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Re : Fall Federal Canadian Elections
does anyone have an opinion on wether a partisan vote or a strategic vote would be best for cannabis reform. Weve heard from industry execs (at TWD/TMI) and others, that this election could be the single most affecting event. As investors we vote with our dollars in the market, as citizens we cast a ballot. So my question is what voting/political strategy can the cannabis community enact in the coming months to acheive the goal of positive cannabis reform?
TWD Mentioned in American Article on Quality Control in the indusrty:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/booming-cannabis-industrys-need-for-quality-control-can-be-solved-2015-06-23?reflink=MW_news_stmp
This article is heavy on American Producers, which is a different market altogether. But its interesting to highlight the trend, both for medical and recreational, to maximize the quality standards across the board from seed to sale. This is not only essential IMO, but inevitable for any consumable product for sale to the public.
This begs the question then: How preposterous would it be to imagine in Canada, a Medical or recreational marijuana industry surviving without proven seed to sale quality? Would that not put consumers in limbo, not knowing if what they are buying is what they think it is. How often would anyone feeling ill accept very well pressed red pill from a local shop with out a producers label? MMAR was 1.0, great for opening up the accessibility for those in need. MMPR is the 2.0 of Canada's MMJ industry. Look out 2.1 and so forth.
In the conference yesterday, Bruce spoke to legal dispensaries being a great plus if Lp's were able to do so also inside Mmpr. Instead we have this ridiculous regulatory dichotomy that prevents the law abiding business doing what essentially illegal ones are.
Very soon the arguement of lack of supply will vanish and cost concerns will vanish. e The dispensaries will have to answer to quality when there own customers voluntarily have product tested against the higher standards, and the law when regulations start being enforced.
All said, its not a competition between Mmar v mmpr IMO. It more like waiting for the slow moving dinosaur squad that is health canada, law enforecement and the federal government to iron out the insecent creases and have an industry all of Canada, West to East , can be proud of.
For now, Dispensaries and Lp's are actually opperating in seperate markets IMO. Admittedly the market sales are 5-1 respectively for on the surface "similar " product, buy only take one layer off at a time and one can see the stark differences. Primarily the physician gate keeper model of the MMPR and the Skype naturopath model of dispensaries. The accountability of physicians to patients and LP product to patients is the foundation of the Medical model. Dispensaries, although many serve a legitemate purpose, are covered by a thick grey cloud of pseudo recreational use. Its easy to see why a recreational user would go to a diapensary. They are readily accessible. I dont see why a genuine Medical user would use a dispensary unless the supply and physician were fully accountable.
Dispensaries = Hells Angels Retail
Thanks for the update Herb. I had forgotten.
Re: Extracts
As investors, we can all put ourselves in a thoughtful position where if we were required to vote on a key decision that will affect the corporation, the most responsible decision should prevail. Not negating the venturous spirit, one must always think before a move. With that said, we can look to the Tweed Vice President Mark Zekulin.
"Mr. Zekulin has kept himself busy providing legal, political and strategic advice to high-profile local and international corporate clients, most recently as Counsel at the Ottawa-Washington international trade law firm of Cassidy Levy Kent. Mr. Zekulin is a graduate from the University of Waterloo in Mathematics, the University of Ottawa in Law, and the University of Cambridge in International Law."
http://www.bloomberg.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=254215466&ticker=TWMJF
Tweed IMO will approach the question of extracts first with a legal approach, not risking the entire venture on a potential loss of licence. Anything done in this area will be lawful. With that in mind, the "law", or lack thereof being enforced by Health Canada/Ambrose can certainly be challenged by TWD and Perhaps a Class of LP's. Who better to approach such matter than a Vice President with a formidable education in Law? Would investors support the expense of legal action? I certainly would, or do we continue to wait for Canadians to vote in a reform favorable political party. For that I have less hope.
Jacobs securities is arranging a private placement for LP's at Mondays conference. Will be interesting to see the offer. My partner will be attending. I wont be able to be there. Should be very interesting and informative.
Tweed Farms IMO was the most important aquisition. The production capacity, cost savings and increase in yeild from the green house will allow TWD to used the smith falls location for added value product while mainaning inventory. Smith falls becomes the father room for R and D proprietary strains , Production and Packaging for all types of extract. It will take time to build out and develope and the legal framework of extracts to open. Patients may be the best move.
