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Steve
Your idea sounds pretty much like the vision I had when betting the farm on AMD. K.
yb
I though[t] Xeon has L3 cache, while P4 doesn't?
Not all of them. But there are models with L3-Cache of different sizes.
It's not the same die, afaik.
Exactly. Added in packaging.
K.
yb
Intel is cooking Xeons quite different from P4's
A common error. But still an error. While you are right for Pentium-Ms.
Noone can do it
Another common error. AMD can. As time will make evident.
K.
HPQ
"According to this claim, the ProLiant DL 145 will effectively displace HP's DL 140, a dual Xeon system."
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=13923
Duuh. If true, that spells six-digit CPU volumes per quarter.
Impact one magnitude over IBMs 325-positioning on a Richter-scale of marketquakes.
K.
keith
Yup. Fujii, not Samsung. The S2000. Very same form factor used here for Centrino and Athlon-M. K.
keith
I dont think your number for thermal limit for Thin and Lights is accurate. Samsung(?) has an Athlon-M-LV Thin and Lights with a thermal design point of 35 Watts.
Then, you named it, couple of other things like form factors come into play; heatpipes, optimized fans and airflow characteristics are in its juvenile stages presently. It ist just a matter of time when these things will be ready for the market. Some of them are already announced.
In essence, I would see the thermal limits of CPU in a Thin and Light design be closer to 50 than to 25 Watts. Should not be the bottleneck for A-64-LV.
K.
keith
Yeah. Sure does. Intel is trying to expand the integrated approach it already began by means of Centrino. I am sure that it will be successful, just because it makes sense from a technical as well as a commercial point of view.
K.
keith
Well. TDP is not what we should look at. Average power consumption is.
But well, i agree in your point, as I have to acknowledge the world is looking at numbers regardless of their relevance.
For those, LV will do. Matching Pentium-M in TDP and performance for mobile use but adding value for being 64-bit capable and delivering additional horsepower when operated on the mains.
K.
Keith
The TDP is the thermal design power, and that has to go down quite a bit still.
Why?
I think this will still take some time.
Sure. A lot will depend on displays, i.e. when 15" OLED will be available in volume. If AMD can get their hands on it first for notebook designs, they would be right there - if not ahead.
K.
keith
While I see some progress, I don´t see that. What exactly are you referring to? Dothan is @ 21W at 1.8 Ghz!?!
For mobile operation the maximum powerstate is pretty irrelevant. To compare notebook CPUs powerspecs @800MHz (A-64) and @600MHz (Banias, as i dont have Dothan-specs) is what gives a better basis to estimate battery runtimes.
TDP of CG-Stepping is down to 13W here, including some things not included for the Banias specs here (which is below 10W).
Presently, mobile CG-Stepping does not yet match Pentium-M, let alone Centrino. Here is why: http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=8374.
But it is coming way closer. LV-A64 on mobile chipsets and integrated grafics will probably match Pentium M.
K.
Buggi
Thanks. Should i understand DIMM Matching Algorithm and En2T adressing the very same issue in the context that DIMM M.A. allows identification of DIMMs available and En2T allows the memory controller to make use of 2T Memory-Timings if available?
K.
Buggi - anyone
While I am very very pleased to see a mobile CPU (3200AR) coming close to Pentium-M already in power specs already,
can somebody enlight me please what this is all about?
Added “DIMM Matching Algorithm”.
Added Enable 2T timing (En2T) bit to “DRAM Configuration Low Register”.
Added “Interrupt Pending Message Register”.
Thanks.
K.
cg
... or better still, is based on IA-64...
You're thinking of this EL-X86-64 thing Goto refered to recently? (If not, what else?)
K.
rupert, I_banker
Ok, its not the location. It is most likely a firewall or proxy. I just tried it by switching off the firewall, SI is snappy then.
K.
keith
Ok. I dont have that. K.
Keith
Q3 Gartner numbers posted here: http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=19753412 , 60K for SUN
K.
DARBES
it will some day be viewed as one of the classic market inefficiencies of all time
Lol, no. It is not even a market inefficiency at all, using the term in its economical definition.
Assuming your assumptions about the prospects of AMD are not far off (I actually do indeed), institutional inertia would be appropriate to characterize the pattern we are looking at.
