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The Yankees are gone..... Final score 9 to 5. The Diamondbacks are hanging on by their fingernails - 2 to 0 in the 2nd inning.
The game is getting interesting.... Anaheim is still leading 9 to 3 but the Yankees have the bases loaded in the 7th,
Anaheim is whupping the Yankees 6 to 2 in the 5th. It may be a sad day in NYC tomorrow.
I am watching the Twins game.... It is now 11 to 2 in the 7th. Oakland is not happy.
Just finished watching the Yankees game. It would appear that the Yankees and the Diamondbacks are now in the same boat, or should I say dinghy. Backs against the wall and all that....
The crowd is going wild in Minnesota. Game tied in the 6th. Great game no matter who wins.
It is just because all the fat lady singers live in NYC.
OT: Just thought you all would like to know that George W. Bush just called me to urge me to use my mail in ballot and vote Republican. I tried to ask him what he intended to do about the economy but he just rattled on and didn't answer my questions. You would have thought it was a recorded message - lol.
I wouldn't get too carried away quite yet. The fat lady hasn't sung and the Yankees have a long history of dashing hopes.... But that said, I like underdogs so I will keep rooting for the Twins even though the odds aren't with them.
Don't be too hard on minddoc - New Yorkers think that the United States ends about 20 miles West of the city limits.
LOL - When you are 2 games down in a five-game series, "Lucky" is the proper term when your main offensive guys are on the disabled list.
Anything can happen but if I was putting money down one way or the other I would have to go with Oakland. But since I have no particular side I will be happy to root for the Twins.
Unfortunately the D-Backs are just worried about the next game in St. Louis. If they get lucky and make it as far as the World Series then the Yankees will have something to worry about.... if they get past Oakland.
OT: Rockwell Collins/China Eastern -2:To Service Entertainment Equip 30 Sep 2002, 12:04pm ET
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa -(Dow Jones)- Rockwell Collins Corp. (COL) and China Eastern Airlines Corp. (CEA) agreed to form a joint venture that will provide repair and maintenance services for commercial air transport avionics and in- flight entertainment equipment throughout China.
In a press release Monday, Rockwell said the venture, Collins Aviation Maintenance Services Shanghai Ltd., will service equipment made by the company and other original equipment manufacturers.
On Sept. 24, Rockwell agreed to install its programmable audio and video entertainment System on 20 Airbus (F.ABI) A320 aircraft for China Eastern.
China Eastern, which has a fleet of more than 80 aircraft, expects to have more than 150 after it completes a planned merger with China Northwest Airlines and China Yunnan Airlines.
Rockwell Collins designs communications and aviation electronics.
Company Web site: http://www.rockwellcollins.com
1. Maybe just a stab at showing some credibility.
2. It will take HRCT under 51% but it probably doesn't matter since ETLK is one of the companies they are divesting.
3. Decision to divest unprofitable subs not made until this year. Last year they needed the shares to maintain 51% ownership.
OT: FOR TFN
September 25, 2002
History has repeatedly shown that the military solution is the least-desirable way to resolve conflict. Smart leaders know that "supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy's resistance without fighting" – as the Chinese general, Sun Tzu, wrote years ago – and exhaust all other options before they unleash the dogs of war.
Instead, our president seems single-mindedly obsessed with attacking Iraq. For months the Bush war team has been talking up taking out Saddam and sneaking so many war toys into places like Qatar and Kuwait that it's a wonder our desert launching pads haven't already sunk from the weight of our pre-positioned gear and ammo.
So far, the emir of Kuwait has been picking up the tab for the American muscle deployed outside of his palace that lets him sleep at night without worrying about Iraqi tanks roaring through his front gate, as they did in 1990. But probably a key reason President Bush is so keen on pressing Congress to sanction his unrelenting march to battle is because thousands more armored vehicles and tens of thousands of warriors are already on the move.
Since it will soon be impossible to hide the buildup or cost, Bush clearly needs congressional consensus before the boys, bombs and bullets become the lead story on prime-time television.
Now it looks as though Congress is about to give Bush the green light for his shootout with Saddam rather than standing tall and insisting that United Nations weapons inspectors get another go at defanging the monster.
