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QQQ....Covered my other short at $23.90 to take my profit.
SNE....Short candidate
>>>It looks like anticipation of Powell's Iraq speech is what is moving the market. These is equally irrational market behavior.
But there it is...
Menwhile, it looks like the war has been put off for another 6 weeks to satisfy the UN.<<<
rrational? I don't think so. This market is overvaled and we still have to many Bulls. Also, the N.Korea news is also moving the market. Tried to communicate this to the board on Monday.
QQQ....I have two shorts from Monday. One at $24.77 and one at $24.44. I just covered the 24.77 short at $24.15. I will hold the other short into Wed.
IBM....Watching for a break in support.
Yes, I will re-enter AAII. I also prefer the drug-biotechs over tech.
>>>No just trying to keep your emotional pesimissm in a larger perspective. Cancer and heart disease are a much bigger problem than NK. In fact, you can add AIDS to that as well.<<<
Yes, those are big problems but they move the market. The recent N.Korea developments will move the market. As far as emotional pessimism, I'm just reporting facts. No emotion needed for that. I just believe the N.Korea problem is a bigger issue then Iraq and as traders we need to know about these outside forces when trading.
AAII....Sold it at the open to take the profit.
>>>Cancer and heart disease are both bigger problems than NK.
Just to keep things in perspective.<<<
Are you a permabull or something?
U.S. puts forces on N. Korea alert
Pyongyang says U.S. pursues ‘policy of evil’
http://www.msnbc.com/news/850567.asp?0sl=-33
The Forces Behind Forced Selling
By James J. Cramer
02/03/2003 07:22
Forced selling, not fundamentals, creates most tradeable bottoms. You get forced selling from a variety of sources, and it might just help if you understand what they are.
First, the most obvious is when a hedge fund collapses. We saw dramatic forced selling in April of 2000, for example, which caused both the Dow and the Nasdaq to sink precipitously. We later learned that a couple of hedge funds were blowing out of the business and that created the bottom, which was tradeable to the long side for the listed stocks even as the Nazz soon capitulated. Sometimes these collapses can be created by redemptions; the recent collapse of Gotham Partners is a solid example. Sometimes it can be from an investment house trying to be sure it gets its collateral back before it vanishes.
Second, we get forced selling by mutual funds that have redemptions. We saw hefty amounts of this after Sept. 11 and we saw it repeatedly last year during the unwinding of Janus. Yes, Janus is still in business, but no, it doesn't have the same impact it once had because it is much smaller thanks to investors recognizing that there was no there there.
Third, you can get forced selling from institutions like insurance companies, because they have capital calls or have to repatriate capital. I believe that's what happened last week with the British life insurance companies, which were relentless sellers of our stocks. We have seen waves of foreign selling that can be unmitigated, particularly because the dollar has gotten weaker. That's what we saw in the summer of 1987. That's what we are seeing now.
Fourth, you can get forced selling from margined buyers being cashed out by the brokerage firms. We saw that all last year, the year before and in 2000. Now margin debt is so low that I don't think there is much more work to be done here.
I point out these distressed sellers because they are often the key to understanding why you get a rebound. Their forced, relentless selling is what makes the market become oversold, a favorable condition where other, more reasoned sellers say, "What the heck? I am no longer going to sell down here. It is too cheap." Their selling is what creates bargains. Their selling, however, is massively dispiriting because it defies valuation work. You could conceivably have to buy a stock that's down huge simply because one of its larger owners has to sell.
Understand that until the mid-'90s, we didn't have to deal with these unmitigated sellers in a serious way. No one owned so much stock that he could hurt the stock for weeks at a time on the exit. That is no longer the case; some sellers own amounts of stocks that would be considered foolish, if not outright crazy, a half-dozen years ago. It's why I try to size up the owners of stocks before I buy these days; I don't want to get caught in an Invesco redemption downdraft.
What I'm betting on right here with my Action Alerts PLUS money is that the forced selling last week trumped a lot of good news, as it often does, and made me feel that the market had reached a level where the nonforced sellers would be reluctant to sell. That absence of sellers coupled with a rise in the dollar might take the pressure off the insurers from London to dump more shares.
As much as we like to intellectualize and analyze every nuance of the market, it still comes down to supply versus demand, and I am betting that supply dries up down here.
