Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
alan
"It sounds like you disagree with the MP conclusions? If so, do you have any other data?"
No. There is few people having access to these data, i am not among these. However, your belief is definitely way more accurate than the MP-numbers you posted. Stick to your own due diligence for the better picture.
K.
alan
Could you pls elaborate on your understanding of "data"?
K.
Steve
"Intel is increasing margins"
We will know if that is the case in just couple of hours.
I somewhat doubt GM are up, not only for the reason below.
"DELL is raising guidance"
Yes. Rewards for staying away from Opteron currently allow for pretty aggressive pricing by DELL, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. That bodes well short-term. As i see prices coming down significantly this year anyway, it wont probably hurt Dell from a strategic viewpoint.
"I wouldn't write off Intel this year yet"
Sure. For Intel, this is no problem as well if trading down prices can be limited to the extent cost effects from 300mm/90nm will be kicking in within the next eighteen months or so.
"How can Intel hide these problems in the earnings report?"
For those focussing on financials, there is nothing that Intel would need to hide for a while. Everything will look unexciting, but not scary for couple of quarters.
Except for those focussing on growth-rate, that is.
K.
Michael Moy
Thanks for posting this chart. Good to see smart money in the markets.
Which instruments do you use playing the spread?
K.
I_banker
Exactly.
K.
p.s. where are u from?
I_banker
D'accord.
However, as there are no reserves visible for the issue, the settlement has a cost impact in 2004. As I dont know any details, this could be anything from nothing to 10m USD in Q1.
Taking intransparent contractual relations between AMD and Fujii into account (which leave room for another 20m plus or minus for the minority interest position in AMDs books) it is nothing short of impossible for any Analyst to model this quarters earnings, even if he had excellent grip on revenues, costs and inventories.
Heck, cornered like this, it is pretty understandable these guys are very cautious on AMD figures. I would be, on an analysts seat.
Assuming AMDs management is acting (to be precice: not acting) fully intentional here, there seem to be issues to be resolved for which low forecasts are helpful. The fact we have not seen any insider buying for quite a while, even after a shame period following the ESOP-exchange, could be considered as a supporting signal there still is something.
Or, as somebody has put it wrt my signature:
"AMD does not care about its investors"
Anyway: This all is pretty irrelevant in an investment horizon longer than couple of weeks or months. Could well be that Hector deliberately wants to shake out short-term capital of the stock to prevent the common the roller-coaster moves of the past.
K.
K.
I_banker
Thanks.
I did not even find a comment in AMDs 2003 annual, but I only searched for Intergraph and for lawsuit, could be they used other words.
K.
Anybody of you folks familiar with American GAAP treatment of reserves for pending lawsuits?
I could neither find anything in AMDs consolidated balance sheet nor any remark in the annual report.
K.
fpg
They implemented a publicly-disclosed ISA
Well. Later this year, we will see if they did it successfully. I would not be surprized if it will look more like a first attempt by the end of the year. It is a challenge to implement an ISA developed for another µP-Architecture flawlessy; let alone performant.
K.
paul
Another impressive piece of analysis: Estimates for the past to let him look better than most of his colleagues next week, useless chatter for the future.
K.
bobs10
On your comments with respect to Intels management, right on the spot in my book.
K.
otmm
All right, then I agree, and in particular in the "short-term" comment.
K.
doug
That is what most people believe as well.
K.
doug
"It's all nonsense".
However, as long as enough people believe in whatever nonsense, nonsense becomes a pattern. Which will lead even more people to believe in it. Then it becomes a rule. Or a law, btw.
K.
Buggi
Looks like very good ASP's ...
Yes. Even if HPQ is paying 50% of listprices, it will be good for AMDs ASP.
Are these machines configured properly for Corporate use? Gigabit Ethernet and all what it takes?
K.
p.s. Off for a pint now
Buggi
Well, yeah, i mean safer computing seems to get rather accepted than safer sex.
K.
buggi
NForce over a third of AMD share?? Way beyond every number I have seen from other sources.
K.
Btw, did they give any explanations what the money is for they seek?
cg
Being the last one leaving the sinking ship at least qualifies you for four stripes on your uniform.
Cui honorem, honorem.
Worth a lot more than the money you might loose betting on it. ;)
K.
Keith
Nice. They found a way to avoid this:
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=2741921
XPs are used to replace Celerons in value.
Well, certainly creates value for everybody (except the manufacturer of Celerons, that is ;)
Now, within just weeks, HPQ for the second times demonstrates crystal-clear commitment to AMD-64.
Impressive. I am sure not only for me, but for couple of Dell-Customers as well ;)
K.