Using your picture, look at the herd walking on the trails where it found green grass for ages - only couple of black sheep are heading for some sweet and juicy flowers off the trail for now.
As far as history tells that can go very long and very far - but it never went on forever. Most likely the herd will change direction as soon as the grass on the trail is turning brown. Capital is extremely mobile, stampede is always possible for no obvious reason.
K.
i_banker
Same for me, but only since couple of weeks. It is not the content-, but an adserver slowing it down. Apparently it also depends where you are. Somebody on SI complained lately, reply indicated it is still snappy for most.
Are you in Europe?
K.
joe
economaniac was definitely one of the sharpest knives in the RB-drawer. He posted couple of times on ihub as well. Hope he is well.
K.
i_banker
The tax thing for the internet-purchases could be easily resolved by means of just setting up a company, iaw that has nothing to do with the emachine-transaction.
As for closing outlets, i can't tell. I could even imagine we have only seen step one of a bigger plan and Wayne has already worked out a deal with BestBuy for Gateways retail business - now that would make a round thing at the end for me.
K.
paul
BestBuy and others might stay happy as long they take shares from Gateway, make money and are maybe even supplied with products not offered at Gateway.
I am not saying it could impossibly work. Many companies in this industry are vertically integrated and sell their products through other distributors as well. But in this particular configuration... i mean it would be easier to imagine if emachines would have taken over Gateway. But (at least formally) the guy showing up at Best Buy very soon is the CEO of its Competitor.
More generally speaking, I dont like concepts implying conflicting interests. For the very same reason i was always uneasy about AMDs options exchange program - which should finally be behind us today. (I knock on wood that I will find an appropriate SEC-filing monday morning).
K.
keith
Dont you think it has to be seen if BestBuy and others will be happy to be supplied by their competitor before making conclusions? Wayne today in the call admitted frankly he did not talk to any of his customers about this deal.
OTOH, he could not admit if he did. That is why none of the analysts was cheeky enough to ask this question. Wayne said so anyway, that is why I am inclined to take it for real.
I cant help, I went out of the call with the impression some shirt-sleeved folks are doing hands-on business here. Which could go well but not necessarily will. What the guys put on the table today was far from being considered as a business plan.
K.
keith re: Klaus, and that is...?
A homework question.
K.
If you are as smart as your last post was cheeky, you will have the answer in a minute.
keith
Oh boy. Why don't you look after which strike price all these 13MM options have?
K.
keith
Here is the link again. Hope it works now.
http://amd.edgarpro.com/redirect_frames.asp?filename=0001193125%2D03%2D025828%2Etxt&filepath=%5C...
K.
paul, keith
http://amd.edgarpro.com/redirect_frames.asp?filename=0001193125%2D03%2D025828%2Etxt&filepath=%5C....
Item 4. Check your calendar.
K.
Keith
Sure. Are you surprised?
K.
borusa
Sorry, Typo. Should be ESOP.
Employee Stock Options Program (or Plan)
K.
doug
Or will LGA775 may deliver anything besides higher speed for more power?
Most probably not. Why should it? Intels aim is not delivering performance but making money.
Higher clockspeed already proved to be sufficient to achieve that. Why change a successful strategy?
the maximum speed by the end of the year is 4Ghz on Intel roadmaps.
Same comment. Intels aim is not to be impressive for geeks but to make an impressive amount of money. What is wrong to manufacture as many 4 GHz CPUs as the market is absorbing for Gmax pricepoint using technology to make it really cheap and make a ton of money with it?
On EE: EE failed badly to keep the performance crown. That is pretty ugly for Intel. Not because they would worry about performance at all but because the halo of the crown is worth some hundred million dollars income per year for intel.
K.
keith - Flash
I don´t expect more than breakeven +/- a few millions. What do you expect?
LoL, Keith, now imagine I would be really, really keen on one of the T-Shirts of the next Contest. Then I would have to guide into any direction I believe leads to nowhere :)
We know FASL is still ramping capacities and migrating to higher densities, to Mirrorbit and to 130nm. Adds up for increased capacity for Q1.