The great thing about this game? We will know immediately if I am wrong!
Finally today CNBC is talking about N.Korea. Monday was the day to set up those shorts. I still think is a bigger problem then Iraq.
AVP .....nice earnings and raised numbers going forward.
As expected it looks like we're heading down today. I plan to cover my shorts late in the day. This morn I bought AAII pre-market. This one should head north.
aaiPharma Receives FDA Approval to Market Azasan(TM) (azathioprine) and
Increases 2003 Revenue and EPS Estimates
Announces Three for Two Stock Dividend
WILMINGTON, N.C., Feb. 4 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- aaiPharma Inc., (Nasdaq: AAII) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved the Company's abbreviated new drug application (ANDA) for Azasan(TM) (azathioprine) 75 mg and 100 mg tablets. Previously unavailable, these new 75 mg and 100 mg Azasan(TM) tablet strengths will provide physicians with more flexible dosage options and contribute to enhanced patient compliance. With this approval and the Company's currently marketed 50 mg dosage form, aaiPharma now offers the most comprehensive line of azathioprine dosage forms on the market today.
"Azathioprine is a proven and useful immunosuppressant, but until now physicians and patients have had to manage the inconvenience of a single oral dosage form," said Frank A. Snyder, MD, of Wilmington Internal Medicine, Adjunct Professor of the Vascular Biology Working Group, and Associate Professor at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "By providing more dosing options, Azasan(TM) should offer physicians greater accuracy and flexibility when prescribing higher doses of azathioprine, and will make it easier for patients to take the medication as prescribed."
According to IMS market data, the 2002 azathioprine market totaled nearly $55 million and continues to grow. A recent survey by IMS in November 2002 indicated that 66 percent of all uses of azathioprine are at 100 mg or more per day. The new Azasan(TM) dosage forms may reduce the number of tablets patients would need to take to achieve an effective dose, a convenience that may translate into better therapeutic compliance. aaiPharma plans to launch the new products on March 1, 2003.
In addition, the Company is increasing its full-year 2003 revenue estimates, which originally included some revenue from Azasan(TM), to between $275 million to $280 million from between $270 million to $275 million. Also, the Company is raising its full-year 2003 earnings per diluted share estimates to between $1.58 and $1.65 from between $1.53 and $1.58.
The Company also announced that it has declared a three for two stock dividend. The record date for the dividend is February 19, 2003, and the distribution date for the dividend is approximately March 10, 2003. Following the stock split, the estimated first quarter and full-year 2003 earnings per diluted share are expected to be between $0.23 and $0.25, and $1.05 and $1.10 respectively.
"The newly approved Azasan(TM) 75 mg and 100 mg products complement our currently available 50 mg tablet, giving aaiPharma the most comprehensive azathioprine product offering on the market today," stated Dr. Philip S. Tabbiner, President and CEO of aaiPharma. "The Azasan(TM) product line is the first proprietary brand to be developed, manufactured, and commercially launched exclusively by aaiPharma, and further demonstrates our ability to execute on our strategy to enhance well-known medicines through research and bring these new, branded products to market."
About Azasan(TM)
Azasan(TM) is indicated as an adjunct for the prevention of rejection in renal (kidney) homotransplantations. It is also indicated for the management of severe, active rheumatoid arthritis unresponsive to rest, aspirin, or other non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, or to agents in the class of which gold is an example.
According to the Arthritis Foundation, rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is one of the most disabling forms of arthritis. RA affects more than two million Americans, with women outnumbering men nearly three to one. RA is characterized by chronic inflammation that affects the lining of joints, causing pain, stiffness, redness and swelling. Without proper treatment there is a high risk of permanent joint damage. In addition, RA can also cause inflammation in the blood vessels and the linings of the heart and lungs.
Chronic immunosuppression with this purine antimetabolite increases risk of neoplasia in humans. Physicians using this drug should be very familiar with this risk as well as with the mutagenic potential to both men and women and with possible hematologic toxicities. The most commonly reported side effects are leukopenia and/or thrombocytopenia, secondary infections, neoplasia, nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, fever, myalgias, skin rashes, and hepatotoxicity. Azasan(TM) therapy should be given cautiously when used concomitantly with allopurinol, ACE inhibitors, and other agents affecting myelopoiesis. Azasan(TM) is contraindicated in pregnant and lactating women and patients who have shown hypersensitivity to this product.
