Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Mysef
"Looking at estimates in the game, I would think he should have announced something before now."
Hector is not supposed to look at the consensus, but on his guidance. From a visibility viewpoint, he certainly could have done more (at the date of the analyst day FASL was probably sold out for the quarter), but there is an employee-stock-options-exchange under way to be taken into account. If AMD is doing better than consensus, silence is gold under these circumstances - as long as possible. Which could be an explanation for the shift to a later date than usual as well.
K.
sgolds
"(can't remember who fabs for Via offhand)"
http://portfolios.abcnews.go.com/quotes?tid=&tab=news&headline=no&source=reuters&pat...
OT sgolds
"is trying learn"
Definitely not. Follow the thread backwards. I took my time to answer a silly question politely because he is a new poster.
He did not take his time to read the answer. Not the way trying to learn would imply, definitely.
Well, he made it to the list in less than two hours. A record by far; it took weeks for every other one to be ignored.
K.
Thats all...
Sure. Baking chips is like baking cakes. An oven is an oven, flour is flour and sugar is sugar. A fab is a fab, silicon is silicon and copper is copper. Impressive you found all that out in no time. Keeping up this pace you will have what it takes to start your own fabless CPU manufacturing empire well before 2005. Make sure that none of these eggheaded phycicists will ever cross your way and post again for IPO-data.
K.
Tiger64
With all due respect, i posted for you a minute ago AMD has broken ground for an own fab (which will be going online in 2005 as well).
So what exactly could AMD use other semi plants for?
K.
Tiger64 - billion dollar question?
1. There is not much excess capacity out there now. Foundry utilizations rates are at record levels.
2. For AMDs current SoI process, there is no foundry at all with an appropriate toolset to manufacture AMDs products
3. AMD has already broken ground for a new 300mm fab in Dresden to migrate to their next process.
4. Given the challenges on the manufacturing front, a foundry strategy for High-Performance products would be completely nuts.
K.
ps: Please check your pm for the adress to send the billion-dollar-cheque to
Joe
Yeah, exactly. Even if the Core they are using for EE maybe could scale way beyond EE3200, current platforms (limitations to get enough current into it through the pins they have now) dont allow much more.
If Intel is courageous (or desperate) enough to take the risks of electromigration or other effects becoming critical, an option would be to package the 130nm-EE-core for LGA775 and scale it to 4 Mhz already in Q2. (They shipped products specified at the coffins corner of the envelope before, so I would not be surprised to see that.)
But then, I would expect AMD to be able to counter even a 4GHz EE if necessary. So probably any escalation would lead nowhere.
Until...
Large cache 90nm Xeons could probably be the next opportunity to ride an EE-attack to regain the DT-Perfomance Crown. For the next couple of months, it will sit on Hectors head to capitalize on the halo.
K.
joe
I have a high level of conviction that AMD already has couple of packaged and properly marked FX53 (940) ready to send out to reviewers just in case of an EE-surprize. OTOH I have the same high level of conviction Intel is aware of that as well. In essence, i neither see EE 3400 nor FX-53 anytime soon.
K.
joe
would be nice for AMD to have a chip that will beat P4EE 3.4
Show me your EE 3.4 if you want to see my FX53
K.
fnf
was new to me. Reading the other recommendations on your link I cannot say I would agree in all of them, but I would bet the analyst is a gamer-boy:
Predicting 16 cent for AMDs quarter and making a market perform call of it is hard to understand without further explanation, especially next to his nVidia Market Outperform Call @ 41 x FY04 earnings.
K.
paul
Thanks. Irrelevant anyway for any practial purposes. Even if aHT could be positioned against PCI-X, it would be unwise to do so currently. K.
paul
Just curious, wouldn't Hypertransport be the superior solution to PCI-Express? (Theoretically, of course, i am well aware it would be a question of critical mass to make it marketable).
Microsoft extends support for Windows 98, ME
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=13575
Somewhat strange move, on the first glance. After a thought or two, this most probably adresses a huge bunch of 98 and ME corporate (and public household funded) users not willing or at least being reluctant to adopt current MS-Licencing Model.
"Before loosing too many of them to Linux we better continue supporting the old stuff while we can rethink about what to do with them - or with our licencing policy." Is this your message, Mr.Mikerosoft?
K.
sgolds
Ok that is clear. Thanks for your advise.
K.
OT sgolds
Thanks. You already adressed the question properly. I come to this solution:
No link WLAN/LAN
WAP will be sufficient, considering the risk of public hotspots I use as well with the notebook and the risk somebody could steal the notebook.
Would you agree?
