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A huge win here is that the bank sees Elite as an acceptable risk. Banks will not make loans when funds are critically needed (e.g., liquidity crisis) as the principal will be at risk. Banks are very risk averse.
Because we basically have one share outstanding for the entire US and Europe population combined.
I do think Elite will reach 100M and beyond if they don’t get acquired, but not within 3 years as stated earlier. FDA review and launch take far too long to make this feasible.
We have also seen with Elite that market size doesn’t matter too much, within reason, based on their flagship products. We know that Adderall IR is a fraction of XR and yet the income from IR is a multiple of XR. Elite’s IR does have an additional 2 years of being in the market than XR, but Lannett has barely been able to scratch the surface with XR in a 1B+ market in over 2 years. August report will provide interesting insights in Y/Y growth from XR, but think it will be lower than what we saw in 2021. Organic growth is much more difficult than growth from new products.
Finally someone that has the financial experience shareholders need. Looking forward to Chen’s leadership.
I think 3 years is a stretch at this rate of development. Vigabatrin will hopefully launch within the next 3-4 months, which provides little benefit to 2022 rev as it ramps up. Elite has no idea what it’s doing with Doxy at this point. Rev growth can be bought with Adderall rights from Mikah, but that will come at a cost, but growth is growth. I think the pipeline needs to move much faster to grow over 3x in 3 years. Even if an ADT is submitted Q1/Q2 next year, there would be no financial benefit next year as it takes 10+ months for FDA to review. Then layer on marketing/distributor partnership and then launching. Perhaps 3 years is possible to hit 100M, which would be great to see, but I think it’s unrealistic. Aug earnings call will give us some insight into organic growth over last year, which I expect to be slightly up, but far less than the 27% growth we experienced for FY22.
He threw out the verbiage that some potential products are down to market size of Loxapine. Those will not move the share price, but they could add a little more stabilization to the company. No one knows true market sizes and Elite’s potential penetration. Would be hard for analysts to create any semblance of forward PE with how little is communicated.
Wasn’t that just Doxy & Vigabatrin? Both were approved after Q3. I don’t think FDA is reviewing anything else submitted by Elite.
I interpreted that we will not have any ANDAs filed this year. Last cc, I was more hopeful that we’d get a couple in Q4. Yesterday sounded more like the 4 planned for this year will be 1H next calendar year. I am assuming this potentially delays the 4 filings for next year as well.
Timing was mentioned
You did hear they would do a 10 or 20 RS to get to Nasdaq, right?
Just means Elite can only have one marketing/distributor partner for the US. That’s all it means.
“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt.”
Why would he say Elite would expect a large % of the market? There are over a dozen companies making this product in powder form alone, excluding tablet + the branded form.
I think this is part of the reason for the term loan too and perhaps why we hadn’t gone to NASDAQ. It would take a long time to replace Lannett if they decide to go solo with Adderall IR & ER and get revs where they are today. If Lannett pulls the plug…well he better be looking hard right now for a Plan B. Going solo is not the answer yet.
10K: A-
Earnings call: C+
CEO has had bonus paid in shares since last year, if not little earlier. No update here.
I agree on the no response on Mikah rights for Adderall. Perhaps we hear more during August call.
No insight given on Q1 revenues, which he has. He has provided this sporadically in the past. I would think of good growth over LY, he would communicate.
Along with many other questions I submitted. Cc was not much of an event. Clarification on couple minor things, but ignored many others.
Elite being self marketer/distributor for Adderall, their largest drugs would be a huge risk.
Oh, how I love to hear this waiting music each quarter. :)
I submitted the same. Last we heard was mid-2022 was target date to acquire rights from Mikah.
Usually I have seen different wording when funds are used for HQ needs labeled as “general corporate purposes” vs working capital.
We also know that significant funding is needed to move SequestOx forward. I doubt anything will be used towards that as FDA extended filing fee waiver expires in a year, but perhaps in a couple years we can move that off the backburner. Elite has been diluted to oblivion due to SequestOx. I’d like to see some sort of ROI on SequestOx investment.
Better option than Bitcoin. :)
I don’t think anyone said it had been sold. It’s been sitting for several years. On to the backburner and Oxy ADT potentially comes off.
I missed the use of the term loan when doing a quick run through. Interesting.
Balance sheet looks solid. Took out $12M term loan with $2M revolver, which should rule out dilution. Solid move from capital structure standpoint.
Was surprised at FTE count of 43. Would have expected more. Want to hear about operations growth/strategy for asset utilization.
After quick review of financials - looks like a solid quarter. Good consistent rev growth & managing expenses tightly, but some due to R&D delays.
Very nice. Looking forward to diving deeper.
FDA docs were clear that this is powder form.
The proof is in the magnitude of the outstanding share count for this size company. Hopefully that will be addressed over time as approvals and launches keep coming.
Using prior quarter commentary for this quarter does not apply during a global supply chain crisis unless you typically drive staring in the rearview mirror.
It follows the financial reporting during past CFO’s tenure - almost correct, but not quite.
Let’s certainly hope not. Company isn’t ready for that yet.
This is standard wording for Reg FD and some other 8K filings. Feel free to alert the myriad of other companies that use similar canned wording. :)
Mid-term should rise, near-term it may slightly pop if an 8K is filed or it may continue to hover range bound due to the billion shares outstanding. Float needs to get eaten up and while we’re on the OTC,
It is extremely unlikely.
Maybe it’s the last part of the package deal to Nostrum. :)
Probably just timing.
I think some of these are tablet vs oral solution too.
This is a non-payment risk, but don’t think it is that significant. Lannett will want to continue business operations. All payables due prior to bankruptcy would be a potential hit to Elite and would take many many months to hash out in bankruptcy court if they get anything or small amount to every dollar owed, but Lannett will want to maintain status quo much as possible. Lannett will keep operating and they need Elite’s CNS partnership as of today. Lannett will want to do what they can to keep relationships in good standing.
Since cc is 3 business days away it may not get a separate 8K, but I’d be surprised if this was the case.
Simply stating that BE Equivalency does not equal 99% approval rate as you stated. SequestOx is a prime example.
How’s SequearOx working out?
Lol Any sort of “monster” won’t be filed this year. Per last cc, everything is getting pushed out, which means about 18 months - 2 years away from hearing from approval standpoint.