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ORB surge into the close.
Bought ATVI....Stop set at $13.95
>>>Zeev, are you familiar with M-System (FLSH)? They are a small Isreali high tech company. Not suitable for trading but they have excellent technology, disc on chip and disc on key, cash in the bank and are close to profitabiltiy.<<<
Just an opinion. I'm personally fearful of owning any Isreali stocks here. I want to buy TEVA but won't because of the global drama going on. Should the crazy man in Iraq decide to go for broke he will shoot right at Isreali. I also think when and if a war starts Isreali may get hit. Good luck
SMD alert....news hitting
PNRA must hold this $34 area. Watch as short candidate.
RJF has fallen another 2+ points since my alert.
Also, when MSFT reports zoom in on their Xbox sales. If Xbox sales were strong during the 4th quarter of 2002 then you may see ERTS jump up on fri on the news. The same can be said to the downside if Xbox sales are weak.
Zeev, FYI on ERTS...From The Street.com
Electronic Arts May Be Getting Clobbered Unfairly
By Kenneth Li
Senior Writer
01/16/2003 01:07 PM EST
Click here for more stories by Kenneth Li
Shares of video game giant Electronic Arts (ERTS:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) slumped to a 52-week low last week, following a slew of bad news in the sector. But some say the selloff is overdone.
The company's shares have tumbled nearly 35% since late October, as investors fled a sector that just a few months ago was hailed as an oasis in the struggling technology market. Yet a growing number of analysts say Electronic Arts shouldn't have been hammered as hard as the rest of the sector. The publisher of hit games such as The Sims met or beat all its earnings and sales targets last year, while other companies came up short. Electronic Arts also has maintained its aggressive industry growth forecasts for 2003.
Furthermore, recent sales data from major game retailer GameStop (GME:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) showed that software sales during the holiday period grew 22% from a year earlier, even though overall revenue declined 1.6%. The company attributed the software gains to a handful of games, including Electronic Arts' Madden NFL 2003.
"This is the first [software sales] number breakout, and there's still pretty decent sales," said Soundview Technology analyst Shawn Milne last week, regarding GameStop's earnings update. "It's a turning point." Soundview has no investment banking relationship with Electronic Arts.
"After an 11.3% decline [in Electronic Arts shares in mid-December] vs. a 0.3% decline in the S&P, we believe shares of ERTS are oversold and the valuation now appears more compelling," said Lehman Brothers leisure analyst Felicia Rae Kantor in a mid-December report, when EA was trading at $56.70. Shares have sunk another 11% since then and now trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 20 times, which analysts consider the lower end of the historical P/E range of 20 times to 35 times. "In our opinion, ERTS is one of our favorite picks within the interactive entertainment group," said Kantor. Lehman Brothers doesn't have an investment banking relationship with Electronic Arts.
Indeed, uncertainties persist. Much of what led to the current game industry backlash hasn't changed. The tech sector shows scant signs of recovery. And three of the seven publicly traded game publishers, THQ(THQI:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis), Activision (ATVI:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) and Midway (MWY:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis), warned that sales growth in 2003 would be far less than the expected 20% to 25% forecasts.
Investors, therefore, are concerned about whether EA will continue to affirm its 2003 industrywide sales growth projections of 20%, amid the flood of bad news elsewhere. "EA has been the most bullish of the companies on sector growth, and we believe that these projections may have to be lowered," said Goldman Sachs analyst Chris DeBiase, whose bearish calls in October helped fuel the selloff.
Still, some Wall Street analysts say Electronic Arts will rise above the fray. "We expect Electronic Arts ... to meet or beat expectations," said UBS Warburg analyst Michael Wallace. "We believe ERTS had a good holiday season based on strong sales of key titles." UBS Warburg has an investment banking relationship with the company.
Analysts expect the company's earnings to reach $1.58 a share on $1.14 billion in revenue in the third quarter, according to Thomson Financial/First Call. The company said at the end of the second quarter that it expected earnings per share for the third quarter to be between $1.52 and $1.60 on revenue of $1.076 billion to $1.175 billion.
Recent data released after the holiday season suggest that EA will meet or exceed targets. GameStop's holiday figures were particularly surprising because it was the only retailer to break out software from hardware sales, although few investors noticed. Overall revenue was clipped at the retailer by a shorter holiday shopping season, as well as macroeconomic factors, according to the company. Soundview's Milne also noted that hardware sales, which proceeded at a relatively brisk pace, actually weren't fairly reflected because of steep price cuts among the three hardware console makers -- Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo. These factors helped distort the sales news and fanned investors' wariness of the sector.
