolidation for the market and IDCC. We have been running in overdrive [oversold territory] for a while... All intermediate to long term indicators look positive. Short term have been due for some back and fill.
Some TA stats
RSI we have been running above 70
Nothing stays above 70 for a long period or below 30 for long period
Our intraday low in November was 15.53 that was on 9-Nov-04.
Our intraday high since then was 21.64 hit on 3-Dec-04. ............13 WEEK HIGH
MOVING AVERAGES
BEARISH INDICATOR----BROKE SECONDARY SUPPORT 21.09
Our 5 day moving average is 21.09
WE remain above our 20 day moving average of 19.48 which is positive
this could act as support.
BULLISH INDICATOR----WELL ABOVE MAJOR SUPPORT
Our 50 day moving average is 17.45-----------MAJOR SUPPORT
Our 200-Day day moving average is 17.73------- -MAJOR SUPPORT
VOLUME AVERAGES
Our 50 day average VOLUME 399,944
Our 20 day average VOLUME 590,965
Our 5 day average VOLUME 400,240 volume average backing down from the 20 day average
As to the fundamentals....the arbitration's and legal issues remain to be resolved. They still remain a major focus that will serve as a catapult to the next big move up. That is not to say that we are stuck in place. We will ebb and flow ... back and fill...until the resolutions are in place. This back and fill activity will be effected by positive and negative news from KOP as well as prevailing market conditions as seen today.
RECENT HISTORY.....
In my recent less frequent posts
From my 10/26 post
..." the wind is to our back...and THESE days may be recognized in the not to distant future as the true “buying opportunity" for interested IDCC investors
stock trading at intraday low 15.38.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4391795
In my last major post 11/10/2004 ....11 trading days later
My Headline.... LET THE GAMES BEGIN...AGAIN
It appears the long solid consolidation period may have come to an end....time is now on our side....Those interested in weighing in on the future will most likely be paying more and more in the weeks to come....
stock trading at intraday high 17.80
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4535174
We closed down a 1.00 today near the low of the day. Some additional weakness is likely in the short term which should help confirm and solidify our recent move up into a higher trading range.
19.48 looks like our next support level....no guarantees that we will hit that no guarantees that we won't pierce that.
Your thoughts and comments are apptrciated. Alley
Back to lurking.
ouch..just a momentary ruffling of the leaves.nbd
MY THOUGHTS...
MY theme tonight....
11 trading days ago
LET THE GAMES BEGIN...AGAIN.
11 trading days ago
Stock price...intraday low 15.38
It appears the long solid consolidation period may have come to an end....time is now on our side....Those interested in weighing in on the future will most likely be paying more and more in the weeks to come....
11 trading days ago...
In one of my... now.... infrequent posts I said..." the wind is to our back...and THESE days may be recognized in the not to distant future as the true “buying opportunity" for interested IDCC investors
In my post 11 trading days ago....
I identified what appeared to me to be a deliberate shift by management to develop a more succinct, proactive and strategic approach to engaging with the investing public. Preparing the public with timely guidance coupled with a stock repurchase that conveyed clear confidence in future expectations was a winning strategy. The markets lingering hidden expectations for potential downside surprises were effectively removed by this recent course of action.
The essential fundamentals remain the same. We know what we have...we know what we need to be paid for... my interest is in management more effectively cashing in on 3g and our strategic alliances. I realize that management has had set backs ....in my mind...these set backs MAY have been avoided with a more thoughtful approach to communicating.... negotiating...contracting. Having a product and getting paid for it...are two different things. I realize that may seem like an oversimplification to a complicated industry...but at the end of the day....the reality is...."what's on the bottom line."
I temper that comment ....with an additional thought....it's easy being a Monday night quarterback....calling the right plays after the game is over...is a no brainier... calling each play correctly as the clock is ticking ...takes a great coach.
Some coaches take time to develop and mature....
LET THE GAMES BEGIN...AGAIN.
