Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Dew, how will affect Mnta suit against Teva then ?
<That’s exactly what I’m expecting Teva to tell the Judge. This ties right in with my conjecture in #msg-58703289 that Teva will go to great lengths to avert legal discovery.>
Can I say then that indeed Teva has skilfully negated the effect of MNTA suit with this move ?
With today's event, the uncertainty over t-enox remains full fledged ; the sword of Damocles ( ie t-enox approval in near future) firmly hanging over Mnta's head and Teva's boots of FUD firmly glued onto Mnta's back.
OT: Interesting BW article on China
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_04/b4212058566865.htm
When Sandoz disclosed that the FDA has done inspection of its manufacturing plant, I became aware that it is in Austria even though the city name escapes me now.
When Teva mentioned that its manufacturing facilities have been "inspected" by the FDA, I don't remember that it actually said where.
Therein is the difference.Could be big, could be small . May or may not mean much depending on personal interpretation.
In the case of Momenta , Sandoz/NVS did disclose of the FDA inspection of their manufacturing plant in Austria, in the earlier part of 2010 with approval in July, as I remember.
It would be logical to infer the same would apply to Teva.
Hats off to "the squid". They sure are smarter than the average bear.
Very clever indeed.
A couple of days ago I was reading some financial blog ( i believe it was abnormalreturns.com) and ran across one of those advising posts on trading/investing rules and one stuck out as appropriate for mnta.
"Don;t make an investment out of a trade and don't trade away an investment".
I agree with some people here that mnta is an investment . Once you have done your dd and put down your chips, you have to wait ; an investment takes time. It's only been 5 months since July 23. imo an investment like mnta takes at least a yr for the thesis to get traction.
I think what he means is that he is very unhappy about mnta pps, probably an understatement for the last day of the yr.
Since most people here, including myself, seem to agree with you on the value of mnta as a company, ie being longs, he rues the day when you, as the captain of HMS Mnta, orders "all hands abandon ship".
Well said.
The issue is not Cramer himself. Like you said, Cramer pretends to know a lot of stocks, hence his knowledge and understanding on any of them, cannot amount to much.
The real issue is why does he still have a job ? My own personal answer to that question tells me a lot about the psychology of the "market", the retailers or the "investors" whichever way one chooses to call them.
Take the recent move of arna for example. There is no reason imo why it should go up 50% in one day, only to give it back. Buying begets buying, selling begets selling ;nothing but herding factor.
The issue is that the "market" as experienced daily is mostly composed of "investors" not willing to wait 6 months or even 3 months, and definitely not 2 yrs.
<I am willing to bet against anyone, Goldman included, that if tlovenox is not approved for two more years, MNTA stock is going to be significantly higher than $15.>
<Again imputing something to me that is highly suspect - that I love the term 'paradigm shift'. And then hinting that only physician's are entitled to medical opinions? Or some other form of stereotyping? Really? On a board where >50% of the interesting analysis posts are written by non medical/researcher "professionals" (well, ok, that's kinda cheating since Dew posts more than anyone else on the board by a large amount -g-)
>
I believe I have seen that line of reasoning before. An econ from the Fed Reserve Board wrote an opinion on WSJ (I think) that because most opinions written on financial blogs are written by people not trained in economics, basically it is gibberish they are presenting to the public.
A quote from Abraham Lincoln best summed up this situation:
------------
"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt " ABe Lincoln
-----------
Btw, I don't think Abe was talking about you :)
Same psychological factors that keep retailers from selling losing positions.
Agreed.The friction cost in option is horrendous whether buying or selling. I have made my decision that options playing is not optimum, unless I wish to hedge my risk.
In which case it is the same as buying insurance and then the friction cost makes sense to me.
Well put. eom
DD, I remember reading that to this day Google is still subsidizing YouTube although I can't remember by how much.
Your point is well taken. Over the years, I have come to the decision or realized that analysts are not that stupid, or at any rate any more stupid than the mass of common retailers.
However, they are not irrational by any means . Like myself, they do what is needed to keep their job.
What they don't do is to give me, a common retailer, a free lunch. That is the most important I've learned over the years.
Option writers usually win and option buyers usually lose over a long period.
That is a statement I would agree with based on my own experience.
But let's go back to the beginning of this issue. Basically , a person with a finite amount of cash wants to leverage that position. That would put him/her squarely in the buyer category of options.
DD is correct. If I have limited amount of $ and I am so sure of the price direction of any stock and being greedy I want to maximize my leverage then the most optimum way is to flatly be long on margin.
It is hard enough to correctly predict the future price of any stock and to be correct in a certain time frame results in a doubly difficult situation. Most retailers imo are just not sharp enough to win in the option games as consumers or buyers.
But that is my point; if retailers are sharp enough they would be writers not buyers of options.
I believe you've hit the nail squarely on the head.
I know you are only speculating, but your logic/reasoning makes very good sense to me.
I had a AON 1500sh order at 14.6 and it did not fill.
Not too long ago Arna has a bigger cap than Mnta also.
I look at these things as the retailers paying the fees to WS.
So is the same guy buying Oct10 puts on TEVA to hedge the play or double down with Oct10 TEVA calls ?
I mean if your reasoning is correct that would be the logical thing to do, right ?
Is it that Sandoz/Mnta do have a decent chance to win thier suit against Teva based on inequitable conduct ?
<Who is right? The longs? Or the shorts and insider sellers? >
I make distinction between retailer shorts and the pro shorts. Retailer shorts imo are just the mirror image of retailer longs jumping from one hot stock to another and ending up paying the "vig".
