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Can’t help but wonder how you were able to draw those conclusions. There’s nothing in your statement that is concurrent with known facts.
AAPL has already stated its intentions.
What do we know as indisputable facts in order to determine a likely outcome going forward? Lets look a couple things AAPL has said:
1. It intends to work with GT on sapphire glass in the future.
2. It stated that preserving jobs in Mesa is important.
3. It stated that disclosure of docs in GT’s ch11 would endanger current and future deals with
suppliers.
Lets examine what AAPL has done:
1. It spent $500M on a sapphire glass plant in Mesa for not only current, but future products.
2. It filed motion after motion to prevent docs from being disclosed during GT’s Ch11.
3. It offered an incredibly generous offer to GT including $150M in exit financing for GT simply
agreeing to keep its mouth shut.
Now lets look at the wild cards for AAPL:
1. Judge stated theres no good reason to maintain disclosure.
2. Class actions filed against GT, if they go to trial, will certainly involve full document disclosure in
order to determine culpability.
Conclusion: AAPL’s number one self interest is preventing disclosure as the ripple effect on future deals with suppliers could very well be incalculable. AAPL must return value to GT shareholders somehow in order to quash class actions. AAPL has no choice as a 1B loss now will most likely mean billions in savings later. As such, AAPL stated its interest on future sapphire glass products, therefore any loss now may be only temporary.
The question is... what are the odds AAPL allows disclosure. Because thats all this is about at this point.
None of that is happening without disclosure, which AAPL will not allow. AAPL will make GT whole including returning shareholders equity by putting up the cash to pull GT out of BK. Why? Of course its in our best interest.... but the important point here is that it is in AAPL’s best interest.
Top 5 were prevented from selling by court order.
Never let the fact that AAPL is bending over backwards for GT; making one unbelievably favorable offer and ready to sweeten the deal... get in the way of a good bashing. AAPL WILL NOT allow disclosure under any circumstances. That means returning shareholder value as class actions will certainly result in disclosure. Book it. Done deal.
If Tim Cooks announcement had anything whatsoever to do with the GT BK (and I don’t know how we would ever know that), then the situation and the implications for its outcome are much, much bigger than any of us understand.
Its a dead argument Caz. Guys like F have been screaming zero the entire time AAPL has been showing that it will do everything in its power to prevent disclosure, which in turn demands that GT be made whole. Meanwhile sp bounced from .83 to 1.97, from 1.23 to 1.97, from .31 to .97 and its bouncing now from .45. But he insists its the shorts who made all the money. ??? Nonsense. Every bit of it.
It’s amazing to me that people still equate what has quite possibly been the most bizarre set of circumstances I’ve seen in 16 years of trading, with a typical BK. That people are expecting a typical outcome from what’s been a completely atypical situation.
To think that these “lawsuits” will have any impact whatsoever on IBIO’s business dealings, is to view them through the lens of a retail trader with a vested interest in their stock price, and not from the perspective of a fellow corporation interested in licensing their technology. Whatever deals IBIO is currently working on will come to fruition by way of relationships and will have absolutely nothing to do with Rosen and his fellow jackals. IBIO’s Board of Directors has connections extending all the way to the White House. Coming to the table with a technological solution and then leveraging those powerful relationships is how big boy business is done.
It was trading around $5-$6 pre AAPL. That would be my guess. I would imagine that folks who were in the teens would be satisfied with that, considering the alternative of a court battle which would probably get them pennies on the dollar.
Not only exit ch11, but return shareholder equity. If class actions go forward, AAPL will be facing full disclosure again.
I don’t disagree at all. I simply stated what AAPL will argue.
AAPL will argue that bad deal or not, GT signed on the dotted line. Which they did. GT’s ace in the hole is the threat of disclosure which will spell out the bad deal in black and white.
Makes the most sense for all involved if that does not happen.
There’s no big secret. AAPL doesn’t want details of it’s business practices regarding suppliers released in open court. No way around that happening unless GT emerges from BK with at least some shareholder value. Otherwise class actions will commence and all docs will be disclosed.
Because GT can use AAPL’s desire for secrecy as a bargaining chip to help exit BK and immediately jump back to pre AAPL valuation. They need to return at least some equity to shareholders in order to prevent class action. If lawsuits are allowed to proceed, AAPL will be subject to full disclosure in open court.
A couple things jump to mind regarding Squillers Declaration. GT is not going to do anything to jeopardize it’s deal with AAPL. The watered down version of the Declaration presented today could be a shot across the bow. The question is... is it GT taking the shot, or is it Squiller making a move on his own behalf in regard to future litigation not only against GT, but against him personally. What good does it do Squiller if GT survives without him? He may be saying “you’d better include me in this deal, or else”. Oh, the possibilities. If the judge allows the docs to remain sealed until the 25th, that may suggest a broader deal is in the works. Something dismissing the BK perhaps, and returning some shareholder value. Because that’s realistically the only way AAPL is going to stay off the record. Which is its #1 objective at this point. Above taking losses.
Agree and disagree. Agree that the Squiller doc is just a glimpse into the goings on. AAPL can refute allegations as long as details of the actual deal are not revealed. Disagree that AAPL’s moves have anything to do over concern with public image. AAPL wants docs to stay under wraps so they can continue their take it or leave it business model. Disclosure allows would-be suppliers to formulate plans for negotiation against unfavorable deals.