11 trading days ago...
EXCERPT FROM MY POST 10/26/2004
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4391795
THE FUTURE....
We all know that the accelerated move in the stock price that many of us are anticipating is wrapped up in the resolution to our varied legal and arbitration issues. It appears by the stock price stability that the majority of the weak hands have disappeared. If this is correct our current investor base is strong and stable. As witnessed today. This bodes very well for us in the months ahead. IMHO It will not take as much energy as it has in the past to move the stock price ahead ...and more importantly there will be many less obstacles that could reverse or destabilize the progress we accomplish.
It is no longer an issue of how many years before we reach resolution; it is a matter of months...
What ever tea leaves didn't drop today....whatever weakness we may encounter...the wind is to our back...and THESE days may be recognized in the not to distant future as the true “buying opportunity" for the IDCC investor
Stock price...intraday low 15.38
----------
I have been following the board for months...long and strong.
As always your thoughts and comments are welcome. Alley
A few thoughts.... re:today + announcements.
I was relatively pleased with managements handling of the news today. It was well thought out and crafted carefully. The coordinated use of the news release, conference call and share buy back 'pr' demonstrated the company’s increased attention to a more strategic approach to communicating effectively to the public.
It is important to note that the news focused on reporting and tax issues while still disclosing the fact that we are facing a slight loss in the quarter.
"As a result of the transition in per-unit royalty reporting, the income portion of the adjustment to the valuation allowance and the Company's expectations of a non-cash current tax expense, the Company currently estimates that it will report a third quarter net loss in the range of $6 to $7 million."
In the past the headline might have read " IDCC to report a third quarter net loss in the range of $6 to $7 million". The share price would have plunged and management might have reacted after the debacle with a conference call [maybe] followed by a share buy back announcement....resulting in an anemic response.
This strategic approach to communicating is an important improvement that if maintained and developed will help insure greater investor confidence, price stability and potential share value.IMO
THE FUTURE....
We all know that the accelerated move in the stock price that many of us are anticipating is wrapped up in the resolution to our varied legal and arbitration issues. It appears by the stock price stability that the majority of the weak hands have disappeared. If this is correct our current investor base is strong and stable. As witnessed today. This bodes very well for us in the months ahead. IMHO It will not take as much energy as it has in the past to move the stock price ahead ...and more importantly there will be many less obstacles that could reverse or destabilize the progress we accomplish.
It is no longer an issue of how many years before we reach resolution; it is a matter of months...
What ever tea leaves didn't drop today....whatever weakness we may encounter...the wind is to our back...and THESE days may be recognized in the not to distant future as the true “buying opportunity" for the IDCC investor.
As always your thoughts questions and comments are appreciated…ALLEY
BEST TO ALL….
THANKS DAN EOM
IDCC AND THE MARKET
Just picked up this e mail from danielsnow...
InterDigital Announces New 2G and 3G Patent License Agreement with
Toshiba Corporation
Thanks for the heads up.... nice to see ...
A FEW THOUGHTS...MORE ON THE PHILOSOPHICAL SIDE....ABOUT IDCC AND THE MARKET
IDCC
We will get to where we want to be ...still waiting patiently for our ship to get some serious wind in her sails ...
THE MARKET
We are unfortunately plagued by an insecure world faced with outrageous acts of terrorism.
A country looking to find its way in an a contentious election exacerbated by groups of often less informed and more opinionated individuals who promote their ideology to a hungry media looking to capture market share to often at the expense of responsible journalism.Ultimately this irresponsibility promoties divisiveness in our country ... instead of unity .... A high cost to pay.It often shows up in our financial markets ...as a kind of psychological bermometric reading of our feelings as to the state of the nation and of the world....... Our recent sideways markets....with highs and lows ... tells the story.... There is a prevailing uncertainty... with every negative or positive action there is a reaction.....
