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The real story...................IMO
After taking a step back and looking at all of the updates, statements by ERHE etc...I have come to this conclusion..
This whole project is NOT about drilling 5 wells and hoping for a commercial hole. That is NOT what they are looking for at this stage(although it would a nice thing) of the game. That's why it's called Phase 1. Because there are three phases to this project headed by ERHE/OFFER/SNP. They are reviewing all of the data that they started with (Seismic and expertise) and combining that initial data with the new data from the 5 wells and coming up with a plan to develop this JDZ into a commercial oil/gas producing zone (phase 2 and 3). This takes time, money and a lot of expertise. Because of the deep water, it is VERY expensive to drill holes. They can't just keep wild catting and hope for a gusher, they will not be successful and be broke in no time..Up until Seismic data this deep water stuff was not affordable.
So, the bottom line is this PROJECT to develop this ZONE is going to take time, 1-3 more years to get to the production drilling phase but it WILL happen. When they actually have great data and can pinpoint areas with the best possibility for commercial oil production. The thing we need to hear are "we are going to start phase 2, we have found evidence of a commercial ZONE (not hole) and we are persueing the project at a quick pace(evidence EEZ picks). They certainly found good data to proceed, that is why all of the smiles..not because they hit one commercial hole...THEY FOUND A COMMERCIAL ZONE!!!
This drill data is important only to proceed to phase 2 and 3. It doesn't matter if 1, 2, 3 or none of the individual holes is commercial.. again it matters to the commercialization of the JOINT DEVELOPMENT ZONE...So (including myself) need to stop hoping for gushers one these 5 holes, I'm afraid we will not see that type of news..
But this all looks great, I think the news when it comes out will be great, not what we are looking for but great news for the continuation of this very lucrative project.
One more thing, IMO I feel that OFFER may be trying to cut a deal with SNP and subsidary of them but with control decisions still in the hands of ERHE...I don't think SNP is willing to do that..
agian IMO
It's unfortunate, but hopefully it won't..We could hold .55 but with no REAL news it probably won't.. I don't think ERHE management cares about the SP right now.
obviously
BECAUSE THEY CAN
The operators who got interested in blocks 2, 3 and 4. Sinopec is the operator in block 2 and Addax in blocks 3 and 4. Phase one of exploration drilling in that area has happened and is completed, we’re waiting for the results which would be announced within the next month or in six weeks and then we move on to phase 2. We have been following negotiations with the Joint development Authority (JDA)
MEMO DATED MARCH 3, 2010..
SO NO RESULTS UNTIL APRIL 4 -- 18TH..
WHEN IS THE SHAREHOLDERS MEETING???
This smells like a nice marriage deal in the works..I think OFFER wants to build his Nigerian oil company, but needs finacial help (obvious). IMO the reason all of this waiting and mistery stems from negotiations with another company. This is typical, don't say or breath anything until there is an agreement in place.. I feel that one is probably 95% done, there must be some little issues that need resolving before they will announce. Again IMO ERHE will be a part of a larger company, but still acting in it own capacity for Nigerian oil development purposes...The big question is, how valuable is OFFER to another company ....SNP???
Could any other outside company have 1/2 the success that OFFER has accomplished so far in this region??? NO...So, IMO the deal will come with ERHE and OFFER running the show...
Now lets just wait and see... hopefully wait = 1 -- 4 weeks.
P.S. the little issue is probably getting the drilling agreements signed for the EEZ. IMO Phase 2 is a done deal for the JDZ..
It seems that various people in the JDA and EEZ folks and such are letting the public know there are substantial findings in the JDZ..through documents released that are not necessarily about the the findings in the JDZ...
But think about what just happened in the EEZ..blocks awarded very quickly, this tells me they feel very strongly that there is oil in the EEZ, why because the JDZ has shown great results. If it didn't why would anyone all of sudden be in this big hurry to get started witht the auctions, blk awards etc..unless there was a good reason to move at this pace.
The dude that connects the dots all the time..do you work with the recent tid bits, I think you dots will form a big dollar sign.
smallfish what do the numbers mean
Top Shelf -- you are a GOD....
definitely no news tonight or tomorrow.
479 in a row
wasn't it 2007 when they drilled, I could be wrong again. 478 in a row.
2007 was blk 1 chevron
2015 is why they are looking at shallow wells to produce quick cash til we get to 2015. I think if OFFER can't make a good deal, he will go the other way and secure these marginal fields that can be brought on line quickly to produce revenue until the big show. OFFER will NOT give this company away!!!
IMO it looks like OFFER and company are trying to get ALL of the agreements in order before drilling disclosure or any news announcements. Drilling disclosure delay is the only thing that baffles me, to me it must be something bigger than just good drill results...At this point they have their EEZ selections, know the drill results, ??? IMO Someone is going to make ERHE a part of their company, maybe a Subsidiary of a larger company. IMO this will still give a Nigerian face for any future deals.
Sounds like commercial to me....
ERHC Energy's Vice President in charge of Corporate Development, Mr. David Bovell, said the company's deepwater will come on production between 2015 and 2020.
The minute this turns green today with this volume == news...tonight or am...if no green == no news til later in the week.
they're trying .74 5k
Here fishy fishy, come and eat up shares while you can.
Looking for the school of Piranhas to eat up this minnow... Here fishy fishy
come on, you know you guys want in..OFFER will you give the green light already.....
A .73 or higher 2mil close would be REALLY solid.
Actually Pete it's none of your business why I follow the message board, wether i'm invested or just doing it for fun.
