The Mine That Bird of OTC traders.. also the greatest trader you've never heard of.
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I'm going to hold JPCI through the entire process and see where it goes. Looks like it could be something really special, and at the very least get me back to 100%, though it could take many many months to fully play.
Hopefully this one will surprise, and be one of those stocks for both of us in the future, and bring me from 100% to 10,000%. Ok ok, 5000% would be ok too lol
250 million authorized, 90-100 million outstanding, float anywhere from 60 to 80 million I'd guess, though could be more or less then that depending on insider holding. Estimated 2008 revenue of 66 million, and est. 165 million is 2009. If those numbers and growth rates are correct then revenue forecast easily supports market cap at current levels with the post merger OS.
What is going on here!!!!!!!!!!
There must be shorts appearing now lol, ATTENTION, there is NO FORWARD SPLIT! The share structure of the future company is explained in plain English in the 8k filing.
Absolutely, and it's so much more to their own benefit that even if it takes a little longer and costs a bit more initially, it makes no sense to do it any other way.
When JPCI was at the highs today I was a full 25% recovered from my previous stock disaster LOL. Watching the chart I'm starting to feel like the Mummy from said film, where he was slowly getting his hand back, then his arm, etc... LOL
Ya know, even though Mr. Meuse probably has more money then I do .....LOL
I was thinking, which is an LOL in an of itself, but it really would be so much more to his own benefit if he started doing shell deals like JPCI, rather then some of the recent ones I won't mention. Say we do a 1 for 5 or 6 reverse split, which reduces his ownership to around 8 or 10 million shares, but he finds a real, established, growing company with incredible potential for growth, and he simply passes this shell on to the new company with a nice percentage of ownership in said new company for himself. With his knowledge and skills, he could make tens of millions of dollars in each of these shells, rather then dumping them off to anyone and everyone for 100k each. The only thing he'd have to do is probably get the paperwork in order and bring some of these to reporting status again, but it would be worth it long term if he had the companies to merge with. Plus it looks a lot better merging with real, successful companies, an if you do good, good comes back to you sort of thing. I would be ok with no reverse split as well as long as this gets up to the .85 cent range. lol Keeping the forum alive here! lol
If they were doing an 8 for 1 forward split they would have announced it in the 8k with the merger agreement.
They are doing a 1 for 2 reverse split to reduce the percentage of ownership of current JPCI insiders to an agreed upon level in the new company I believe, then they will issue the new shares to merge with Componus. Let's please not bug these people when they are doing this and simply be thankful for the quality of this merger. lol
Welcome & Good luck!
O/S poster merger will be in the 90 to 100 million range I think, the 80 or so million they will be issuing to merge with Componus, plus 1/2 of the current o/s. Keep in mind the company will also be going from est. revenue of 900k in the old JPCI, to if accurate, an est. 2008 revenue of 66 million and growing with Componus.
No idea what the float will be, depends on how many shares the Componus insiders have.
Congratulations and yes I think this was about as good a result as one could hope for when investing in a shell. The Metal Forging and production business is actually a multi billion dollar industry with great potential, and with their factories located in China, Korea, and Taiwan, in my opinion it's like owning a piece of the Asian industrial boom to boot. Good luck to everyone here, it's going to be an interesting and hopefully prosperous ride.
I agree about both Nakayama and the potential of JPCI, though looking back at some others I am reminded it can be a process that involves many up and down days, and can take weeks, months, and sometimes a year or more to fully play out.
You also can never rule out some unexpected event when determining value. With some of the past shells that really took off after a merger, the new company had a couple of surprises up their sleeve to compliment their first few months on the market. No idea what will happen with JPCI but it's nice to dream anyway. lol
I will probably do that a little as the price climbs, when it gets to be like a deal or no deal type scenario, but I'd like to hold as much as possible for as long as possible if this is something special. It does have that feel to it.
LOL I've thought about that scenario a lot. I should be so rich right now, I obviously can pick em, it's my timing that needs a little work. :p
Not everyone :p ....but
I have a painful history with stocks, sold 2000 shares of Apple @ 3.50, before it split and went to 190 LOL, then I bought 9000 shares of ARIA @ 2, sold at 4, then a couple of months later they announced a deal with Aventes and it ran to over 15, then I got frustrated, put everything into POCI or as I call it now POS I, bought at 2.00, it ran to 6.99..... but having visions of what happened with ARIA I didn't sell, and two weeks later they had a crazy share offering and dilution resulting in a collapse to .40 cents. Needless to say JPCI is sending me on the road to recovery now 4 years later, but I don't want to be a bagholder on either end, so any advice when the time is right would be appreciated.
