The Mine That Bird of OTC traders.. also the greatest trader you've never heard of.
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LOL I've thought about that scenario a lot. I should be so rich right now, I obviously can pick em, it's my timing that needs a little work. :p
Not everyone :p ....but
I have a painful history with stocks, sold 2000 shares of Apple @ 3.50, before it split and went to 190 LOL, then I bought 9000 shares of ARIA @ 2, sold at 4, then a couple of months later they announced a deal with Aventes and it ran to over 15, then I got frustrated, put everything into POCI or as I call it now POS I, bought at 2.00, it ran to 6.99..... but having visions of what happened with ARIA I didn't sell, and two weeks later they had a crazy share offering and dilution resulting in a collapse to .40 cents. Needless to say JPCI is sending me on the road to recovery now 4 years later, but I don't want to be a bagholder on either end, so any advice when the time is right would be appreciated.
P.S. & I didn't even mention the delisted shell I'm named after. LOL
I imagine they'll probably change the name and ticker symbol at the same time they do the split?
If this ever traded in proportion to that Homeland security one in terms of revenue vs. market cap we'd be millionaires. LOL
One other thing I've been wondering is float, it might not be as much as the post merger outstanding shares, sometimes it's much smaller depending on how many shares will be owned by insiders when the merger is complete. Lower float would also be good. You have the unknowns of any unexpected news with a real company vs. a shell as well. It's an exciting time that's for sure.
Definitely, after this runs it's course, other then two Meuse pink sheets I currently hold, any future shell investments will definitely be fully reporting OTCBB stocks like this one. Really seems to make a difference in the quality of the merger. What I've seen on the Pink sheets vs. this is like the difference between a rusted go cart with a 13hp engine and a new Toyota 4 runner or Jeep or something. lol
It's ok, I enjoy your posts when you sometimes suggest etrade may be "watching" the board. haha
I usually go by outstanding shares, revenue, and growth when trying to figure out potential value, but that doesn't always work. Look at hsyn, that has 100k revenue vs. if accurate, Componus's est 66 million projection for 2008, has over triple the number of outstanding shares vs. what would be a post merger Componus, and it is trading in the .30 cent range.
ckxe is another example, about 90 to 100 million outstanding shares, 200 million in revenue, Componus's 2009 forecast is 166 million, and it is a $9 a share stock.
On the other hand you have a company like tnro, 400 million earnings, 60 million shares outstanding, and it is trading at a market cap of about 1/4 of it's sales revenue, though it had traded much higher months ago when it had it's run.
It's tough I guess to have a formula that is 100% because stocks always include the human factor, though if this were to trade based on 2008 revenue and 2009 growth forecast, and those numbers are accurate, then yes this does look very good in my opinion.
I was actually going to say the forum was basically one guy talking to himself for about 2 years when I joined LOL. Hope this past week has made you feel as good as it's made me feel!
I can't believe all the new people and boardmarks here today. This place was like two boardmarks and one other person when I first came here last year lol. If this is any indication it's going to be an interesting next few weeks.
I hope so, it's been a while since I've heard the words "stock" and "good" related to anything I own in the same sentence. It's a great feeling! lol
They are issuing 80 or so million additional shares after the split to match the structure of the forging company they are merging with. According to Componus's Asia Forging website, their projected sales revenue for 2008 is around 66 million USD, and 165 million for 2009. If those sales and growth rate projections are the real deal, then that would leave plenty of room for share price and market cap increase even with the additional outstanding shares being added as a result of the merger. My opinion anyway
Hope you have it now then! lol
It struck me right now that this company's business is basically right at the heart of the current Chinese and Asian industrial production boom. Not bad at all.....
I could handle an AZTC 1 for 5 or maybe 1 for 6 reverse split.....
as long as Meuse follows the JPCI example, and actually mergers this shell with a real company with real infrastructure and assets, so it has the potential to end up at 1 to 2, maybe even 3 dollars a share after the split and merger. Being a non reporting pink sheet sort of makes it harder, but you never know. I think if they have certain things in order even non reporting pinks can get back to reporting status on a better exchange after a merger.
I bought last year actually lol, I invest in shells like this, put them away and hope they someday merge with reputable companies, I feel very good about this one.
It's all about valuing the company:
If taking into account the r/s, Componus sales revenue, and added float, then if sales revenue reflects the 2006 or 2007 numbers, .45 cents, or around a 45 million market cap would probably exactly = to their 2007 sales revenue. That would be the current price of .22 to .26 cents pre split and merger. Many stocks though trade at 4 to 6 times their actual or even future earnings, that would put fair value of jpci based on actual earning, in the .50 cent to even $1.00 range pre split and merger, and $1 to $2 range post split and merger.
