metoo - As someone once said, "It ain't over until its over."

No matter who wins it should be a great game.

Sounds like you drank the fifth to me.....

Still trying are you? I would have thought you could find it on your own.... but since you can't -

http://cn.finance.yahoo.com/

FrankNG - It would be interesting to know which of the RB bashers you are but I guess I will never know. I have watched you dance the fine line in your posts here in which you do your best to bash without arousing tin or ez into removing your posts. The last few today though certainly exhibit your true purpose and indicate that you probably will not be with us much longer.... so I just wanted to take the opportunity to say goodbye.

It does raise questions why HRCT among all those stocks attracts so much attention. Several of our bashers spend hours every day on a particular stock which is trading under a dime and so little attention is paid to the many others. It must be because this is such a "fun stock to own" and they just can't stand it - lol. One might be a little curious as to what they gain from this frenzied activity.

Interesting. There are 20 boards with more than 100,000 posts out of the hundreds listed. econnect is the leader with over 600,000 posts. I didn't look to see if like HRCT, many of the posts were bashers specials (The same post entered hundereds of times) Not sure if the total number of posts means anything.... quantity does not mean quality.

OT: Minddoc - DIAMONDBACKS 9, YANKEES 5! Check your PM for address to send the hat to. Kim had no problem closing this one out. Good game. The way things are going you should get a chance to get even in October.

OT: It will take 250 shares of HRCT to buy the hat - lol.

OT: You're on. Neither team has their best stuff on the mound and you guys have all the steroid boys in the batting lineup but I might as well back our boys - I wouldn't want to be fair weather fan.

OT: Minddoc - You can start your vacation in an hour - game starts at 1pm eastern. D-Backs will win today - lol.

OT: Minddoc - We have not been having as much fun in NY as we had in Boston. I will have to be content in knowing that the D-Backs know how to whip Yankee butt when it comes to the series that counts. But I will give the Yankees their due.... they outplayed and outpitched us the last two days.

Except that you don't really have a 50/50 chance because of the "0" and "00"

I hadn't bothered because it was just message board hooey. HRCT management wouldn't consider it for a number of reasons and as was pointed out, nothing will happen without Phan's consent as long as those preferred shares remain in his control. Also, there are a number of large shareholders that would resist any type of MBO.

It's a silly idea that wouldn't work. And you are right.... if such a thing were to be seriously entertained, the lawyers would be coming out of the woodwork.

Not related to HRCT but interesting in that nothing is more an example of private capitalism than employers obtaining reinsurance to spread risk and protect themselves and their employees.

Employers Re Applies for Full Operating License from Chinese

Regulators

Employers Reinsurance Corporation (ERC) today formally applied for a full property and casualty insurance operating license from the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC).

I can't help you with whether or not it is a good time to buy but there is certainly a better basis available than Floyd's Chicken Little routine. Possino is long gone from any relationship with HRCT. Watch the financials as a better indicator.

It is just Floyd with another of his many aliases. Fortunately the information in that post (which he has posted on RB many times) isn't true as it relates to HRCT. Floyd is in to conspiracy theories. If you had owned HRCT as long as you say, then why don't you know about this?

They could easily drop into single digits until HRCT files a 10Q showing an increase in revenues and approching positive earnings. If you wish to hold I would guess that you can expect to wait through at least 2 more 10Qs.

Mr. Eglindy aka Anthony@Pacific aka Auric_Goldfinger posted on the RB HRCT board a couple of times a while back. He is best known over on Silicon Investor where Floyd likes to hang out with his "short" buddies. Too bad the unnamed defendants turned out not to include Floyd.

They would like to have it at the Las Vegas Country Club again but indoors this time - it was a little warm outside.

Our old friend Anthony@Pacific was in the news today.

By MICHAEL RAPOPORT and CAROL S. REMOND
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK -- Anthony Elgindy, the controversial short-seller and Internet stock commentator, was arrested on charges of manipulating stocks by using secret government information fed to him by collaborators within the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Mr. Elgindy, who lives in the San Diego area, was arrested at his business on Tuesday, Jan Caldwell, a spokeswoman for the San Diego field office of the FBI, said Wednesday.