BTW, i am using Zonealarm. Would you consider this a contribution to risk-management or rather a Placebo?
K.
OT sgolds
Set up reasonable security on it, unless you are 100% sure that no one will snoop the radio frequency. Defining your security level is the important item that you need to think about, if you have questions I can help with that.
I have a DLlink 624 working now with the book 54Mbit - no security set.
May I come back to your offer now? What would you recommend irt security?
K.
mas
Only snag is AMD are dependant on Bill to pull his finger out and release Win XP64. What are all his army of Indian programmers doing anyway ?
From what I see MS's ressources are not the bottleneck at all, wherever they are.
It is the drivers... I went after that recently when thinking about going for a Win-64 beta (after staying away some 15 years from betas - to give you an idea about my attitude irt AMD64)
Not that I would like it, but i am not holding my breath for a Release-version of WinAMD64 this year from what i see out there currently. And I dont even think of using the beta currently.
I mean it is not like there would be driver issues - they are just absent for 90% (my wag) of hardware out there.
I dont know what MS or AMD could do to force Driver-Releases...
Pay for it? Naah. Blacklist?? Or a Whitelist? Naah, implossible, that would make the situation obvious to everybody.
Suggestions?
K.
petz
Even if the prices just stay FLAT at Jan 1 level, sales will be up immensely.
Depends on the amount of revenues from flash-inventories in Q4.
I see up as well, just not immensely. Anyway, as Q1 production is sold out already, there is excellent visibility for a narrow guidance on it. So we should know soon.
K.
OT I like these mutant alien postings eom
No significant Prescott availability until April/May?
I read "mass transition" for two specific models, iaw crossover of volumes of Northwood 2,6HT and Prescott 2,8 by about eastertime, which is completely consistent with the migration roadmap they showed at their Analyst day.
Looks like Prescott's and Northwood's bins are looking pretty much the same for socket 478.
Not as good as Intel hoped but not as bad as many here expected.
K.
p.s: Sort of implies current waferouts are not well above 2,6 as elmer believes to know as well - unless there are huge inventories, which I dont see from the numbers.
mgl
Now they have.
06:11 AM AMD: Recent Information Suggests Athlon-64 Q4 Shipments Still Struggling
Content is subject to (free) registration, so i dont post it.
K.
petz
Personally, I think AMD is sandbagging big time about the thin and light market.
I dont see AMD holding back anything: They released data yesterday from which everybody can see they have silicon to make a CPU for thin and light possible.
Which they would have done if they had a Tier-one notebook maker asking for it.
They did not, so notebook makers most probably wait for upcoming LV-CPUs to offer a T-L design for the stronger half of the year. Maybe OEMs using these designs will wait a lil bit longer for Windows-64.
Then (and only then) AMD-based Thin and Light offerings will have what it takes to supersede Centrino.
K.
p.s. I am not sure if anybody would follow your proposal and operate a CPU only for lower power-states, let alone AMD releasing a remarked chip for this purpose. Murphy's law, you know..
I'm shocked!
I thought it could make your day )
yb
Yup.
AMD64 = Athlon64 + Athlon64M + Opteron = 6 digit
I do not see less than that.
Sorry i cant follow your thoughts on losing anything.
K.
More importantly they better not have inside info in which case they should not get away with it.
No way of making a case, even he had (which I doubt). He can always say the first number was from his modelling AMDs manufactoring and the second from collected market data.
Blaming AMDs execution for his error during quiet period is nothing the street will beat him for immediately.
His first call though (350,000 Athlon64) was completely off AMDs guidance, saying K8 would not be expected to contribute significantly in 2003 already. Which allows for anything in the single digit percentage, but not for 350K A64.
Smith Barney making comments on AMD.
The analyst says the company had a Q4 Athlon64 shortfall
due to manufacturing problem - expects shipments of 170000 vs their original estimate of 350000.
(aus StreetInsider.com)
via ugan w:o
Cheeky. But well, we are in quite period, so Westmont probably will get away with it.
alan
Volumes sound right. However, Banias accounted for 25% of IA revenues in Q3 already. And that is only half a year after its introduction.
Strongest product in biggest growing sector, flawless execution, big, big Cash-Cow. Nothing short of impressive in my book.
I dont know how Celeron-Baniases will be adopted. Depends on what Intel will be communicating what for and whom for books with it are intended and how (multimilliondollar) load this message will be broadcasted.
Maybe it will be a quite product, otherwise Pentium-M could easily be cannibalized by it.
K.
combjelly
I am not sure what and when will be feasible in the 90nm node.
But I see what is feasible "in a nanosecond" if AMD would choose to offer it: Dual chip module Opterons.