Almost 40 years ago, Congress kowtowed to another president from Texas and approved the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin Resolution – based on the repeated lies of Defense Secretary Robert S. McNamara that Red patrol boats had attacked U.S. warships on a supposedly routine mission off North Vietnam, which the senior admiral in the Pacific had predicted months before would provoke exactly this type of response and result in an escalation of the Vietnam War.
Only Sens. Wayne Morse of Oregon and Ernest Gruening of Alaska stood tall and voted “nay.” When Morse chillingly predicted we'd lose the war and LBJ would go down in flames, most members of Congress responded that they were patriotically backing the president in a time of crisis.
Before Congress blinks again, rubber-stamping one of the few wars in our country's history in which we've fired the first shot, the members should visit the Vietnam Memorial and read every name aloud on that black wall before blindly accepting their party machines’ go-along-to-get-along directives. They should ask themselves: “Do I want to be remembered as a William Fulbright – who pushed LBJ's bad resolution through the Senate, knowing all the while that he was repeating McNamara's spin – or as a Morse or Gruening?
They should also match what the ordinary folks who elected them are saying against the national polls’ war chanty, “Let's Push With Bush Into Baghdad.” Last week I visited four states, and all of the hundreds of average Joes and Janes I spoke with were for U.N. inspectors returning and our tightening the choke leash on Iraq enough that nothing gets in or out without going through a U.S.-manned checkpoint.
A Vietnam combat Marine told me: “Certainly Saddam is a tyrant and a threat to his neighbors. But so are the leaders of Syria, Iran, North Korea and, for that matter, Pakistan. All of our comrades who died in Vietnam and those of us who vowed ‘never again’ will now again watch another generation march off to war without the approval of the American people.”
“Who'll pay for it?” asks another citizen. “We all know it'll be our kids. They're the ones who will pay, as it has been since the Revolutionary War. Those who reap the rewards are of a different category.”
Congressmen and congresswomen, which category are you? Will you vote for your own political future or the future of our country and its current generation of defenders? Will you challenge the rush to war along with Rep. Jim McGovern, D-Mass., who said last week that giving Bush the same broad, unchecked authority Congress gave LBJ is tantamount to allowing him to start a war and saying, “Don't bother me, I'll read about it in the newspapers”?
© 2002 Col. David H. Hackworth. All opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of Military.com.
Medicis Announces License and Development Agreement with Dow Pharmaceutical Sciences
September 26, 2002 4:13:00 PM ET
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 26, 2002--Medicis MRX today announced it signed an exclusive license and development agreement with Dow Pharmaceutical Sciences, Inc. ("Dow") to develop and commercialize an important, patented dermatologic product. Specific details regarding the nature of the development project were not disclosed.
Terms of the agreement include an initial non-refundable payment, or special charge, of $5.4 million payable to Dow. Two additional potential payments totaling $10.9 million are due Dow upon successful completion of various development milestones. A payment of $8.8 million will be due Dow upon the first successful clinical milestone, which could occur as early as the second half of fiscal 2003. A payment of $2.1 million will be due Dow upon successful completion of the final specified development milestone, which could occur as early as the second half of fiscal 2004. An additional payment of $1 million will be due Dow upon FDA approval.
"We are pleased to announce this license and development agreement with Dow Pharmaceutical Sciences," said Jonah Shacknai, chairman and chief executive officer of Medicis. "Dow has a proven track record of developing innovative dermatologic specialties, utilizing their clinical expertise to deliver numerous successful products to the market. We believe this sophisticated late-stage development project will supplement our existing rich pipeline of products."
"This agreement with Medicis, a leader in the field of dermatology, validates our expertise in the development of dermatological products," said Dr. Bhaskar Chaudhuri, chief executive officer of Dow Pharmaceutical Sciences. "We welcome the opportunity to work with such a well respected partner."
Buffett expects markets to get worse
By Jon Ashworth
WARREN BUFFETT, the billionaire American investor, has given warning that stock markets will get worse before they get better –– but he still believes that equities are a good long-term investment.
