You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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midtier, I have already emailed Dan K last week and posted his reply. He DID NOT answer the question about the Kosmos drilling contract for the AA or confirm or deny what Jim L. said about the contract. Maybe if you call Dan K yourself, instead of emailing him, you might get better results and more information.
The Kosmos contract issue is VERY vital to knowing when the AA will be in the JDZ and needs to be answered. Hopefully someone here can get accurate information from either Kosmos, Addax or EHRC since right now no one knows for sure what to believe.
However, the iGaming BETONANYTHING gambling site recently posted odd on the over under arrival date for the AA in the JDZ and it was September 15. So you can place your bet now if you have a strong feeling on when the AA will arrive.
Red, I believe what Jim L said was very clear during the conference call. He said that Kosmos HAS the Aban Abraham for 4 drilling slots with an option for 4 more slots. There is no "hedging" around what Jim L said. The only possibility is if Jim L. misspoke, which the more I think about it, the less likely it is. Hopefully, Dan K. will check with Jim L. and get back to me to confirm what Jim L said at the cc was accurate. But the more time that goes by, the more likely it is that what Jim L said was correct since Dan K has not indicated otherwise.
The reason why MOST here are disappointed is that this was (is) another unexpected delay in the timeline for the arrival of the AA in the JDZ. The "estimated" arrival time now has been pushed back from April 2009 to October 2009, about six months later than expected.
However, this has NOT changed the hopes for getting a ROO since the outlook for getting a ROO was very positive during the cc. So there were both pluses and minuses during the cc about getting a drilling rig. Although there are some here who think there will never be a ROO, I have a gut felling there will be a ROO announcement in September. Anyone who is not in the stock at that time will miss a nice share price increase.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to way for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
Maybe Dan K wanted the company to UNDER promise and OVER deliver, knowing even with an African timeline, the rig would be here before 1000 years.
Ps: Sorry about the typo.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to way for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
In the post I am replying to, which I emailed to DAN K, I said:
"My feelings were mixed because when Jim Ledbetter talked about the timeline for the AA whereby Kosmos would have the rig for whatever time it took for them to complete their planned drilling, this amount of time would leave the AA in Kosmos hands far longer then I previously believed. But after reading the board and finding out there may be a "discrepancy" in rig allotment time (6 mos vs. time to drill 4/8 wells) and the BIG discrepancy in how many wells Kosmos is allowed to drill under the contract (4 or 8). Although 8 wells appear not to be true since 4 wells could be completed in 6 months, while 8 wells require much more time (one year). Hopefully, Ledbetter misspoke off the top of his head and hopefully Dan Kenney will correct this misunderstanding very soon."
When Dan K replied, he indicated the AA would be in the JDZ 2H 3009, which would indicate what Jim L. said was accurate about the 4 + 4 wells to be drilled by Kosmos. The more I think about it, the more I realize that there is no way Jim L. misspoke about this arrangement. Jim L. spoke with confidence and authority in everything he said. Jim L. is on top of this AA subject and it would be very unlikely he erred in what he said about the KOsmos contract for the AA. So the bottom line it the AA is in Kosmos' hands for 8 wells (if they so desire) which will take at least ONE YEAR from the time the AA gets to the JDZ. I would guess the AA will arrive about the beginning of October 2008, so the AA should be in the JDZ about October 2009. And there is nothing that we can do about that.
The $64,000 question is: Will there be a Rig of Oportunity or do we have to way for the AA begin drilling On Oct 1, 2009?
I too am upset that the AA arrival in the JDZ has been pushed back, but I am still not sure how long. What is your 16-18 month estimate based on? I have asked a general question to the resident "oil" experts on IHUB about how long it takes to drill a well, but no one so far has answered. It appears you are using about 60-65 days to drill a well. Is that about normal?
Art, I totally agree about the PATIENCE. I wish we all could get into a one year time capsule and when we come out there would be drilling in the JDZ (number of RIGs unknown at this time). That would be FORCED patience, but would do the trick. Troy needs to step away from IHUB for several days/weeks and get his meandering mind off ERHC. But like all soap operas (including AS THE DRILL BIT TURNS), the addiction forces all of us to tune in every day. Troy send your computer to the shop for a tune-up, they usually keep it for several days.
The $64,000 question is: Will drilling begin On April 22, 2009?
