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Ezenia has made a major move lately. Closed over $1 on 9/20/04. Big move from .60's a few weeks ago. No news but I think there is an awareness of how many experimental projects Ezenia has been involved in with DOD and Homeland Security. Sooner or later, one of these projects is going to be implemented and Ezenia is going to increase revenues by large amts. Bobwins
Aspn.ob is creeping up again to the 1.30's on light volume. 10K is due soon so we will have much more information to judge their progress and answer some of our questions.
Bobwins
Ducks game is Oct 30, 2004. I have a college friend that has been taking me to Husky games for several years. He has season tickets to both football and basketball. So this other friend and I decided to treat him to an away game. Never been to Autzen Stadium. Probably not going to be a pleasant experience this year. Huskies don't look too good and Ducks are doing fine. Bob
shmolton
Yes, I picked him up after 3 weeks. He had a great experience. They had great weather. Picked them up in Mt. Rainier National Park. He has gone back to San Diego to look for a job. His girlfriend is off to Europe for a Masters program.
Stocks have turned up lately. Last few days have been great due to TGA, MDPA, EGY.
I haven't been to Eugene in a while but always seemed like a great city. I will be down there in a few weeks. Bought tickets to see the Ducks beat the Huskies. Bob
shmolton
How are you doing?? Still knocking them dead??
You didn't tell me anything about moving to the NW. Did your recent trip change your mind or give you any ideas??
Bobwins
rjkraco
I'm not positive but I don't think the gas stops for weekends. The thing I like about oil/gas wells is there is a lag between the announcement of success and the actual impact on the financials. With a little math, you can pretty accurate predict the impact because with energy stocks, they can sell all they can make. Not true with normal companies that introduce a new product. Might sell great or it might bomb.
So even though energy stocks are volatile and mother nature can be cruel, they are good for folks that want to do a little math and accumulate shares before the actual numbers come out at qtr's end. Doesn't work every time because the commodity prices can slump in the meantime but works often enough and especially with most commodity prices strong lately.
I think there is more room for commodity prices to go up but definitely want to stick to energy companies that are increasing production and reserves just to be safe. That way, even if prices moderate, you probably have a winner.
Good luck. Bobwins
rjkraco
I assume the royalty is going to the seller of the lease to ASPN.ob. I had sent an email to CEO asking for example of how new wells would impact ASPN.ob financially and he responded with pretty much that example. It is likely not present on all the wells but figure it's best to be conservative.
Why do I quote $400K per qtr???
Because I forgot about the 27% royalty AND ngas was higher when I first started this. I think I was using $6, now using 4.60. Combine the two and you get a pretty good sized drop in qtrly revs.
I am hoping to fill in the missing blanks when 10K is published in a few weeks for fye 6/30/04. Bobwins
Mdpa very strong today. New 52wkhi!!! 1.45 on 203K
Hurricanes not going to hurt mdpa that much. Still getting 25,000 X $400 per month regardless of clinics being open. $10 million a month in revs, expenses will likely be light because clinics are closed and patients evacuated.
Damage to clinics could hurt ongoing revs but overall mdpa should be ok in spite of hurricanes.
Bobwins
When you first start with Investors Hub, you only get 3 posts a day. It's their way to encourage membership. After a while, they upgrade you to 18 posts a day. That's where I am.
As far as size, here's my view. The guy is experienced and uses good subcontractors for drilling and operation. He monitors the wells very closely compared to bigger companies. He researches potential sites very carefully and looks at 20-30 for every one he buys.
So he is primarily dealing with financing, monitoring wells and finding new prospects. Since he has a 9 well drill program for all of 2004, I think he can handle that and if he hits 7/7, reserves and production will go way up. How much more can he grow? I think he could double again in 2005 with the same routine. Now that he is very cashflow positive, he may not have to worry as much about financing going forward.