In an interview, the so-called “Sage of Omaha’’ said that the world economy is paying the price for dot-com hype.
Mr Buffett said: “We’re in a long correction, because we had an incredible ‘mass hallucination’, ‘bubble’, whatever you want to call it. That carries a price with it, which has not been fully paid but which we’ve made a good downpayment on so far.”
He added: “It’s only in the rinse cycle that you find out how dirty the laundry’s been. We’re in the rinse cycle now.”
Mr Buffett has kept his faith in the markets. He said: “Long term, I’ve always been a bull. The American economy’s going to do very well. The UK economy’s going to do very well over time. But you get these periods when markets disconnect from the real world. We had a situation where the markets became totally disconnected from business reality. This was a pretty extreme case, but they get back in sync after a while. If you own equities for 25 years or 30 years, you will get a result that parallels that of business.”
Mr Buffett said that unscrupulous US executives took advantage of the late-1990s stock market hype. He said: “You had an erosion of accounting standards. You had an erosion, to some extent, in executive behaviour. But during a period when everybody ‘believes’, people who are inclined to take advantage of other people can get away with a lot.”
Mr Buffett was speaking while in London to promote NetJets, his fractional ownership jet operator. He is seeking acquisitions in the UK, but ruled himself out as a bidder for British Energy, the troubled nuclear power group.
Just as long as it is not predicting a bump on the head....
Charts, like tea leaves, can tell you anything you want to read into them.
The long and short of short-selling
This isn't a sport for amateurs. The downside is limitless, the subtleties complex. If you have the time to do the homework, here are some of the lessons I've learned the hard way.
By Bill Fleckenstein
Will everybody just settle down and squeeze together along the dissection table. No, you have not accidentally clicked onto some interactive biology lab. It's the latest chapter in the formaldehyde-free Contrarian Chronicles, where this week I'll offer a cross-sectional look not at splayed frogs but short-selling. Because of its complicated nature and inherent risk, this will be a demo class only. Still, fasten your safety goggles, and let's lace into that bird’s-eye view.
I'd like to devote these pages to a discussion of short-selling, in the hope of answering the many questions I have received on the subject. Let me be clear from the outset: My goal is not to advocate short-selling but to differentiate it from investing on the long side and to highlight what I think are some of its complexities and complications. The reason I offer this caution is not any belief that people at home are not smart enough (I'm sure they are), but rather because of the time-intensive "babysitting" involved in monitoring positions. This is just how I do it, after many years of working the problem, but other successful short-sellers do it differently.
Portfolio plumping through value ingesting
First of all, let me preface my thoughts with some comments on the value approach to investing. When investing on the long side (as I have done in the past and will do again in the future), I am a value investor. Without going into everything that this means, the one thing it allows for is averaging down as your initial investment "goes against you." Many, many times in my career, I have successfully averaged down in positions. If you have the confidence in your research that you are not averaging down into a WorldCom (WCOEQ, news, msgs) or an Enron (ENRNQ, news, msgs) or some other debacle, averaging down allows you to enhance your rate of return.
For instance, suppose a stock that you're interested in is selling for $50, and for whatever reason, you think it could go up to $100. If, the stock drops to $40 and you decide to buy it because you are confident that the value is there -- and that the perception of the problems is overblown -- and it then goes to $100, obviously, you're going to make 150% on your money.
Whereas, in the same situation, if you don't buy it when things are looking rather bleak, and you wait until the situation improves somewhat, perhaps you pay $60 for it, you are paying up only 20%. But if the stock goes to $100, your rate of return is going to be 66%. So there is just one example of how, if you're confident that your analysis is correct, averaging down into bad news really helps your rate of return.
Apples-and-orange futures
Now, let's segue to the short side, where I believe that averaging up blindly can lead to disaster. Before going any further, I'd like to introduce one other element here: In the art of speculating in commodities, price action means almost everything. Commodity traders call it "price discovery." Successful commodity speculators don't often average up or down as the price goes against them (preferring to "average in," as the price goes in their favor). They might add to their positions a little bit as the price goes against them; however, when faced with a big move against them, they generally close a position and re-enter at a later period. Fundamentals do matter in commodities speculation, but price action tends to be a far bigger determinant, at least for people who are successful at it. The aspect of price action is much more important in commodities speculation than it is for a value investor on the long side.
