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Excellent summary Byrd!
I actually think it is quite possible that the disclosure is accepted and the process continues, but find it highly unlikely that the POR will be accepted.
The judge seems to let everyone have their say, and let everything come to light in its own time (unless there is really a reason to jump on signing an order). And right now, that tendency along with her comment from the previous hearing that the EC would have enough time to do a complete review of all information, is a very good sign.
This will not even be close to be decided by the June 11 hearing in Washington State on the shareholders motion for a meeting to elect a new BOD! That is when the tide starts to really turn. I'll be there at that meeting, and look forward to a positive outcome.
In the meantime, Susman will be lining things up. And right now, the note holders are an ally, maybe not until the end, since we don't want to pay them from the estate, but they are pressing their hand against the FDIC right now, and that is very very good.
So while I am with everyone else on this board, I don't like seeing the PPS continue to slide downward, there will be several more bounces, no matter the outcome. I still strongly believe that there will be a very positive outcome for commons and preferreds! IMHO
Currently the NOLs are most certainly being gifted by WMI.
There is only one company that can file for the NOLs and it is not JPM. They didn't suffer one penny of loss on this deal. The NOLs belong entirely to WMI, period.
I don't think you were listening very closely to THJMW comments today.
Judge Walrath: "But why?"
Her response to Rosen's reasoning on the swiftness of WMI's DS filings:
Case Number: 08-12229
I've added it to my letter as well.
Right on Fish!
The judge is doing her job, and while the examiner would have been nice on the one had, she gave the EC what it really needed. It just needs to get to work and prove there are assets here!
I think our time is rapidly approaching.
I don't know that I would say all of the discovery has been done. There has been a lot of discovery done, but there has been no evaluation done, at least not officially.
I would say at least in part it will be to balance Solomon, but they may have moved to hire one either way.
If it is to provide a counter to Solomon, they maybe more evaluting the debtors value of the NOL's (as that is the only thing that can be reduced unfavorably for equity). Otherwise, if there are other assets that need to be evaluated there is more value there and that is good for equity. Cash is pretty easy, as a CPA, I'm qualified to do that.
As it stands, if claims are properly dismissed, (i.e. Marta Claim) and there are other assets, then equity is getting closer to the money. The NOL's are the big wild card, along with the remaining claims, Trust prefered securities and WMB bond holders.
Fish,
I'm with you in this regard, much was gained!
While granting of the examiner would have been good in one sense, it would of essentially ended exlusivity now, and this bogus "settlement".
Otherwise, Susman gained a lot of power and position yesterday, and I look forward to seeing him in action.
I hope the EC moves for lifting the FDIC stay, and ruling on the $4B! That would get some major movement, as everyone has been avoiding this happening!
Go Susman.
Clearly the market believes that denial (at least currently) of the appointment of an examiner is a bad thing.
Here is why I believe it was received negatively. If the examiner had been appointed, and received 150 days to examine; then that would have effectively ended the exclusivity of the debtors, stalled all negotiations, and dismissed the current POR. While none of that would have been directly ruled on, all equity would love it. It would have removed the cloud of doubt and concern regarding the current "Global Settlement". As long as it stands, the price will not run, period.
So the appointment of an examiner would have been good for equity, and the failed appointment is bad. However, the latitude granted to equity to pursue their own evaluation, to have full access to all current discovery, and the ability to file motions for further discovery certainly is good. It is possible this may even work out better, but I don't believe it is better just yet. The judge has certainly indicated that all parties have to "play nice" at least abide by certain ground rules she just laid out. If they don't I can't see her allowing any proposed settlement through.
The judge has also indicating there is time to accomplish a full examination by equity. She is being fair minded as far as I'm concerned. If she had granted the examiner, it would have been heavy handed, in favor of equity. She has acted judiciously in granting the EC and allowing all motions to be heard, by all parties, including the clown who hadn't even filed his contract with his claim (he was given another couple of weeks to update his claim and include his contract). In the end, it will be decided by a matter of law, pure and simple.
Susman must now put together a great case, and work with all parties involved. If there is a reason to deny the current proposal I believe the judge will not hesitate to rule in equities favor. However, there must be a reason to.
I personally am glad to see a good objection to the Marta claim in place, and would love to see the EC request a ruling on the FDIC stay, so that the $4B can be ruled on. The more claims and rulings resolved in our favor, the better. Then "settlement" will be for the unresolved portions and money has to be paid for this. If we can keep the $4B, and the NOL's, and receive something from JPM to drop the lawsuits, then all of equity, including commons are in the $$! The claims against the FDIC and JPM are certainly worth something, and we don't need to pay more $ to JPM for the privilege of being raped and pillaged further.