I am very high on this guy. No nonsense, veteran. I think its good for a hold thru at least 2005 while the wells get all hooked up. Hopefully he can develop similar prospects for 2005. I have found a poster in the energy business. He checked with a geologist he knows and says Cohan is top notch. In fact he said he hasn't been able to present him with a good enough prospect so he hasn't been able to sell him any prospective sites. Picky.
Bob
deathtotaxes.
I have had a hard time figuring out this stock. When I first started buying it went straight up from 1.00 to 1.30. Pretty good volume and then thud! It dropped back to a buck. Volume has been minimal since. MM's don't take less than ask unless they get a sell order. Very stubborn and wide spread.
The only thing I can tell you is that all the news has been positive for the 2 months I have been buying but I don't think most investors have figured out the good news that is coming down the pike. Patience!!
Bobwins
Lentinman, thanks for the support. Can't believe the damn thing went down today. Of course PR was vague. That's this guy's pattern. Very reluctant for some reason to spell out actual test results and production rates in a logical order. That's why I built that table to track things because trying to go back and forth between the PR's was really frustrating to me. Hopefully 9/30 earnings will wake some people up but that's still 3 months from now. Guess I should be happy to accumulate some $1 shares!!!
Bobwins
Aspn.ob has been weak lately, dropping below $1 during the week of 8/20 from the 1.30 area. I have been slowly adding around the $1 level. I think the price decline was caused by a mutual fund closing out some positions. Nothing has changed and in fact, ASPN.ob reported that the WGU 15-8 well was connected and producing at a higher rate than originally tested. The 3500mcfpd rate reported will generate close to $400K per qtr for Aspn.ob or almost double last qtr's total revs. The well was connected in August so q1 will have a positive effect but for about 1/2 the qtr. Of the five successful wells in 2004, 3 were hooked up earlier but their production rates were not published.
I am hopeful that the 10K due in Sept will clear up the production for the remaining wells, especially WGU 16-3, which appears to be of similar potential to 15-8. Bobwins
Everything you wanted to know about molybdenum:
http://www.adanacgold.com/Molybdenum.pdf
Bobwins
This is the one I was referring to. Not sure if this would increase diluted share count because there isn't any exercise price mentioned so don't know if they are in the money or vested. Bobwins
VANCOUVER, B.C., MAY 17, 2004 – San Telmo Energy Ltd. (OTCBB: STUOF; TSX-V: STU) announces a non-brokered private placement for proceeds of CDN $2,800,000. The placement is for 4,000,000 units at a price of $0.70 per unit. Each private placement unit will consist of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. The warrants will be exercisable at a price of $0.82 for a period of two years. 700,000 of the private placement units will consist of one flow-through share and one common share purchase warrant.
The private placement is subject to approval by the TSX Venture Exchange.
The proceeds of this placement will be used to tie-in production at San Telmo’s recently announced gas discovery at Teepee Creek, Alberta and to drill an additional exploration well at Teepee Creek and for general corporate purposes.
Granting of Options
San Telmo has granted 1,900,000 director and employee options exercisable at a price of $0.82 for five years. These options will vest over time in accordance with the company’s stock option plan, which has been approved by the shareholders. In addition, the Company wishes to amend 1,100,000 director and employee options granted October 31, 2003 from an exercise price of $1.95 to $0.82.
The granting of stock options is subject to approval of the TSX Venture Exchange.
I did see a SEC doc that talked about granting options of 1.X million shares as options. That might be part of the difference if the options were immediately in the money. Can't remember the exact number of shares but it was over a million. Wasn't 3 million so don't have total answer. Bobwins
Wow! Nice job on the board, Art!!!
This is how a message board should look!!
Nice combo of pictures, graphs and company info and facts.