The problem AAPL is going to have moving forward are the class actions against GT. Details of the BK will be released in open court if the suits go forward. There’s no way around it. This is why we saw the PR yesterday of GT claiming they would sue AAPL if they could. It sets the table for a defense by putting the onus of BK on AAPL by suggesting GT is a victim. I said from the beginning that AAPL would not allow disclosure, and so far they haven’t. They will do what they need to in order to keep docs sealed. They thought an amazingly favorable deal with GT including $150M in exit financing to pay off other creditors would be enough. It’s not. AAPL is going to do what it takes to make this go away and will chalk the loss up to a learning experience for future deals. That means making GT whole.
Great summation, thank you for that. I believe both aforementioned scenarios may have taken place. That said, two hit pieces and three phony law suits in three trading days tells me the forces that be knew they needed extraneous pressure to get this down into the current trading range, and fast. Whomever is behind funding these firms to bring these suits is short in a big way. And nervous if the negative PR blitzkrieg is any indication. IBIO is not some triple zero built on a pile of BS. And if they come out the other end with a licensing deal, this will go ape sh** for a week straight with no chance of ever returning to these levels. Those responsible for the recent attack know this.
They’ve already won. That’s because this has nothing to do with trying a case, as they have no intention of doing so. The purpose of the exercise is to release inflammatory allegations, thereby destroying investor confidence and driving down sp for their professional trading clients. The tactic works because the retail segment (which is the intended target), sees that a “law firm” is “suing” a company and they assume where there’s smoke, there’s fire. For the most part, retail isn’t aware that sham law firms take part in market manipulation every day.
“further the confusion”. Two wrongs...
I’m shocked that the author actually took the time to break down the allegations. Where the phony lawsuits are succeeding is in the fact that people are losing themselves in the words and not examining the motives. The fact that Faruqi's press release references the hit piece from Sweeper, which clearly states in its disclaimer that the publisher of said article has taken a short position against IBIO, is a joke on anybody that spent two seconds of their lives pondering whether or not the suit has merit.
A little early in the game to make that assertion. Don’t you think? We’re weeks into the crisis and a week away from those comments being made, yet a couple hack law firms well know for their work with professional traders have some inside information? And that information is that IBIO is not going to strike a deal that involves the manufacturing of ZMAPP? Where can I get that crystal ball?
Why the sudden change of heart B? Bet I know.
Thank you for the info. Liquidation would involve AAPL allowing disclosure, which will not happen.
AAPL will not allow disclosure under any circumstances. That is why the first deal was so favorable to GT. The next one is going to be even better. I think your scenario is plausible and has probably better than 50% odds.
I would hope the market is smart enough to realize it would be impossible for anyone to prove the allegations in paragraph 2 ahead of Nov 10. We shall see.
Low vol & little movement. Shorts will probably begin to exit as it’s getting dangerous to hold positions ahead of Nov 10. No spike in downward movement after phony lawsuits suggest longs have done their homework.
I would agree with that. Breaking the previous support (and now resistance) at $1.23 from OCT 10th I believe, would be the final wakeup that the short game is over. IMO anyway. There will always be a couple Kamikazes.
Understood. All one can do is speculate and in doing so, I try to put myself in their shoes. If they are frantically getting a presentation together for the 10th, or possibly working deals already... then the market manipulation, hit pieces and Rosen are all going to take a backseat, as management knows they’ll quickly evaporate in short order.
I had some, not all, at the time of that posting. Now have all info I was looking for. Thank you.
He should be prosecuted for gross negligence, if he lives.
This will continue to be heavily manipulated by the market in the current trading range until a deal breaks. Expect the next couple weeks to be a gut check for longs. Good luck.
I can’t answer that. What attracted me to IBIO is that they aren’t offering a vaccine per say, but rather presenting technology to speed up the production process. Licensing opportunities to multiple manufacturers equals multiple streams of revenue.
Last weeks action was all about short covering. The bears confidence has been shaken. Anyone caught short the morning news breaks of GT emerging from Ch11 whole, is going to be in a world of hurt.
You’re kidding, right?
If there is a deal forthwith, then those details are currently being negotiated. Ebola was not on IBIO’s radar, NOR ANY OF THE MAJOR DRUG COMPANIES BECAUSE 1. Previously, it was a relatively rare disease that was thought to affect only remote pockets of Africa. 2. There were no FDA approved Ebola vaccines for IBIO to work with. Therefore there was no feasible stream of income to justify doing so. Until Now. Remember, we are literally talking in terms of weeks from the point that the first case of Ebola appeared in America, to the Federal Government stating it wants 50M doses on hand, to a rush of vaccine producers being called upon to present plans for production on a major scale. This is a crisis where the day to day goings on are fluid for everyone involved. The major takeaway from all of this is that the Feds are so desperate to get a vaccine in the pipeline in massive quantities, that it is almost a given that any company with technology to offer the cause, will get a shot to prove itself.
Hope it was helpful
If there is no official response to the phony law suit, then one can conclude news of a deal should be coming shortly.