As you can see from my previous example, I don't put much faith in price action when I am an investor on the long side. But on the short side, it is often necessary to cut and run if, say, you are short a stock at $20 and soon after it goes to $25, for reasons that you don't understand or which really shouldn't be happening. Often, it's wise to reduce your position, or eliminate it entirely, and then revisit the subject at a future date, whether that might be later that day, a week later, two weeks later or a month later.
Believe me, that was a hard and expensive lesson for me to learn, and it's hard for anyone who comes from the value school to learn, in my opinion. Also, I would just point out that this is not necessarily the way everyone does it, just the approach that I have found to be successful.
In any event, the reason you have to be much more sensitive about price on the short side is that your losses are of course potentially open-ended. When you have a problem in your short portfolio, it gets bigger, whereas when you're investing on the long side, if you have a problem, it gets smaller. You buy a stock at $10 and it goes to $5, your investment is now reduced. You short a stock at $20 and it goes to $30, the size of your investment has now gotten bigger. So, there are complicating factors that I believe necessitate paying attention to price action.
Short-selling satisfaction through delayed herd-reaction
Obviously, when you are short, you're generally taking on lots of other people, meaning it's vital to get your research correct. Further, in view of what I've described, timing is more critical, though just as elusive, on the short side than on the long side. During the last five to seven years, the presence of some sort of catalyst has been crucial for getting people to reappraise their long positions. Often, a company had to come out and tell you, hey, we're going to miss the numbers, or some variation on that theme, when it's been completely knowable in advance that this outcome would be in the offing.
But investors don't seem to take that into consideration until the company actually says so itself; i.e., stocks generally don't tend to move down in advance of bad news. Whereas on the long side, stocks will sneak and creep and work their way higher in the absence of a catalyst, i.e., move up in advance of good news. This may change somewhere down the road. It wasn't always that way in the past. But for the last several years, and until it does change, the onset of a catalyst has often been important for convincing people to re-evaluate their positions and sell a stock.
Consequently, that is the reason I focus on technology. Most technology companies have public suppliers and public customers, and that allows you to have a chance to triangulate in on how a particular company is doing. Also, most of the time, tech companies don't have the flexibility, in terms of accounting, to attempt to change things materially. When they do, by stuffing the channel, it shows up in their accounts receivable. Or, if they try to play the game with margins, it turns up in inventories. So a lot of the classic things they do surface rather easily. This doesn't mean that people will immediately care, but at least you can see signs of trouble building. (Financial stocks, by comparison, can fall back on more flexible accounting rules, with respect to how they view their assets, and thus postpone the day of reckoning ad infinitum, it seems to me.)
Of triangulation and nascent elation
Of course, the other important reason tech stocks are interesting is the inherent factor of obsolescence, which makes technology such a crummy business. Even today, the prices for those businesses are still absurd, in many cases. So, it's an interesting pond to fish in, for all three of the reasons I've stated: the difficulty of the business, the richness of valuations and the ability to triangulate on the timing of a negative catalyst.
While you are waiting for your catalyst to develop, whatever that may be, it's important to try to keep the fantasy, or the imagination component, of the bull camp at bay. This is why the preannouncement season (a month or so before the quarter ends) is a riper time to establish positions than just after the end of earnings season. It seems that no matter how bad the news is, as soon as the bad news stops, fantasies resurface, and people reaffirm their desire to bid these companies up. So, here is one additional factor to pay attention to: where you are in the corporate news cycle, whether you're in the "no news" season or the preannouncement period. That said, just being in either one of those two seasons doesn't mean that you can't have news, or have the absence of news. This also has to be taken into consideration.
Ingredients in the big macro
Lastly, one has to assess the overall macro environment, vis-a-vis whether people have become overly bearish or overly ebullient. For example, last fall, a couple of weeks after Sept. 11, I covered almost all my shorts, because I felt that from a macro perspective, people were going to believe that the terrorist attack was the cause of all our negative developments in the stock market and the economy (even though I knew it wasn't), and that as we went to war in Afghanistan and won easily, people would become optimistic. I felt it would be difficult for stocks to go down in the short run, and I said so at the time. That kind of a macro call was important last year. Yet, as you can see, it had nothing to do with anything I've described thus far.
