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AET continues higher...
MVK continues higher.
QQQ....Covered bought shorts at $25.17...will re-visit
CPJ....This one is a short candidate. It must hold this area or else.
TSM.....Will also zoom in on this one going forward. The real chip recovery will start right here.
TAIPEI (Dow Jones)--Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM), the world's largest contract chipmaker, are trading higher Thursday after the Taiwan government approved in principle the company's China investment plans.
TSMC plans to invest US$898 million in an older-technology, 8-inch chip plant near Shanghai.
"This development is definitely positive for the share price and for the whole market because it shows the (Taiwan) government is not opposed to comanies investing in China," said George Wu, chip analyst at Primasia Securities in Taipei.
At 0314 GMT, TSMC was up 4.6% at NT$50 (US$1=NT$34.713) on volume of 42 million shares.
The technology subindex was up 3%, while the main board benchmark index was 2% higher at 5093.66.
Wu said the chipmaker's stock has limited upside, to around NT$50-NT$51, with investors mostly focusing on what TSMC chairman Morris Chang's outlook will be at next week's fourth-quarter shareholders' meeting.
Stock analysts are looking closely for signs of improvement in TSMC's gross margins, which have been dropping due to discounts given to customers during the downturn.
Plans by lawmakers in the Taiwan Solidarity Union, a small but key partner of the ruling party, to protest the Cabinet's decision to back in principle TSMC's plans to invest in China has not hurt TSMC shares so far.
"I don't think it will have any impact," said Wu, adding that "it's a small problem."
The TSU is obliged to protest against the plan since investment in China is against the party's political philosophy and "if they don't protest, they don't have any reason for existing," he said.
The market expected some reaction from the TSU, and had already factored this into the share price.
The call for a protest is likely to be drowned out by louder voices in favour of China links. Although many Taiwanese have watched in dismay as factories close shop on the island and move to China where costs are lower, others see the value of using mainland China as a lucrative production base and market, with higher value- added work done in Taiwan.
I will now be watching this one. I like their report. I'll wait for a pullback.
NETSCREEN TECHNOLOGIES (NSCN)
Raised its fiscal 2003 revenue projection and posted
first-quarter earnings of 13 cents, excluding items,
which were well above the Thomson First Call analyst
estimate of 7 cents a share.
QQQ....Added to my short at $25.41
WEBX....I think this one may make a nice short term long with a stop at $12.
Well, if you bought pre market you're now trying to get out of Dodge. That was fast.
PPD short candidate....
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The New York Attorney General's Office and the SEC are looking into the business practices and the stock market activity of Pre-Paid Legal Services (PPD), The New York Post has learned.
The Post has reported that Attorney General Eliot Spitzer's people were looking into a hedge fund, Gotham Partners, which issued a flattering report on Pre-Paid and posted it online. Investigators are hearing allegations that Pre-Paid may have been in cahoots with Gotham to inflate the price of its stock, the report added.
The Attorney General's Office, the SEC, and Pre-Paid declined comment. But a source close to the investigation confirmed that authorities are looking into how Pre-Paid's stock managed to get up to $30 a share on Gotham's
report. It's selling at around 30% less now that Gotham has sold shares, the Post reported.
What's got investigators' attention was that Gotham reportedly sold a large number of Pre-Paid shares as the stock was climbing, even though its research report indicated a hope that the company's shares would more than double from the $30 level.
Someone familiar with the investigation says subpoenas have gone out and there's a "let's see where it goes" attitude with regard to the results, The New York Post reported in its Thursday editions.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-23-03 0345ET
I rarely get involved during the first 1/2 rookie hour.
MKT, why should I chase when I can take my time setting up shorts? I see two short term dead line dates, Fri going into the weekend and Tues, the Iraq dead ling and Bush speech. During his speech he will most likely finally give the world clear evidence as to why he wants to attack Iraq. Next Wed is going to be an interesting day for the market.
QQQ....Still holding half of my short. Nope, I will not be covering, I'll be adding to it short. Its my opinion that todays rally should be sold into and shorted.
SNDK....Nice report. Lets see what it does Thurs.
QQQ....Covered half at $25.03...I will hold the other half and let it run with the Gods. QQQ needs to hold this area or else...
