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Oh no 4 messages were deleted.
I presume someone took the misunderstanding around 1000k being a million too seriously and an exchange followed.
OT (laugh): Where did the bashers go?
N=6 (of 29). Reason for PR is as suspected- wanted to discuss current status at conference.
IMO
Perhaps JP wanted to discuss the "interim" results (perhaps they biopsied 6 or 10 or 14 of the 29) with the potential investors at the FBR conference today and in the spirit of Reg FD felt he had to disclose what he was going to discuss.
I agree the exact # of the 29 would have been helpful.
oops i just read that rstor1 put the same thing. i got dibs on seconding his answer.
I think you should read some of ELN's filings regarding the JV and I think your numbers would be a lot different.
Having been an investment banker for a number of years and having developed the skills to model things from here to eternity (and having been the only one i know of to show via modelling that IMA was worth 30s not 60s)- Tysabri has to get well above 10 B in same immenently for the valuation of $27 to hold and Alz has to work. i think both are far more unlikely than likely.
you are right. i didnt even mention the potential safety issues with the drug which my diligence includes items like intracranial bleed.
i am thrilled your wife is doing better. i am mistaken and associated that with you being optimistic the stock/equity. my bad.
what are you making?
On my recent trip i had a guilty pleasure and ate at a restaurant my wife would never go for in a million years: Cracker Barrel. LOL. I presume what you are making is a little more impressive though perhaps only equally as tasty.
OT ELN: zipjet.
I suspect we might have differing opinions on ELN- consider the following:
i) ELN trades at over 13x this year's revs while BIIB trades at 4x and BIIB makes money- if you want to own Tysabri why not own BIIB- they have the same enterprise value (market cap plus debt less cash) but with BIIB you get profitability, Avonex and Rituxan.
ii) This alzheimers trial has less than a 5% chance of working. WYE originally stated that they would only start a PIII if the PII interim look was close to stat sig or trend or whatever. then in WYE erns call they said they started a PIII based on PII results, their belief in their scientists and immunology platform and a large unmet medical need- sounds very watered down to me
iii) why is the PIII trial design 40x ish larger than PII if signal from PII was so clean?
iv) what the hell is going on with the endpoints BS?
v) why is ELN not letting certain people into their investor day? last company this happened with i know of was hiding something.
vi) Tysabri numbers from analyst estimates are coming down
vii) the recent report out yesterday from Caris is decent in that if this alz trial fails stock is worth teens at best.
viii) wildcard- what happens if a problem occurs with tysabri again?
ix) sentiment is in the stratosphere- last stock i saw sentiment this high in and i was short it was IMA in the 60s (they had a lot of problems like 7x debt/ebitda, overpaying for acquisitions, no core organic growth)- i basically told Mark Richter from Jefferies that he was dead wrong on this- stock hit 20s a few months later and that guy no longer shows up at Jefferies (did he lose his job over that shitshow?).
Careful.
I am still alive- travelling a lot- between home office and NY as you know (they might put on my tombstone "the guy who wouldn't move to NY") and was visiting a company yesterday in Cleveland.
Still here, still alive, doing fine.
Call me if you want.
was that from their erns call a week or so ago or a more recent one? thanks
i think you should listen to the last conference call again.
I like the name a lot. Who knows when it will pop? It seems to me that right now biotech names with prospects for a "deal" and i mean financing generating banking revs are the ones that are doing well or outperforming their fundamental prospects. We're not in that boat right now.
I am hopeful for a partnership on good terms- sounds like if he doesnt get the terms he wants (e.g. someone wants more derisking data-wise), he may do a small raise. Though I would prefer a partnership, a samll raise is of little consequence to stock price b/c current large holders should "pony up" and terms would be tight.
Though i trade a lot of stuff around (and i mean to the tune of 500MM to a million shares a day)- this one is in the lockbox.
It looks as solid as ever and many of us have scrubbed the sector and are at a loss what large pharma could buy/partner besides this and a limited few others- stay focused on the following parameters: strong efficacy, a dramatic improvement over current therapy, a good safety profile and a large addressable market- we have all of these. few do.
You have to ask yourself why ELN was trying for NTB in the first place and if the EMEA de-emphasizing it is a good thing.
One thing that confuses me is that bulls in this name say that starting a PIII trial automatically means the PII results at the interim look showed a "strong" trend. If this were the case, (i) why are the PIII trials well over 10x the size per arm and (ii) why in WYE's conference call did WYE CHANGE their reasoning for starting the PIIIs from (something like) only going to start it if PII were really good TO we are starting PIII b/c of (something like) encouraging trend, our immunology platform is great and there is a need for more drugs in the space (doesnt this sound watered down to you?)
These market makers suck. They put up 100 a side when it should be thousands.
Sirtris? are you kidding me? boy is big pharma getting desperate.
Yes, someone was trickling it down from $8.83 to $8.50 on 7k shares and then the ploth buy was posted and it bounced $.23 pretty rapidly. IMO i think these brokers cant find anyone to buy or sell so their market makers are trying to jerk it around to generate some desperate action.
