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adxs is about to emerge and hasn't even begun yet ..silence could be for many reasons..buy out just one
as a recent investor the only concern i have is the commitment of management to see the end of phase 3..and it appears they are super committed to that..all else is noise..
yes, .. why should the market or anyone else care that a revolutionary treatment for cancer has entered the commercial space..it happens everyday..and adxs still owns 100% of its tech..why would anybody consider selling now..esp on the advice of a few anonymous mb posters. or one who sold and feels the need to broadcast it..don't forget there are still 7.5million shorted shares..the number is not growing and not shrinking because the stock is not trading..s/p will have to go up for shorts to cover.
share holders would be crazy to trade here..unless its a buy..
another charge at windmills
the gog study used for ema submission quualifies here as well..maybe even sooner then ema.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fda-to-allow-quicker-approval-of-some-promising-cancer-drugs-1512079761
i am a small investor but bought more yesterday..its cheaper than it was when the only thing adxs had going on was the results of a controversial phase 2 India trial..the market eval is nuts..but i have a few spare bucks to wait this out..simple strategy.
Lots of assumptions in that analysis.call it a worse case scenario that plays out 6 months from now assuming no news between now and then..which is very unlikely..and 50% dilution only 20 million making os of 60million..very small number for pre commercial bio.
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as long as share demand is relatively high accompanied with higher pps i'm good..could even see a correction..but looks like good volume with intra day highs exceeding close..the accumulation mode is serious..and seems pps friendly..
after three years and all the forecasting..no one on any stock board has ever accurately predicted any pps moving event for adxs..ever..its always something not even on the radar..
adxs has seen its value plummet despite big pharma partners, successful trials with several constructs for different cancer types and a p3 trial for hpv cervical ongoing which has orphan status from fda, as well as fast track in US and EU..seems like a conspiracy against immune therapy..and 500 million partnership with amgen and 300 million with celene + 10 million from stenhal a latin american distributor to pay phase 3 costs. go figure.only 40 million os and 80 million in bank ..plus some other interesting tidbits like imminent approval of pet vaccine for osteoscarcoma and ema filing in uk. a mrket cap of 120 million..insane market folks. shares are hard to find and shorts know they can control and cover once market adjusts share demand,but until then ...
how an investor feels about this stock is really a function of when the investor invested..for long term investors who have seen their value deteriorate the success and rate of return is one thing. the percent share of o/s owned by these folks is fairly low as the dilution has claimed most of the value..for more recent investors the story is quite different..upon approval of phase 3..the multiple increase will be 50-100x's the .16 buy-in..or maybe less.point is it will be a big win..and the arguments now are simply about the value of that multiple and what it means to a specific time based investment..
as a small retail investor the one thing the pps history has taught me is there is no rush to invest here..price is controlled with an iron fist and goes up and down on a mm's whim. an enviable accomplishment by the biggest share holder interest group..our short interests..translating potential to fulfillment is the adxs challenge..until then we wait and "talk among ourselves" as the church lady says.
which is fast tracked with orphan designation..hope they are leveraging the cures act..should speed things up..
shorts aren't releasing this until share demand takes it away from them..even then the bots are constantly looking for market weakness..news is the only thing that will move pps..30.00 buyout no where close to just cervical treatment market..let alone anal and head and neck..combo licensing etc..LM platform is not a separate product from the other constructs..its the manufacturing source for all adxs constructs..
the pps has been managed since nov 2014 and will continue to be as long as there is no real revenue..but it has taken 25% of company stock as short shares to do it..and i have not seen much in the way of capitulation even down here..so shorts aren't making as much as some posters claim..they are after all not profiting until they cover...which requires a ton of shares to be available on market and not just reselling the same short shares over and over. Look to share demand to break hold..doable by series of expected news..when any day now..with so few real shares available, so many short shares, spike up could be extreme..
seems there is a share grab..but this increase not engineered by small retail..10 million + shares and big rise ins pps past 2 days suggests beginning of sustained acquisition by deep pockets.
investors aren't really interested in cancer vaccines..until one is approved ..then its off to the races..until then or other news shorts have it..
it seems many here are discounting adxs based on ema approval times..and while i see this as as a big distraction from the imminent news surrounding petx her2 osteo construct..perhaps followed by an enriched sale/parterning on that constuct..followed by nice milestone payment from amgen..(2 to 3 months) followed by AA for axal cervical by the fda under new fda guidelines for cell therapies..Regenerative medicine therapies are defined in section 506(g)(8) of the FD&C Act as cell therapies, therapeutic tissue engineering products, human cell and tissue products..does LM platform qualify..i think so ..and this is the big wildcard here..
will comment on warrants at ~1.00 after next week..around december 1.
..the LM platform is adxs...the LM platform is the engine that targets the individual markers used by the vaccine to target multiple cancer cell markers by the listeria..its an empty vector of sorts which is filled with specific cancer cell markers..in the case of neo which has not yet dosed it first patient, the LM platform produces a individualized vaccine for that patients cancer..Because of new FDA policies announced yesterday at national press club by the head of fda for cell based therapies, adxs will receive early approval for AXAL..which does have orphan and fast track ..soon to be followed by other constructs..axal could receive approval to treat hpv types in anal, head and neck, and of course..cervical..all indicators have orphan and fast track designation from fda..
