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Augieboo, I forgot to mention that I have had you on neglect, pay no attention to, disreguard, slight, demote, snub, but nothing seems to work, though I have not tried filter yet. Does the coffee really come out better? <G>
Benj
Augie,
I once did some landscaping for the Alfred Hitchcock family when I was young and dug up about six small, pearl handled forks, spoons and knives in the dirt left there by some of the kids playing tea party. They had been missing for quite some time and apparantly were worth about $15,000 each. Alfred and his wife and family were great, but probably not at football.
Benj
Bernard.....Reguarding "The NEM story". I read and article several months ago and I believe that some of the officials of NEM stated that they were still hedged and that it may take them 2-3 years to become fully unhedged.
Benj
Mlsoft......Thanks for that well thought out and nicely put reply. Sounds very plausible the way you describe it.
Good trading to you,
Benj
Mlsoft....reguarding the PPT: I was wondering, and please forgive me for my ignorance on the subject, have you ever calculated the amount of money it would take to move a market 10 to 30 %. I have not, but it seems that it would be substantial to say the least. Most people seem to agree that the existance of the PPT cannot be proven but you seem to rely quite heavily on its existance and effect on the markets. Don't get me wrong. I believe that there is a PPT in some form but it seems that the direction of the massive amounts of money to prop up a market to the extent that you believe in should be detectable in some tangible way. Or, do you believe that the gov. simply primes the pump?
Benj
D Brasco..... Hatred has nothing to do with it. I thought it was just me but you seem to be irritating to others as well. People take shots at you because, to embellish on a SI posters take, you are a sitting Donny the Duck.
BTW...Do you think you may have a Don Juan complex?
mainehiker... The system is fixed and broken? Sounds like my mechanic has been at work again. <g> I do not think we will see a healthy bull for a long time. This is a trading market and has been for some time. I don't know if you are talking LTBH, but I agree with Zeev in that the days of LTBH are over as a strategy for making money, unfortunately. This market is more of a game than it ever has been and ruled by flocks of traders large and small to the detriment of the mom's and pop's and really the general public at large that knows nothing about it.
By the way, I found New Zealand to be fantastic but the sun is intense (no ozone) and the sandflies will eat you alive if you sit still.
JMHO, Benj
"Intel didn't"
No kidding. I wonder if Barrett and Bryant talk to each other.
Benj
True, why is that, J?
Sarai, the markets will come out of the trenches at some point. When all the excesses ( fraud, money laundering, unreliable bookkeeping, on and on) get wrung out of the system to a reasonable degree and the market is no longer pushed around into ridiculous swings by traders, hedge funds, PPT, M M's and so on, not to mention a visible economic recovery, only then will John and Jane come out and feel that the market makes some kind of sense
to them. By the way, for me, it has been very beneficial to get rid of the LTBH's (lettuce, tomatoe, bacon hamburger) as I have lost 25 lbs. At least something is going in the right direction. <G> Benj
Good move I think. Did you know that at one point the citizens of South Africa could hire convicts for about
$1.oo a day.
Yeah, I heard Donny Brasco was a hunk...of something. And an illiterate hunk of something.
Mlsoft,
I did not mean to imply that I wanted to see JPM or C fail because, as you rightly feel, the ramifications could be so huge that it might tip the world off it's axis and send us all crashing to bits. I have never shorted a stock, a la Zeev Hed (philosophically a problem for me I guess), But I do applaud your willingness to give up your potential short gains to save our economy. <G>
Benj
"AG's actions are to save the money center banks"
I think you're right, Mlsoft, but is he not trying to save a monster he helped create? Were not AG and Rubin the champions of the unregulated derivative market?
JMHO, Benj
Zeev stated that he tries to be right 60 % of the time. Better than a coin toss but not exacty awe inspiring aspirations. Though many have, I don't think Zeev would apply the term "guru" to himself. I may be wrong though.
Is Hussman a thumbsucker?
....and they swam and they swam right over the dam......
Mainehiker, I stopped reading Barron's before that and in hindsight I am glad I did not see that article as it might have had me second guessing my plan to liguidate. <G> Turned out to be a fine call on Faber's part. My guts told me to start selling in november '99 and continued thru feb 2000. Did not catch the whole ride but I have seen a slaughter house and did not want to end up there. Lost a finger here and a toe there though, Benj
LOL....now time for the Niners/Rams...a couch potatoe day.
Benj
Why do people read Barron's? Have they ever been right on anything? JMHO.....back to the Raider/Bills shootout.
Benj
George, I have been talking with seemingly intelligent people about the debt/credit bubble for 2-3 yrs and all I would usually get back is a blank stare. I hear more talk of it now but I think the majority is still unaware or does not believe it.
Benj
Meant to say AJC commentary....I'm challenged.
Benj
augieboo,
Sound advice. I had been dreading the arrival of Sept, Oct for quite awhile. I am trading challenged and, as in Judo, know just enough to get killed. I am sitting on my hands-they are flat as pancakes- because I do not know what I am good at but I do know what I am NOT good at and I see that spelling is another one. I am English challenged.
Thanks for providing the laughs with you're ABJ comentary.
Benj
"Zeev,
You'er right about T. IMO they have a knack for destroying everything they touch and I regret Having had to experience it the hard way, not ever even owning the stock.
Benj
Zeev,
Your patience, magnanimity, and generosity are unparalleled, not to mention your trading skills.