To this optomist....it is just the normal activity of the current human condition...as we travel through a bad storm or experience a potentially life threatening illness...our judgment can become clouded by human emotion.....our faith....our resolve ...our perspective are hopefully ...just temporarily shaken.....
We have been here before...perhaps we've just forgotten...we have sacrificed and prevailed...we have fought and saved others ... who ultimately became our allies...that is real growth...
IDCC has fought and prevailed against ericy ....it has scraped and tussled to aguire and sustain licensees .....
Just as in the world and in our nation ... IDCC ... will have its good days and bad ones....there will be the antagonists and protagonists that will fight to the audience for their position to prevail....humorosly....they will both have winning days.....but to this optimists eyes ... to the just and right...go the rewards....albeit not necessarily in the time frame we would like...or in the shape or form we anticipated...
IDCC WILL PREVAIL....
NICE TO SEE THE LICENSE...
NICE TO SEE THE VOLUME UP...
NICE TO SEE THE UP DAY IN A WEAK MARKET....
BEST TO ALL
AS ALWAYS YOUR COMMENTS AND THOUGHTS ARE WELCOME.....ALLEY
Hello Jim + ALL...
"Where you been? I just asked about you."
I have been taking time since May to take care of some life issues.
I have periodically reviewed the board and current IDCC issues. I have a number of thoughts regarding our current position relative to the future and the market. I will try to set some time aside to share these thoughts with you.
I see we have a few new names emerging on the board ...that's good to see...
It is also good to see the many valuable contributors like loop,learning,mschere,jakyjones,jai,data rox,marchama,plus so many more contributing there time, energy and thoughts for the benefit of others.
Jim I am glad you seem to have recovered nicely from your minor set back.
You continue to make this board a needed destination for any serious IDCC investor.
I would like to thank all those who have dropped me a line or messaged me...
My thoughts are with you all...I have not disappeared or abandoned IDCC...Just taking care of personal business. Believe me ...I plan to be at the party. ALLEY
WE SURE HAD A NICE DAY…
OT.jai what is the symbol for UT Starcomm eom
RE: REPLY'S FROM INTERDIGITALS NEW COMMUNICATION SYSTEM
RE NEW COMMUNICATION SYSTEM WITH MANAGEMENT
I have sent 4 emails with no response. Posted by: dndodd 5/18/2004
Posted by: 3GDollars 5/18/2004
dndodd,
Not even an automated reply??????
That is correct. NADA.......................Posted by: dndodd 5/18/2004
Posted by: jai 5/18/2004 1
I've also sent an email with no reply. Seems like the email the directors function is like putting a lid with a slit on a garbage pail and calling it a suggestion box.
YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY NOT USING THE PROPER 'INTERDIGITAL' CODE FOR 'COMMUNICATION....' .........LOL.
At the very least they should have an automated response system...otherwise it leaves some investors feeling as if there communications are being put into a 'garbage pail "marked "suggestion box.".....
The idea was good....the intent worthy...the execution seemingly poor. It is a little idea that has the potential to be a positive outlet for investors and a notable resource for polling investor sentiment [if mgm't is interested].
If mgm't is unable in any way to respond to communications through the system it will result at best as an act of futility in aiding investors concerns and at worse a catalyst to impeding investor confidence.
PS. My calls for the most part ....have been returned.
'amrwonderful' RE:NOK arbitration
"My point in my previous post is that it would be a pretty short-sighted move to be an a-hole with IDCC when you may have to eat crow once the NOK arbitration is done."
My original expectation for the ERICY settlement was half of
what was being bantered around....the fact is .....we didn't
come close.
While I am not technically comparing the NOK arbitration to
the ERICY settlement.... I have to consider the fact that
almost everyone [if not everyone] was completely blind
sighted by the outcome. Many like myself recognized it was
better to get this albatross off our backs and 'move on'....
collect the money from NOKIA and start wrapping up the new
licensees.
That was over a year ago....we will now have to wait again...
