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Nice work, bud. Thanks for sharing. I was thinking about a week from now it would be inoculated. Seems like it might be sooner.
They said they were going to introduce the algae to the Wall Unit late this week. I'm guessing it'll be about a week in the wall unit before going to the PBR.
Judging from the looks of the containers used to infuse the wall unit, and the fact that the algae will double each day, my guess is 6 to 9 more days before inoculation.
Thoughts?
Glad to have you back, Quinn! Would love to hear what you find out on your visit.
LOL... nice!
Funny - I've spoken to BEHL management as well, and I'm not getting nearly the same story as you are.
And I've been in contact with them for nearly a year.
Weird.
I'd hesitate to ask Domini anything guys - and I hope she doesn't answer frankly. I'd rather she do her work uninterrupted.
Monique/Dennis/Brian have shouldered that load. There's no more need to consume the time of anyone else.
As someone else said earlier ... these PBRs are being purchased now. The buyer is satisfied with whatever mechanisms are being used. We'll do more harm than good by continuing to bombard the company. They have been keeping us informed all along the way, let's let them do the work.
My opinion.
LOL... yeah, I bet she feels left out! Spoke to Monique last week - and she said she gets about 150 shareholder emails a day.
I bet Domini is just fine being left out of the loop
No doubt they did allow for it. Great question for Dennis, Brian or Monique. You should call and ask them.
They said early on that all water would be recycled (true closed loop - including maintenance). In terms of cooling, I'm sure they've ogt it covered. How exactly? Not sure, but I've got a couple ideas that are relatively simple/cost effective.
Also, each algae strain is different as I'm sure you're aware given all your obvious painstaking DD. Which strain are you referring to that dies at 82 degrees?
Right on. Good point.
The puddles.
Here's my take.... if it was actual unexpected leaking taking place:
1) they would have never turned the camera back on.
2) they would now have had WEEKS to fix it. They could have called a local plumber to fix that.
------
3) Dennis directly said in a previous post (#84302 - email to a shareholder) that the system does not leak.
4) Go back and look at post #36502. It's a picture from Derek, our old cameraman at SJC. It shows the sprinkler system in place for V1. It doesn't look like they installed the sprinklers for V3, but it would make sense that there is a reason for keeping the tubes cool with water on a regular basis.
None of this is proof that the water is for cooling/cleaning - but taken together seems like pretty good circumstantial evidence.
Not to mention, I'm not so sure it's a good idea to make the business plan available to everyone and anyone at this stage of the game.
It was Dennis' PR. Goodall could have come on board and convinced Dennis it wasn't in their best interest to share it publicly.
Thanks for the reference to the post, Gummy. You're right - not 1:1. I had a diagram in my head that was shown somewhere in the past couple months. It was of multiple PBR units laid out in two rows, ten long each row. Forgot about Dennis' email that ST posted.
Anyone know where I saw that diagram? Can't find it anywhere.
As for the plug and play... I hear you. Different farms, different set of variables. However, I think this is one of the reasons they began looking at 100+ acre farms. Zoning is done once, shared resources, same growing conditions, etc. It's a situation where they CAN plug the fields in much easier/quicker when a new client comes on board. Very smart.
With the commercial unit set to begin construction shortly, we shouldn't have to wait too long for the answers.
good luck.
beastie
Another benefit in my opinion - and possibly most relevant to us as shareholders is that in terms of proving algae growth, they've already built the system to scale in their back yard.
Meaning, they'll be adding PODs to make as many acres as they like, but as it appears, they'll be running independently and only sharing resources (CO2, Siemens system, etc). Which means, POD 1 is running at HQ, and all they'll be doing is replicating as the business comes in. Each POD will have it's own pig, it's own extraction point, etc. So, the system itself changes very little as it scales up. They'll just continuing to add PODs...
As an investor, that is a very exciting point.
