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that's what it's at right now. 10 cents x 15 cents. 460 week 3 call for PCLN.
PCLN Weekly 460C @ .15
If I had tossing money I'd buy some 460 PCLN calls right now. I actually think MRC has a chance of making some of his money back today with a SPY close over 123 and a PCLN close over 460. but what the hell do I know. I just hope someone out there makes money.
I'm pretty good with picking lotto plays, I just rarely have the capital or the balls to do it. I'm playing with like .4% of what MRC put on the weeklies. I would love to have over 25k so I could make unlimited trades without having to worry about day trading restrictions. 3 trades per 5 days is hard to work with. MRC maybe you'd be willing to take a few grand and play some other people's suggestions? It can't hurt that much.
OMG you bought 1000 123 calls that expire today @ 70 cents a contract? That's so hardcore! I wish I had your kind of capital. I'm playing with 300 bucks and I bought options for January. I'll pray for you, but I hope you don't quit. Maybe you could just try some safer plays? I'd be happy to come up with some mid-term plays you might like that could get back your losses and be a lot safer than worrying about the movement of one day.
MRC - what do you need to make some money back? you have options expiring today?
AGREE - Id buy Jan12 GLD 170 Calls @ open price tomorrow.
You'd probably do fine just following UPB's plays.
I hope someone makes more money than me shorting VXX, with a nice OTM call hedge, lol.
Look at it this way. The market has been down and VXX is holding steady. Now if the market rallies each 10 points on the S&P by default should yield a full dollar on VXX + even more because of contango (down draft). One good day within the next week will yield that. I'm talking about simply overnight. The futures always wildly swing. If tomorrow futures open +10 VXX will be more than a dollar down. Granted for the past couple months VXX has been a buy at 39-42 and a sell at 46-49, but volatility has dropped while the market is going down. I anticipate an up move on the market and a down move on volatility. If you wanted to play the contrarian play, you would make a lot more money buying calls on vxx and hoping for ANOTHER down day tomorrow. Since volatility has been down, a large down day on the market will spike volatility hard, and you could make 1000% easy. If you wanted to play weeklies, I'd do a wider out of the money play on the weekly calls for vxx and put a larger amount closer to the money puts.
You could buy the 42 calls at 16 cents, and the 39 puts at .64. maybe 80% of your money on the puts.
Well I have 36 days, and if VXX moves 4$ the value of the 30PUT will quadruple. if the market doesnt rally in the next move up at least I have the premium, so when vxx inevitably falls due to contango, i will at least make a marginal gain over time. I doubt we're going to see a constant crash through the new years, and even if that did happen, volatility will eventually go down and contango will pull vxx down. keep in mind if the spy hits 130 vxx will be approaching the 20s.
There's no way I'd hold to expiration. I'm just looking for a 400% gain.
I also like the VXX wk4 36$ PUT around 42-44 cents, and i like for tomorrow the 38$ PUT @ .29
That's why I just shorted VXX. Even though I'm being retardedly safe by playing January, the market should take a normal correction UP and VXX will collapse. It's all about contango here. I think VXX is a great trade if you're playing weeklies. Make a fortune on it and share the wealth, lol.
Bought VXX Jan12 30 Puts @.32
UPB - What's your direction for SPY the coming week?
It's Contango. If SPY goes up VXX will head down hard. It should have gone down more on yesterdays move but didn't.
why spy calls? You think the market will go up this week? What about the gap to the downside?
SPY close above open confirms a buy signal according to candlestick analysis. The benchmark for purchasing would be at 119.71 the closing price. I still think tomorrow's action will determine the direction of the market. VIX needs to either break out or break down, and positive or negative news out of europe can throw a wrench in all the analysis in the world.
VIX is in an ascending triangle. I think tomorrow's the big day.
For what it's worth, I would be hesitant to take any position long or short on the market until after tomorrow's action. There are a number of bears who feel that tomorrow should be a pivot point that begins the next wave down. As far as candlestick analysis is concerned. Take the Spy:
The confirmation of a buy signal would be if todays closing price is higher than the open. We gapped up so much today that I doubt this will happen unless it ramps at the close to above 119.54. If it doesn't close higher, then tomorrow will need to close higher than the open to confirm the up trend. Some think tomorrow we'll see a gap up marking the top and then begin the next wave down. This would be bearish. It would be a much stronger bullish move to open down and rise up and rally higher through the day to a higher close. I'd go long or short on the market based on where we opened tomorrow. I'd aim to fill the gap and double down if market action made the market close lower or close higher.
Gap up tomorrow. small sell off into 11. Up the rest of the week.
That's what my magic 8-ball is telling me.
Rally into close, rally Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday. Crash next monday & Tuesday
the 14 calls went from $3.40 to $4.50 in one flash.
FMCN frozen again. lol
So if Euro is ramping up and the market is hugging the lows, then when the Euro starts dropping wouldn't that accelerate the crash?
117 what? Which level fills the gap and would mark a near turnaround point?
Euro rising. Here comes the ramp up?
Where's the eod ramp? Coming soon or called off?
S&P Plans to update banks
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/18/us-sp-bankratings-idUSTRE7AH22A20111118?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Business+News%29
Reuters) - Standard & Poor's plans to update its credit ratings for the world's 30 biggest banks within three weeks and may well mete out a few downgrades in the process, possibly surprising battered global bond markets.