Again MY expectations are for a favorable outcome ... my legs
are a little wobbly this time. I still have a lingering
emotional allergy when thinking of IDCC'S legal matters.
I avoid thinking about it as it serves no purpose ... but I
refuse to consider it as nothing more than a shear formality
with a a clear ending.
The arbiters have asked for an extension of
time to make a determination. I assume this delay is to allow
them the opportunity to carefully review a wide range
of complex issues that maybe beyond the scope of our
understanding.
From my perspective we have the winning position....otherwise I obviously wouldn't be here....but I am not on the panel...and I am not privy to all the legal arguments and nuances that will be put forward.
If it were a 'slam dunk' we wouldn't be trading at 15.95 .
Ask the legal eagles[atorneys if it's a 'slam dunk'
here's to hoping my perspective....
and I assume all longs..... is correct.....ALLEY
Art the rest of us will "love mgmt" when our stock price reflects your enthusiasm.....
RE:11 years + IDCC
"Alley...yes I am angry been in this stock close to 11 years with nothing to show for it ..."
Most longs share your frustration regarding the set backs. Each set back has often effected the stock price ... just at those moments when it seemed we were over the hump and ready to take off...bang.
It wasn't that long ago we were at 27+ ....
We will be back there again...
What has proven to be true....is that each time we have hit these moments where are lows are severe...in retrospect they have turned out to be good buying points....when evaluating highs and lows over a 6 , 12 , 18 month period?
REGARDING... STOCK PRICE ... BUYING + SELLING.
11 years AGO
11 years AGO THE STOCK PRICE was between $6 & $8 since then it has been as HIGH AS 80.00 AND AS LOW AS 3.60 IN '94
Selling it has obviously been a difficult decision for you...as it has been for many.
Throwing the winning lottery ticket away just before the numbers are publicly announced could prove to be UNFORTUNATE.
Hang tight ... another few months is nothing after 11 years
For what its worth many share your frustration....Some have sold their shares at these moments of weakness ... only to see it climb back up....and buy back in at a higher price.
PEACE... Alley.
UPDATED...RE:Marsala. Marsala is setting himself and investors up for IDCC to beat expectations qtr. after qtr..... thus minimizing any chances for downside surprises.
He has no intention of getting burnt again...jmho.
TO Arm + OTHERS:THINKING OUT LOUD....
The NASDAQ March lows at 1897-1900 support if those can't hold, the eventual target could be 1822. Resistance is 1940 and 1950...for now.
Today's activity feels like a gap filler. We will see.... We needed this to move ahead. The sellers are dwindling [sellers exhaustion]....buyers are going to slowly pick them off....Every month we move closer to Nokia resolution ... the more valuable this stock becomes.
The NASDAQ has historically improved in a interest hike environment. June/July may be good months ...imo....we may have exhausted sellers and there is money in the pipeline...keep your e yes.......open.
I will be carefully examining my feelings....and checking them against TA.
Last week the NASDAQ performed better than the Dow and other indices.
Tech stocks can rally for as much as a year after the first rate hike, as they did in 1999-2000.....thinking about that also .....
Deciding moments....
Mister seems you need some anger management...you are way off base...you have just suffered through the worst...this looks closer to selling capitulation....sit tight.
DECIDING MOMENTS...EOM
RE:Corpbuyers statement.
I realize there has been a good deal of contention over Corpbuyers recent concerns.
I think it is healthy for opposing views to be discussed. I have not evaluated or reviewed all of his posts ..... but in reading this post he is clear that it is not his intent to ''suggest there is cause and effect linkage of any of the above items.''
further he states.....
" if any of the above items seem incorrect in your opinion, then please let me know. "
" As always, these comments are all just my humble opinion and observations,".
I found nothing in Corps post that is incorrect.
I have personally been disturbed by the significant drop in my portfolio value resulting from the recent announcements from KOP. I have not as yet developed a cynical attitude causing me to believe that management has a hidden agenda. I believe they are either a bit arrogant or nieve when it comes to the timing and content of announcements and the proper consideration needed of public opinion.