Mr. Elgindy was indicted by a federal grand jury in Brooklyn, N.Y., on charges of racketeering, insider trading, market manipulation, extortion conspiracy and obstruction of justice. Four other people, including a current FBI agent and a former agent, also were indicted.

The indictment alleges that Mr. Elgindy, through his FBI contacts, obtained confidential information from FBI databases about criminal history and investigations relating to companies that he was shorting or thinking of shorting. A short-seller sells borrowed shares and profits when a stock declines, so exclusive access to negative information about a company would be valuable to a short.

He then used the secret information to decide how to invest, prosecutors say, and distributed it to other short-sellers to encourage them to short the stock also. Paid subscribers to Mr. Elgindy's e-mail newsletter and investment Web site received the information also, prosecutors said.

In addition, according to the indictment, Mr. Elgindy extorted free or cheap shares of stock from the insiders of companies he had targeted in exchange for his agreement to stop shorting the companies and stop spreading negative information about them.

Mr. Elgindy was even able to spy on the government's grand jury investigation of him through his FBI contacts, prosecutors allege. One of the FBI agents indicted along with Mr. Elgindy gleaned information about the probe from an FBI database and told Mr. Elgindy of the direction of the investigation and that he was a target, according to the indictment.

A woman at Mr. Elgindy's home hung up the phone on a reporter who called seeking comment. Mr. Elgindy's attorney couldn't immediately be reached.

Write to Michael Rapoport at michael.rapoport@dowjones.com and Carol Remond at carol.remond@dowjones.com

Updated May 22, 2002 1:25 p.m. EDT

It wlll be the middle of July. Somewhere around the 15th.

S&P gets tough -- and Buffett bets on a fall

Even as a mini-rally percolates, the bastions of bullishness are recognizing reality, one sharpening its standards and the other placing bearish bets.
By Bill Fleckenstein

Pumping earnings with artificial byproducts isn't getting any easier for Corporate America today, as even the foot-draggers at Standard & Poor’s last week announced strict new guidelines for calculating profits. Share prices will go south when investors realize they've been paying even more for less.

In recognition of that eventual trajectory, the dean of all investors, Warren Buffett, has bought derivatives to bet against the S&P 500 ($INX).

See... there is a silver lining to every cloud - lol.

HBlodgett - If it has worked successfully for you then I congratulate you. Any method that is successful over time has some merit.

Since I have been in HRCT since March 1999, I will note that there wasn't much to analyze at that time. I bought in for other reasons for which I still hold it but they have nothing to do with investing for profit but of course that would be nice.

As you point out I am actually a conservative investor who looks at a portfolio as a lifetime project. My goal is just to keep my average above a 15% annualized gain over my lifetime. I have been lucky due to a couple of early investments that have carried me past that goal over the past 28 years.

I'm sure you will agree that your method is only for those with a high risk tolerance who can spend a lot of time watching their "basket," not the average investor.

HBlodgett – If you have been investing in microcaps for 7 years I am sure that you would agree that the period, 1997 – 2000, was not typical of normal performance for these stocks. The mo-mo period produced unusual activity in them that is no longer common.

While I agree that a microcap doesn’t have to have 100% or 1000% growth to achieve 100% or 1000% price growth, it does hinge on standard pump and dump procedures (or irrational exuberance to borrow a phrase) to do so. It isn’t a matter of sustaining that type of move because I have never seen a stock sustain that type of price spike without a concurrent equal increase in revenues and earnings. The difference between these and successful long term stocks is that they don’t hold the price gains. The result is that they are only useful to swing traders who are willing to watch them constantly on a daily basis and be prepared to sell if and when the spike occurs. This is speculating as opposed to investing.

I can’t agree that a person doing what you describe with microcaps is investing. The time element isn’t the controlling factor but it is indicative. Gambling, or speculating if you prefer, is exactly what you are doing. There is no analysis involved since there is most often nothing or little to evaluate. You are depending on momentum resulting from some event that has little to do with the true value of the company to cause a price spike that is out of proportion to a rational valuation.