Don't lose it now. <G>
Benj
"AMD is getting its but kicked by Intel"
Intel, Dell or somebody better throw AMD some bones. They need to be kept around to keep the monopoly bashers at bay
IMO. Dell is Gaining market share but is still only making pennies on the dollar, let alone bring in options and the rest into the equation. FWIW I still have some shares left over from my original purchase in '94. How the heck did that happen? Better dust them off.
All IMHO
marginnayan,
You are right. The participation is much greater these days and thus the destruction of wealth more vast. I guess my post was more thematic than based on percentages. I also forgot to mention the really innocent people who were truely decieved. That is the real tragedy. Many friends and family members have been wiped out or severely damaged. If my post came across as unsympathetic it was unintended.
To all the people who are shocked at the fraud and scandal in the corporate, brokerage, Wall street, analyst, whatever, world, all I can say is that this is nothing new and just part of the cycle. One of my longtime brokers, who is not a "company man" at 75 and a good TA guy on par with some here, was telling me that when he became a broker long ago the stock market and brokerages were reguarded with less esteem than the local cathouse. In the roaring nineties the Blodgets and Meekers were considered gods and why not, they were making people tons of money and many held on to the money. I think people were still throwing dough at the market even after the Washington Post article where Blodgets' remarks to his assistant were overheard. She asked him why he was puting a strong buy on Amazon and he replied that it was to distiguish it from all the other pieces of ____ that they had buys on. Excesses breed excessive cultures. I did not hear many complaining when they were making lots of money even though,in the back of their minds, they must have known it would end badly. It did and now we have come full circle, it appears, where many trust nothing. I for one cannot trust any numbers, government included, and thus FA has become meaningless to me as has the term "investment" in most cases. It is truely sad that the majority, blinded by greed or ignorance or gullibility or just plain apathy, were crushed when the pyramid crumbled and the myriad of scandals revealed. The cycle will continue, however, as we wash out the dirty laundry and clean house.
I am personally looking forward to a time when "investing" is relevant again and hope it is sooner and not ten years away. Someone here, don't remember who, said that maybe when there is nothing to be optimistic about it's time to be optimistic. Hmmmm........I like it.
FWIW and JMHO
Benj
"Bush's polcies are unamerican "
That statement is a real Laugh. They are exactly American, not that I agree with them, if your stated motive is correct. It may well be. But tell me, who is going to give up their gas guzzling vehicles or their 2-4 hour commutes to work? The hypocrisy in this country runs deep and thick. I don't mean to imply that YOU are a hypocrite. Nice layout of the cartel though.
My apologies for the politics.
Benj
Jdaasoc,
I am seeing the same evidence of this slowdown in several of my friends businessses here in California. One has some high end restaurants in San diego and business is down 15-20 % from last year and last year was down from the previous. He has lowered the wine prices to reflect retail which is less than the markup at a produce stand. The story is the same with retail, etc. Very challenging times indeed. Benj
Ears are throbbing from that giant sucking sound. Dell defies gravity, an enigma for a company that works its rear off to make a small profit.
"when you're bodies that badly broken never mind. When it keels over, throw it in the ground and get another one."
Wow.......You know how to do this? Why would you be day trading? <g> I think you are right about the proliferation and misuse of drugs though. My dad, who was a surgeon, had to go down and get his best friend out of the psych ward because the combination of drugs he was prescribed made him into a nut. Just another patient in the assembly line.
"my gut does better than my mind"
Likewise, Mlsoft. Mine got me mostly out of the market in early 2000 with a small amount of core positions left, a mistake. I and the market have whittled those down ever since. I came up with the currently popular market scenario about a year ago, after about a year hiatus from the market ( to the glee of my wife ), but I as well feel that this now is unlikely to unfold and that a slow grind, as I think you suggest, is in the cards. At least that is what my gut is doing. However, I believe also that this is a murphy's market and anything can happen. I for one did not expect a 3000 point rall after 9/27.
By the way, did you ever take a look at Nova Gold? I thought .28 cents was a good price. Good luck, Benj
Train,
It is amazing how many people, CEO's and the like, did not see the wall before they hit it. The writing was on it when the Lucents and Nortels of the world became the Banks for the .coms.
Benj
Mlsoft...I do not doubt that many others are doing the same, But when Chambers came on CNBC, looked sincerely into the camera, and said that he woud never sell the inventory that he was about to write off....well the veil of sincerity wore thinner and thinner as time played out.I was at a party with an analyst from San Francisco who was touted by the Wall Street Jounal at one time as one of the top analysts is the country. He told me that the economy was turning around because Cisco was going to earn 4 cents for the quarter. This was a few quarters ago. I replied that he must be speaking of proforma because the bottom line said they were going to lose 2 cents, but that I could be wrong. He looked flabbergasted and assured me he was not talking about proforma results. We finally dropped the subject but both agreed to check it out again on our own. I turned out to be wrong.... Cisco actually lost 4 cents that quarter. The point is that this was one of his his main companies and telling his clients that happy days were here again because Cisco was making money again. When I saw him again he declined to bring up the subject. I had never had a high reguard for analysts but this was the proverbial straw. Anyway, I appreciate your views as well as many others on this thread. I just wish my posts looked like I type them before they are printed and all bunched up. Good luck to all. Benj
"including the sale of previously charged off inventory as profits using a zero cost basis"Mlsoft, You would not be referring to Cisco by any chance, would you?Benj