On some occasions management has stepped to far out of the box in proclaiming anticipated developments and at other times they are too guarded sometimes seemingly evasive. They need to get this right. They need to share there vision in a way that gives investors confidence. Explain the disappointments of the moment
blended with a clear 'vision of the future looking into 2005
.
While these may appear insignificant nuances when compared to the 'big picture' they clearly effect shareholder performance. In a private company from qtr to qtr.the major stockholder can essentially do as he pleases....he is accountable to himself.
Unfortunately when you make the decision to take the publics money you are accountable to them as well.
I believe the bad news may be behind us....it appears that many have already made there short term decisions. It would be nice to walk away from the CC feeling like they got it right....and finding out....that they did in fact 'get it right.' In any case...I think a lot of selling has been flushed out.....we will see....
AS ALWAYS YOUR THOUGHTS AND COMMENTS ARE APPRECIATED. ALLEY
TO ALL ABOUT-IDCC- HOW WHEN,WHAT+ WHERE.
In reply to my3 sons + others with a hope, feeling or guess
of what will happen next, how it will happen, where and when
it will happen.
My3 sons....forget about trying to guess HOW WHEN,WHAT+ WHERE it will drive you crazzzzzzzzzzzzzy.LOL.
This is a great 'story stock' [a thriller]...just when you think you know how and when things are going to turn out ... there's a surprise ... the problem is the readers[investors]are always trying to figure out when and where the author is taking him/her.
Maybe the readers ... get it right 40 percent of the
time.
We all know the ending of the story....it is just difficult for most readers not to react to every thrilling moment.
The readers are consistently surprised...to the downside and
upside. Just when they think they have it all figured out...
boom... a twist in the road.
I am here because I read the last chapter and like it.
I think in the future I will be buying less mysteries.
The fact remains I bought this one and like its ending.
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND... IMHO sellers may be winding down
for the moment. There appears to be buyers picking up the
slack ... The majority of the sales seemed small but I
recognized a number of larger buys. You really can't make
much out of this...but like every mystery...you're always
putting pieces of the puzzle together.
4pm buy
05/07/04 16:00:14 28,896....a buy
lets see if we get some last minute buying...
NOT NICE...afternoon market action turning decidedly negative..
'Broken' that list has been out...they republish it with current additions...I think the list might be broken.
3G.THEY ARE SMOKING 'FEAR'..IT IS POWERFUL .
THE MARKET + IDCC+ a little story....
THE MARKET
We seem to be at one of those moments in the market when everyone is standing on the sidelines waiting for someone 'BIG' to make a big move so that everyone else can follow...[oversimplification] Unfortunately the ones who wait...... often are the ones who wait to long to buy or sell...
This type of moment in the market often results in the volatility swings we saw
today....
The DOW had about a 138 point swing from high to low ...ending down 69 well off the lows of the day
The NASDAQ had about a 30 point swing from high to low ...ending down 19 well off the lows of the day
Technicians at this MOMENT have a bias toward the negative side....
Traders on the floor are sitting with their fingers on the button....waiting for
tomorrow's numbers....not quite sure what they want to see ... if the numbers to
high...Greenspans behind the curve....[inflation + interest hike FEARS] if the
numbers to low.[inflation + interest hike FEARS - replaced with perhaps slower
economy FEARS] Either could spook the market for THE MOMENT.
It would be nice to be at the local watering holes tonight [where wall street
traders are HANGING out....deciding...whats up....]
Retail investors are waiting for direction......
Tomorrow will most likely result in some serious action ... especially in light of next
weeks options expiration....from there we may begin to better set the tone for the
short and intermediate term. As to the long term I think we will look fine year end.
My short and intermediate term attitudes have been decidedly negative for a while.
I anticipated the weakness in the market several months ago......people have been
locking into profits year over year....especially in the small caps. They are/or may
begin to look pretty attractive in the very near future. Just as everything begins to
look like it's falling apart....the sky is falling....my goodness....it's still there...and all
is not so bad.
