seems a breakeven day is just not in the cards.

If market rallys at the end of day and closes at or near highs for the day, i would view this as a good sign. 2 days in a row of strong action is something that hasnt happened in a long time. IF otoh, market falls apart at eod, we are in for it.

another funny thought. Everyone and i mean everyone said the market would rally friday, whether its seemingly good store sales or just a technical bounce. I bet few folks like us bought this morning or wednesday late for that matter. No one expects this to be the beginning of a large year end rally, only a pause until selling pressure starts again next week or just a period of backing and filling. What if this does turn out to be the rally we were waiting for and what if the market makes new highs by eoy. Seems impossilbe, right?

If you date starting before the 2001-02 crash, you get a better look of what i mean. And if you start the time span on naz from 5000, there is not doubt that many have yet to recover. Regarding funds, this is an argument for managers and not for indices.

It was at the end of 1999 and right before y2k that dow went thru 10k and naz thru 2k. Figuring dow is 13k now thats the less 30% return over 8 years, probably about the rate of the average money market fund over the same period.
Lets say naz at 2600 now, same return.
So unless we are great market timers or great stock pickers, how does one make money at this? I bet no one really tracks their returns over time the way i did above. There is one other thing about this that comes to mind today. The guys who dont invest and stayed in cash probably better have better piece of mind over time.

are you still watching HLIT. Off 20% since offering. Looks like one point for bad stock market period, one point for offering and one point for the apparent off the books instituional sale last week. When the market goes up, i think HLIT is acting very well. Sort of mirroring what the four horsemen are doing. Any opinions here?

I hear ya.

If dow goes to 12k, how does google not go to 500s for example? There will be margin calls and the pressure will be on to sell winners too. Thats my thought. So if one still has powder, one should keep it dry. If one has to switch, does one switch out of beaten down groups who you think has value to buy high flyers now?? dunno which will work.

I think the US currency will keep falling now and this fall is not warranted by economics but by pegged currencies and relatively high interest rates in some areas of the world that draw capital to them. US must cut now to stimulate growth but with the dollar pegs and high rates this will cause dollar to fall further which is in no ones interest at this point. Euros risk is a whiff of inflation if the do it--if they dont they will pay an economic price as their economies begin to falter under the weight of the euro. I am thinking Euro way overvalued here on fundys and this is something they need to take on in conjunciton with the US. I am not an economist and this is nothing more than an educated guess.

the big four still up google, apple, rimm and amazon..

My gut says we need google below 600 now before this all over.
Also goldman needs to go back to august lows too.

12k here we come, methinks? Anyone see anything in this action that suggests a bottom???

eod collapse underway in earnest now.

last i looked oil went down on bad numbers and not thru $100 as expect---not yet anyway. Although in the long run it might be better to take the full hit now in the markets over the next week or two, perhaps we do get a snap back rally here that continues thru friday and we get that TG rally that happens 85% of the time.

edit I think cnbc gal just confirmed this on cnbc that TG is usually up. Analyst gal said that the black friday guestimates starting on friday will be a key influence of market direction.

Correct me if i am wrong but i cant remember a TG holiday where we didnt have light volume, rallies. I am thinking we are looking at 1000 point decline between now and ??? which will create that bottom we can launch from. In the meantime, unless one is timble and willing to try to time things, holding on is about all an investor can do.

and i have a barrel of oil, a cup of starbucks and half dollar (formerly whole dollar)

we always get a TG rally from wednesday into black friday. At least markets might calm down. Someone said that the market was perilously close to a Dow Theory sell call whatever that is.

bcsi up $5 in premarket

No you're not! I am.

http://www.investorhives.com/big_pic.php?fname=uploaded_files2%2FKirk344.png&caption=Click%20to%20see%20full%20sized%20chart%20courtesy%20of%20stockcharts.com&msgid=574

money going to bonds coming out of stocks and going to the safest fixed income investments. Bank stocks, reits, continue to get killed.
I know you follow the semis. Do you think RTS on SI is right that we are at or very near a bottom? Do you follow the RSI charts he does. My gut says big bets should be made over the next month. I am thinking go for the smh and take the risk of making a bad pick out of the equation.

the dollar was this weak against euro currencies in 98? i am not sure about that.

this last hour may hurt bigtime. Man we could use a strong close for a change.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24064342

Man, this late afternoon selling is relentless. Market trying to hold its own as i write, but as always expecting the worse. If its foreign money coming out, why dont those dudes just get some sleep already.

Thats more or less what fidelity told me. I will say one thing to the thread, particularly the traders. When you notice what appears to be a misprint high or low price, it is worth the shot to either buy or sell the stock. I have seen it happen both ways, more so like HLIT on the downside. I guess technology being what it is today, there are no misprints anymore or only very few. I would never have known what happened unless i was looking at rtq at the open.
I will go one step further. I bet traders/hedgies have a program that follows this and are the one who started shorting the stock when they saw this knowing where it was headed. From your perspective, does this action yesterday hurt the stock or do all the new shorts cover after making a quickie yesterday? In any case, its just another reason for the little guy not to trade stocks at all on a short term basis. I was a broker at EFHutton back in the 70s and i got to watch all sorts of manipulation back then in a very unregulated environment. '
I even rememmber selling tax shelters in cattle ranches that were supposed to produce tax losses and had to tell the customers that they had lost all their money because the cattle had all died of some rare disease.

I went to my broker fidelity and questioned the $10.35 low for HLIT that showed up at 9:35am. According to them HLIT traded at $10.35 at 9:35AM even though subsequent trade was at 11 or so. Some instituion or underwriter ML dumped at opening and took out all the bids, then stock spent the rest of the day tracking down to that price. Does this make sense to anyone? This is not the first time i saw this happen.