Buggi
Yup. With Athlon64-2800+ it makes a mainstream system.
Hopefully it will penetrate Corporate Desktops to an extent that it will not only cannibalize XPs.
K.
jjayxx
Thanks for hosting the contest again.
There seems to be a problem with your mailform.
(A failure has occurred while adding your Mailform entry)
K.
Edit: Tried again couple of times. Not sure if the entries have been submitted??
paul
As there has been no constraints AMD had with Intel's IP, there are no constraints for Intel using AMD's AP.
The time lags only need an explanation for the naive imagination that instruction sets could be implemented in other cores like lego-pieces in no time and being produced the day after that in volumes.
As soon as you dont have this imagination, there is nothing left to be really curious about.
K.
paul
Funny how everybody seems to seek for a possible explanation why Intel would not want to or is not allowed to do things.
I'm just curious why barely anybody let the possibility come to surface that Intel is just not ready to ship a competitive X86-64-product.
Iaw: The myth of Intel-omnipotence is alive - even on the AMD-boards.
K.
Keith
Maybe only strange as long as caches are only compared in terms of size and real-estate on silicon - which can easiliy be as misleading as comparing CPUs just in terms of clockspeed....
Put in another way, there could be very good reasons why AMDs cache is built differently (not as dense as Intels e.g).
To be able to see the whole picture it would be necessary to have knowledge of all specifications and characteristics of the caches to be compared.
Would highly appreciate any contributions thisrespectively.
If what Dresdenboy has seen is indeed a 90nm wafer (which I believe it is) whith identical proportions of Core and cache as 130nm, it is possibile as well that it holds 2MB of Cache instead of one, which would make up for similar densities as Intels Cache. Not that I would think of it as highly probable, just as a possibiltiy.
K.
p.s: Tx for pm - certainly I cannot comment on postings I have never seen. But I am sure if these were even worse than these I have seen, deletion happened certainly with good reason.
OT Rupert
It seemed to me that his use of the Board for that purpose was at least provocative.
Well, diplomacy is certainly not one of elmers strength.
It is a pity this is not tolerated on the boards.
K.
Edit: Well, I remember he crossed the border of my tolerance level as well, occasionally.
rupert
I do remember elmers good-bye post on this thread.
And it happened before on SI-thread.
However, before you draw any premature conclusion from the pattern, you might take an hour or two to read through the postings which lead to it. It makes a fascinating read if you are interested in socialogical phenomena.
K.
yb
The A64 slow ramp. Those rather shoking numbers
http://overclockers.com/tips00552/
must be explained somehow.
Why do you believe in the numbers?
K.
elmer
Welcome back. Good to see you again, hope you are well.
K.
yb
Beyond a short-term revenue viewpoint, for how long would you think Dell will be Topdog without a competitive server-offering? (How many customers will DELL loose from April going forward every months?)
As for short term revenues from an AMD perspective, DELL is pretty irrelevant, Xeons are falling off a cliff anyway, Opterons are available from HP, IBM, SUN, if there is demand.
AMD does not really have to care who will sell it anymore.
In a nutshell, I see Michael Dell sitting on a hot plate (On a prescott maybe )
Lessee how indolent he really is.
K.
rupert
thanks, I see your point as well - looking at the EPS consensus which implies that AMD would not be able to fund its planned Capex from Cash Flow.
The fact is has been beaten consistantly and significantly by 12, 25, 75 and 200% in the recent quarters is not what the street is really looking at.
It is the forecasts.
K.
p.s: Btw, considering the rumour Groo brought up that first working 90nm K8-silicon came from East Fishkill, one could think of other reasons for Hectors Investor Relations policy as well (if the conversation between them is not limited to joint development and manufacturing - not really highly probable, but not completely impossible as well.)
sgolds
No, that does not mean it. I did not even bother to read through the plan yet. If it seems not to be complete nonsense, they will get my vote for it. They have allowance for a couple of weak decisions and weak communication as long their strategy is grosso modo ok - which is the case imo.
I just feel slapped in my shareholders face reading through the agenda. And I am sure I am not the only one.
The bad thing about that is that the real voting does not take place at April 29 in Sunnyvale, but every day in New York.
K.
rupert
My point is poor Investor Relations.
I dont see the management giving any signal that it is convinced the stock is currently undervalued and the analyst consensuses for earnings in 2004 and 2005 are way off their own expecations, although they have beaten it in the last consecutive four quarters by 12,5, 25, 75 and 200%.
It would not require much cash to buy back 1 Mio shares per quarter (current allowance is 300Mio USD). And it would cost the company no cash at all if the management would buy some of the shares of the company to show conviction it is worth to do so.