I believe brighter days are rapidly approaching. I pray that Susman stays on the job to continue the fight he has started. Right now EC just needs to have a sustained counsel to start applying true leverage, and I believe a realistic settlement will be forth coming. If JPM/FDIC/Debtors can continue to push them off the case, then no real traction can be gained.
Let's go Susman, show them what you are made of, and make us all happy (and rich!)
AIMO
I think the author forgot to mention that JPM wrote all of the loans down to zero, because they were gifted the bank and the assets. That makes it impossible for them to lose anything on this deal.
I liked the part on page 15:
"In connection with its hearings, the Senate Permanent Subcommitte also released e-mails gathered in its investigation that underscore the importance of investigating the relationship between Goldman Sachs, WMI, and WMB, particularly in light of the SEC's April 16th, 2010 commencement of a major civil action against Goldman Sachs for defrauding investors in the sale of subprime residential mortgage-backed securities."
". . . In addition, at times during 2008, Goldman Sachs recommended short selling of WMI shares and may have engaged in short sales of WMI securities for its own account - betting that the company's financial condition would deteriorate."
Another piece of the puzzle, now we are pursuing further information regarding the role of Goldman as part of the independent examiners evaluation!
Now we're cooking with gas! This is getting good in a hurry. It's nice to have our council finally getting to work!
RAWHIDE!
In general I will look to the EC for guidance. I believe they are looking to provide not just one or two alternatives, but an entirely new panel to be elected to the board. I think it will be an all or none approach, but not certain.
In the meantime, they are still the current board of directors, and as such, I was thinking it would be helpful to know more of our adversary, as that is what they appear to be.
Great Thought Biz!
I was just thinking it was time to look up who the current board members are.
Here is one link:
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/board.asp?ticker=WAMUQ:US
I'm not sure how many are still board members, as it lists Alan Fishman, and I'm pretty certian he didn't stay with WMI after the Sept, 2008 seizure.
Here is a starting point:
Stephen Frank
James Stever
Orin Smith
Regina Montoya
William Reed Jr.
Phillip Matthews
Michael Murphy
Margaret Mcquade
Larry Kellner
However, I'm quite certain no elections have been held to replace any that have left.
You seem to forget that JPM and their cronies have been shorting these shares, not accumulating these shares. They are controling the shares through this mechanism.
Also, the court restriction of purchasing more than 5% ownership includes subsidiaries.
Then to top it all off, TPG and affiliates own 51% of shares!
I'll be there next Sunday! Today I'm certainly celebrating the end of the tax season, and re-entering life again!
I'm a little bummed about all of the bashing of WAMU in the hearings, but I had a feeling that was part of the game, shift blame and focus onto Wamu and away from the big banks who have skated away with boat loads of wealth (even if they pay up big time).
Part of me thinks this was a strategic scheduling with some lobbying by the JPM crew to coordinate with this period to help further drive down and control share price. Maybe I'm just being to conspiritorial, but I'm learning there is a whole other power game at play, and WMI is just one piece of the pie.
I've survived tax season! Yeah
Now I'm looking for WMI to make a move, and get onto Parley for real.
Tell it to 'um!
The rest of the story is yet to be written, the EC version. Go Veneable!
J.P. Morgan officials have told other parties in the case the ban on TARP
recipients using the tax break is irrelevant, because it was WaMu that paid the
taxes on which the refund is based. J.P. Morgan has noted the refund wouldn't
go to it directly; it would sit in a receivership at the FDIC that also houses
the $1.9 billion JPM paid for WaMu's banking assets and deposits.
You're on fire today Fsshon! Great information as always! I always enjoy reading your posts.
Can't wait to see our EC really get rolling. I'm excited to think about a shareholders meeting in Seattle, whether this is settled or not! Wamu has a history of shareholders being more active and involved than any other public company that I know of. I think this case is showing the value of having an informed and involved shareholder. Wamu used to have someone to designated to communicate directly with the shareholder. We have been accustomed to being informed. All of this behind the scenes involvement and has helped lead to the EC that we currently have.
Power to the people!
Go team - it's good to be apart of something like this.
You're killing me dude. Best laugh of the night!
I guess you don't know who you are talking to, or how to read what you are responding to. Nor might I add, do you pay much attention to who is posting on this board.
Chiron has been here longer than I, and he adds much value to this board.
So I'll second his question, what is your reason on your earlier post?
Nope, Commons are going to get the best deal.
Amen to that!
TPG is still a significant shareholder!