Although I dont expect such an offer in the near future.
It would just be a nice option to consider in case Itanic would surpringly gain some traction.
What I could imagine though is to see DCMs in Red Storm in Summer as a HPC-edition, just for the mindshare it would deliver.
And an appropriate offering for Striders. With a four-digit pricetag.
K.
otmm
maybe this is not the low lying fruit that AMD should be focusing on.
Which low hanging fruits do you figure out AMD could harvest?
K.
otmm
could eliminate the unique selling point of Intels mobile range.
Sure. That is what it takes to do it:
1. A LV-mobile chip (expected to be present in couple of months)
2. An energy-efficient platform and a low-energy grafics solution (could be the upcoming mobile-chipsets with integrated grafics will make that possible, although probably not as good as Intels platform)
3. One first-tier notebook manufacturer who dares to combine that with state-of the art energy-efficient LCD - or even better OLED as soon as it is available.
4. Branding (a pity efficion is not available for it)
5. An 8-digit dollar marketing budget dedicated to it.
Btw, it would be good to utilize a first class designer (Colani or the like) to care about the design of it. From my very own experience with an AMD-64 notebook bought recently... it is a shame...
K.
p.s: Welcome on board
elmer
It's well above 2.6GHz
No doubt about. K.
elmer
Maybe they just don't get any that slow anymore?
Sure. Would be surprized if the bar would not be raised.
Entry level for Performance Segment in Q1 going forward @ 2,8, yes. Prescotts to be released for it. Thats what I was saying.
Where do you see the manufacturing sweetspot for Northwood (clockwise) currently (wafer-outs)?
K.
yb
I wonder what was the reason to release it at all?
Paul explicitely promised Prescott shipment for revenues in Q4.
They have a Q & A on January 14th. World and dog can listen to it.
What would you do?
K.
Pentium 4 SSE3 processor 2.80GHz with 1MB L2 cache, 533MHz QPB, but without the Hyper-Threading technology.
(From http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/cpu/display/20040102093335.html)
Interesting. That would help to keep Prescotts thermals within reasonable envelope.
And it would explain selling Prescotts and Northwoods @ same clockrate for the same price.
K.
p.s: Aha. Shortages of entry level P4-CPUs. Hmm. Well, i think, i mean, you know - theoretically, if Intel would look for an explanation why it will be using Prescott-Dies for this segment as well...
Honi soit qui mal y pense.
probably make an official statement mid-year with product delivery around the end of the year.
Well. If they will be convinced they will have ready what is takes by end of the year, sure.
(I would give it about 80% probability that it will be AMD64.)
Anything else would be suicidal. Although I am sure they would be able to add some whistles and bells to it.
K.
sgolds
Agree. Could well be a deliberate semantic slip as well. If so, we would have to look at previous statements of the last 10 days from the very same viewpoint. Yup. Way more likely than a series of PR-accidents.
Thanks for setting that straight.
K.
Then, understanding it as a carefully prepared statement of a senior PR-professional of an internatinal compay, the wording is intentional as well.
He that hath ears to hear, let him hear. ...
yb
" Intel thinks about a lot of things "
I would consider this as nothing short of a semantic Freudian slip.
In most languages, this term is used to communicate there is a problem.
Actually, "wait for the right time" is not any better at all.
(Vulgo: Just a matter of when, not if.)
I dont think Paul is exactly delighted about his PR-guys these days.
Have a nice weekend
Klaus
elmer
Prescott...shipping for revenue by EOY'03
I sure hope they booked nine-digits-revenues for last years Prescott-shipments.
Otherwise maybe Intel reports disappointing less than 8,7 B.
Usually the street uses the AMD common as the dog to beat badly for a while when it is disappointed about Intc.
K.
sgolds
Who said they didn't start yet? Intel has known about their 90nm P4 problems since early in 2003.
Well. Yes. In this case it could be ready earlier in 2005 if all goes right. That would put Intel a year ahead again of AMDs second generation 90nm product - with something I could imagine to become a strong product. Although I dont expect it to scale as good as K8 down the road, as it is based on a fairly aged architecture at the end.
K.
sgolds
First, if Intel wanted to make a Dothan successor with AMD64 inside, they probably could have it in the market for early to mid 2005.
I dont think that would be competitive long enough. End of 2005 as a dual core model and integrated memory controller would more be what it takes to stay in the game.
It is a bad assumption to think that the reader will automatically fill in the needed development time.
I do. And I might add, development times implied in your posting seem to me definitely on the optimistic side. You know, all these unlimited ressources, sounds great. But looking at IPF, things can take a lot more time than planned.
K.