About aaiPharma
aaiPharma Inc. is a science-based pharmaceutical company with more than 22 years of drug development experience. Focusing on targeted therapeutic areas, the Company markets a growing portfolio of established branded products and applies innovative technologies to increase the commercial potential of these products. At the same time, aaiPharma's research and development organization is developing an impressive pipeline of products to position the Company for near-term and long-term growth in its targeted therapeutic areas. In addition to developing and marketing its own line of proprietary pharmaceutical products, aaiPharma continues to be a world leader in providing contract pharmaceutical development services through its AAI International division. For more information on the Company, please visit the website at http://www.aaipharma.com.
Well, the transports were the tell. Looks like some want a jump on the selling I'm expecting on Tues. Odds still favor the short side. N. Korea drama is heating up but of corse CNBC hasn't spoken about it. The Iraq presentation on Wed and the employment report on Fri. Taking my shorts home.
>>>I really don`t think this is a good place to bring up poor poor North Korea.. Not many really care... If they want a better life revolt..We are here to make money.. Now if poor poor North korea can make us money... bring it on baby!!!!<<<
Sorry for boring you. I happen to care.
U.N. agency to rebuke N. Korea
Friday, January 3, 2003 Posted: 10:34 PM EST (0334 GMT)
http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/east/01/03/nkorea.us/
Beware that the N.Korea drama is heating up. I personally think it could get ugly soon.
RMBS...
Rambus (Nasdaq: RMBS) has been a hot name recently. Last week, the stock soared
higher on huge volume after an appeals court reversed a fraud verdict against
the firm. According to a press release, the company said it was "pleased" with
the ruling and said it would "allow us to continue our focus on technology
leadership." Today the stock makes an appearance on our most-active puts list
with some activity at its near-the-money February and March 15 strikes. Volume
at the February strike numbers 5,356 contracts so far today compared to open
interest of 1,765 contracts. The March 15 put has seen 2,964 contracts change
hands on open interest of just 303.
Overall, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio has shot higher
along with the share price in recent days - from a reading of 0.35 on January 29
to 0.48 today. The current reading is higher than 99.6 percent of those taken
during the past year, indicating a high level of pessimism toward the shares.
The stock remains largely ignored by Wall Street. According to Zacks, only two
analysts currently follow the shares. One rates them a "strong buy" and the
other a "strong sell." (Needless to say, these two folks couldn't disagree
more). Future coverage could have an impact on the stock's price.
In the meantime, RMBS has risen so far so fast that a pullback is almost a
certainty. The shares have increased more than 100 percent during the past week
- hitting a high of 16.97 in today's action. The stock is currently trading near
breakeven while trading volume remains strong. RMBS is trading above all its
short- and long-term moving averages. It has also broken above long-term
resistance at the 10 level, which is also the site of peak put open interest in
the February series (and potential options-related support).
Click the following link to see a Monthly Chart of RMBS since January 2001:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/wire?ID=7037 .
ASKJ is breaking out to a new high.
By Johnathan Burns
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Data-networking giant Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) is expected to report sales sagged in the fiscal second quarter, mainly on tepid spending by U.S. enterprise customers.
The technology bellwether, which will report results after the market close Tuesday, is projected to earn 13 cents a share on revenue or $4.73 billion, compared to 9 cents a share on revenue of $4.82 billion a year ago, according to a Thomson First Call survey of analysts.
But earnings per share and sales are expected to be weaker than the fiscal first quarter, as the company has been conservative with its guidance based in part on the overall economy.
"Our channel checks throughout the January quarter have indicated a soft U.S. enterprise market, thus leading to our view that U.S. enterprise sales will be down sequentially," said UBS Warburg analyst Nikos Theodosopoulos. The firm has performed investment banking services for the company and a member of the research team or their families owns Cisco shares.
Theodosopoulos estimated that 60% to 65% of Cisco's sales come from the enterprise market, with 15% to 20% coming from the service provider segment and about 20% to 25% attributable to the commercial market.