Troy, I am trying to understand the last part of your post. Are you leaving as Moderator (again)? Are you leaving IHUB entirely? Are you leaving the your shares and selling over the next few days/weeks? (I know with a large holding and the recent light volume, you can not possibly sell all at once)
The only thing I would recommend is to wait for price jump when the ROO is announced in September or soon thereafter. You indicated your gut felt like there WILL be a ROO soon. So why not wait for the announcement to sell?
I too am down on ERHC's management and have always hoped that when 3 new members of the BOD were added, this would signal a change away from the Nigerian connection (control). However, the promise of adding new BOD members remains unfulfilled like the many other promises you speak of. Remember the speed things get done in Africa is sometimes more than a fortnight. However, all of these promises by the current management DO NOT MATTER except for one thing, the ROO.
Just think how things will change around here after the announcement. I bet the share price will reach a dollar mighty fast and there will no longer be droopy faces and pissed off shareholders. Remember what I have always said, PATIENCE, PATIENCE, PATIENCE. I know I am much older than you and if I can continue to be patient, so can you. Best of luck in whatever decision you make.
Concering the late filing, Oh no, MR. BILL, does this mean ERHE will not be ERHE like Oily indicated? Does this mean we will get a new symbol, ERHE"E" Ee gads! On no, Mr. Bill, not the dreaded E.
The $64,000 question is: Will drilling begin On April 22, 2009?
Dane, Dan K comments about the 2H 2009 referred to the AA only and not about the ROO. My question to Dan was about when the AA would arrive since Ledbetter discussed Kosmos' contract. Nobody can predict when a ROO will happen, not even the Great Carsony.
Troy, I agree with your gut, as my gut feels the same way about a ROO. The positive "aura" when the ROO was being discussed at the cc left me with a good "feeling" that created my believe that the ROO is just around the corner as well. If I was a betting man, I would bet the ROO is announced in September (around the 19th), but I can not find anywhere (like an online gambling site) to place this kind of wager.
The $64,000 question is: Will drilling begin On April 22, 2009?
Walldog, we still need a clarification from Ledbetter because he specifically stated Kosmos' contract is based on 4 firm drilling slots with further 4 optional drilling slot. Ledbetter indicated the contract is not a timeline contract it is a drilling slot contract. Hopefully Ledbetter misunderstood the 4 + 4 and this is only a TOTAL of 4 drilling slots, not 4 + 4. But Ledbetter comments were very detailed about the Kosmos contract and he sounded very knowledgeable about them. Again, we can only hope for the best and that Dan K clarifies the issue after he contacts Jim about the actual number of drilling slots and drilling slot options Kosmos has.
I would also hope some of the oil experts here would give their opinion on how long it takes to drill a well. If it only takes 3-4 weeks per slot, then it is possible to drill 8 wells in 6 months. If it take 6-8 weeks per slot, then Kosmos will have the AA for almost about one year.
The $64,000 question is: Will drilling begin On April 22, 2009?
And Dan the man answers very promptly (9:30 am EST next morning). Thanks Dan. (see post I am replying to for email)
Thanks for your note. I am out of the office in meetings today and may not have an opportunity to touch base with Mr. Ledbetter regarding your question, but I wanted to respond. Officially, we can only repeat what the operators of our Blocks disclose, which is that if everything goes as planned, our technical partners will take possession of the Aban Abraham sometime in the second half of 2009. As far as I can tell, that does not differ from what Mr. Ledbetter described yesterday. We aren’t going to be an appropriate source of information about contracts that are in place between two OTHER companies. We’ll instead stick with the guidance provided by the operators and look forward to the second half of 2009.
As always, thank you for your continued interest in ERHC Energy.
Sincerely,
Dan Keeney, APR
DPK Public Relations
214-432-7556 (DFW Area)
832-467-2904 (Houston)
After listening to the cc, I left with mixed feelings. I was 'VERY' impressed with the upbeat nature of the responses by ERHC's management to the questions. ERHC's management sure believe in the company and exude confidence in believing things will get done. I hope they know more than they are disclosing, ESPECIALLY about the ROO. I was very happy to here about the AA being on sea trials and likely to leave the shipyard late Aug/early Sept. That is only two weeks after the Aug 15 date I had hoped for.