Also, the selloff of Electronic Arts shares last week, which was based largely on reports of tepid early sales for the highly anticipated Sims Online game, was misguided. Early sales data furnished by tracking firm NPD counted a total of only two days of sales, since the game shipped weeks later than anticipated. Finance chief Warren Jenson later told analysts at a Morgan Stanley conference that the company sold 90,000 units of the game in the first three weeks.
And, discounting the sales report, nervous investors likely forgot that Sims Online revenue makes up only a small fraction of total sales for Electronic Arts. "The numbers for Sims Online are not all that relevant," said UBS Warburg's Wallace. "It's more of a perception thing than a numbers thing."
Another factor that could give game shares in general a boost: Hardware consoles, such as Sony's PlayStation 2 and Microsoft's Xbox, continue to fly out of retailers' doors, according to sales figures from the companies. Sony said it sold 8.5 million units worldwide during the holidays, representing 27% sales growth from the same period in 2001. In North America alone, the PlayStation 2 console sold 4 million units, a 42% jump on a year-on-year basis. To keep up the growth this year, hardware makers are expected to slash game system prices further this May, say analysts. And more hardware sales naturally lead to more software sales. Close to a third of all PlayStation 2 games are published by Electronic Arts.
Analysts now are looking for Electronic Arts to soothe investor concerns by providing details on holiday sales and shedding some light on projections in its third-quarter earnings report on Jan. 30.
>>>Bearmove, funny that almost exactly when you posted the advance / decline phenomenon, we started tanking. Will you be clown short going into IBM and MSFT earnings tonight based on this?
Thanks for the valuable input.<<<
I'm not short IBM nor MSFT. I did short a few other techs on Wed and will continue to hold. Its my opinion that any postive MSFT spin will be over shadowed by the negative global events. Its also my opinion that consumer spending will fall off a cliff for Jan. I would maintain a very defensive posture here.
>>>Bearmove!
Enjoy those picks of yours. Say, maybe the gang here would like to see some of your entry points,as we should be able to take-it from there.I'm sure we would appreciate the input.
Trade well!
Farwtrade.<<<
Gave you a few the past few days. Will continue. I'm new here and just trying the site on a free basis, but I'm now considering paying up. I can only post 18 post per day at this point. I've heard great things about Zeev and hope I can contribute to this fine board. Joe Stocks knows me from AOL. Great guy even if he is a Permabear;)
$NYADV/$NYDEC sell signal
"Please note that this is an extremely rare signal. It has occured only 7 times during the 20th century, each occurence followed by a major bear market. In particular, it has occurred on the following dates:
1) July 22nd, 1929
2) December 14th, 1961
3) January 31st, 1966
4) October 25th, 1968
5) December 12th, 1972
6) April 6th, 1998
7) September 18, 2000
Given how rare this signal is, and that we're already in a major bear market, I do not expect to see this signal trigger again in my life."
http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?act=ST&f=13&t=681&s=ba6ed5703ead80d a57b7910765997109
>>>I'm expecting an afternoon rally into the MSFT and IBM earnings. <<<
And I would sell into it.
PS....RJF in trouble. Short candidate
NTII is breakingout.
MOVI at a day high on a upgrade.
ORB.....Added to my long position. Expecting a move to the $5.60 soon.
INTL.....Here's one reason why Intel, despite narrowly beating profit and revenue projections Tuesday, could have trouble surging far beyond its current $17.65 price shortly: Hopeful option investors have already accumulated more than 100,000 outstanding January 17.50 calls on the chip maker. Because these January calls will expire later this week, some investors will be unwinding those positions over the next three days.
Meanwhile, market makers who buy these about-to-expire calls - often picking them up at a discount - nonetheless have to hedge their exposure, which many do by selling stock. The impact? That massive unwinding could pin the stock close to the $17.50 strike in the immediate term.
Updates....
ORB at a day high. Big blocks going thru and volume is surging big. 30 day average volume is at 233,000.
AAII....Continues higher. Sold and took the cash.
PCLE up 11.6%
CNXT at a day high and up 18.6%
FINL up 7.6% and near a day high.
IKN....Sitting at a day high.
X....Continues higher. Took some off the table.
Posted about IKN on Tues and recommended watching. The stock has move up and is hitting a day high here.