Wow 12k shares traded. Punk and Opco are overwhelming with their ability to generate interest in this name. Let's get some real banks involved.
For those who are concerned about Joe (i think he is as forthcoming as they come)- take a look at ELN- what a joke. These guys sit on discontinued Alz trial news for 2 weeks and slide out the news after AAN.
These ELN scumbags sat on the discontinued trial news for 2 weeks.
Take a look at the Avant news. $40 MM upfront and $380 MM or so in milestones and royalties. Stock up 50% AH. Big pharma starting to get aggressive.
Looks like Opco has them on the road next week. Opco, CIBC, Opco, whatever the hell they call themselves these days.
I believe and again preface this as my opinion that Orbimed, Great Point and possibly one of the 200-300k funds are out. Many of those are having massive redemption issues IMO.
This whole hypothecating about whether the insider buy was a positive signal or trying to lure in other investors is a trivial topic when you dont have any skin in the game.
Truly amazing given I am aware of a cumulative 400k shares (thus there had to have been 600k of long selling given that 200k net were also covered) were purchased during that time frame. I am now very suspicious that a few of the smaller fish institutions that are left are now out.
Very well thought out post.
FWIW I heard a rumor today that some small holders/traders sold some shares b/c they were concerned about safety and some supposed data coming in June which may affect safety.
I would point out two things to them: (i) the data in June is top-line endo data and (ii) the safety of Proellex was vetted with the March 31 press release discussing patients on numerous subsequent cycles- this would be of much more importance than a 3-4 month endo study, which is duplicating what has been done in the past with the prior endo study.
Any new guesses on short interest. Last one was 1.257 MM if i recall correctly. this number out tomorrow will be for a trade date of 3/26 (vs 3/11 for last #)- so the number is actually stale by 9 days.
My guess is 1.4 MM short. this would be an increase of 150k out of 1.4 MM traded between 3/11-3/26.
yes there are 2 items- one called realized vol and one called implied vol. implied vol is now ~80 but realized vol historically has been well below 80. one may want to use that as a proxy for an estimated long-term implied vol.
My only point was long-term vol is more mean reverting than short-term vol and short term vol on this (lets say over the last year or so) is far above avg.
Ok i am done. have a good day.
I just did the math on BBerg- given an 80 vol where current Implied Vol is the optionality is worth $2.70. To have 80 vol over a 7 year life is too high. If you do 30-40 vol you get a price closer to $0.90 which makes it an at market deal including the value of the warrant.
You have to admit you made an absolute statement which has been proven wrong multiple times.
You cant back out that easily- of course there is optionality in the warrants- with these less so because they are struck so high- black scholes them if you want-
You made an absolute statement that stock is never sold at a premium in a financing/PIPE/etc.- you never said adjusted for the embedded option of a warrant attached.
How did that happen? Dew said that never happens even after we provided examples. I will have to call Rich Gormley (Investment Banking head of PIPES/Registered Directs) at Lazard to ask him how that happened given what Dew is saying?
"Thank for clearing up why RPRX is a lot like VRTX. I think I now understand why you and JP get along so well."
---That's about as dumb of a comment as if I were to say, "No wonder you don't like companies with solid data and large market opportunities like RPRX- you only invest in serial diluters like GTCB (anyone hear the whisper "BK") and companies with drugs that dont get approval like MNTA."
Its a good case study on how the market doesnt understand the data or the company or give it appropriate credit. A majority of sell side analysts are negative on VRTX and when they finally figured out its data was better than bocep and the CF drug data is good, the stock ran. Same for RPRX- most analysts are sitting the fence on RPRX b/c they dont understand it (to back this up I cite a conversation with a major fund who used to own the stock and exited), plus the lack of sell-side analyst coverage.
OBviously I wasnt citing the market cap, employee count, etc.
Though I wasnt asked, I'll take a shot.
Baseline women have x amt of bleeding (whereas x is some amount far in excess or normalcy) plus bleeding in and around the usual 5 or so days of a period. After one cycle of drug for 4 months, the women went on holiday period and they got their periods back in 20-30 days and the periods they got back were 28% less than x (or 72% of x)- this is an apples to apples comparison of someone who hadnt seen the drug yet. Obviously the bleeding during the 4 months was far less than both of those #s. I think i read that the number was even less after the second holiday period showing consistent improvement too, not slacking back.
LMAO
From your whiney lips to JPs fingers typing feverishly.
I think VRTX is a good case study for RPRX- 14 to 23 in a couple of weeks and the shorts are still not done covering. plus this is 10-15x market cap so the RPRX move can/will be heftier if/when it happens.
I think SGP deserves a vacation. Vytorin news. Plus my VRTX telapravir is bitchslapping bocep. SGP should be interested if they werent a few weeks ago.
Someone should have told Allen & Caron there was a new competitor/sheriff in town and his firm was Wilford Brimley Communications.
LMAO-
I dont recall if the guy worked for the company and was IR or was one of those IR firms that the company hired- nonetheless he didnt inspire me. He never told me they were going to dilute the crap out of those shareholders either.