We are not out of the dog house at this moment.....but looking back several weeks
we have moved from the back wall of the dog house to the entrance way...We have
had a lot of selling.....lattering down...at some point the sellers will get exhausted ... the question is....will the bulls run with it.
IMHO I am more inclined to believe that they are more prepared now....then 2
months ago. ......[ LOOKING OUT OF THE DOG HOUSE...RAIN OR SUN??]
IDCC
We have endured the market weakness remaining primarily in the 17's with
boughts of painful weakness . We are constantly plagued by a lack of visibility. I
tend to rely more on Ron's analysis with input from mschere and others ... then from the majority of analysts ... and management.
LOOKING FOR SOLID GUIDANCE MAY 10 TH.
Unfortunately I generally lack confidence in management's characterization of
their short and intermediate term vision of the state of the union 'I find we are
most often trying to read in between the lines.
Maybe ... we get it right 40 percent of the time.
We are to often surprised and disappointed to the downside as well as surprised
and elated to the upside. Thus the volatility....check the boards...when it's good it's
great [data rox " I love this stock"] and when it bad its terrible [this stock is a
piece of s--it" author not to be identified]
ABOUT THE STORY...and its nature.
This is a 'story stock' ....With a great story....the problem is the authors can't
seem to get the outcome or timeline for major events quite straight. Thus
interested publishers [investors] come and go...[remember ' boogie'
he had 23,000 shares last year]. They loose interest...they have less patience
then the true long soldier.' Or guys like Mickey [they loose perspective and
assets-] The good thing is there are always new publishers on the prowl. There are those analysts and institutions who know the story...and will plunge ahead hoping there timing is right....disappointed and hurt when they are blind sided.
This 'story stock' might be considered a great thriller...or mystery... [just
when you think you know how and when things are going to turn out ... there's
a surprise]. Unfortunately the majority of big financial clearing
houses/publishers [major institutions + brokerage firms] are uninterested in
distributing mysteries [buying stock with limited visibility].
THE STORY
I remain long ... as I believe in justice. I believe IDCC owns critical designs
to the engine+ the transmission of that new shiny 3g model that is being sold in
today's market. I believe a handful of big bully's followed by a bunch of little guys
went into there garage before anyone cared to much about the future 3g
model and talked to the idcc boys ...
"we like your model"....
"can we play with it?"
" If we use it ....we will certainly pay you someday....."...[lol to themselves]
The boys agreed ......and the story continues....
Will justice prevail...?....and when...?
The publishers are waiting...and ready. We are looking at the RIMM ...but we are
not standing on it .........yet.
We are closer to the RIMM....EVERYDAY...
'GOOD SURPRISES ARE IN STORE'...said the oracle.
Best to all....
YOUR COMMENTS AND THOUGHTS ARE APPRECIATED....ALLEY
MAY GOD BE WITH US TOMORROW...AMEN.
NICE AFTERNOON REVERSAL ON NAZ..LET SEE IF IT STICKS.
nasdaq seeming to be coming back..let see.
JUST SOMETHING TO CONSIDER....
The market is waiting with pent up anticipation for tomorrow's numbers....this is why the action today .....if all goes well tomorrow we could have an explosive day as we did in March,,, The market has had a lot of selling for several weeks...yet there were decent money flows into funds in airplay guess we will see....certainly as tc has said the news on the economy couldn't be much better...at some point you would think people will react to that facti think the interest worries over the last 3 weeks for all intensive purposes are and have been factored in........I guess we will see
ALLEY
PS. This may be the downdraft before the next surge....thinking about this now.
I don't think the market can ignore the economic data forever.
tc..looks like we are getting ready to take off....to somewhere..tight lines..what do you think?
There are definitley some buyers out there...picking away the sellers.
Jim Re:your response to current market activities....
Jim Re:your response to my recent thoughts.