Investing on the other hand is based on an evaluation of the company and the premise that the company will sustain its price growth by increasing revenues and earnings. Cash dividends are also often a factor. Capital preservation is also a goal of investing. While the market has ups and downs over short periods, a long term investor putting money in good companies expects with reasonable confidence that the stock in a company will be worth more as the years go by. This is not always the case but with some degree of diligence he can keep himself protected from large losses without having to devote a large amount of time watching his stocks on a daily basis.

I do know a couple of successful day traders but they spend 10 hours a day, every day working at investing as a job. This isn’t really investing since it isn’t a matter of letting their money work for them. Instead, it is a job or small business if you wish, and they are being compensated for their time. Most investors have other jobs and interests and are not willing to devote that type of time, nor should they. BTW, neither of them would touch an OTC stock with a ten foot pole.

While re-balancing or “asset allocation” is widely practiced, it is most often promoted by those who benefit financially from “churning” portfolios. There is a difference between “re-balancing” to fit some formula and selling a stock for valid reasons. Overvaluation of a stock whose price has grown faster than is justified by revenue and earnings growth is a valid reason to sell and invest the money elsewhere.

I don’t think it is callous to suggest that everyone should take the time to learn to invest wisely. It is one of the most important things in every person’s life and should be treated accordingly. Diverting one’s attention by dabbling in microcaps for short term gains is more likely to result in short term losses for most people.

The final benchmark in your quest to purchase suitable long-term stock is value. While you should aim to own a portfolio of well-run growth stocks, you have to be able to recognize when a stock is selling for a bargain price, and when it's selling at a premium. Simply finding high quality, growing companies isn't enough to make a successful investment. You also have to know when it's the right time to buy a particular stock. Buying a stock when it is undervalued will enhance your possible total return. Knowing the potential upside of your investment, as well as the potential downside, is key to making sure you have a good shot at your target rate of return.

Unfortunately, stocks don't come with manufacturer's suggested retail prices, so you'll have to figure out for yourself when a stock is selling at a reasonable price, and when it's too expensive.

Growth is the first benchmark to look for as you go through the process of selecting a stock to buy. If the company you're researching doesn't have a solid history of earnings growth, consider it a candidate for speculation, not investment. A company may increase its sales year after year, but unless it also consistently demonstrates its ability to convert those revenues into earnings (or profits), you can't be sure the company will ever figure out how to make a buck.

Once you've identified that a company is growing at a reasonable rate and should continue to do so in the foreseeable future, you'll want to make sure it is built upon a stable foundation of quality. Besides being able to grow its sales, the company has to be able to generate sufficient profits from those sales, and in addition, provide a sufficient return for its investors. Well-run companies that consistently achieve these two goals will outperform their peers.

When you hold a good stock for 28 years you are almost guaranteed that you will have GAINS. The question is how much? If you had held HD you would have a capital gains problem. (That is the kind of problem we all hope to have.)

These types of companies are hard to spot in their infancy and most investors that ride them usually find them somewhere around the mid point. They still make good returns though.

We are entertaining ourselves by saying "what if" but that isn't the real world in most cases. It is no different than the bashers saying you lost 99% because HRCT dropped from $10.50 to the present level. Since it was only at $10.50 for a day very few people bought at that level and many sold well above present levels for a profit. Some bought back in lower and some, like myself, have held but we didn't buy in at $10.50 so we haven't lost 99%. It is different for each person.

As for the write off of losses - life ain't fair. The government will always shaft you given the opportunity.

moody - Just for fun I did the research to see what kind of return you would get if you bought 100 shares of HD at the IPO. I couldn't find the IPO price but it was probably somewhere around $20 which would mean a $2000 investment.

HD has split 13 times, most of which were 3 for 2 splits. If you had held your 100 shares until today you would have 33,929 shares worth $1,631,645.61 dividends not included. $1,000 invested then would be worth about $816,000 today.