It seems from observing the blueprints, that another benefit to the "pod" system is that if there is a leak, it will be limited to that pod, and not effect production in the rest of the system.
Gummy - as far as mirroring the conditions of the commercial site...
The commercial site has "modules" of one acre a piece. Within those modules are - what I'll call - "pods." You've seen the blueprints. Our commercial site will be one acre groups of pods.
It makes sense to me to make sure that the Santa Ana PBR matches the exact size of each pod. Having the same size pods (and growing conditions they are mirroring) will allow us to compare and contrast the production levels on a 1 to 1 basis, giving us the opportunity to tweak the HQ PBR for increased production before making the same changes to the commercial unit.
Very smart move for a company that is planning on continuously improving the system.
Made a mistake on my last post when I indicated that the VAR signings meant "money later."
From a PR last summer...
"The licensing fees for dealers in discussion start at $250,000 per license for a 5 year license. This gives the dealer the right to re-sell a closed loop Algae bioreactor at $86,000 per acre and still make a good profit margin on the Investment."
Ah... REVENUES
A couple of my favorite phrases pulled from the PR...
1. "deposits were received" ... (money now)
2. "contracts were finalized" ... (money now)
3. "received three signed VAR agreements" ... (money later)
This is the start of what we've been waiting for. I think 2010 will be very good to us.
BG, that is some great DD. Thanks for all the work.
FTW... horrible comparison. The bank wanted $3 MILLION for the property. Dennis offered $1.5 Million.
What company CEO would fork over $1.5 Million more than they felt a property was worth? Especially in the worst real estate market since the great depression.
Honestly - HORRIBLE comparison.
Ok, thanks Steve. This answers my question. So, feel free to ignore the last post.
Hi Steve, sounds good. Can you elaborate?
My apologies, just got back from vacation and have not caught up on the posts yet.
We've contracted 11 acres to begin building the PBR to saisfy the Omega 3 order(s)?
Thanks in advance.
beastie
Thanks for bringing that up. Forgot that mistake was in there.
Wow. That's a lot to digest. I'd need to sit down for awhile longer to see if I could solidify some opinion on Mongolia based on this info, but here are my initial thoughts...
1) Possibly they are just brokers for green tech projects, and just match the clients to the producers? This is from the about us page...
Projects in the past have included the brokering of diverse deals on refinery technology projects and oil exploration deals in Asia. Our implementation of the latest technology and management systems could help thousands of green projects globally.
By-products of combustion will be recycled on-site in the manufacture of building bricks, eliminating waste and its disposal problems
My guess is that we're within a week. They said it would be two weeks until the algae is moved into the wall unit, then after further innnoculation, the algae strain would be delivered to the PBR.
Today is the two week mark. So if all is on schedule, the algae should currently be in the wall unit.
Really great post. +1
Right - and it's an attractive type of stock for investment firms. The safe pick in a boom industry like this is not the scientists researching the next strain, but the manufacturers selling the equipment.
It's a one stop shop. No matter how far the science comes, it's still cheaper for our PBR to produce the strain.
Yeah, but the advantages don't stop there.
I think where we have a HUGE leg up on the competition is that a lot of them are concentrating on building biofuel production plants, and banking on government dollars to do it. You've seen a lot of them stall this year based on the gov incentives being removed.
BEHL is building farms with client money, and selling the high margin products. It's just good business sense. The longer the government holds out, the more tubes we get on the ground ahead of the competition. Either way - we win.
The time comes when biofuel makes more sense to produce than omega 3, or the government increases incentives, it'll take us about six weeks to switch the strains in as many acres as we choose.
LOL... no it was all positive I assure you.
What I meant first off was that I was being conservative in all my estimates - I actually think WAY too conservative given the addition of Goodall, new 150 farm plan, et al, since Dennis made his projections. You need to have a baseline.
BUT... even if you're only taking the most conservative numbers, we'll see strong growth over the next couple years. Not IN a couple years, but all long the way.