So, I think one can see the many considerations that go into running a short portfolio which are not necessarily present on the long side. It is for these reasons that I advocate that people at home who don't have full time to devote to it, and who are not experienced, not try to do this, because it is so time-consuming and complicated. Often, I use puts in lieu of short-selling, but because of the premiums involved, and the necessity of getting the always-elusive timing even more precise, puts are no panacea, either. I'd like to repeat that the tactics I have described are not the only ways of doing it. This is just what I find most successful.
William Fleckenstein is the president of Fleckenstein Capital, which manages a hedge fund based in Seattle. He also writes a daily Market Rap column for TheStreet.com's RealMoney. At time of publication, William Fleckenstein owned none of the equities mentioned in this column. Positions can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. The views and opinions expressed in Bill Fleckenstein's columns are his own and not necessarily those of CNBC on MSN Money.
Eh? What's that you say? I can't hear you over the aria.....
The chart does indicate that MRX would be a good short term swing trade. Thanks for the post.
All healthcare stocks are of interest to long term investors since it doesn't take a genius to figure out that as a large segemnt of the population (the baby boomers) begin to age that there will be increased spending in this area over the next two decades. The trick is to figure out which companies will be the ones to benefit the most from this trend. The large pharmas are obvious but they already have large market caps and thus will have a more difficult time posting large percentage growth figures.
Soooooo, which of the small and medium size companies will benefit the most?
They state that they are a niche player but have been expanding through acquisitions and development in the past couple of years. They seem to be moving more toward prescription products than over the counter ones. With limited information on what they are working on I agree that it is hard to value. They have turned out consistant profits but future growth potential is the area I would like to find out more about.
Don't know - I never heard him make any.
I have no guess as to whether or not there is something left there to play with. It does look as though someone has not been exactly up front about revs/earnings for some time.
Whatever that means....
Yep, but money flows into or out of a stock based on investor's perceptions as to how the company will perform in the future. It was the expected revs/profits that drove the stock price. When expectations dimmed, the price started falling. If there had been actual revs/profits or a continued expectation of them then the share price would have held at a reasonable level.... maybe not at the bubble high but certainly at a price considerably above a nickle. The demand (money flow in or out) is driven by expectations - real or imagined.
Alan said in '99 that HRCT was planning on acquiring a number of companies and combining them to create a larger, more viable company. While more than Sinobull were added as things went along, that was always the plan. Supposedly, these would companies that were capable of being turned around with the addition of capital and combined synergies. The falloff in market interest in developing companies certainly had an impact but you are correct that HRCT probably took on too many projects at once.
OT: Don't be depressed..... Detroit has won 2 more games than Tampa Bay has - lol.
OT: I'm not familiar with the place but I kind of suspected that these two bozos weren't from a housing development that didn't have wheels under each one.
I have to disagree..... Do you really think HRCT would be trading at a nickle if it had rising revenues and positive earnings? The few OTCBB companies that have managed to be in that position have been rewarded with reasonable share price support. When the share price was soaring, the plan was new and investors were betting on the future. Now they see that the plan will never come to pass. Those of us who are still holding are hoping that HRCT will be able to reconsitiute itself and move forward to a better plan. You can't expect much institutional investment when you can't tell them how or when you expect to make any money.
EDS isn't a comparable situation. Yes, they reported revs/profits but they were significantly lower than expected and the future forecast from the company stated that their business was drying up. The stock was overpriced in the first place and will probably fall further. They aren't making enough money to justify the market cap they had or even the one they still have at the moment.
OT: Bozo Report
William R. Ligue Jr., 34, of Alsip, was being held on one count of aggravated battery in a public way. The Class 3 felony carries a penalty of two to five years in prison. A relative who spoke to him Friday said he complained of sore ribs as a result of what one police official jokingly called "the Royal beating''--the Kansas City team's pummeling of Ligue and his 15-year-old son.