>>>The economy is stronger than you think. There is a recovery underway and the war in Iraq is now a certainty. Afterall,
the Russians have confirmed it. <g> In addition, it is no longer a relevant factor in the economy as much larger forces are at work here.
But Bearmove I know you are a bear....<VBG><<<
Wrong....I'm not a bear or a bull. I'm a trader. Don't confuse my screen name with my posture.
ATVI....Hell, I may get out even afterall. Starting to run up...
AET breakout
MVK...Needs to break thru $14.
WEBX....
WebEx doesn't see Microsoft's Placeware acquisition having any impact on it business in the near term, according to company spokesman Praful Shah.
WebEx, Shah said, views Microsoft's acquisition as an attempt to compete with IBM's Sametime corporate instant messaging product.
As such, WebEx expects Microsoft's foray into the Web collaboration space to be limited to the software side, as opposed to the multimedia arena where WebEx is a leader.
"In the multimedia space, you need to build a multimedia telecommunications network in order to deliver the communications services to customers, and with Sametime they try to build a software server as part of something you install in-house," Shah explained. The difference between these two businesses is much like the difference between telecom companies Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU) and AT&T Corp. (T) - an analogy Jefferies analyst Peter Martin also made in his Wednesday research note.
One of the customers that WebEx services, for instance, is Microsoft. Some on Wall Street say Microsoft is now likely to pull its business from WebEx.
Though a large customer, Microsoft, which uses WebEx's customer support center, meeting center and event center according to Shah, represents less than 1% of WebEx's total revenue.
Before Microsoft entered the picture, Placeware's product competed against the third largest product in WebEx's portfolio.
"We came into the market much later after Placeware," Shah said. "They had 40% of the market in 1999, and they've been losing 10% to 20% market share a year to WebEx, so it's not like Placeware Technology is much of an issue for WebEx."
-By Michelle Rama, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4046; michelle.rama@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-22-03 1257ET
>>>Hehehe ....you may be in for a surprise. The economy is in real recovery. Semiconductor industry is expected to grow revenues 20% this year. Intel Profits are up more than 100% YOY. Meanwhile, everyone is talking down the recovery.
The war will be over with by mid March according to the Russians and George has already opted for war.<<<
Don't fool yourself, the economy is weak. Consumer debt is at record highs and business spending is on hold because of a lack of demand.
As for war, I don't care what they predict. The truth is no one knows how it will play out.
ATVI....Still long but under water. My stop is at $13.75. I will either sell before the close and take a small loss or I will be stopped out with a small loss. ATVI reports after the bell. I personally prefer not hold thru earnings although I think they may beat their number. If they do beat ERTS may see some upside. Also like THQI...
COH monster move...
>>>Bearmove, do you require a minimum daily volume before you consider a stock? thanks<<<
If I'm building a longer term position I don't mind lower volume. When trading very short term I must have volume.
>>>Anybody think we could see a Telecom rally tomorrow based on QCOM / NOK news? Maybe just my wishful thinking <G><<<
The smart money will sell into any QCOM rally.
Joe, there simply is to many Bulls out there. No growth and a lack of demand. I smell double dip.
>>>Bearmove do you see any virtue in ICPT? thanks.<<<
Looks like volume is slowing which may be positive. Book value is at $16.57......co has $1.77 in cash. Expects to post 2002 earnings of 92 cents to 98 cents a share, below the guidance it provided back in November, when it forecast earnings of $1.11 to $1.15 a share.
Personally I see better opprtunities out there. Since volume is slowing ICPT may be near a bottom.
QQQ....Short at $25.46.....Stop set at $26
WEBX....I think we could be seeing a buying opportunity here.I may buy.
Still to many Bulls out there. Not a good sign.
Investors Intelligence
date bulls bears
01/22 50.0 28.3
01/15 50.0 27.2
01/08 47.8 27.8
01/01 48.3 25.3
12/25 49.4 26.5
12/18 50.6 25.8
12/11 50.5 24.2
12/04 51.1 25 0
11/27 48.3 25.3
11/20 49.4 24.7
http://www.vtoreport.com/sentiment/sentiment.htm
VXGN now in tank mode. Watching
COCO per IBD
Accumulation/Distribution
(Acc/Dis) Rating
D-
COCO looks like its going to say hi to $30 soon.