The flip side is this...
- the business model is built for exponential growth
- we're in the middle of the next boom industry
- we're the cheapest on the market
- we're able to monitor a system anywhere in the world
- the government is only starting to even the playing field for algae with incentives, etc.
If we prove that this works on commercial scale, we won't be able to keep up with demand. And you can forget conservative estimates.
And keep in mind that my conservative estimate - in 18 months - puts our PPS 41 times higher than where we are today.
Well, they're grading land very soon for the 5 one-acre PBRs.
That's nearly $1 million in revenues right there, with presumably 50% up front.
Nearly $500,000.00 to BEHL to get started. Not bad.
Right - the intent was to be conservative on all fronts.
- Conservative 1 billion o/s estimate.
- Conservative PE ratio of 15.
- Conservative PPS estimates as a result.
And even with the conservative approach, this stock is about as strong as it gets over the next couple years.
I think we'll start to build within the next few weeks, but my guess is more in the .03 to .05 range in your time frame, assuming there are announcements of revenues, new projects, etc.
Keep in mind, they are starting off all clients slowly. They are selling 1 acre PBRs to clients, with potential expansion to 10 acres. With the 5 clients they currently have, when the process is proven, 5 acres could turn into 50 within a very short time frame.
For arguments sake - and based on 1 billion o/s - if the PE is 25 the projections for this year and next are...
2010 = .125
2011 = .625
If PE were 40, then projections would be...
2010 = .20
2011 = 1.00
I think if you're looking at this as a long-term investment, you're looking at earnings, and how those earnings affect market cap.
Dennis Fisher at one point projected earnings of $5M in 2010 and $25M in 2011. If those come true, and we assume a conservative PE ratio of 15, at a o/s of 1 billion, our "2010 price" is .075, and our "2011 price" is .375
This does not account for the fact that the PE would likely be in the 25 - 40 range for a new/growing industry, and does not look 6 months ahead as revenue generating stocks tend to do.
Yep, I think the contents of the financials were expected by most here.
Companies have those convertible preferred shares as a means to guard against a takeover.
BEHL's market cap is less than $10M right now. It would be very easy for an investment group to buy up more than 50% of the shares and begin assigning board seats, etc.
The convertible shares make it impossible for that to happen.
I don't know about production numbers between the two. Don't have hard data, just my own general observations.
1. BEHL needs alot less material per square foot than RWE's PBR. Less cost for BEHL.
2. BEHL has a lot more space in their PBR in which to grow algae (i.e. bigger tubes). More algae output for BEHL.
3. RWE's vertical PBR means that: 1) they'll need to spend more energy/money pumping water vertically, and 2) they'll need more infrastructure with which to build a comparably sized PBR. Less cost for BEHL.
The one argument made against the BEHL system is the fact that they need more land for it than RWE, because the system is flat. I think this is mitigated by the fact that the land to grow algae can literally be in the middle of the desert.
Anyway, those are a couple thoughts. I used to talk to the old project manager for BEHL on a regular basis, and he said their numbers stood up against all other PBR output numbers known as of this January. The trick is in the cost of the system, and the business model they're using to get the tubes on the ground.
Can you back that up with info greasy? Or is that currently an opinion?
I didn't see the bio-cam or any other info today, so it's an honest question.
About 99% of the shares are owned by an investment firm, and PALG is not commercial-ready. The firm trades zero to a few hundred shares a day.
Not a real good comparison on SP or company progress. We're way ahead in terms of progress, they are in SP. Unfortunate for the two guys that own the firm that their investment isn't worth much.
(edit: looks like it's 96%. Here's an article from last August:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/153409-petroalgae-riding-a-green-tide )
The meeting is Thursday and Friday this week...
http://www.nationalalgaeassociation.com/houston.html
When the market opens next we'll be about 65 hours closer to innoculation
$2 Trillion dollar algae market. Still blows me away...
Have a great weekend all!
beastie