Among the institutions that could be downgraded are Bank of America Corp (BAC.N), Citigroup Inc (C.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N), said Baylor Lancaster, an analyst at CreditSights Inc.
Spokesmen for the three banks declined to comment.
Some European banks could also be affected. On November 9, S&P downgraded its scores for the health of the banking industries in a number of countries, including Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands.
The updates in ratings are part of a major overhaul of S&P's methods for scoring the creditworthiness of some 750 banking groups.
The agency, the subject of intense criticism because its positive ratings for mortgage-backed securities played a major role in inflating the U.S. housing bubble, has been working on the changes for more than a year.
The updates are part of a broad push by S&P to improve its products and repair its reputation as its parent, McGraw-Hill Cos Inc (MHP.N), divides itself into two publicly traded companies.
S&P has taken pains to prepare the markets for the changes, but when it actually releases results for individual banks some downgrades could surprise, analysts say.
"One reason there could be surprises is that the new ratings method is very complex and it has been very difficult to simulate results," said Beate Muenstermann, a London-based research analyst for the money management arm of JPMorgan Chase & Co.
One area for potential surprise lies in differences between actions the agency may take on bank holding companies compared with grades for their operating units. Another is variations between long-term and short-term ratings.
S&P posted an advance notice of the coming changes in March 2010 and in January 2011 outlined its initial plans and requested comments.
Earlier this month the agency published its final criteria and said it expects 60 percent of all bank ratings to stay as they are, while 20 percent will go up one notch, 15 percent will fall by one notch and less than 5 percent will drop by two or more notches. One notch is one-third of a letter grade -- for example, the difference between a rating of "A" and a rating of "A-minus."
S&P has not said what proportion of downgrades it expects among only the biggest banks. It has said to expect regional differences in the results for all banks. Western Europe fared worse than Latin America and Asia in the November 9 changes in scores for banking industries by country.
S&P estimated in January that there would be more downgrades, but the agency lowered some ratings while the plan was being completed and also eased some of the criteria.
The agency plans to first announce its results for the 30 biggest banks, possibly as early as late this month, and then begin quickly rolling out its ratings for smaller banks.
The agency has been discussing the often-arcane mechanics of the new methodology with banks and institutional investors and has posted explanations and tutorials on public pages of its website: http:/www.standardandpoors.com/MicrositeHome/en/us/Microsites?mid=1245321770467#
"S&P has been extremely good at guiding the market through this change in the methodology," said Muenstermann.
How the changes are perceived by regulators could prove to more important to S&P than to the markets. Bond fund managers say the market has probably already priced in the information underlying S&P's research and judgments.
"The rating agencies tend to be laggards compared with prices," said Ryan Brist, a portfolio manager at Western Asset Management.
S&P's changes may even foretell a coming upturn for banks, he said. "Historically, ratings agencies tend to change their methodologies after large downward price movements in the market."
John Croft, a portfolio manager and director of investment grade research at Eaton Vance, said, "They seem to be fiddling around with their methodologies more than opining about the underlying credit strength of issuers."
Still, Croft gives the agency credit for trying to do better than in the past. Past ratings proved too high on such financial companies as Lehman Brothers, ABN AMRO and Wachovia, which either failed outright or were forced into mergers with stronger rivals.
"They are trying to rectify some of the problems that they have had in the past and to the extent that they do that, it is good," said Croft.
S&P expects to be able to use the system to more quickly change its ratings, such as when it sees new threats to bank funding or changes in how much government bailout support creditors can expect, said Jayan Dhru, a managing director at S&P, on Friday.
Dhru said S&P's ratings will also make better comparisons of banks around the world by applying consistent measurements of bank capital, something that is weak in the ratios banks report under international Basel standards designed by regulators. The Basel rules allow individual countries latitude in how their banks count capital.
The agency's performance is under scrutiny from regulators, who are designing ways to reduce the power and profits from the ratings business now enjoyed by S&P and its main competitor, Moody's Corp (MCO.N).
S&P made matters worse last week when its computer systems accidentally sent a note to some customers suggesting that the credit rating of the Republic of France had been downgraded in the midst of the European debt crisis.
S&P said later the error stemmed from a computer programing step it had taken last December with the banking industry country scores used in the first step of its new ratings method.
(Reporting by David Henry in New York; Editing by Steve Orlofsky)
If you're right I love you.
VIX down 4.7% and S&P +1?? Rally into close?
Market crash coming soon? Or rally up?
Art Cashin says 1224-1228 is resistance. 1209 is support, and 1214 is our key level to hold.
I totally lost the contest. I had VXX Puts. Now if I had VXX Calls...
Put your rally caps on.
I think the Euro and this market are gonna surge upwards!
Sold CNQR more loss. Bought more VXX 39 Puts @ .06
Time to pray.
Bought VXX 39 Puts @.05.
CNQR disappointing me today big time. Sold my puts for a loss and am holding the calls. Hopefully it will break out.
Contest: Bought 54 VXX 40 puts @.09 = $486
What do you think of what this guy says regarding CNQR:
"I see now...Cash flows missed and y/y they 10 minutes ago
are guiding from the $77m to $80m. 4% growth in cash flows y/y is not going to cut it for a company that doesn't make any money according to GAAP accounting and is only going to grow revenue 20+%. This is going to get hammered tomorrow. Buy puts at the open. CNQR will trade down $10 tomorrow"