If you had sold it you would have spent it on wine, women and song and would be broke today but you would have some great memories.

moody - I agree that the discipline is difficult to master. In my case the WMT I bought just sat there because there was no internet and no impulse to do much of anything with it. I didn't even really look at it for the first 7 or 8 years except to check the stock price in the paper occasionally. I didn't realize it had split and the price looked like it hadn't done much. After a while I didn't want to share part of it with the government even though it was a long term capital gain. So I still have it. I don't trade much because I have never found anyone who could time the market reliably. And, of course, it has always done well so why trade it for something that might bomb? It is overweighted in my portfolio so I keep an eye on things but to sell would mean an immediate loss of 20% (capital gains tax) so anything new I invest in would have to make up that 20% just to get me back to even. I keep hoping they will do away with capital gains tax - lol.

Well.... each to his own style of investing. But... The percentage of microcaps that have the kind of growth you are talking about are almost nonexistant. Also it requires a "bubble" market like 1997 - 1999 and those only happen every once in a blue moon. You would probably have better luck finding good companies with a $500 million to $1 billion market cap and betting on them. They are also easier to spot and fewer of them will crash the other direction. MSFT actually did the big return in the 14 years between 1986 and 2000. CSCO did it in 10 years. WMT took longer but made a bigger gain.

As for your second paragraph, you also have more shots at getting it wrong and with microcaps you probably will. Investing is a lifetime enterprise. Gambling is a short term game. Smaller companies are easier to understand? HRCT makes GE look easy to understand - lol.

As for the last.... why would anyone turn their portfolio over to a professional money manager? He is most likely to be the one that benefits from that strategy. Financial advisors can be useful and their knowledge valuable, but you should maintain control of the final decisions. The theory of selling winners just to "rebalance" and holding losers is a sure path to poverty. If some people lack the discipline to hold a winner for 20 years then they deserve what they get.

The failure to act less like an investor and more like a gambler has been exacerbated by the internet. It was much easier when we just got quarterly statements. Investing in equities is an effort that is made with a minimum 10 year time horizon. If you don't have that long, you should be in Pit's bonds or money market funds.

Has it only been 4 years? It seems like 20 - lol.

andi - See if you can get the date of the remarks that were quoted. When MSFT went public in 1982 it was already a very successful company with substantial revenues and earnings thanks to the contract with IBM.

They are always easier to spot in hindsight - lol. MSFT wasn't the best investment for the 10 year period 1990 - 2000. CSCO holds that distinction.

100 shares of WMT bought in 1974 would be 51,200 shares today worth approx. $3 million not including dividends.

Even at age 55 you are probably looking at 20 or more years of investing.

I don't recognize the quote or know what it is reference to.

20 years is a very short time for investments. Even if you diddle around until you are 40 before starting to invest you are probably looking at a 35 year or so investment horizon. If you get started at 20 when you should you are looking at 55 or so years.

$10,000 invested at MSFT's IPO would be worth a little over $4 million today.

Share progression and ROI. --- If you had bought 100 shares of MSFT at its IPO in March 1982 for $2,100 you would now own 14,400 shares worth $806,832 not including dividends.

March 1982 - 100 shares
21 SEP 1987 - 200 shares
16 APR 1990 - 400 shares
27 JUN 1991 - 600 shares
15 JUN 1992 - 900 shares
23 MAY 1994 - 1800 shares
09 DEC 1996 - 3600 shares
23 FEB 1998 - 7200 shares
29 MAR 1999 - 14,400 shares

andi - I think you may have been led astray by a writer who did not know what he was talking about. MSFT was started in 1975 by Bill Gates and Paul Allen. By 1978 they had annual revenues exceeding $1 million. MSFT did not go public until March 1982 at an IPO price of $21 a share. Because it was not a public company until then there would have been no analyst evaluations prior to that time and it already had revenue of many millions annually when it went public. While their first operating system was for the Altair 8800, they had developed MS-DOS for IBM in 1981 which was before the company went public. They weren't working in a garage at that time.