The son was charged as a juvenile with aggravated battery of a police officer and aggravated battery in a place of amusement. He was released to the custody of his mother in Blue Island but he was picked up by police and brought to the Cook County Juvenile Detention Center after it was discovered he had a prior record. He was charged with hitting his mother in May and burglary last September, a source said.
Declining revenues and lack of earnings along with lack of execution of projects announced in PRs. Revolving door personnel changes haven't helped either. These were not just limited to the CEO position.... the E-Education program went through 4 project managers in 10 months.
Andi - I can't understand what you are talking about. The market has little to do with HRCT subs losing money. HRCT is not growing strong. The lack of interest is not because the shareprice is going down. PRs aren't the fundament of anything..... revenues and earnings are. If David Chen's email is correct they are planning on selling off all of the unprofitable subs, which means all of them. The market may have had an effect on HRCT's being able to use equity financing to make acquisitions but other factors had a bigger effect on HRCT's stock price.
Mark was referring to the plan outlined to us in 1999 and according to Chen's email, no part of that plan remains. If they have a new plan (which they haven't disclosed) I hope it becomes successful but we will have to wait and see. There is no point in discussing subs and "partners" that will be gone in the near future.
This company is interesting in that with only 31 million shares outstanding, 99.9% of the float is held by institutions. (Mutual Funds, etc.) MRX has averaged 50% average annual revenue growth over the last 5 years and has been profitable for the last 8+ years. This stock is waaaay off the individual investor's radar screen. Gross profit margin is 83.6% and net profit margin is 23.5%.
Medicis posts higher 4th-quarter earnings on strong sales
August 27, 2002 4:57:00 PM ET
SCOTTSDALE, Ariz., Aug 27 (Reuters) - Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp (MRX), maker of prescription dermatology products, on Tuesday reported 22 percent higher quarterly earnings on increased sales of its key brands.
Medicis reported income of $16.9 million, or 55 cents per diluted share, for its fiscal fourth quarter, compared with $13.9 million, or 44 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. The results do not include a special charge of $5.2 million in the fourth quarter associated with a research and development collaboration, the company said.
The Scottsdale, Arizona-based company posted revenue for the quarter of $57.6 million -- a 31 percent increase over a year ago due to sales growth in several of the company's key products. Prescription volume growth for Medicis' eight core brands increased 63 percent, the company said.
"The successful entrance into the specialty of pediatrics provided a foundation of growth for our core dermatologic brands," said Chairman and Chief Executive Jonah Shacknai.
Medicis also said its forecast for 2003 earnings remained unchanged with the company expecting about $244 million in revenue and approximately $2.24 per share. For the first quarter of fiscal 2003, ending Sept. 30, 2002, Medicis said it expects approximately $58 million in revenue and earnings of about 53 cents a share. REUTERS
Medicis Pharmaceutical Corporation: Company Report
Medicis Pharmaceutical is in the skin trade. The company markets prescription skin products such as DYNACIN and TRIAZ acne medications; head lice treatment OVIDE; skin discoloration and hyperpigmentation treatments LUSTRA and LUSTRA-AF; and antifungal and corticosteroid products acquired from what is now Aventis. Medicis' customers are primarily such wholesale distributors as Cardinal Health (22% of sales) and McKesson (18%). Although the company continues to sell ESOTERICA over-the-counter skin creams and moisturizers, it is focused primarily on expanding its lucrative prescription business. Medicis Pharmaceutical, which has acquired Ascent Pediatrics, licenses all manufacturing of its products to other companies.
International Rectifier Corporation: Company Report
International Rectifier (IR) sets electricity on the right path. The company is a major manufacturer of power semiconductors, which refine the electricity flowing into a device from a battery or a power grid, thus enabling more efficient operation. IR's products -- including MOSFETs (metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistors), diodes, and rectifiers -- are used in consumer appliances, automobiles, computers, communication devices, lighting, and military applications. Top customers include Alcatel, Boeing, Robert Bosch, Lucent, Mitsubishi, Philips, Siemens, and Sony. More than three-fifths of IR's sales are to customers outside the US.
You do need to get out of the city more often.... lol.