New f da rules just announced fit adxs constructs for early approval
Warrants up 9%..pps is a rouse
from advaxis website:Sandy Hayes, PhD, Associate Director of Research and Biomarker Lead at Advaxis, is the first author and presenter of “Baseline Serum Protein Levels Associated with Survival in Axalimogene Filolisbac (Axal)-Treated Metastatic Cervical Cancer Patients: The GOG/NRG-0265 Trial.” The poster will be presented at ESGO 2017, held Nov. 4 to 7 in Vienna, Austria, and will also be published in a supplement to the International Journal of Gynecological Cancer.
does anybody remember how long its been since a purchased call finished in the money? nice to see petx with a 19% one day gain.more to come no doubt..
while new to this space i have invested in other immuno treatments and have seen very promising companies attacked relentlessly and brought to their knees s/p wise while the actual results of testing proved very hopeful..i don't believe the relentless interest in seeing nwbo fail is because its ineffective and risky..everything obvious heretofore proves the opposite..for months this board is filled with lively discussion speculating on the status of the phase 3..and this is .16 to .17 stock play..its obvious nwbo vaccine's approval spells the death knell to radiation and chemo mongols as well as the huge assoc expense for prolongation of a miserable , low quality life. I am pleased to have a small part in seeing the chemo/rads become historical evidence of a barbarous science reminiscent of the ways we view medical practice at the end of 19th century..its just the sociopathic financial interests of big pharma in its mindless pursuit of financial gain will go unpunished..but retribution is a fools game..usher in the new promise of immuno-therapy to all of humanity instead.. believing in the best outcome for investors and all humanity.
like many small investors with limited means who own this stock and have great hope for what it offers humanity not to mention the investors..i'm thinking the wait could be coming to an end..commercial validation for LM therapy, start of phase 1 MINE with amgen..EU approval and perhaps followed by approvals in India and asia where adxs is an affordable treatment..but all these posts shout lets focus on near term buyout..not why most of us invested in the first place.
short interest in warrants has increased dramatically past several months..only way to generate needed volume for selling..same as stock..without short interest there would be little to no volume..easy to manipulate pre-revenue stock as everyone knows..but in this case the manipulation requires heavy short plays..spending borrowed warrants and shares..without short shares, trading would be almost non existent.
shorts are getting stingy with the warrants..big spread between bid and ask with very little volume..800 for 1.54 yesterday..compared to 1000 for 1.35 the day before.if adxs were in dire straits as some believe..i think warrants which expire October 2018 would not be getting protected..upside coming..and i believe soon.
don't hear any complaints from amgen, merck, astra, bmy..our current big pharma partners...these pre-adage 2014 prices are incredible..1000 warrants at 1.35/each..purchased sentiment aside..the future is bright..cost/benefit revolutionary..minimal side effects..revolutionary..effectiveness proven..rich pipeline...share price drop produced high anxiety..but fund repatriation before thanksgiving..big pharma revenue needs a boost..current immunology treatments too expensive..adxs offers alternative..
without some news that affirms adxs LM platform as a revenue driver the shorts own the share price. we are already trading at pre adage price from November 2014..and not much support for share price. we are not at the bottom..the bottom for pre-adage investment saw share price around 2.70 and warrants at a dollar..i know this as that is when i took a much bigger position..now i am thinking, in the absence of affirming news that same opportunity may present itself once more..it is astonishing..esp considering the progress made in the last 3 years..there are many examples of successful biotech stocks being torpedoed before run-up..most of us believe that about adxs..but time without affirming news is on the side of our short interest..
blue that scenario is most unlikely..there are in fact many more shares than warrants..if demand were to increase for warrants based on your theory, it would drive the price of warrants up as their value is based on future expectation of the stock price and not the current stock price which we all agree is a meaningless indicator. It is in some ways an achilles heal of shorts..they are harder to manipulate and control because there are so few..for an oppressed stock like adxs warrants are the best play ..if you believe adxs will be up substantially within a year or back on otc ..but you can always trade them for shares at 5.00 anytime between now and the next 12 months..or sell them when they double or triple while the stock price may only realise smaller increases..Its the best way to afford long term position..and down here they are gold..with a huge upside potential..gltal..but realize warrants are a much better risk reward proposition if you believe in adxs future but also want to limit your risk.
I moved from stock to warrants today.
At these prices a no brainer
not many shares available for shorting according to interactive broker..
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?key=adxs&cntry=usa&tag=United+States&ib_entity=llc&ln=&asset=&f=4587&conf=am&amref=1
why is there no resistance..stock being torpedoed and no resistance being offered..no counter attack at these absurd levels..end of day take down has become standard fare..can this be about adxs and potential market share of cervical cancer treatments..given the choice i see adxs treatment much better alt than soc..taking this down is a minor cost..sacrificing a few stooges or SEC fine chump change compared to adxs threat to cervical hpv treatment market share..not to mention other hpv cancers..the LM platform works..
Expectations about short interest is foolish..just like pps..riding to the end..
"There is a major paradigm shift happening now as demonstrated by both the medical and regulatory community. To quote the head of the FDA: In just several decades, gene therapy has gone from being a promising concept to a practical solution to deadly and largely untreatable forms of cancer,” said FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, M.D. “This approval demonstrates the continued momentum of this promising new area of medicine and we’re committed to supporting and helping expedite the development of these products.
So keeping this real IMO SOC for cancer is no longer the gold standard. Facts are we have a safer therapy, does not make patients sick, cost effective compared to $400-$700K for therapy and a survial rate that is equal to or better than SOC. "
very well stated post from nwbo ymb dennis..thank you.
for the pps to tank,there does not need to be any bad news obviously..it appears there only needs to be no news and a market dominated by short interest who must buy 25% of the company just to cover. until events on the horizon become reality the buy and sell action of the stock is totally in the hands of our biggest investor..10 million short shares or 25% of the company..and yet this huge interest group need not declare their positions..
3 billion buyout grounds for class action lawsuit
.I can wait no hurry