HLIT another thought from the yahoo board which sounds about right to me. It also signals to me if true that this is a buying opp as institutions scoop up remaining shares. REmember i said that i saw the low of day $10.35 at the opening. I have seen that happen before and stock always manages to get there. Is it paranoia for me to suggest that this is some sort of signal.

"That leaves Merrill disposing of excess inventory it acquired by guaranteeing the HLIT secondary would be sold. It also explains why they would issue a neutral opinion on HLIT yesterday if they knew they were going to dispose of excess shares today. Imagine what would have happened if Merrill had put out a "strong buy " recommendation on HLIT yesterday, then sold their excess inventory today.

One might think Merrill would not dispose of excess inventory so soon because that would not be supporting the secondary price. However, if the secondary went to institutions, not traders, they might not be that upset at the chance to pick up some cheap shares in a temporary market aberration and would tolerate, even welcome, Merrill's actions. "

Only thing i could find on the yahoo chat group is that there may be an acquisition using the fresh money obtained from the secondary offering. Would make sense that this would make stock go down initially but actually werent some folks speculating that thats what the money would be used for so it should be in the price?

what are mrus detected in an adware scan? I delete the spyware but mru is listed as not critical.

happened to me too and i had cleaned my computer yesterday. I would use your software to scan and clean again.

did you see anything today on hlit? big hit this morning on no news as far as i can tell.

PS on open i did see a low price of 10.35 on rtq at fidelity. They later changed it but whenever i have seen this before stock has managed to get there somehow. Almost like a signal.

son an enigma again today. would have expected it to run after last weeks good news and good action. Never get it with sonus.

think we are mostly looking in tech at the bounce of the high flyers. Market making me nervous as most stocks show very small gains with dow up 165 and naz up 50. I think todays rally will fail or be a one day wonder unless smaller tech and chips participate more fully. I dont think we will have two tiers as we did before.

as an fyi, i heard an analyst today say the the reason GS was not infected by subprime is because they had superior risk mgt in place and thats based on technology that most of the rest just didnt have. If cutbacks in IT spending are anything more than a pause caused by current distress, i will be shocked. I bet folks like Jamie Dimon over at JPM are scrambling to remake their risk mgt over in goldmans image. The failure was too little tech, not too much. We shall see.

A poster using TA wrote me that SMH in a head and shoulders pattern indicating further downward movement. I cant imagine Google et al going up if this plays out for chips. That two tiered naz we have seen since this summer is over imho.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24044062

Momo is an old term. I think a lot of folks were chasing google et al. and ignoring what we consider to be growth companies in tech at a reasonable multiple. I put chips in that group. I also think that foreign money was chasing these companies as well. Its anecodotal evidence i have picked up listenting to bloomberg and cnbc.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESOXX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ESOXX&t=my

If you can call the bottom on this chart.. i guess around 400-420 or so--you might find the overall bottom here and we are very close. The guys who were cautious are now the heroes but after all they are all a bunch of jokers who are coming out now after months of being ridiculed.
Because i follow chips i saw this coming i guess. I kept asking wahz how can this be google at 750 and amat at 18?? Well yesterday amat was up a buck and sons went up while high flyers continued to crash. The momo guys got crushed as did foreign players looking for growth in the US with all those dollars they held. There was a bubble there caused by the other bubbles and the falling dollar. That foreign money will now look for safe havens here. Watch what they buy. Its also a stock pickers market re: financials. I bet WM gets bought by a white knight in order to save them. Same with some others with big exposure. Goldman Sachs is always a buy and Lehman is strong too. Merrill might end up as a takeover candidate.
Back to the charts. If the soxx holds at 420, they will start the advance even as the high fliers fall. Maybe oil is in a bubble too and about ready to fall for similar reasons why growth died last week.
As for wahz, i think its always been growth at reasonable multiples. The bulk of his stocks should do fine from here.

MOMO dudes got screwed by bernanke, much the same way the shorts did. BB will analyse the data and if the economy softens as expected we will get relief in december. If banking system shows stuctural faults, they will intervene sooner. If the ship rights itself, the fed will stand pat. None of these particularly bad for us. I do worry a bit about contagion from banking into other areas like tech. Thats what the cisco drop and the crash below is all about.



google down 30 and about 75 points from high.

rimm down 11 and about 25 from its high

aapl down 10 and about 27 from its high

bidu down 15 and about 88 points from its high

Problem is that if growth is 25-40 in this space growth of 35 causes stock to go down. Anyone want to explain qcom to me? No one even sure if analysts estimates that were supposedly missed included nokia amounts being held back or not. this is the 21st century, no? No excuse here.

picked up some more hlit at 11.34. I think the timing of the additional stock offering turned out terrible but stock is holding up here and there is strong institutional participation. I have a good feeling on this one.
Am looking at PMCS here as well. You make a good point about foreign business. Hell it applies to cisco too where cisco only went down because it said Finserv IT was slowing. Hell with them being preoccupied who could expect otherwise.

if anyone looking for buypoints for former hot stocks. I would add summer market lows to october/early all time highs and divided by two. And then i would dollar cost average in over several months, just in case there was further retracement. Which of the hot three stocks aapl, goog and rimm do you think has best long term prospects? I am thinking of first entry point into goog at $625.

Last [Tick] 7.34[ - ]
Change 0.40
% Change 5.76%

Imagine if market rallies, we may get a real kick for sons and amat. Life is strange. All this time naz goes up and my stocks languish. Now market tanks and I am in good shape. I have been saying for some time market could not continue this way with narrow leadership and no soxx or other stories. Things seem to have changed here.

http://siliconinvestor.advfn.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=24041141

qqqq makeup and why averages are tanking while many stocks seem to be reversing or at least building a base.