We know there are lead-times of up to 13 weeks for certain products. I assume average lead-times are four weeks or so, expect FASL to sell the capacity almost completely, see lower prices contracted, completely different from what spotprices indicate.
--->Revenues 575-600 MM, trending to the upper edge. Some 10 MM contribution to operational income. Significant sharegains with it. Inventories slightly up.
K.
ps: Patrick, jaixx disregard ;)
Keith
Let me put it that way: Look at accounting as one of the instruments of guidance.
To prevent from any possible misunderstanding: I am completely convinced AMDs quarterly figures are in perfect harmony with every law, and with GAAP as well.
But it would be naive to believe there is only one "right" way of presenting results of the quarter. As well it would be naive to understand ex-post figures completely independent from forward looking statements. To be convincing, this all has to be stage-managed consistently.
K.
ps: On a side note, DRBES' ongoing "herd"-analogy is ultimatively stringent in these respects. Although I am afraid few might be aware of the picture whenever he comes up (two or three times a day on average? with it.
joe
Its just not visible right now. Prescott has the very same objective as Willamette had: Produce Megahertz. As soon as a nasty little gap is closed by means of migration to LGA775, it will likely achieve its objective.
The migration to 90nm/300mm has nothing to do with it. It has another objective: Costs.
That both is happening at the same time is unusual, more important it is coincidence. Mixing the obove things up will likely result in bad conclusions.
I wont comment on your postulations about Intels capacities and yields.
K.
keith
Anyway I look at that, the "guidance", if accurate, is very dissapointing for the foreseeable future.
That is exactly what the guidance was intented to be perceived, Keith.
K.
borusa
You probably refer to the dates when the options can be executed?
ESPOPs are longterm incentives issued to keep Human Resources aboard over decades. The execution allowances lie anywhere between immediately (very little of the options exchanged I guess) and dates within the next ten years, maybe even fifteen years.
K.
keith
Imminent? Certainly not in Q1, according to the CC.
Hmm. The CC i listened to guided flash flat for a seasonal down quarter.
Unless you asume market growth exceeding seasonal effects or better ASP, that spells market share gains.
They could have expressed that in a bragging or bullish way, which they deliberately avoided. For good reasons.
Bottomline, think about the difference of forecast and guidance. What you were listening to was a (successful)guidance
K.
elmer
Holding back? Building inventory? Talking about products out from a fab running on volume for half a year qualified for revenue shipments months ago, i am not sure any conclusions for bins or yields are possible just from the fact that they are finally selling it.
K.
Joe
Die you already forget Willamette?
The piece you are probably missing is socket LGA775 to allow Prescott to behave exactly like Willamette (actually, Willamette was a lot worse compared to its predecessor).
So, specific to your question, its performance, but only in dimension. More precise, perceived performance.
K.
Merlinson
Seems a bit premature to be that critical.
Yes. Exactly my take as well. Prescott will have to be assessed as LGA 775 incarnation on Grantsdale boards.
Any conclusion before that is indeed premature. I mean it is already clear it is not really a step forward; but it will most probably scale in clockspeed - thats what it is built for.
As far as history tells: Willamette was definitely a lot worse - and sold like hot cakes.
But well, AMDroids swam through troubled waters for long - for that it is quite understandable to make use of some bragging rights extensively - you never know for how long you have it .
K.
yb
Millions, but that is beside the point.
http://amd.edgarpro.com/redirect_frames.asp?filename=0001193125%2D03%2D025828%2Etxt&filepath=%5C...
K.
yb
It is not up to me to give any advise when to go long (or short) in AMD.
As for most recent performance, it just shows market expectations wrt AMD have very little to do with analyst consensus currently. Iaw these guys comments about AMD have more entertaining character than being taken serious in the market.
(Which just shows there is intelligent live on earth).
(Which would allow other conclusions as well if you will, given the number of postings on the boards discussing it )
Wrt options exchange programm, I have been posting frequently about it here. I wont go into that again today in detail, everything is public in form of AMDs SEC-filings.
I will just be happy when it is behind us - you will be surprised what difference this date makes within the next couple of weeks in terms of Investor-Communications, that's as far as i am inclined to lean out of the window - maybe though thats gonna change gradually and may only begin after some shame period.
K.