JDAS in surge mode...
JDA SOFTWARE (JDAS)
Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings were 11 cents a share,
beating the Thomson First Call analyst estimate of 7
cents a share. Net income was 3 cents a share, compared
with net income of 12 cents a share a year earlier.
Upside Surprises
Companies whose quarterly net income (or loss) was better than the mean estimate provided by First Call:
Net Or First Call
(Loss) Mean Estimate
CheckFree CKFR 2Q PF 20c 17c
DeVry DV 2Q Op 21c 20c
DoubleClick DCLK 4Q PF 5c 1c
Echelon Corp ELON 4Q 9c 8c
JDA Software Grp JDAS 4Q Op 11c 7c
Maxtor Corp MXO 4Q Op 15c 12c
Oak Tech OAKT 2Q Op (18c) (23c)
Openwave Sys OPWV 2Q PF (14c) (16c)
Pinnacle Sys PCLE 5Q PF 12c 10c
Pixelworks PXLW 4Q PF 5c 3c
RF Micro Devices RFMD 3Q PF 8 5c
WebMethods WEBM 3Q PF 3c 1c
Downside Surprises
Companies whose quarterly net income didn't meet the First Call mean estimate or companies that reported an unexpected loss or a greater-than-expected loss:
Net Or First Call
(Loss) Mean Estimate
Independence Comm Bk ICBC 4Q 56c 58c
Mellon Fincl MEL 4Q 38c 42c
Precise Software PRSE 4Q PF 7c 8c
On-Target Earnings
Companies whose quarterly net income matched the First Call mean estimate:
Net Or First Call
(Loss) Mean Estimate
Avaya AV 1Q Cont. (9c) (9c)
McKesson Corp. MCK 3Q 46c 46c
Sanmina Hldgs SANM 1Q Cash 1c 1c
Sovereign Banc SOV 4Q 33c 33c
Unisys Corp UIS 4Q 27c 27c
Xilinx Inc XLNX 3Q Op 12c 12c
So Far Today
Upside Surprises 35
Downside Surprises 9
On-Target Earnings 16
Well here we go...ASIA, another China play heading south after hours on earnings.
Looks like they don't like RFMD's numbers. Trading down after hours.
By Kopin Tan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The options market's fear gauge rose to reflect mounting anxiety in the unsettled market as investors mulled not just the prospect of war with Iraq, but also the risk of the U.S. pushing ahead of global opinion and despite the apparent reluctance of some allies.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange's market volatility index, or VIX, increased 2.37 to 31.05 to rise above 30 for the first time since Jan. 2.
Stocks sagged as investors found few reasons to buy, despite data showing strong housing starts in December and better-than-expected earnings reports from companies like Johnson & Johnson and Ford Motor Co. Those who ventured into the options market focused on companies scheduled to report quarterly earnings, using options to hedge their stocks or to position themselves from anticipated stock moves.
American Express Co. saw its puts trade briskly, with some investors buying short-term, defensive puts either as downside insurance for their stock or perhaps to express a bearish view. The financial-services company is scheduled to report quarterly results Jan. 27.
American Express stock most recently was off $1.10 to $35.83 Tuesday afternoon. Trading in its puts outpaced the calls. The February 35 puts traded 9,227 contracts, compared with open interest of 641 contracts, and rose 35 cents to $1.35 at the American Stock Exchange.
Qualcomm's options also traded actively ahead of its earnings report Wednesday. The calls outpaced the puts and investors, perhaps reflecting the hopes of some investors that the wireless technology innovator and chipmaker, having divested their equipment business, is better positioned to improve its profitability. The ratio of outstanding short-term puts to calls in the company also has eased from about 0.71 a month ago to 0.55 Tuesday, according to data from Schaeffers' Investment Research.
Qualcomm stock was ahead 64 cents to $37.44 Tuesday. Its February 37.50 calls traded 3,618 contracts, compared with open interest of 3,314 contracts, and gained 5 cents to $2.10 at the International Securities Exchange. The February 35 puts traded 1,067 contracts, compared with open interest of 6,340 contracts, and slipped 15 cents to $1.25 at the Amex.