I thought for a minute this was going to indicate they were getting involved. But alas, that was just listing all of the potential parties connected to WMI.
It would be nice to hear something from them. But I doubt that is going to happen.
Keep in mind these are two seperate entities, they do not total. WMI has accounted for the sub at book value in the account investment in Sub - 1.480B.
Thanks for the correction. When Rosen said Trust Preferred I just jumped in my mind to Wamhq. This actually sounds more correct based on the balance of the conversation at the hearing.
The big items discussed are essential items that WMI has included or exluded from their MOR. I'd say these items have been in agreement since the beginning. Then other then a couple of smaller items, the only real addition to the MOR statement is the NOL's.
This still puts the preferreds into the money, but not quite as far. May not bounce as much higher on Monday as I thought it might.
Fortunate or unfortunately because of the recent carryback tax law changes, the NOL is being turned into a tax refund as we speak. It is going to be cash in hand.
I say let's keep it, and not give it to JPM. They already stole enough assets.
I'm totally with you. This is a ploy to get our shares.
I'm only calculating what was offered, not where I think it will finally be settled.
I'm looking forward to having EC voice fully represented. Things are going to get interesting!
I'm in support of the growing sentiment that 100-200 seems likely even with this crappy offer.
My analysis has it closer to $300 per share.
See link, I posted on Wamkq.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=47787214
I want to start with I believe that this is a rediculous offer. But as I evaluate it the media is making it out to be even worse than it appears.
What was gained:
4B cash deposits - already included on MOR
780M first NOL 30% of 2.6B (I don't believe this was on MOR)
1.05B Second NOL 40.6% of 2.6B (This is not on MOR) See note 5 on the MOR discussing these tax refunds.
50M for Visa rights - not on MOR
179M intercompany notes also erases further outstanding Intercompany items
800M Trust Preferred that JPM assumes liability for
I calculate an additional 2.5B to the estate. Previously L>A by 1.38B. Now A>L by 1.12B. Preferreds account for 3.4B. Thus based on this worst case scenario offer, preferreds should see 33% of face value K's worth 8.33 a share and P's worth 333 a share.
I've seen other calculations ranging from zero to 20% of face value. While the MOR gives us some pretty good information, it is also a little light on details. This is also just a high level anaylsis.
I welcome responses. Especially discussing the compenents of this. I understand that there is much negotiating still to come, and I look forward to seeing how the EC in particular responds.
WAMU will rise! Like a heavy weight figher, just took one on the chin, now let's give 'em hell!
Talking about Reorg, does anyone know anything about HS Loan Corp that WMI is going to be receiving?
How much is it worth, and how does it fit into the big picture?
The only thing I can find is an old court document indicating it was a sub of WMB/WMI and several thousand $ had been collected by HS Loan corp into WMB, owed to WMI. Fairly nebulous.
Any other subs likely to come back to WMI?
I think this initial offer is only the tip of the ice burg.
That I definately agree with!
I appreciate your perspective. Very refreshing.
This has been a great ride, and this is simply another chapter I believe. I have met many great folks while following this stock, and I don't think we are done yet.
There have certainly been some opportunities that I have missed, looking for the big end. I still believe that something great can happen, but you are right, there are lots of opportunities along the way.
Even though I knew it would bounce, leaves a pit in the bottom of my stomach!
What a week!
I'm with you - hard to get the real work done! This is quite exciting times!
Crazy indeed. They'd drop it so fast, take the shares and you'd be left wondering what happened!
Thanks AJest,
This clears it up. I misunderstood what was being expunged. Bummer, but hopefully soon.
I still think the $39B needs to be expunged, or that it will be addressed as part of a global settlement.
I don't really like that they are stilling hanging around. Dealing with the IRS is one thing. Though, maybe WMI can pass the liability over to JPM as the claim is really concerning what happend at WMB and the mortgages.
You must have missed this one then!
http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0812229/0812229100304000000000004.pdf
I think this is huge. I've felt that there would be no settlement until some of these claims had been dismissed. After the IRS agreement with WMI last week, and now officially the $9B claim with the IRS is expunged, and also the $39B claim!
We're golden!
Now that's what I'm talking about!
I've thought for awhile that there would be no settlement until some of those claims were wiped out. A couple of the big ones, on the heals of the agreement betweem WMI and the IRS, officially wiping out the 9B claim and the 39B claim.
We're getting close.
This baby is going to fly soon, following the commons.
Well stated!
I couldn't agree more. Any way I read this, it screams settlement. I only wonder if they will wait clear until next Friday to deliver the settlement. Quite likely in my opinion.