12:20 (Dow Jones) Technical indicators show a critical decision point for the Nasdaq 100, says John Kosar, analyst with Bianco Research. Currently the 200-, 50-, and 20-day moving averages are converging, and when that's happened in the past it preceded a new, sustained directional move. But the question is, which way? To shed further light, Kosar looked at the VXN, a measure of implied volatility for the Nasdaq 100. Past VXN readings below 48 have coincided with Nasdaq tops - and the index is currently around 43.00. "These two factors together suggest a bearish resolution to this index from its current level," he concludes. (KJZ)
"X"......This baby has been on fire. I'm selling 1/2 of my position here. The rest rides.
PCLE continues higher
Insiders...
Buying and Selling By Sector
(Based on actual transaction dates in reports received through Friday)
SECTOR BUYING SELLING
Basic Industries 1,294,694 940,613
Capital Goods 3,023,753 11,700,580
Consumer Durables 146,934 1,850,614
Consumer Non-Durables 1,630,320 7,054,809
Consumer Services 4,934,820 41,816,090
Energy 2,353,346 2,845,972
Finance 3,414,375 23,065,074
Health Care 2,603,531 11,042,957
Miscellaneous 44,700 0
Public Utilities 2,214,788 4,313,308
Technology 2,393,508 59,680,383
Transportation 1,248 4,574,797
B-beneficial owner of more than 10% of a security class. CB-chairman. CEO-chief executive officer. CFO-chief financial officer. CO-chief operating officer. D-director. DO-director and beneficial owner. EC-member of the executive committee. H-officer, director and beneficial owner. I-indirect transaction filed through a trust, insider spouse, minor child or other. O-officer. OT-officer and treasurer. P-president. UT-unknown. VP-vice president. Daily report includes transactions related to stock option exercises.
Source: Thomson Financial
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-14-03 2305ET
ORB....Here comes the $5
>>>CNXT - Bearmove, you sure have been "right on" with your suggestions. Many thanks for sharing your thoughts.<<<
Thanks....just trying to contribute. I'm new here and hope to continue contributing trading ideas and alerts.
ORB may even break thru that $5 mark here. I think defense related stocks are going to start heading up and ORB fits into that group. Just the other day ORB recieved a nice contract.
Orbital Receives $50 Million in Contract Additions for Ground-Based Missile Defense System
- Firm Contract Value from The Boeing Company Now Totals $450 Million -
DULLES, Va., Jan. 10 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Orbital Sciences Corporation (NYSE:ORB) announced today that it has received approximately $50 million in incremental modifications to its contract from The Boeing Company (NYSE:BA) to develop, test and produce interceptor boost vehicles for the U.S. Department of Defense/Missile Defense Agency's (MDA) Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) System. The company stated that its firm contract value has risen to over $450 million since the original contract was awarded in early 2002. The term of the firm contract extends through 2007. In addition to the firm portion of the contract, Orbital has optional orders for production of approximately 50 interceptor boosters estimated at about $535 million. As currently planned, the term of the optional portion of the contract would begin in 2004 and run through the end of 2009. With the additional firm contract value, the total potential value of Orbital's contract now stands at approximately $1 billion.
The additional $50 million scope of work supports a series of nine demonstration and test flights of Orbital's GMD boost vehicle beginning in early 2003. The test flights include participation in seven GMD Integrated Flight Test (IFT) exercises into 2006. The IFT development test program demonstrates the ability of GMD System elements to work together as an integrated system. As designed, MDA's RDT&E testbed complex in Fort Greely, Alaska will expand to enhance overall test infrastructure and system maturation.
"We are pleased with how the GMD boost vehicle program is progressing, which is on a very 'fast track' schedule leading to the first demonstration launch in early 2003," said Mr. Ronald J. Grabe, Orbital's Executive Vice President and General Manager of its Launch Systems Group. "Many key electrical components have completed qualification and acceptance testing, assembly of major subsystems is underway and solid rocket motors have been delivered to our missile assembly facility at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California."
Orbital is one of the world's leading developers and manufacturers of affordable space systems for commercial, civil government and military customers. The company's primary products include low-orbit, geosynchronous and planetary spacecraft for communications, scientific and remote sensing missions; ground- and air-launched rockets that deliver satellites into orbit; and missile defense boosters that are used as target and interceptor vehicles. Orbital also offers space-related technical services to government agencies and develops and builds satellite-based transportation management systems for public transit and public works agencies, as well as private vehicle fleet operators.
Watching this dive in BLUD and may pick up a few shares. Worth watching here.
Please don't copy my postings from AOL. Thank you
CNXT is moving thru its 50day MA. Find the green....