Instead they ask their shareholders for allowance for a stock options "incentive" plan. The recognition of that is that they want to acquire stock at more favorable conditions instead of simply buying it at current prices.
Which is not only a slap in the face of shareholders, but more importantly is not exactly the kind of signal what makes the investment community believe AMD would be an attractive investment currently. Which is not in the interest of AMDs shareholders.
I did not look much closer at it yet, maybe it makes sense.
If so, it is communicated in about the worst way possible.
K.
sgolds
Agree. For the second consecutive year, stock options issues are the main topic of AMDs shareholders meeting. What the management obviously cares most about creates somewhat the impression that Hectors New AMD tries to become even better in using other peoples money than Jerrys Company did fairly successfully.
Add that no insiders are buying, no buyback of shares for the company is to be seen, and the way these guys are treating analysts, it makes some pretty clear picture:
"We currently care a d... sh... about shareprice of AMD common".
Which is not exactly the message I like to be transmitted to the street in a balanced consideration of shareholders interests in their(!) annual meeeting.
K.
keith, buck wheat
FASL was a frontend manufacturing JV before the reorganisation, no synergies to be expected there. There are (as you say, limited) synergies to be explored in the backend (testing and packaging) plus a couple of administrative functions. Potential in the low single digits of overall costs is the ballpark percentagewise. However, for FASL any double digit Mio cost figure per year makes the difference between a loss and a profit currently, so it is not neglectible at all.
And yes, far more important is how fast they come down to smaller geometries with mirrorbit, which is only at 0,17 and 0,23 micron currently in volume production and does not offer a direct cost advantage over 0,13FG-products right now (apart from the fact that it does allow to use 0,17 and 0,23 micron limited tools longer). Here is the crucial point not only in the NOR competition, but more important in the Flash competition between NOR and NAND in the next couple of years.
K.
yb
Trying to keep things as easy as possible is a good thing, but neglecting that market dynamics exist at all (inventories as well) is an oversimpification.
K.
keith
Your pricing question inspired me to review my current model with emphasis on the ASP-forecast:
Although I still see AMDs portfolio trade up significantly, I currently do not see three digit ASP at any time for these reasons:
1. Global economic outlook looks muddy (to me). Growths in all developed regions more nominally than real, negative trade balances, increasing deficits, all that will likeley make a pessimistic environment for years to come. (Asia (except Japan) growing in the high single digits, positive trade balances, is a better place to be within the next years from an economic viewpoint.)
2. Consequently, I expect IT demand to grow slower than predicted. Unit-Shipments averaging up only in the single digits or very low double digits.
3. For PCs in particular, I see the fraction of users who seek more CPU-performance for their needs continue to decline. And I dont see any application for this year that would be able to change this perception except for some enthusiast niches. So, all the (unit)-growth I see is coming from mobile - better said laptop format. Not sure about serverspace. There is definitely a need for performance, guess Opterons will penetrate the market faster than every server processor ever did. But on the other side of this medal I see Xeons falling off a cliff as we speak.
4. Capacities at Intel are set for 15 percent market growth and current marketshares.
Conclusion: Intels cost advantages from 90nm/300mm will probably be used to lower prices (to spur demand, prevent from significant loss of market shares and to keep the fab utilized). Talking about 5% sequentially in every quarter for the next six quarters. For clarification, I am not talking about waterfalls, but net ASP declines.
Bottomline, I not only see no growth of CPU-market volume in Dollar-terms, but rather a likelyhood of a slight contraction.
5. Now, for AMDs ASP forecast, to trade up the portfolio in such an environment is still possible by means of server-CPUs, but probably not to the extent it would allow three-digit ASP as long as AMD delivers into all segments of X86. I am confident they will be in the 80s in the second half of this year again, maybe the 90s as well next year, but 100 Dollar will most probably be the ceiling: Actually, I see a crossover of Intels and AMDs ASP around 90 USD. Hard to say when, could be anytime between next year and 2007.
6. Just in case all that would sound too pessimistic: I sure hope it is. But even if it is not, there is still a lot of money in it for AMD: On a per share-basis, it is more than current estimates for Intel (which would appear optimistic anyway if the above is not far off what will happen.)
K.
keith
Yes. If you are referring to the performance segment, ASP have been in the three digits in Dollar terms.
Detailed analysis: http://www-public.tu-bs.de:8080/~y0005007/
K.
keith
ASP in 2000 were in the 80s, as far as I remember. K.
keith
Suggest to google "buggi AMD". K.
( I have short memory, as you know already )