Tyco International also will report earnings Wednesday, and investors who have weathered a rollercoaster year of management changes, accounting scandals, and weakness in its electronics business will listen closely to what the company has to say about its year ahead.
Tyco stock was off 83 cents to $17.04 most recently. Its at-the-money February 17.50 calls traded 5,250 contracts, compared with open interest of more than 38,000 contracts, and fell 30 cents to 80 cents at the CBOE. The February 17.50 puts traded 6,042 contracts, compared with open interest of nearly 27,000 contracts, and rose 40 cents to $1.20 at the Philadelphia Stock Exchange.
Meanwhile, Cypress Semiconductors' March 5 puts traded more than 15,000 contracts. From the trading price and the bid and ask spreads, it appears at least one investor was selling these puts to earn income, essentially not expecting the stock to slip below $5 by mid-March or the investor is willing to buy stock at that price.
Cypress stock was ahead 14 cents to $5.58 Tuesday. Its March 5 puts traded 15,106 contracts, compared with open interest of 1,333 contracts, and were at 40 cents at the CBOE.
Elsewhere in the options market:
- Timing is everything, in investing and in advertising, and the Options Industry Council has picked its spot: the OIC on Tuesday launched a television ad campaign to show investors how they can use options to manage their stock portfolios in this dreary and uncertain market.
In one animated spot, a suit rode alone in an elevator going up while others head down to illustrate how options can enhance returns even in a declining market. In another, the chap steps off a downward elevator to symbolize how options can set a floor for slipping stock. The point? To get investors to call for its (888)OPTIONS hotline for the OIC's educational software. The best part? It's all free.
"This campaign drives home the fact that stock options are valuable investment tools, and the serious investors owe it to themselves to learn about them," said OIC President Paul Stevens. The campaign was produced by Chicago's Creative Alliance and will run through the year on channels like CNBC and Bloomberg Television.
- Kopin Tan, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2202
kopin.tan@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-21-03 1531ET
MCD....Sold out?
By Igor Greenwald
Of SMARTMONEY.COM
Who says capital spending is dead?
Sure, Intel (INTC) is cutting its investment plans, and Sun Microsystems (SUNW) has been sucking fumes for two years. But in San Diego's Mission Valley, a whole new city financed by corporate America has risen in the shadow of Qualcomm Stadium, site of Sunday's Super Bowl.
Well, OK, the city modestly bills itself as a Corporate Hospitality Village, and its buildings are really just big tents. For all that, it's still a fair bet that this is one village capable of accommodating refugees from a medium-sized war.
The natives, after all, like to live large. Two years into the earnings bust and a mere year since Enron hit the fan, there are still executives who don't think that $500 Super Bowl tickets alone cut it. Maybe they want to nosh on the Pistachio Crusted Sides of Salmon at the pregame spread in the Stadium Club. Perhaps they crave the personal attention dispensed at "an exclusive security entrance" to the stadium. Heck, they might scare up some business in the relative seclusion of a private tent designed to "promote their corporate identity."
I'm not here to question these people's motives or the way they spend their tax-deductible entertainment budgets. I'm merely here to suggest that on Sunday, as you crunch your way through a bag of generic potato chips, you should say a prayer for all the businessmen enjoying the open-bar conviviality of those tents. Because if they're crying in their beer - or, worse, if they don't show up at all - it's likely to be another long year for the stock market.
Some silly bit of Wall Street lore attempts to handicap stocks' prospects based on the outcome of the Big Game, be it an NFC win or an AFC triumph. Such gimmicks aside, the Super Bowl is a useful business indicator in two ways. First, it is the premier showcase for new marketing messages targeting a national audience. Second, it is the marquee corporate entertainment ticket, and as such offers insights into the current fragile state of the boardroom psyche.
And fragile it is. Locals with rooms to rent aren't making out like they used to, reports the hometown San Diego Union-Tribune. The National Football League reserved a big block of hotel space for its clients, then dumped an unexpectedly large portion back onto a flooded market.