P.S. & I didn't even mention the delisted shell I'm named after. LOL
I imagine they'll probably change the name and ticker symbol at the same time they do the split?
If this ever traded in proportion to that Homeland security one in terms of revenue vs. market cap we'd be millionaires. LOL
One other thing I've been wondering is float, it might not be as much as the post merger outstanding shares, sometimes it's much smaller depending on how many shares will be owned by insiders when the merger is complete. Lower float would also be good. You have the unknowns of any unexpected news with a real company vs. a shell as well. It's an exciting time that's for sure.
Definitely, after this runs it's course, other then two Meuse pink sheets I currently hold, any future shell investments will definitely be fully reporting OTCBB stocks like this one. Really seems to make a difference in the quality of the merger. What I've seen on the Pink sheets vs. this is like the difference between a rusted go cart with a 13hp engine and a new Toyota 4 runner or Jeep or something. lol
It's ok, I enjoy your posts when you sometimes suggest etrade may be "watching" the board. haha
I usually go by outstanding shares, revenue, and growth when trying to figure out potential value, but that doesn't always work. Look at hsyn, that has 100k revenue vs. if accurate, Componus's est 66 million projection for 2008, has over triple the number of outstanding shares vs. what would be a post merger Componus, and it is trading in the .30 cent range.
ckxe is another example, about 90 to 100 million outstanding shares, 200 million in revenue, Componus's 2009 forecast is 166 million, and it is a $9 a share stock.
On the other hand you have a company like tnro, 400 million earnings, 60 million shares outstanding, and it is trading at a market cap of about 1/4 of it's sales revenue, though it had traded much higher months ago when it had it's run.
It's tough I guess to have a formula that is 100% because stocks always include the human factor, though if this were to trade based on 2008 revenue and 2009 growth forecast, and those numbers are accurate, then yes this does look very good in my opinion.
I was actually going to say the forum was basically one guy talking to himself for about 2 years when I joined LOL. Hope this past week has made you feel as good as it's made me feel!
I can't believe all the new people and boardmarks here today. This place was like two boardmarks and one other person when I first came here last year lol. If this is any indication it's going to be an interesting next few weeks.
I hope so, it's been a while since I've heard the words "stock" and "good" related to anything I own in the same sentence. It's a great feeling! lol
They are issuing 80 or so million additional shares after the split to match the structure of the forging company they are merging with. According to Componus's Asia Forging website, their projected sales revenue for 2008 is around 66 million USD, and 165 million for 2009. If those sales and growth rate projections are the real deal, then that would leave plenty of room for share price and market cap increase even with the additional outstanding shares being added as a result of the merger. My opinion anyway
Hope you have it now then! lol
It struck me right now that this company's business is basically right at the heart of the current Chinese and Asian industrial production boom. Not bad at all.....
I could handle an AZTC 1 for 5 or maybe 1 for 6 reverse split.....
as long as Meuse follows the JPCI example, and actually mergers this shell with a real company with real infrastructure and assets, so it has the potential to end up at 1 to 2, maybe even 3 dollars a share after the split and merger. Being a non reporting pink sheet sort of makes it harder, but you never know. I think if they have certain things in order even non reporting pinks can get back to reporting status on a better exchange after a merger.
I bought last year actually lol, I invest in shells like this, put them away and hope they someday merge with reputable companies, I feel very good about this one.
It's all about valuing the company:
If taking into account the r/s, Componus sales revenue, and added float, then if sales revenue reflects the 2006 or 2007 numbers, .45 cents, or around a 45 million market cap would probably exactly = to their 2007 sales revenue. That would be the current price of .22 to .26 cents pre split and merger. Many stocks though trade at 4 to 6 times their actual or even future earnings, that would put fair value of jpci based on actual earning, in the .50 cent to even $1.00 range pre split and merger, and $1 to $2 range post split and merger.
If you base the potential market cap on 2008 and 2009 projections if accurate, or 66 million and 165 million respectively, then the fair value for jpci currently, at say a market cap of 2 to 5 times actual earnings, is even higher then that. If this ever were to break $2 this week, pre split and merger, then their revenue is probably in the mid 2008 to early 2009 projection range in my opinion. Overall it's been a pretty orderly rise in price since the announcement, quite impressive I think.