Bought some TMX. Nice move here. See chart.
PCLE is surging up and near a day high.
Bought FINL ...Breaking out thru $11
AG....Picked up some. Hitting a day high as it trys a rebound.
Sold AAIi to take my profits.
AAII continues up....
>>>The fact that futures are up after Intel is bullish for the very short term. This market still looks like it wants to go up. But with VIX down to 26.55, risks are quite high IMHO. My longs are now limited to gold, Japan, and emerging markets. Gold stocks wacked today, but Japan surged and emerging markets did well.
Market not yet overbought enough for me to short, but that could change very soon..<<<
Expect the unexpected..
APCC
American Power said it was recalling the Back-UPS CS uninterruptible power supply line due to potential safety issues that may result in overheating and represent a potential fire hazard. The total number of affected devices being recalled worldwide is about 2.1 million with about 900,000 devices recalled in the United States.
The company has received eight reports worldwide of units overheating, resulting in the melting of the unit's outer casing, six of which occurred in the United States. Three of the reported incidents resulted in minor property damage. No injuries have been reported.
The recall is limited to two specific models in APC's Back-UPS CS product line - the Back-UPS CS 350 and the Back-UPS CS 500, in both 120-volt and 230- volt models. The affected units were manufactured between November 2000 and December 2002. The units were sold primarily through computer and electrical distribution, catalog and retail outlets worldwide.
Company Web site: http:// www.apc.com
-Stephen Lee; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5400
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-14-03 1750ET
intc...
Capital spending for 2003 is expected to be between $3.5
billion and $3.9 billion, as compared to $4.7 billion in 2002. Intel's
semiconductor equipment spending is being primarily targeted at 300-mm
wafer production, which is providing the company with greater capital
efficiency and lower manufacturing costs.
INTC....
Financial Review
-- The average selling price (ASP) of Intel Architecture
microprocessors used in PCs and servers was higher. The ASP including
microprocessors used in embedded applications and the Microsoft* XBox
was approximately flat.
-- The gross margin percentage was 51.6 percent, higher than the
company's updated expectation. The gross margin percentage was higher
than 49 percent in the third quarter of 2002, primarily due to higher
revenue.
-- Amortization of acquisition-related intangibles and costs for
the fourth quarter included a $15 million write-off of acquired
intangibles related to the previous acquisition of Xircom Inc.
-- The tax rate was approximately 27.4 percent in the fourth
quarter excluding the impact of acquisition-related costs and
excluding the $75 million tax benefit related to divestitures of prior
acquisitions.
-- Gains or losses on equity investments and interest and other
resulted in a net loss of $117 million, greater than the previous
expectation of a net loss of $90 million. The net loss on equity
investments was $171 million, including the impact of impairment
charges of approximately $177 million.
Product Shipment Trends (Sequential)
-- Intel Architecture microprocessor unit shipments set a record.
-- Chipset unit shipments were higher.
-- Motherboard unit shipments set a record.
-- Flash memory unit shipments were higher.
-- Ethernet connectivity product unit shipments were higher.
Intel Architecture Business
Intel increased its desktop performance leadership with the introduction of the Intel(R) Pentium(R) 4 processor at 3.06 GHz with Hyper-Threading (HT) Technology. HT Technology allows a variety of multithreaded operating systems and application software to run as though the PC has two processors, boosting performance by as much as 25 percent. The company also extended its leadership in the value segment during the quarter with the introduction of Intel(R) Celeron(R) processors at 2.2 GHz and 2.1 GHz.
In mobile, Intel began revenue shipments of its next-generation mobile processor, previously known as Banias. The company announced the Intel(R) Centrino(TM) brand name, which signifies the company's best technology for notebook computers. Intel Centrino mobile technology is comprised of the next-generation processor along with integrated wireless networking capability, chipsets and features that enable extended battery life, thinner and lighter notebook designs, and outstanding mobile performance. The Intel Centrino mobile technology components are being designed, optimized and validated by Intel to maximize the wireless mobile computing user experience, and are scheduled to be introduced in March.
For the enterprise, Intel introduced 20 Intel(R) Xeon(TM) family-related products, including seven processors at speeds up to 2.8 GHz along with new chipsets, server boards, server chassis and RAID controllers. Software momentum for the Intel(R) Itanium(R) 2 processor continued to build as Oracle and SAS delivered production versions of their enterprise applications. The Itanium 2 processor set additional performance records, achieving the world's highest 4-way results in database, SAP application, and secure Web server benchmarks(2). According to the latest TOP500 supercomputer ranking, 56 of the world's most powerful supercomputing environments are based on Intel processors, as compared to only three systems in the 1999 ranking(3).