My feelings were mixed because when Jim Ledbetter talked about the timeline for the AA whereby Kosmos would have the rig for whatever time it took for them to complete their planned drilling, this amount of time would leave the AA in Kosmos hands far longer then I previously believed. But after reading the board and finding out there may be a "discrepancy" in rig allotment time (6 mos vs. time to drill 4/8 wells) and the BIG discrepancy in how many wells Kosmos is allowed to drill under the contract (4 or 8). Although 8 wells appear not to be true since 4 wells could be completed in 6 months, while 8 wells require much more time (one year). Hopefully, Ledbetter misspoke off the top of his head and hopefully Dan Kenney will correct this misunderstanding very soon.
So, I will go to sleep tonight resting easy as I count rigs like people count sleep. I believe the AA will be released by Kosmos after 6 possibly 8 months and not the more than a year 8 rigs would require that has been mentioned here. I am also in the camp that a ROO will be coming soon. A certain confidence was conveyed at the cc about this issue has me believing the ROO is just a matter of time. If this was a dead issue, like some here believe, why would there be so much discussion about it during not only ERHC cc, but also at the recent ADDAX cc.
Good night all and dream about those rigs.
Ps: I emailed this post to ERHC/Kenney
The $64,000 question is: Will drilling begin On April 22, 2009?
Although, Kramer believes in diversification of your portfolio, I believe if you have a good reason for being in the same "field" (like oil field, pun), why not invest in several companies in that field. Makes perfect sense to me.
No other drillers.
I got into RIG because of the world wide deep water rigging situation I learned about from investing in a small bulletin board oil company (symbol EHRE). ERNE is partnered with ADDAX, SINOPEC and ANADARKO in the JDZ, an oil exploration field in the Gulf of Guinea (West Africa near Nigeria). ERHE's partners (the operators for the Block) have not been able to obtain a drilling rigs they need for the exploration so many delays have been encountered. Realizing the law of supply and demand, I felt RIG would be a good investment until there in a better balance in the world wide rig supply. No new rigs built for 7 years has kept the supply down and lease costs increasing.
The eve of the ERHC conference call and very little chat about it. No list of questions that have been lingering in your mind. No hype on possible company statements about whatever (subsidiary? investigations? upcoming conferences? who will be occupying all that office space? hiring a CFO? Madigan's new law firm? confirm rig news reported this weekend? info on Blocks 5/6?). Anybody have any questions?
Eastunder, thanx for the RIG link to IV, I will use it.
Is there a message board where RIG is discussed more frequently?
The article states:
"Addax leading the field in JDZ
ADDAX Petroleum's share of reserves in four blocks in the Gulf of Guinea's Joint Development Zone (JDZ) could amount to over 0.7bn barrels, the company says. That suggests the total potential for the areas, based on Addax's percentages of the blocks' equity, could amount to almost 3bn barrels."
Isn't this 3bn barrel estimate kind of a disappointment since it is down from the previous estimates of 14bn barrels for the JDZ. Or does the 14bn barrel estimate include ALL the blocks (1 thru 9?) and this estimate only covers blocks 1-4?
In any case using the 0.7bn barrels for Addax's share shouldn't it be possible to extract ERHC's share? Maybe a little bit less, but certainly over 2bn barrels!
Were they "flaring" oil or just walking?
The AA can no longer sing How dry I am.
I will buy Oily the balls, although he probably has balls by the way he continually keeps posting.
Only one deep water drill ship built since 2001, no wonder there is the current shortage.
Anyone going to listen in on the ADDAX cc tomorrow. If so, please post any news if possible. I will try to listen in if I can and my schedule allows.
BobWill, that worm (Sen Reid) is actually putting some pressure on the DOJ because of a letter I wrote to him about the injustice going on to EHRC by the DOJ. Most Senators would have just shined a letter like mine on, but Reid actually said he would look into the matter, then after the second letter to him, he forwarded to the letters to the DOJ for them to reply to. It's now about a month and still no answer from the DOJ, but I certainly have an "in" when I write to the DOJ asking why the DOJ has not responded to the Senator's request. Why do you think the DOJ has not responded to the Senator's request? Could heads be rolling around the DOJ trying to figure out what to do? What is taking so long to answer my letter? What could be the problem? Maybe the DOJ has been caught with pants down!
I recall a poster saying that when they get a letter from a Senator they give it "top priority". Don't remember who said that but maybe they can contribute here.