My take is that the increase in shorts is the retailer kind.
My explanation is even simpler than that.
Price is always set at the margin in a market system. And the margin is the retailers. And the retailers jump from one hot stock to another.
I look at arna,vvus and orex as an example. None of these companies have any earning, hence no p/e ratio to speak of. So tell me why did arna make a round trip from 3 to 8 and back (and then some); vvus was 12 and changes with no earning whatsoever and the same with orex.
To me psychological factors are more important than TA or I may even say that psychological factors help me make sense of certain TA rules.
Dew, I am confused bout m-copaxone.
Have you changed your answer ? I remember you used to answer people asking when can Sandoz/Momenta start selling generic Copaxone that the earliest date is the earlier these two dates : Feb 2011 or a court judgment dismissing Teva suit.
Of course assuming that FDA also grants approval of generic copaxone before the Feb 2011 date. Without FDA approval, there is no selling of anything, generic or otherwise.
<Moreover, nothing currently going on in the Court could preclude NVS/MNTA from continuing the generic-Copaxone program; in the worst case, NVS/MNTA would simply have to wait until Teva’s Orange-Book patents expired in 2014.>
Remember dndn ?
Fell from low 20s to single digits in a few mns .
So it is manipulation ,so what ? you no like , you no play.
Same as if you no like the way people drive on LA freeways, you no live in LA.
<And you wonder why the normal person has lost faith in this market? >
Well, according to him, the "normal person" is in the "market" to solely make a profit. If for some reasons the "normal" person loses his shirt, the answer must be some sort of cabal or conspiracy.
An Abby Normal like myself is forced to conclude that the "normal" person is nothing more or less than a moron, a greedy one at that.
Good grief where do these people come from ?
It's always the same old tiring bullshit whine. Let's see : if it ain't pumpers then it is shorts, naked shorts ,I would like to see one myself especially of the other sex :), or "hedgies" and MMs...
What happened to personal responsibility ?
Last I check, nobody is holding any gun to my head or anyone's head to force me to buy anything.
Exactly. Mental stop is what I use. Unfortunately, mental stop requires personal discipline which is in short supply in most people, including myself.
As an example, automatic stop would have taken me out on mnta, since I am currently sitting with a 12% loss and 10% is the "common" trigger for stop loss.
However, not only did I not cut bait on mnta, but I have been actually averaging down : the anti thesis of the automatic stop loss rule. You just don't pile in on a loss.
But then there was the recent news of Druckmiller retirement and I did learn a lesson from him.
When I think of the dot com bubble which is a true bubble, any investor in it would come out with a loss of say 80%, 90% or even 100%.
Compare to that sort of loss magnitude, a hair cut of 5%, 10% from a bond fund would be great in comparison.
Beside if I don't want to rush out the door along with the other guys and sit tight, the loss I would I incur from a bond fund run would be small if I stay until maturity.
Well, the answer to the issue you raised is also implied in the question you pose.
If a person is to invest in bonds, don't do it through mutual funds.It is actually not that hard to buy it directly and the mkt in Treasury issues is quite/very liquid.
On the other hand, apparently the common "investor" as you would imagine him probably will also be a firm believer in the EMH as he does seem to ascribe all sorts of information implicit in the daily variations of the stock price.
The pragmatist capitalist has a good rejoinder to the Bond Bubble meme.
http://pragcap.com/the-myth-of-the-great-bond-bubble
Mnta is down 16% and Teva is up 1.6%.
And the news is supposed to good for Teva. I bought some more too at the low 17s.
You guys should let off WallStArb.
His style or personality doesn't bother me. besides it is bad karma to kick a person once he's off the horse.
At least he is not ragging on the "longs" that piled on in after the approval in the low 20s and now are sitting on a loss, including myself.
I have been averaging down since Jul 23 , a practice well honed through ownership of elan, and today bought another couple Ks.
Btw, I remembered Sanford Bernstein from the Elan pre ICAD 2008 (known to us elan longs as WTF week). SB was all glowing positive about Bap going into Icad 2008. They were wrong. What I don't remember is the analyst name, whether it was the same guy or not.
Me too, thanks Dew for making the MNTA case. Typical knee jerk reaction from late retailers. eom
Yep, I owe this one to Dew. He has made a very good and clear case for MNTA.
I double up today on my core holding. I agree with the opinion that the position has been derisked considerably and there still plenty of upcoming events ahead from the pipeline.
How is ITMN doing AH? Thanks. eom
I'm sorry if I am not quite correct.
However, at the end of the day, for a stat ignoramus like myself, would I have made a profit had I agree with you or Ocyan ?
I am very glad I fell on Ocyan's side. Thank you, Linh.
The fight about Provenge was on IV board
Before Impact release last Apr09, Dew was adamant it would fail to be stat sig due to PSB (programmed survivor bias).
Lucky for me I read both sides of the argument and took Ocyan's side. It has been very rewarding for me.
As an aside, I too bought a stake in mnta sub 10 . I sold out in the 15s though. That I have to thank him for.
So how do you explain DnDn being up 8% this morning ?
The last AC vote was actually positive.
With more solid data this time, would it be any different ?
Actually, imo an AC will be quite positive for Provenge as it focuses attention on the drug and the company, in the long term.
In the short term, weak hand bailing may depress the pps , but I expect it to be transitory, like this morning PM negative selleing by retailers.
So who is to decide on the shadiness of the rumor poster ?
I believe I can fend for myself deciding what to believe and what not ?
It is my own responsibility : caveat emptor as always.