Intel Communications Group
Intel announced plans to invest $150 million in companies pursuing WiFi technology in order to help accelerate the worldwide deployment of high-speed wireless networks. The Intel Communications Fund invested in Cometa Networks, a wholesale nationwide wireless Internet access company; STSN, a high-speed wired and wireless Internet access provider for hotels and conference centers; and TeleSym, an IP telephony software company.
In network processing, the company introduced the Intel(R) IXP2850 network processor, which combines high-performance packet processing and robust security features in a single chip. Intel also introduced a new software toolkit based on standards developed by the Network Processing Forum.
In optical networking, the company launched five components for developing 10-Gigabit per second (Gbps) Ethernet and FibreChannel optical transceivers. In networked storage, Intel introduced products that lower the cost of solutions for accessing, managing and protecting data. The company also broadened its support for embedded product developers with an Intel(R) XScale(TM) technology-based processor for temperature-sensitive applications in the telematics, automotive, industrial and telecommunications market segments.
Wireless Communications and Computing Group
In flash, Intel introduced the world's first flash memories that combine multi-level cell technology for greater storage capacity along with 1.8V-only operation for simpler cell phone design. Based on the company's 0.13-micron technology, the new products are available in 64, 128 and 256 Mbit densities, and consume nearly 40 percent less battery power than other low-power flash memory.
For application processing, the company introduced Intel XScale technology-based processors available in a new, stacked-chip package that integrates the processor and flash memory in a single, space-saving package. The company also announced it is producing customer samples of a product code-named Manitoba that integrates computing, communications and memory functions on a single chip. Manitoba is designed to power next-generation cell phones for use on GSM/GPRS wireless networks.
Customer adoption of Intel XScale technology-based processors continued to grow, leading to record unit shipments. Dell Computer introduced a new line of personal digital assistants based on the Intel processors. In addition, eight leading manufacturers of wireless Smart Displays announced new products that function both as flat panel monitors and as portable, wireless appliances for accessing the Internet and other PC-based applications and content.
Technology and Manufacturing Group
Intel opened Fab 11X, the company's second 300-mm manufacturing facility. Fab 11X expands the company's Rio Rancho, N.M. facility with approximately 200,000 square feet of new clean room space, and is scheduled to transition from 0.13-micron production to 90-nanometer production later in the year.
EARNINGS WEBCAST
Intel will hold a public webcast at 2:30 p.m. PST today on the Web site at www.intc.com. A replay of the webcast will be available until Jan. 21 on the Web site and by phone at (719) 457-0820, pass code 735793.
Intel, the world's largest chip maker, is also a leading manufacturer of computer, networking and communications products. Additional information about Intel is available at www.intel.com/pressroom.
Intel, Pentium, Celeron, Centrino, Itanium, Xeon and XScale are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.
*Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others.
(1) Acquisition-related costs consist of one-time write-offs of purchased in-process R&D and amortization of acquisition-related intangibles and costs, which includes write-offs of acquisition-related intangibles. Earnings excluding acquisition-related costs in 2002 also exclude the $75 million tax benefit related to divestitures of prior acquisitions recognized in the fourth quarter of 2002. Intel's definition of earnings excluding acquisition-related costs is not necessarily comparable with how other companies might present this information. Earnings excluding acquisition-related costs are not in accordance with GAAP because GAAP earnings include these costs.
(2) Sources: Transaction Processing Performance Council, SAP, Standard Performance Evaluation Corporation.
(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires
01-14-03 1616ET
3:55 (Dow Jones) A sign of high hopes ahead of Intel's (INTC) earnings report this afternoon: The number of short-term outstanding calls far outweighed the puts as bullish investors placed their bets (or the bears covered their short bets). At $17.64, Intel stock is up 13.3% this month. Its at-the-money January 17.50 calls has 103,844 contracts outstanding Tuesday, about twice the 51,989 January 17.50 puts outstanding. The open interest for the just out-of-the-money January 20 calls is 119,402 contracts, compared with 47,835 contracts for the just out-of-the-money January 15 puts. That's quite a lot of bullish expectations the earnings will have to live up to. (KT)
Everything is up except the transports. The real tell?
IKN....Watching this one for a breakout.
JCOM is surging....
Watching XMSR for a posible breakout thru $3.50. At a day high