If you base the potential market cap on 2008 and 2009 projections if accurate, or 66 million and 165 million respectively, then the fair value for jpci currently, at say a market cap of 2 to 5 times actual earnings, is even higher then that. If this ever were to break $2 this week, pre split and merger, then their revenue is probably in the mid 2008 to early 2009 projection range in my opinion. Overall it's been a pretty orderly rise in price since the announcement, quite impressive I think.
Yup absolutely, but sometimes with a stock with as low a float as this, in a situation like this, the chart can go way above logical value during this process. If that were to happen, say day traders and momentum traders arrive, I'd like to sell with as many shares as possible at the absolute peak, who wouldn't. lol
If not and I have to wait it out, then I absolutely agree with your opinion on the quality of the merger long term. The current owners of JPCI aren't fools I imagine, they aren't going to merge with a business for basically free, and completely turn over the shell that they have a personal interest in unless they thought Componus was something good. I only wish I knew the current sales revenue vs. their projections. The last solid number of 30 million or so two years ago is a huge difference from the 66 million forecast for 2008, and 165 million for 2009. If they are closer to the 2008 and 2009 numbers then 2006, this could potentially go further in price much sooner in this merger process in my opinion. I know two years ago they were only talking about building the Detroit International Auto Salon on their Asia Forging site, and look at it now, so a lot can change in two years.
Main thing I am trying to figure out now is the post merger, or even pre merger potential price. I would still like to sell before the split, but won't consider unless this gets into the mid dollar range.
Now the question is, if the 2008 projections are correct, and this company's value is say 65 million (rather then 2 billion LOL) ..... would a say 250 million market cap be too much for a 60 million company? Some stocks trade about the same market cap or even below vs earnings, others trade millions above their earnings revenue. (Example, the sports entertainment miracle shell ckxe: 90 or so million shares, 250 million earnings, 800 million market cap) ..... so is this a .25 cent stock or a 2 to 4 dollar stock? Guess we'll soon find out! :p
I try lol
That is Cliff Nakayama. He ran the Asia Forging operation until 2006, and apparently turned it around. He is also a former VP of BEA systems if I read his bio right, and will be a member of the board for the new public company. The actual founder of Componus / Asia Forging and the CEO of the company is an Eric Huang.
http://componusinc.com/2.html
No wonder today was so frustrating, I was figuring the price based on 600 million us dollars in revenue! LOL No wonder it's not 5 dollars a share right now! Still here is a link with projections for 2006-2009 http://web.asiaforging.com/images/AFS_Introduction.pdf
Their 2006 actual numbers were a bit better then forecast, if their 2007 numbers were accurate and 2008 and 2009 projections hold then the vale of the company may be: 2008, 66 million and 2009, 165 to 200 million in sales. These are only projections though.
I think it means "Lawyer talk" lol
I am running low on my free post limit for today lol, yes that was a relief as well. From todays action I'm thinking I'm going to be in this through the entire process, and maybe beyond that if some of what I've seen related to Asia Forging's revenue and assets is the real deal.
Ah, I thought maybe that was going to be the new name on the otcbb or wherever. I keep thinking with Asia Forging's revenue, and if market cap usually is about the same as revenue, who knows where this could trade eventually.
Agree 1000% on the fully reporting otcbb shell, the quality of this merger, being that it's a real company with actual infrastructure and revenue vs. some of the pink sheet stuff I've seen is a huge relief. In a perfect world there would be no reverse split, but 2 for 1 is a heck of a lot better then the 1000 for 1 or worse crap they pull on the pinks as well.
I found this on smart money when I googled componus:
http://www.smartmoney.com/eqsnaps/?story=snapshot&symbol=CPNU
Our future trading symbol perhaps?
The Asia Forging subsidiary really has me excited about this. The Detroit International Auto Salon building is pretty snazzy as well. :p
Good luck, I was really hoping by some miracle to be able to sell in the dollars range before a reverse split, but I will hold through the whole merger process if need be. Again good luck.
I don't understand the current price in relation to Asia Forging's listed revenue, even with the additional 80 million shares and reverse split taken into consideration, current price doesn't make any sense to me. Maybe people are being cautious until the merger is actually completed or something.
That's safe to say lol, not bad to have a company in the hot Asian market right now though, this could be an interesting few weeks.
Yes this is what has me really excited, did you see the sales revenue they have listed on that site! From my understanding that subsidiary is both a manufacturer and supplier, which if correct is great news in my opinion.
If that revenue is correct, and those factories on that site are actually owned by Componus, then wow. Now, If only this merger were happening in march of 2000 lol.
Will probably be .06 ask tomorrow lol
I am actually praying for $2 on this news before reverse split. 2$, then I can get more aztc and gtll and some otcbb shells. lol
Did I mention I once had 2000 shares of apple @ 3 bucks and sold after holding it for two days, then it split and went to 190 a share ROFL.