The $64,000 question is: Will drilling begin On April 22, 2009 (when I'm 64). The other question is: Will you still need me? Will you still feed? When I'm 64!
The post I am replying to is my post from this morning, where I discussed writing to the DOJ and asked, "Unless, of course, other posters here convince me my thinking is all wrong and have good arguments why the DOJ should not be written to."
All of the negative responses to writing the DOJ contained not one reason to not write the DOJ that I had not already considered and evaluated. I was hoping these nay sayers would give some reason for their beliefs except for the fact it is better to leave the matter on the back burner, but never saying why. Do you guys disagree with my arguments? If so why?
I will wait for a reply from Condor's email to the DOJ but I anticipate a form letter type reply that says nothing.
Strass, Let's see what Addax has to say tomorrow in their 11am EST cc. Hopefully someone will ask about the ROO in the GOG.
Bobwill, please explain your post. I do not understand the poisonous toad reference. Are you saying I should not tell the DOJ that I received a letter from Sen Reid, who in turn forwarded the letter I sent to him to the DOJ, for the DOJ to answer (which the DOJ has not yet answered)?
Do you not like Sen Reid? He not my favorite guy either, but he is my Senator and IS or HAS tried to be helpful in this matter.
Troy, I too have mixed feeling about whether to let sleeping dogs lie, or to try and right the injustice that is presenting going on. I look at the DOJ investigation this way at present, since the company has told there is no activity going on and it appears to be on the DOJ's back burner. One must ask why this is? Here are three possibilities:
1. Is it because after all the gov't's investigating they came up with nothing and do not know where to go from here?
This is the most likely scenario, and putting pressure on the DOJ from higher up would likely cause the DOJ to officially end the investigation. Best scenario for the shareholders.
2. Is it because because more important things came up and the gov't put it on the back burner only to look into it in the future?
This is a possibility, and putting pressure on the DOJ from higher up would likely cause the DOJ to bring the matter to the forefront and bring formal against ERHC if the gov't found any wrongdoing by ERHC. Although this would be bad for the shareholders of ERHC, it is a very BIG IF that the DOJ found any wrongdoing (especially because of the SOL situation).
3. Is it because of the difficulty in getting evidence from foreign government officials who will not cooperate with the US/DOJ because they to do not any thing to happen that may slow down the progress in getting the oil out of the ground? Because of this the DOJ is stymied in the investigation and refused to accept letting ERHC get off Scott free and is going to keep the investigation open as long as they can just to punish ERHC.
This is also a possibility and if true, any pressure of the DOJ from higher up may cause the DOJ to realize it is time to quit dicking with EHRC and formally end the investigation.
So, looking at all three of my scenarios, there is a good possibility of getting the investigation officially ended and only an unlikely possibility that waking the sleeping dog would create a downside. So, I conclude that it is best to write to the DOJ and to find out what they are doing about this investigation. I will prepare a letter this week when I have more time and post it here. Unless, of course, other posters here convince me my thinking is all wrong and have good arguments why the DOJ should not be written to.
Art, I put the info in "google" search, and I got to the right place. Thanks for the help.
Contact Us (DOJ)
BY MAIL:
Correspondence to the Department, including the Attorney General, may be sent to:
U.S. Department of Justice
950 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20530-0001
BY E-MAIL:
E-mails to the Department of Justice, including the Attorney General, may be sent to AskDOJ@usdoj.gov.
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Condor
AskDOJ@usdoj.gov
does not work
Windows can not find, check spelling
is the error message I get
Condor, I really appreciate your effort to get info from the DOJ. I too would like to write them a letter, as I have a lot more ammo to get action from them (an email from Sen Reid asking the DOJ to respond to a letter I sent the Senator). However, I do not know where to send the letter. Could you please let me know who you addressed the letter to? You can email me at rcparker99@aol.com.
DeGen
Ps: I suggest you use spellcheck in your future correspondence.
Troy, there will be a "pay" back for you. When you come to Vegas, you get the free room and food (and drinks) from your benefactor. However, you realize the Vegas party is when the shareprice hits $5. Hopefully, I will still be alive then.
Condor,
You ask:
what was sealed?,
NO ONE KNOWS, IT IS SEALED SO THE CONTENTS ARE UNKNOWN
why was it sealed?,
NO ONE KNOWS (ONLY THE GOV'T AND THEY ARE NOT TALKING)
how do we know that it remains sealed?