But I will tell you that I find all of peoples reactions quite interesting to comments made on this and any board...the need to be the man on these boards is tremendous, everyone wants to be recognized as the person who has the info, the right one...
There are a lot of issues that people have here that need professional help.
If you really BELIEVE in the company, why would anyone need to follow and participate in a message board...
"NOONE KNOWS NUTHIN"
The only facts that count are the ones the company puts out.
exceo, I don't think companies make it a habit of announcing buyouts mergers talk at this level. Also OFFER and SNP hold things very close to the chest as we've found out. When all of this is happening with no info on results, the stock acting slugish after rumors, no real volume (new money coming in) I have a gut that there is not much to tell. The thing I've noticed is when other oil/gas companies make huge finds they announce it fairly quickly. Our find must be soft, maybe some potential with further exploration...But is SNP going to flip the bill for Phase 2???? I'm thinking not....IMO Offer is scamble to get something for ERHE with the EEZ opportunity..I hope I'm very wrong, but to me IMO things don't look like a home run here. It doesn't look like we can rely on seismic data either for EEZ...I know there are other zones to drill in the JDZ with potential, but I thought they chose the most promising in phase 1. Certainly there is a lot of mixed information, bashers and pumpers are sending it in right now and the pumpers have a slight lead...
what everyone think of gasman48 post? Mark, Krom
thanks
How can we obtain a copy of this Dana Gas 12/31/09 operational update, released 1/31/10. is this real or made up...
I'm afraid this price will not hold much longer..
Well, with a weak second day here it looks like yesterday was all from the board hipe. No real money is coming in today, just flippers. We need to average 5-7 million shares for a while for me to truely believe something is coming big...I know patience!
Pretend we are all brand new Real estate sales people..call all of your relatives(that are still talking to you), friends enemies, buy buy buy buy buy buy we need the help...
OFFER, please put the word out to your Nigerian friends buy buy buy buy...send out emails to every online customer telling them to buy, I know you must have a distant relative in that business..
However ALL of this is nice and a great boost to everyone...
BUT the bottom line is we still need an OFFICIAL announcement from ERHE.. false dreams again??? real dreams that will happen??? only time will tell, hopefully weeks not months, years again...
My bottom line is if this all is BS I will be out for good...
Goodluck to all....I have everything crossed for luck we'll ned it.
maybe $10 isn't out of the question if everything is in order. Blk 5, 6 9 resolved and JDZ results better than expected. But I think OFFER is going to get at least $5... for the results and current holdings..
IMO In my hopes I hope Offer will not accept under $5...
Top Shelf is right. The volume and share price must get going BEFORE any announcement of ANY kind will come. Nothing is happening with either as of today so news IS highly unlikely this week. IMO I think OFFER is finishing up on a buy-out deal with someone. Who didn't participate in the EEZ??? that may give a hint as to a suitor for our minnow. Bid war...I doubt it...I think we will get $3 to 6 per share....
I'll take it...
Degen is right, when has ERHE come out with anything in a timely manner??? Everything has been last minute, including drilling...So if anyone thinks that they are going to churp up now, they are not..too much behind the scenes Nigerian dealing going on to let the investors know, they don't care! They care about their pockets, their deals, their politics and none of ours concerns. They will hold their cards tightly to their chests for as long as possible.
IMO there are one of two scenerios here....
1. The results are marginal at best(blk 1 results) and ERHE (Offer) is trying to convince SNP to do a phase 2 ... or
2. The results are great and ERHE (Offer) is afraid that someone will try to pry, steal, hold up in court(blk 5 and 6) the contracts, assosiations with the governments, etc from ERHE and Offer. That's the Nigerian mentality, they will keep everything very quiet, close mouthed until the deals are done and THEY are assured they are protected in their investments..
Enough is enough, everyone is making excuses for ERHE of way they don't this and why they don't that. The EEZ blocks are chosen, build share holder value by giving a value of the JDZ. What did they find??? enough BS of why or why not they will, can release info. Plenty of other companies that drill give results earlier than this is been going on. There is no reason they cannot say:
here are the results of the first couple of drills,
or we are working on an agreement for the second phase with SNP; or something!!! The value the way they are acting is NOTHING..the only reason the SP is at .46 (and falling again) is because belief in the finds and region are fading FAST...
So either OFFER is trying to convince SNP to do a phase 2 and spend more money at this point or there is nothing to drill
they are all lies, did we drill this deep?
Again, IMO once ERHE/OFFER have secured their EEZ blocks, the news will come out on JDZ. ERHE has used the results to broker deals with their partners. This deal should yield ERHE some nice cash and assets to get them to JDZ production and pick up some more shallow assets with the cash.. I would think ERHE is going to partner with Sinopec for some of the blocks in the EEZ so they won't be played in the JDZ. If Sinopec is not a partner in the EEZ with ERHE I gotta believe they will not be happy campers and play the Chevron waiting game in block 1. The EEZ needs operators that will start the drilling and completion in minimal time NOT waiting til the last hour to drill holes to satisfy a contract. So, Sinopec may get the deal with the 15% blocks, but nothing else. I think EEZ wants action and production, not stalling and excuses. Sinopec can't even get drill ships in a timely manner. I always thought that was odd being that they are a big Chinese oil company. ALL of course IMO.
Some of the stay long ERHE'rs are bailing out..all of the family members are cussing at them as to why they drug them into this ERHE bonanza. A lot of families are cutting their relatives out of their wills and Christmas lists..
Bounce is coming around .32 -33 and 2 to 3 more million shares traded...
Bright side is if news comes out now, it would be hard to sell the news...