Hi Tweed Investors. Ive been quietly reading this blog for weeks now. I stopped posting after one of the Bonnoz replied to me on this blog insighting the Hells Angels towards me. Personally, I fear no one. I make devils like Bonnoz my lap dog, but I have a family to that comes first, so I leave the pettiness alone. I thank the moderators on this board for keeping it civil.
Its interesting to note that an MMAR advocate so casually insights rutheless street gangs while claiming fair accessibility to cannabis. This is exactly the reason why TWD is here. For responsible cannabis consumers. Criminals will piggy back any tame horse they can find. its the fighting Bucks they have problems with.
I just read about the blocking feature and Wow! Its great. Noise filter on. Ongoing BS off. Onward to serious discussion about TWD
The people on this panel are not scared. They are taking real steps adding to a progressive change from the way things are. CAMH has issued a clear position in support of an end to prohibition and a fully regulated system, which the harper cons brushed off with political ideology about kids accessing drugs. Dr. Ware has dedicated at least the next decade of his working life to scientific research on cannbis which could put an end to health canadas arguement of no clinical evidence of medicinal value. They should be applauded. This is where Tweeds investors are putting their efforts to. You on the other hand ... well, you can define your position yourself.
when health canada finds mold , the entire harvest is issued a recall. The patient is made aware and the Lp is put in check. The patient can choose another provider knowing there are checks and balances in place. Can you give one instance of a CC or dispensary recall? or it was all " up in smoke " before anyone noticed?
you know this quote was said in sarcasm, right? These people are discussing hpw to put an end to wastful and arbitrary prohibition. or did you miss that?
research requires regulation. scentific method is to control the variables
where then do you beleive the product was going? And if MMar has nothing to do with this, then only the cannabis culture is being suckered into moldy trailer trash. So who then is winning without a regulated supply chain?
Is it time to Legalize Marijuana?
Im re-posting this Link because this is a public forum debate with Dr. Marc Ware, who is the leader of the new research initiative sponsored by Tweed and two other LP's. A room filled with intelligent and rational thinkers. Very refreshing.
Debating Marijuana Legalization The Canadian Bar Association holds a panel on issues relating to the legalization of Marijuana. Participants on the panel are Rebecca Jesseman (Research & Policy Analyst, Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse), Eugene Oscapella (Department of Criminology, University of Ottawa), Marc Ware (McGill University Health Centre), Ian Culbert (Executive Director, Canadian Public Health Association) (February 22, 2015)
http://www.cpac.ca/en/digital-archives/?search=is%20it%20time%20to%20legalize%20&orderby=relevance
MMAR Moldy Source of "medical" Cannabis
Now Sick Canadians must really be honest with themselves even if the crackpot loud speakers are blaring day and night ridiculous notions disguised as logic. The article at the bottom of this comment was published May 15, 2015 about a discovered grow operation by the police on April 28, 2015.
There are two very important quotes in this article:
1 " The trailer was filled with black mold and water runoff, containing fertilizers and chemicals..."
2. " Similar operations have been reported in British Colombia."
MMAR supply chain is not regulated and exposed to these real hazards. This operation was not designed to produce Medical Cannabis. Its was designed for quick profit. There is no accountability in the MMAR supply chain and this is Criminal if CC's and Dispensaries accept untested, unregulated product and distribute it to... yes.. Sick Canadians
http://www.edmontonsun.com/2015/05/14/edmonton-marijuana-grow-op-uncovered-in-converted-semi-trailer
This is an investor Board. Are you an investor? Or just here to whine and complain. Your opinion is taken every day, but are you Short on. Tweed? How many shares has your broker loaned you. @$2 a to $0 is an "awesome" return! so? is that your position or are you just here to whine and moan?
At the very least, in a democratic society, citizens oporating a business in the private sector must have an equally regulated operating structure. Tweed is being an excellent corporate citizen by following the rules and observing the due process of the courts in as far as regulations go. On an equal level, the Lps win every time because of scale, quality, professionalism and social licence. Town want them there and like how they operate. Mmar acting like al capones wont cut it. Even liquor stores , production and distribution is regulated. they are higher than cannabis if they think
there will be anything but strict
regulations. Even Liberal Vancouver, pot paradise is getting more strict because mmar capones are abusing their social licence.
With over 90 !dispensaries in Vancouver alone! being supplied through "sharing" there is obviously an oversupply. 15 grams a day! for personal use! And are dispensaries are "Sharing" with patients? No currency is ever exchanged? Just walk in and ask them to pay it forward to sick Canadians... And all these Mmar growers are A+ medical grade growers... spending there time and money to grow and " sharing " with dispensaries?