The Buccaneers-Raiders match-up won't help, since San Diego weather likely won't lure as many fans from toasty Tampa and temperate Oakland as would have come from freezing Philadelphia and icy Nashville.
Times are tough all over. Caterers are catering fewer and more modest functions than they did the last time the NFL carnival came to San Diego, in 1998. Corporate revelers are more likely to hire a local band instead of a more expensive national act, says Deborah K. Wardrop, an NFL executive who oversees hospitality sales. "They are not as lavish as in the past," she says of this year's parties. "People are being careful about how they spend their money."
On the other hand, hospitality sales have been running well above the pace of last year's Super Bowl, when terrorism fears and economic worries kept the high rollers away from New Orleans. Last year, demand was so poor that some scalpers ended up dumping Super Bowl tickets at a loss in the final hour before kickoff, a telling indicator of the lousy year that followed for business investment and the stock market.
Some perspective is in order: Pro football is weathering the current economic cold spell a lot better than most other major sports. Two National Hockey League teams are in bankruptcy. The market for free-agent baseball players is undergoing a Nasdaq-like deflation this winter. Whereas by the middle of last week, a semblance of Super Bowl normality was restored, with a Comfort Inn offering a minimum four-night room rental at $169 per diem.
They need to gouge someone in San Diego, where the economic climate is not as balmy as the ocean breezes. For a while last week, the Union-Trib's homepage led with this news: "San Diego imposes an immediate hiring freeze as the city manager warns that layoffs of police, firefighters and other city workers are almost inevitable under Gov. Gray Davis' budget plans."
Unfortunately for the locals, they've already had to dub this "the fans' Super Bowl," as distinct from the traditional "soak-the-fat-cats" variety. The fat cats are lying low. Qualcomm (QCOM), the wireless tech supplier and top local company, already has its name plastered on the stadium. It felt no need to get involved in other ways, beyond sponsoring a couple of do-good projects tying local schools to the event.
Why should you care? Because bosses unwilling to spend an odd million on the biggest corporate bash of the year probably lack the confidence to throw the odd billion at the next hot investment opportunity, even if one turns up. And without an increase in business investment, corporate America will remain on course for profit growth of a sort that will keep bond yields looking attractive.
I was encouraged for a while to discover that Home Depot (HD) and Gateway (GTW) took some time out from causing their shareholders grief to sponsor San Diego's Super Bowl Host Committee. But it turns out that Gateway, at least, scaled back a more ambitious sponsorship plan in favor of donating a few personal computers out of the surplus piling up at its stores.
The good news is that a few bosses are still willing to spend millions to reach a mass consumer audience. Walt Disney's (DIS) ABC network should have an easier time selling its last few remaining late-game ad spots than a worried Fox (FOX) did last year. Rates are up some 10% to an average of $2.1 million per 30-second spot, tying a record set back in 2000, according to AdAge.com.
Ah, but how the advertisers have changed. Those cat wranglers from EDS (EDS) have suffered so many scratches, they are out of the picture. The dancing E*Trade (ET) monkey went off to mourn the Pets.com sock puppet. Taking up their slack in a continuation of last year's trend will be the staid purveyors of cola, beer, movies and other items that won't bust your budget, plus the occasional interest-free car that might.
On Sunday, Michael Jordan will pitch PepsiCo's (PEP) Gatorade by playing basketball against his younger self, then team up with Jackie Chan to plug new Hanes tagless t-shirts for Sara Lee (SLE). Reluctant taxpayer Willie Nelson will represent H&R Block (HRB).
Two venerable brands will attempt belated makeovers against all odds, as Cadillac flogs its new XLR roadster and Levi's attempts to restore its fading market share by rolling out fashion-forward Type1 jeans.
For reasons that are hard to grasp, two online job boards, TMP Worldwide's (TMPW) Monster.com and Yahoo's (YHOO) HotJobs.com, are still throwing money at the black hole that is the labor market. AdAge.com, the source of the sneak previews above, gets to the point on the HotJobs ad's angle: "With the economy in the tank and the war looming, ad will be 'optimistic, sensitive and inspirational.'"
Consider me inspired.
-For more information and analysis of companies and mutual funds, visit SmartMoney.com at http://www.smartmoney.com/.