As important as the fiscal second-quarter results will be Cisco's guidance for the fiscal year.
Wall Street expects the company to earn 13 cents a share in the third quarter on sales of $4.76 billion. Full-year earnings are supposed to be 54 cents a share on revenue of $19.2 billion.
"Historically, the April quarter is Cisco's most challenging in its fiscal year," Theodosopoulos wrote in a Monday note. "On top of that, there is the continuing tight capital spending budgets by both enterprises and service providers as we enter 2003. Finally, there is the prospect of a conflict in the Middle East. Thus, we believe Cisco management will likely guide to a flat to slightly down quarter."
That would be slightly lower than Wall Street's current fiscal third-quarter estimates.
The view is shared by others on Wall Street who expect the company to deliver guidance calling for sequentially flat to down revenue.
That will likely keep shares of Cisco trading at current levels without much opportunity for appreciation near-term. Shares are currently at $13.67, up 2.2%, on volume of 43.8 million. Average daily volume is 75.4 million.
"While investors clamor for more from (Cisco), the fact remains that Cisco is doing what it can in a challenging environment," said SoundView Technology Group analyst Ryan Molloy. The firm has no investment banking relationship with the company and the analyst owns no Cisco shares. "The company continues to outperform its peers from virtually every angle and its execution is unparalleled."
-By Johnathan Burns, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2020; johnathan.burns@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-03-03 1332ET
Transports are down. I'm taking profits here in a few as I build up cash. I still think we see selling on tues going into the Wed Iraq presentation.
Transports are down. I'm taking profits here in a few as I build up cash. I still think we see selling on tues going into the Wed Iraq presentation.
10:25 (Dow Jones) Thomson First Call reports that so far, S&P 500 companies' quarterly earnings outlooks have been more negative. The ratio of negative to positive pre-announcements for Q103 has risen to 2.3, well above 1.7 for the equivalent time for Q402. Expectations are now for earnings growth of 8.8% in Q103, drastically slashed from earlier expectations. "If investors are looking for confirmation of the analysts' 2003 earnings outlook in the Q402 reports, they aren't getting it," says First Call. (KJZ)
ENR surging up...
SOURCE: Form 4
ISSUER: ENERGIZER HOLDINGS INC
SYMBOL: ENR
FILER: STIRITZ WILLIAM
TITLE: Director
TRANSACTION: Purchase 105,600 01/29/03 $23.50-$24.60
OWNERSHIP: 2,580,833
The Form 4 is filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission by any
insider buying or selling their company's shares. This form must be
filed within two business days of the transaction.
Insider data source: Washington Service (info@washserv.com or 202-778-1384)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-03-03 0008ET
ANSI....New high breakout
Add color to your life....http://www.smartmoney.com/sandp/index.cfm
Short...
INTC at $15.81
QQQ....Added to my short position at 24.72.
BLTI....Sold the other 2/3 of my long at $6.50. Will re-visit later.
AVCT breakout
WSTL.........Return of the bubble gang. See chart
BLTI continues up....
Sold 1/3 to lock in some gains.
OSUR...
BETHLEHEM, Pa., Feb 3, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- OraSure Technologies, Inc.
(Nasdaq:OSUR), the market leader in oral fluid diagnostics, announced that the
United States Navy Military Sealift Command has purchased 10,000 OraQuick(R)
Rapid HIV-1 Antibody Tests to screen its personnel participating in the smallpox
vaccination program directed by the Federal government.
TREE....
LENDING TREE INC. (TREE)
Raised fiscal 2003 earnings guidance by 15% to 46 cents
a share, greater than the 20 cents of 2002.
EDS....
8:45 (Dow Jones) U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray upgrades Electronic Data Systems (EDS) to market perform, saying the stock price finally matches the risks. "While much uncertainty and many questions continue to swirl around EDS, we believe key risks to the story have been identified and are largely reflected in the current stock price, down nearly 70% from last summer." The firm says it sees the stock trading range-bound in the mid- to high-teens until visibility becomes clearer on the government investigation, accounting change and new CFO guidance. EDS closed Friday at $16.95. (GS)
I don't see any reason for ORB to sell off. No real connection. ORB should have brokeout last week on those contracts but didn't. I'm still in and will hold.