Such disapointing Logic.
Lets be honest. Mmar want legal recreational use. Vote the MP in your area that supports legal regulations. But the cats out the bag. A few ... 70/80 or so bad dispensaries and a fe thousand growers have spoiled the bunch. Reassess the present environment and take a new approach. Lp's are here to stay. they are paying taxes and creating jobs. 90 dispensaries are not. But Id bet the Mmar loves to have nd use their tax paid civil rights Nd services, like the supreme court.
Perhaps the Lp's will supply dispensaries and they will be allowes to stay open. Home growers... well... not sure about that.
Vancouver's pot dispensaries test public tolerance for legalization
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/thecurrent/the-current-for-may-12-2015-1.3070544/vancouver-s-pot-dispensaries-test-public-tolerance-for-legalization-1.3070564
*Correction* -acceccibility with MmPr regulations *
Accountablity suggests "medical" product will have to come from a medical source. which then brings the 80 dispenseries in line with the LP's with wholesale provisions and tens of thousands of patients. I do agree that the accessibility issue is prevalant with Mmar regulations becausesome doctors are fearful. On the other hand some dispensaries today are careless. Tweed takes the lead with this new research initiative.
Plain and simple... the people who got their legal grow liscence over a decade ago got a winfall selling the excess for $2 a gram... or over 100k a year tAx free revenue... are now pissing themselves anticipating a lifestyle change. Thank the individuals who actually followes the rules and are fighting in the courts, cause if they win, so does the other smoke and mirrors industry. The truth is, the Mmar actually increased the accessiblility of Marijuana recreationally and was really good for canabis culture. thats why i think there is such an uproar against the Mmpr. IMO that anger is mis directed. Full legalization and regulation puts cannabis culture where it needs to be Medically and Recreationally. Who cares if they grow and sell or share with buddies. Go ahead. Onward and up to the next level. LP's are the first view of what a national cannabis culture will look like. mmar need to organise minds and pool resources to meet the needs, because status quo is changing, wether acknowledged or not.
Obviously. Just ignore the fact you and Bob hv been worshiping him for several weeks in your pro cc anti lp campaign. Remo is Pro Grow and he recognises proffessional grow platforms. Are you hurt because this is another non fact in your arguement that lp's somehow cant grow aaa+ product because Remo can...well guess what. They both can. And so can you. No ones bumming on your grow platform except the Harper Cons and HC. Take yoyr quarrel there. In the mean time, cant we all just get along?
ur butt hurt? thats funny
Hypothesis : Tweed + Indoor Growers Airoponics platform + Remo nutrients = higher yeilds, higher margins, better product?
Christopher ?@bojesus 5h5 hours ago
I just got my first order of Mayberry (Strawberry Cough) from @TweedInc.
Quality is on point, as expected. I love this strain!
pathetic
Jennifer @LovesDucky · May 1
So not only did my order come in the very next day, the AK-47 is exquisite fluffy-crystal goodness! #Keep up the amazing product! @TweedInc
Thank You For Your Service DrivePact.
Toronto Former Police Chief, Now Liberal Party Candidate
Legalization is the way forward
http://go4twenty.com/toronto-bill-blair-i-think-legalization-is-the-way-forward-video/
The conservative party is deaf to voters... when will People say enough is enough
Bonno erased that irrationality pretty quick. Nice to see hes coming around..
but no...
wait for it...wait for it...
The same months old stale arguments copied and pasted to the top of the board to be get attention
"Black market guy has 200 Indica plants in his garage. " - Bonno
I thought you were advocating for Medicine...? Not Garage Hobby Grow? I don't get it. Tweed is building from the ground up a state of the art facility. One minute your trumping storefronts, then gardens and now garages and basements. Obviously your goal is deregulation. But you have to remember the climate is no where near that. Its prohibition. And Tweed and the LP's are not fighting deregulation. They are simply working within the framework to provide a need. When Insurance Companies and Health Canada Finally recognize Cannabis as the medicine it is, then everybody wins because it will be more accessible to all. Feel free to continue to buy your Garage Bud man. Your free to do so, legally or illegally. Just don't get the bashing. Its like Drivepact asked you, can your CC's send VAC a receipt? Cause with Tweeds Compassion pricing and a veterans PTSD or blown off Limbs, He'd rather $6 Delivered. and Guess who is happy with the product...?The consumer. And Guess whose opinion there not asking for...?Yours. Notice There aren't 50 exclamation points or question marks.