Yup absolutely, but sometimes with a stock with as low a float as this, in a situation like this, the chart can go way above logical value during this process. If that were to happen, say day traders and momentum traders arrive, I'd like to sell with as many shares as possible at the absolute peak, who wouldn't. lol
If not and I have to wait it out, then I absolutely agree with your opinion on the quality of the merger long term. The current owners of JPCI aren't fools I imagine, they aren't going to merge with a business for basically free, and completely turn over the shell that they have a personal interest in unless they thought Componus was something good. I only wish I knew the current sales revenue vs. their projections. The last solid number of 30 million or so two years ago is a huge difference from the 66 million forecast for 2008, and 165 million for 2009. If they are closer to the 2008 and 2009 numbers then 2006, this could potentially go further in price much sooner in this merger process in my opinion. I know two years ago they were only talking about building the Detroit International Auto Salon on their Asia Forging site, and look at it now, so a lot can change in two years.
Main thing I am trying to figure out now is the post merger, or even pre merger potential price. I would still like to sell before the split, but won't consider unless this gets into the mid dollar range.
Now the question is, if the 2008 projections are correct, and this company's value is say 65 million (rather then 2 billion LOL) ..... would a say 250 million market cap be too much for a 60 million company? Some stocks trade about the same market cap or even below vs earnings, others trade millions above their earnings revenue. (Example, the sports entertainment miracle shell ckxe: 90 or so million shares, 250 million earnings, 800 million market cap) ..... so is this a .25 cent stock or a 2 to 4 dollar stock? Guess we'll soon find out! :p
I try lol
That is Cliff Nakayama. He ran the Asia Forging operation until 2006, and apparently turned it around. He is also a former VP of BEA systems if I read his bio right, and will be a member of the board for the new public company. The actual founder of Componus / Asia Forging and the CEO of the company is an Eric Huang.
http://componusinc.com/2.html
No wonder today was so frustrating, I was figuring the price based on 600 million us dollars in revenue! LOL No wonder it's not 5 dollars a share right now! Still here is a link with projections for 2006-2009 http://web.asiaforging.com/images/AFS_Introduction.pdf
Their 2006 actual numbers were a bit better then forecast, if their 2007 numbers were accurate and 2008 and 2009 projections hold then the vale of the company may be: 2008, 66 million and 2009, 165 to 200 million in sales. These are only projections though.
I think it means "Lawyer talk" lol
I am running low on my free post limit for today lol, yes that was a relief as well. From todays action I'm thinking I'm going to be in this through the entire process, and maybe beyond that if some of what I've seen related to Asia Forging's revenue and assets is the real deal.
Ah, I thought maybe that was going to be the new name on the otcbb or wherever. I keep thinking with Asia Forging's revenue, and if market cap usually is about the same as revenue, who knows where this could trade eventually.
Agree 1000% on the fully reporting otcbb shell, the quality of this merger, being that it's a real company with actual infrastructure and revenue vs. some of the pink sheet stuff I've seen is a huge relief. In a perfect world there would be no reverse split, but 2 for 1 is a heck of a lot better then the 1000 for 1 or worse crap they pull on the pinks as well.
I found this on smart money when I googled componus:
http://www.smartmoney.com/eqsnaps/?story=snapshot&symbol=CPNU
Our future trading symbol perhaps?
The Asia Forging subsidiary really has me excited about this. The Detroit International Auto Salon building is pretty snazzy as well. :p
Good luck, I was really hoping by some miracle to be able to sell in the dollars range before a reverse split, but I will hold through the whole merger process if need be. Again good luck.
I don't understand the current price in relation to Asia Forging's listed revenue, even with the additional 80 million shares and reverse split taken into consideration, current price doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe people are being cautious until the merger is actually completed or something.
That's safe to say lol, not bad to have a company in the hot Asian market right now though, this could be an interesting few weeks.
Yes this is what has me really excited, did you see the sales revenue they have listed on that site! From my understanding that subsidiary is both a manufacturer and supplier, which if correct is great news in my opinion.
If that revenue is correct, and those factories on that site are actually owned by Componus, then wow. Now, If only this merger were happening in march of 2000 lol.
Will probably be .06 ask tomorrow lol
I am actually praying for $2 on this news before reverse split. 2$, then I can get more aztc and gtll and some otcbb shells. lol
Did I mention I once had 2000 shares of apple @ 3 bucks and sold after holding it for two days, then it split and went to 190 a share ROFL.
I'm going to puke. Hey Mr. Meuse, if JPCI fails me you & AZTC are my only hope. LOL