I'm going to puke. Hey Mr. Meuse, if JPCI fails me you & AZTC are my only hope. LOL
Happy Easter too all!
From what I can find via google, Componus is a managerial contractor, supplier, and or manufacturer? of automotive and other industrial supply parts with locations in China, Korea, and Taiwan. They also have a nice building in Detroit called the Detroit Auto Salon or something like that. Definitely am wondering what will happen tomorrow, have no idea what this will do, if anything, but in my opinion, this merger looks a bit better then some of the pink sheet mergers I've seen lately. At least it's a real company for one thing. lol
Hey guys, JPCI went this weekend, looks like float will increase to 80 million from 6, and there will be a 1 for 2 reverse split, but it is merging with an established manufacturing company with factories in China and Taiwan. I don't know if it will even trade in its current form on Monday, but if it gets to about 5 pre split, or 8 dollars post merger I'll be 100% back from a previous stock disaster LOL. Then I'll be able to really get to work on shell accumulation! Probably buy some more AZTC too for the heck of it if things work out.
I'm probably dreaming regarding JPCI potential stock price but who knows lol
Ok so now what happens on Monday? Will it still trade with the 6 million share float until the merger and reverse split is finalized? Will it trade at all? Any chance this will go into the dollars on this?
I would really love for this to go to about 5 dollars on Monday before any reverse split. LOL Looks like float will go to 80 million after that, but it is an established company with factories in China and Taiwan.
Alright guys, I'm feeling a bit uneasy now....
Did you all see what happened with the Beverage Creations Merger?!!!!! That is as bad as what happened with that other one I won't mention! I know Meuse is having Greenspan at his conference which suggests some decent reputability, but with these recent Belmont sales of shells it's really getting disheartening. You'd think Meuse might start to screen potential merger firms a bit more or something?
Can someone please give me some inspiration, name some successful Meuse shell mergers that were legit and didn't involve massive reverse splits, so I at least have some hope going forward. lol :/
Hi GeorgetheGreek,
Unfortunately I don't have the pm feature here, and it really is very long (would take about 6 pages to type out the whole series of events), and very personal, so probably not a place for a public board, but I will say two events in particular were accompanied by something very real and physical, that included pressure and a breathless feeling on my chest, much like you'd get from going downhill on a roller coaster, and then a strong glare, like you'd get from the sun, on the side of my face, but there wasn't any sun around. Then literally within 60 seconds of these two physical events something would happen that was directly related to something I was either discussing with my late friends family, or related to something I had talked or joked about with my friend when he was alive.
These were two of about 6 or seven total events during that two week period, the only two that included an actual physical something, but it was absolutely real and absolutely changed my entire outlook on life. It's been several years since then and nothing like those two weeks has happened since, but for me it answered one of the most fundamental questions we have. I understand there are skeptics, but until or unless you have such an experience it's difficult to explain, it even took me a while to fully comprehend what had happened, but all you have to do is look up at the sky on a clear night to realize there's a lot in this universe and behind our existence we don't have a clue about.
I read about this and wanted to say....
I have never been overly religious or anything, and I believe in science, ect. and really don't want to sound like a loon or anything, but my best friend passed away from similar circumstances in 1997, and two years later an extremely strange series of events happened that left me absolutely convinced there is something after this. I don't talk about it that often, but for those of you who knew Zeev, anyone who put his stock talents out there to help others must have been a pretty good guy, so keep the faith and even if your a skeptic, be open to the possibility there's more to this universe then any of us understand. I know my experience changed my entire outlook on life. Good luck all.
I feel like I have maybe more patience then knowledge right now. lol
At least once, I'd like to wake up one morning, check yahoo finance and BOOM, right there I see a beautiful form 8k, entry into material agreement, on any one of these things, rather then having to get excited about these tenth of cent moves darnit. Is there some type of form 8k dance like a rain dance? lol
Yup, especially the pink sheet shells..... but thanks I could definitely use one of these to work out ASAP! LOL
Definitely, after the last few I have the most expectation with jpci now even though in terms of shares, I only own a fraction of what I have here. I like it the most mainly because it has extremely low float, is on the otcbb as a hybrid shell where current investors interests are considered and a large reverse split is less likely, and it is fully reporting.
Still, the Alan Greenspan pr was an unexpected good thing and you never know, maybe on one of these next ones Meuse will have mercy on those who invest in his shells. LOL It seems like with the past few shell investors are viewed as an annoyance to be dealt with rather then the good, hard working people in need of miracles that many of us actually are! :p I have lowered my best scenario expectations now as well, before I said 4 to 6 dollars on no reverse split, now I'd be happy with .70 cents to 2.00 on no reverse split, and that would still be a miracle. lol