Bobwins
Interview with Robert Cohan very informative. Says well 16-3 could be very big(5-6mcfd) A well that size could almost double gross revs for Aspn.ob by itself. Aspn.ob made $440K last qtr. 5000cfpd at 21% working interest, less royalties means about $400k revs for aspn. Should get test results next week. Bobwins
There is a new interview of Robert Cohan, CEO at Wallstreet.net. Cohan discusses drilling program and indicates that 16-3 could be very big at 5 or 6mcfd. That would be a huge jump in production and cause an increase to my eps expectations. Test results should be out in a few days. Looking forward to seeing actuals.
This does confirm that iesv doesn't have the surface rights. Kinda scary but maybe this is typical of mining situations. I could see some nasty problems if the other mining company wants to hold iesv hostage. Bobwins
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Press Release Source: Aspen Exploration Corporation
Aspen Announces More Gas Discoveries & Test Rates
Monday July 12, 12:50 pm ET
DENVER, CO--(MARKET WIRE)--Jul 12, 2004 -- Aspen Exploration Corporation (OTC BB:ASPN.OB - News), with offices in Bakersfield, California, and Denver, Colorado, has announced additional successful results from its drilling efforts in the West Grimes Field, Colusa County, California. Aspen has drilled 5 successful gas wells out of 5 attempts in 2004 and anticipates drilling 4 additional wells in the Sacramento Valley gas province of northern California this year.
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The WGU #15-8, located in the West Grimes Field, Colusa County, California, was directionally drilled to a depth of 7,750 feet and encountered approximately 60 feet of potential net gas pay in the Forbes Formation. This well was perforated and flow tested from two zones at a combined prolific gas rate of 3,264 MCFPD. The main zone in this well tested 2,580 MCFPD with a flowing tubing pressure of 3,180 psig on a 12/64" choke. The shut in tubing pressure was 3,700 psig. This zone appears to be capable of flowing at higher gas rates.
The WGU #16-3 was drilled to a depth of 7,950 feet and encountered approximately 55 feet of potential net gas pay in the Forbes Formation. Production casing was run based on very promising mud log and electric log responses. The well will be perforated and tested in July 2004.
These wells were drilled based on a recently acquired 10.5 square mile 3-D seismic program located over Aspen's 5,000 plus leased acres in this field. Ten to fifteen excellent drilling prospects have been identified. The wells in this field produce from multiple Forbes intervals ranging in depth from 6,000 feet to 8,500 feet and have produced over 79 BCF of gas to date. Numerous wells in this immediate area have produced at very prolific flow rates (4,000 MCFPD), have yielded excellent per well reserves (3 to 4 BCF per well), and have long productive well lives. Several of the 10 producing wells that Aspen acquired in this field last year (see prior news releases) have been producing for 40 years. Aspen believes that several of these wells may have additional gas potential in behind-pipe zones, which have not yet been perforated. Aspen has a 21% operated working interest in this field. Aspen plans to drill a minimum of two more wells in the West Grimes Field this year. The Morris #12-2 will be drilled in August 2004 and the WGU #15-9 in the fall of 2004.
During the last 3 1/2 years, Aspen participated in the drilling of 20 operated wells, 17 of which were completed as gas wells and 3 dry holes which were plugged and abandoned, a success rate of 85%. Aspen currently operates 43 gas wells and has non-operated interests in 16 additional wells in the Sacramento Valley of northern California.
Aspen's increased cash flow coupled with the present inventory of prime drilling acreage provide a sound basis for Aspen's continued growth as a profitable and successful energy producer. Future news releases will keep shareholders informed of Aspen's continuing progress and drilling activity. Because of gas discoveries and acquisitions made during the previous twelve months and favorable gas prices currently in excess of $5.75 per MMBTU, Aspen expects positive earnings for the current fiscal year.
Aspen's stock is quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board under the symbol ASPN. For more information concerning Aspen, contact Bob Cohan, President and CEO, in Aspen's Bakersfield office at (661) 831-4669. Aspen's web page can be found at www.aspenexploration.com.