I'm wondering if being grown in a strict controlled medical environment, identified and tested, properly labeled and packaged and appropriately priced for consumers doesn't make it Medical Grade enough for the Nay Sayers... Please do tell what does?
one is gmp securities, not sure who the other is yet. i tried contacting those listed on the web page to no avail. excuse the format. quick cut and paste
see link here
http://personal.crocodoc.com/0H5aWQR
Tweed Marijuana Inc.1,7
TWD-TSXV
November 3, 2014
Equity Research
BUY
C$1.80
C$3.50
Last:
Target:
Initiating coverage: Tweed beginning to flower
Tweed is one of a handful of Canadian companies growing, harvesting and
selling medical marijuana under Health Canada’s Marihuana for Medical
Purposes Regulations. This new program from Health Canada took effect on
April 1, 2014 and eased the requirements to access medical marijuana.
Rating
Target
Revenue 2014E (mm)
Revenue 2015E (mm)
Revenue 2016E (mm)
EPS f.d. 2014E
EPS f.d. 2015E
EPS f.d. 2016E
BUY
$3.50
$1.7
$24.5
$37.2
($0.84)
$0.18
$0.29
Share Data
Share o/s (mm, basic/f.d.)
52-week high/low
Market cap (mm)
EV (mm)
Net debt (mm)
Dividend
Dividend yield
Projected return
39.9 / 42.7
4.75 / 1.77
$71.9
$64.6
($12.2)
n/a
n/a
94.4%
Financial Data
FYE Dec. 31
2014E
2015E
Revenue (mm)
$1.7
$24.5
EBITDA (mm)
($4.0)
$10.5
EV/EBITDA
nmf
6.5x
EPS (f.d.)
($0.84)
$0.18
P/E
nmf
9.7x
CFPS
($0.29)
$0.21
P/CF
nmf
8.4x
Net debt (mm)
($4.7)
($8.3)
BVPS
$0.69
$0.73
P/BV
2.6x
2.5x
All figures in C$ unless otherwise noted
2016E
$37.2
$19.2
3.0x
$0.29
6.2x
$0.31
5.8x
($18.9)
$1.03
1.7x
These new rules are expected to dramatically transform the industry and
lead to significant growth in the consumption of medical marijuana over the
next 10 years, potentially exceeding 25% per annum in the near-to-medium
term. Tweed, with its considerable earnings power potential, is an excellent
opportunity for investors to get exposure to this rapidly growing industry.
Our positive outlook on Tweed is based on the following:
? Appealing risk-reward profile. Our target price represents a potential
return of +94% and we believe the medium-term upside could be
greater as Tweed executes on its growth plans. Tweed shares are
currently trading near their lows since being public as investors seem to
have priced in significant execution risks. Hence a valuation of ~3x our
forward 2016E EBITDA and 6x our forward 2016E earnings provides
investors with an attractive entry point.
? Early mover advantage. Tweed offers investors one of the best and
highest quality exposures to the medical marijuana industry. The
company’s near-term production profile is much larger than other
publicly traded peers and its brand awareness and media coverage has
been impressive - an important consideration in view of the advertising
restrictions Licensed Producers face.
? Attractive industry dynamics. We believe that the Canadian government
has created a healthy industry structure by heavily regulating the supply
of medical marijuana thereby creating high barriers to entry and sticky
patient relationships. Tweed, which has the potential to be the largest
producer in the industry, should be a main beneficiary of this favorable
environment.
We are initiating coverage of Tweed with a BUY rating and a $3.50 target
price. Our target price is derived from the average of a 12x multiple on our
2016 EPS estimates, a 7x EBITDA multiple on our 2016 estimates and a DCF
calculation.
Martin Landry, CPA, CA
mlandry@gmpsecurities.com
Joshua Bridges
jbridges@gmpsecurities.com
See important disclosures on the last two pages of this repor
Q5/Q4 Year end? in keeping with the pattern, numbers may be in mid to late may? Unless there is a hicup due to the matching of year end with tweed farms. Can anyone help expound on this
No Man, Thats a typo! these guys are giving away this stuff for FReEEEE , all the time... Foreverrrr to sick Canadians. I mean even when they do sell a gram of pure for $200 or shake for $2 a gram, its just because they absolutely must accept the money that sick Canadians insist they take for their heroic work, not for profits... no no no