IF UNSEALED, ERHC WOULD LIKELY ISSUE PR.
,and if so why does it remain to be sealed?..
NO ONE KNOWS, BUT TROY'S SPECULATION ABOUT FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS/OFFICIALS BEING MENTIONED MAKES SENSE.
If it actually remains sealed,might that hinder the investigation and forward movement of that investigation?
THE LONGER IS STAYS SEALS, THE MORE UNLIKELY IT WILL NEVER BE UNSEALED AND THE INVESTIGATION DROPPED
That doesn't ,ake any sense to me.
WHEN DOES WHATEVER THE GOVERNMENT DOES EVER MAKE SENSE!
... and to quote Mick, "You can't always get what you want... but if you try sometimes, you just might find ... you get what you need."
Condor, Although I can not say for sure, one BIG difference in those other companies receiving a closure letter and our case may be the "sealed" affidavit. No one knows what is contained inside that document, so it is very difficult for EHRC to act accordingly. The first question is, when or if will the affidavit EVER be unsealed or the contents revealed. The next question is, why after over two years since the affidavit hasn't been unsealed? Any purpose of it being sealed (mostly surprise, so the company does not have a chance to hide something) has long since passed.
I still think the gov't is dicking with ERHC and has no reason to continue leaving the affidavit sealed or the case open. The only think we as shareholders can do is to try to apply some political pressure on the DOJ by writing our representatives and plead our case to them. Have you written your Senator or Representative yet?
Exceo, hate to see you give up on this gem. But one thing has me puzzled, you say you are selling 20,000 shares. Could that possibly your entire position or are you planning to slowly unload some shares each day over a period of time. $7400 bucks can not possible be a meaningful amount of money for an EX CEO.
In any event, I wish you well and will miss your contributions here. The sale will probably be the best thing for your marriage as well. I know I have to explain this investment to often to the wife, especially as the shareprice falls as it has been doing for tooooooo long.
... and to quote Mick, "You can't always get what you want... but if you try sometimes, you just might find ... you get what you need."
Troy, I have never suggested you have your head in the sand concerning the gov't investigations. I have always been on the side (along with you) that the gov't has NOTHING on ERHC. However, I have in the past indicated it would be prudent for EHRC to "settle" with the gov't by paying a $5 mil fine (bribe) just to get them off ERHC's back and put the issue behind EHRC. Admit no guilt but but the money. IMO, the best way to resolve the matter.
However, now that enough time has past, I would not offer the gov't a dime. The SOL has eliminated any possible bribery crimes now so the investigations are no longer a concern.
As far as you head in the sand, I may have said that concerning the "acquisitions" or the new exchange listing. Those possibilities remain remote in my mind and anyone looking forward to them happening in the next year do have their head in the sand or are real dreamers.
Condor, I read through some of your old posts and will say again we think / are very alike. Unless however, your past views of the investigations /SOL remain the same. I no longer worry at all about the investigations as IMO there is little if any chance of the gov't doing anything. Any questionable actions ERHC may have done are now safely past the SOL. Do you still have concerns about the investigations? If so, please explain why. Anyone that has called you a basher for your view points in the past is way off base. Your past fears about delays have been spot on and those fears were in the minds of many here (especially Strass). I do not follow the rah rah sis boom ba cheer leading that sometimes goes on here and take the conservative approach as you do. ERHC has to continue to prove themselves with actually accomplishing what they say they will do. Promises such as the acquisition and the exchange listing are right now JUST promises. I continue to say I have to see it to believe it. Both of these items appear to be pie in the sky promises in my mind. I remember a movie, where the sports star kept telling his agent (Tom Cruise), SHOW ME THE MONEY. I think that is the case here, as promises don't mean much to me.
... and to quote Mick, "You can't always get what you want... but if you try sometimes, you just might find ... you get what you need."
Condor, sounds like we have a lot in common, real estate, landlord, money, ERHC shares, etc. But I would like to know your OPINION on when do you think the drilling will begin. My best "guess" is April 22, 2009 when I am 64.
DeGen
Ps: I was going to ask you if you gamble, but if you own that many shares of ERHC, I already know the answer.
Not even a billion barrels in Agbami and we expect 14 billion in the JDZ? Just doesn't sound right. ERHC needs to "update" that prediction with new seismic data.