I filled my propane tank for the bbq yesterday. $2.25/gas and they said the price had just dropped. I can't remember last year but it seems like propane has historically been more than gasoline. I wonder what the wholesale cost to the gas station was and how much IESV could get for their product? Also don't know if you can break into the existing supply chains. Did the propane company supplying that gas station help them finance the tank? Can they buy from anyone they want??
Likely that IESV would sell the propane wholesale to that company rather than try to get into the distribution business in a big way. With the ngas prices soaring, new wells harder to find, overall US production falling.......there's got to be a window for an alternative source for the fuel!!!
One of the articles mentioned a university getting samples of the Magic Valley digester gas. I wonder if IESV is going to get help from the school in developing the most cost effective ways to refine the base product into the highest value end product? So many questions, so few answers!!!LOL!!
August approaches............Do I smell a fart or the smell of MONEY???? Bobwins
Ezenia needs to show consistent sales increases. The last qtr was very promising but the company needs to demonstrate bigger top line growth to attract attention.
I like the fact that they are already in the DOD and are in daily use. It must be a very competitive playing field for this little company. I have good feelings about the company and its product based on the DD here and on RB board but remain a little worried about the sales cycle for various govt entities. Ezenia has their foot in the door but getting to the point of selling across many levels of govt takes a long time. Hopefully they will get a big sale soon that will put them solidly in the limelight. Bobwins
This is the best article I have read about the digesters. It puts quite a few things into perspective.
1. There are only 40 digesters in the whole country
2. Normal digesters that supply gas that is used to generate electricity on site are marginally economic, taking 10 to 20 years to get a payback and require large capital outlays.
3. There are competitors selling digesters
4. IESV claims to reduce payback to 5 to 10 years depending on the alternative use for the gas
5. Farmers aren't going to voluntarily spend the money to build anything.
6. Local government is resistant to forcing the dairies into a mandatory solution. Dairies are pretty big business in Idaho.
7. Low electricity rates from Hydro make it harder for the digesters to pay for themselves in Idaho. Article states they would get about .05 per unit supplied and need .062 to .065 to provide economic reason to build digester. So you need at least 30% increase in revenues to make this work.
This last point is the crucial one. IESV maintains it's digester is unique in a couple of ways. They say their licensed technology provides a quicker digestion period, which fits into the farmers routine better AND the methane gas produced has a higher energy content. Also IESV has been concentrating on higher value added uses for the methane. The combination of higher content gas and higher uses in combination may be able to bridge the 30% gap.
Since IESV hasn't trotted out real life examples of this technology working, I am assuming that it is being used elsewhere to generate electricity but Not to supply alternative higher value uses. Therefore they can't point to a dairy in Europe and say look it works here and has been making money for 10 years.
This article is great but does point out the challenges. The 30% gap may be just to get to breakeven on a single dairy unit. That doesn't allow for IESV to support corporate overhead, pay for sales and engineering and make stockholders rich!!! How much more do we need to make decent money for IESV???? That's the big unanswered question.
Also once you build the infrastructure, what stops a competitor from taking advantage of all the groundwork IESV has done in the Magic Valley and selling a dairy another type of digester. How do they keep the loyalty of the farmers and prevent politicians from requiring them to open up their facilities to all methane producers?
Thanks Dallas for the nice DD. Bobwins
This PR will be a good test to see if anyone is listening. Should be a positive. If they continue this well in May and June, we should be at .02eps or better. Fwd p/e of 3+ for a company growing revs at 33% and profits better than that.
Company seems upbeat about new opportunities for either purchasing smaller regional players or selling them related services now that Spal has excess capacity at low rates.
I feel better about company without Khashoggi but he sounds like he had a big part in their negotiations to get better deals. Hope he keeps his shares and doesn't sell out. That's all we need.
Hopefully he will hang in there and let the company develop their revs and continue the profitability. We should be at .50 minimum and probably closer to .75. Let's hope this is the first of several PR's this qtr.