My comments. RE: Friday trading activity
Closed at 17.38 below our open... a technical indicator portending additional volatility/weakness
[] Your response:
Thank God they're both subjective, huh.
I am not certain what 'both' ...you were referring to....
As to 'portending additional volatility/weakness'
In the following days we have had volatility .....closing at or below our open. This is not a sign of strength..... I believe you would agree.
Now.... We are up 1.75 off our lows of Thursday [that sounds good]
and down 2.00 off our highs of Friday [that doesn't sound as good].
Today...... We are in the same place as yesterday.
[] Your comment:
Which stall are you referring too?
Actually....I did not refer to any stall....interesting that you brought that up.
What I questioned was whether we would have to fill the gap from 19.50 to 15.75. It was a question not a statement about the potential short term trading patterns.
"The question that lurks over head technically in the short term is whether we will have to fill the gap from 19 to 15.75....."
As far as stalling .....yesterday I did say....
Now.... We are up 1.75 off our lows of Thursday [that sounds good]
and down 2.00 off our highs of Friday [that doesn't sound as good].
Today...... We are in the same place as yesterday. With the volatility working its
way out.
[] Your comment:
And BTW I doubt if 5 percent of all investors break it down that way.
I am not certain how '5' percent much less '50' percent of all investors break it down.... I am certainly most often willing to listen and consider to how you and others' break it down'. As to how many see it my way or your way or anyway ... to me...that is less important. It is important to have folks who are willing to take the time to clearly and thoughtfully present there opinions and questions. It is my decision to determine as to there value.
[] As to how you ....' break it down'
[] Your comment: .....Your ' break down'
Let's see, 10 percent of the shares traded in 2 days. The norm right?
Range of mid 15's to mid 19's and back to mid 17's. Again the norm right?
Wrong!
To the chartists go to weekly and include STO.
Factor the NAS sell off within the last week and the rise of this stock and pay attention to the dates in play. Dates in play would be market wise. Very important.
I imagine there are a few with some TA skills that may have been able to read between your lines....as to the general population...I am not certain what they gleaned from your thoughts.
My guess is you were trying to say ... that the last couple of days trading activity was volatile, and unusual.[not really unusual. Considering the unexpected earnings announcement and the fact that we were in oversold territory both IDCC and the market] Also...our stock price was up that day in a down market and...oh yes look at the stochastic on your weekly chart. And most important....dates that these events took place in the market were..... 'Very important. '
[] As to your commentary/opine
"I doubt if 5 percent of all investors break it down that way. If they did and came up with the same conclusions they wouldn't even be here."
As to the general population...I am not certain what they gleaned from your commentary....other than ... if they considered my thoughts of any value they represented only "5 percent of all investors" and " If they did and came up with the same conclusions they wouldn't even be here,"
lol.... love....your thoughtful commentary.
As to Your comments:
[]And most importantly if your going to sell try and drive the price down further first as I want to add at the cheapest price possible. Thank for your help.
lol...you maybe a little late for 'the cheapest price possible' that may have been Thursday....but you hang in there...the games still in progress.
[] as to... "if your going to sell try and drive the price down further "
a. It would not be in my best interest to ''drive the price down further "
as I am a' true long'.
b. And........ I am NOT so arrogant as to believe I could.
Finally....
[]Alley I read your part 3 times and still you confuse me, as usual.
Lol.... 3 times....that's impressive....that gives me warm and fuzzies...
As to being confused ... this to shall pass.
Take deep breaths....relax....enjoy the Spring....
If this puzzlement continues ['as usual '] ...email me
I'll see if we can't work it out...
Hope you took the humor in the manner in which it was intended.
Life is to short to let any moment get you down....
I know.....there is little that gets YOU...down.
My guess is we will be on the same page again....
Until then............. Peace. Alley
Hope that is not the extent of the market rally...
THE BATTLE OF THE BULLS+BEARS IS ON..OLAY TORO..