Bobwins
I am surprised that the q1 results as well as 10K didn't get a better reaction. We will get formal 10Q and publication of Yahoo qtrly financials to reemphasize good news but don't think that going to light the fire. Maybe needs a couple of great qtrs to convince investors that Spal.ob is for real.
Bobwins
Issuing a preliminary PR subject to audit probably depends on how much change they see the new CPA firm making to their 12/03 financials. If there are some big changes that impact net profit and eps, they would not want to have to adjust down from .055 for 2003 and then do it again for q1, 2004.
They probably have a pretty good idea right now if the CPA is finding that they need big adjustments. If not, then I agree, a preliminary PR would do a lot to get the stock price moving again. Would be a fairly big sigh of relief and come cautious buying. Let's hope for the best. Bobwins
Overall mkt is pretty weak. I was going to buy some at .30 today but missed at the close. Will try again tomorrow and see if it shows any strength. No matter what the reason for the drop in the stock price, we will have to get positive numbers of some kind to get it back to a positive bias.
Company has already issued unaudited annual results(.055eps) and changing CPA so 10K is weeks away. That leaves some kind of sales announcement or new product intro or alliance to move stock.
Good luck. Bobwins
The reason I'm in Telt is last qtr eps of .07 and intro of new voip switchboard in q1. If they could come close to .07 again, we would be sitting pretty. The intro of a new product line seemed to indicate they were on their way back. Telecom still must be tough, though. Bobwins
Telt getting hammered today. Down .15 to .50!! No news.
I tried to call CEO yesterday but no call back. I bot a little at .52. They didn't have any shares so it wasn't like the MM was swamped with shares. They had to raise bid to get someone to sell shares so I could buy. I hope they were just trying to square up cheaply and get ready for earnings.
Same thing happened on Veix with a twist. They posted a huge 6 million share trade and price dropped from 1.90's to 1.60's. I figure it was prearranged trade between insiders or maybe someone who financed veix.
I tried to buy at ask at 1.82 and they had no shares. I got 500 at 1.82 and they raised to 1.85. Bot a little more and it stayed at 1.85.
Bobwins
I have lots of mdpa. Think it has a lot more room to run due to recently approved Medicare legislation. Mdpa CEO, Mike Earley, say Humana is running print ads and a 30 minute informercial in Florida to promote Medicare Advantage.
Says in 10K that current Medicare enrollment in Fla is 10.8%. California is 20% already and goal for new program is 30% of seniors. That would mean big increase in revs but enrollment goal could take till end of decade to achieve.
Company has solved all near term problems. There will be dilution from all the debt to stock exchanges that have been done. I calculate that after everything is considered they will need to use almost 53 million shares for diluted eps.
They will issue q1 in May but since 7 million shares were issued during q1, the average shares outstanding for diluted calc will be closer to 50 million.
Also did calculation that debt converted to equity will save company 220K for 2004. Might be less because again didn't convert till part way thru q1 2004.
That savings should help compensate for the extra shares outstanding.
Key to Mdpa price increase will be increased top line revs.
They have successfully cut costs and are actively paying down debt. They need top line rev growth to justify higher p/e. They finished 2003 at .10 eps fully diluted but w/o tax. If they had a decent p/e, they would be at $2 right now. Instead they are at $1. Won't get higher p/e unless they show top line growth.
Humana ads may bring growth that mdpa is looking for without a lot of risk taking on their part. CEO says they will be very cautious about any new ventures due to problems they just got fixed. Expecting new Medicare revs to show up in q2/q3. Bobwins
Spal.ob has been in a declining price mode for several months. Good news out of Spain about revenue initiatives but seems like there is a seller that is depressing price.
Expecting positive revenues numbers due to phone card business as well as carrier deals that PR said increased traffic and revs.
If Spal can continue at anything close to .02 eps, then price will jump from .30-.33 range.
Owned before, sold on big runup and have now reentered due to price fall. Bobwins