I see progress in the last earnings report. They also recieved a few upgrades. Also hearing CSCO may be interested.
>>>Thanks Bearmove. Long LU as well. May build more of a position.
RMBS opening a bit higher this morning. What do you think we do today? I remember you shorted but then changed your mind. I'm short a bit and thinking of covering here in pre-market. Would you wait until the open or just close shop here?<<<
Seems to me that many traders may want to take profits and move to the sidelines going into Wed's Iraq presentation. I'm thinking that Tue may be a better day to short. I'm personally going to stay away at this point. I don't like the risk here now.
China plays......
By Maxwell Murphy
A Dow Jones Newswires Column
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--If the phrase, "Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me," rings true, investors will have no one to blame but themselves if Wall Street's renewed fascination with Chinese Internet companies begets the same woe it did three years ago.
Then again, if Sohu.com Inc. (SOHU), Sina.com (SINA), and NetEase.com Inc. (NTES) - all getting a second look these days - can attain anywhere near the presence in China that Yahoo Inc. (YHOO) has in the U.S., now may be the best time to grab a stake in these concerns. At least that's the thought behind their recent meteoric ascent.
Unlike summer 2000, when the three made their trading debuts to high hopes and rich valuations, they all now have newfound profitability and improving, debt-free balance sheets to support an investor following. By fall 2000, big losses and weak outlooks had driven the stocks to lows near or below $1 apiece, and Wall Street didn't let them climb out of the trenches until late last year.
In April 2002, a Nielsen/NetRatings survey proclaimed China the No. 2 at-home Internet population in the world with 56.6 million people living in households with Web access, about 5% of homes in the country. The U.S. is No. 1, with a Net population of 166 million, the survey said.
"Consider the market potential when Internet household penetration rates in China start to more closely resemble those in other markets such as the U.S., South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, where penetration currently sits above 50 per cent," Hugh Bloch, managing director of its North Asia business, said in the release.
"A 25 per cent penetration rate in China would amount to a potential 257 million people over the age of 2 in China with access to the Internet at home," he went on, noting the country's Ministry of Information says new Internet subscriptions are growing 5% to 6% a month, putting 25% penetration "only three or four years off."
Experts all say the Net is a bigger part of its users' lives in China than it is here, as are cellphones, because of the ease and speed of communications and the quality of entertainment, in stark contrast to a dearth of good television programming on the handful of government-owned stations. In the U.S., they say, Americans are typically more enthralled by their hundreds of possible TV channels than by the Internet.
Speaking of cellphones, there are 200 million subscribers in China, offering another lucrative revenue stream not really available to U.S Net concerns. All three say their rapid revenue growth, and expected future growth, is due mainly to services linking wireless phones and Web portals, text messaging and e-mail for example.
In the U.S., most text-messaging fees go to wireless-services providers, but deals Chinese Web providers' have with government-controlled cellular providers - China Mobile Ltd. (CHL) and China Unicom Ltd. (CHU) - enable the three to pocket a chunk of the fees.
Relying On China Playing Its Role
Online role-playing fantasy video games are sweeping Asia, and China is getting on board. NetEase has two such games, and gaming was 10% to 20% of revenue during the September quarter, with that number expected to grow, says acting Chief Executive Ted Sun. Sina recently began beta testing a Chinese version of Lineage, already hugely popular elsewhere in Asia, and Sina says it expects "hundreds of thousands" of users of this free version, hopefully meaning big money when it begins charging users in late March or early April. Derek Palaschuk, Sohu's chief financial officer, says games aren't part of its revenue now, but it will launch one game next quarter, on a "low profile" until Sohu can determine it's success.
Even advertising revenues in China are growing, contrary to most of the rest of the world. However, Sohu, Sina and NetEase have all said that sequential ad revenue growth will be roughly flat in the first quarter, due to the ongoing Chinese New Year celebration, but all agree that ad revenues for the year will grow. In fact, all are saying they expect growth from all areas this year.
Prospective investors will need to decide if the market capitalizations of the Chinese Web concerns, currently between $325 million to $450 million, are overblown, given their small revenue and earnings, or does the robust growth and prospects mean it's only a matter of time until one or all of them merit the nearly $11 billion market cap bestowed upon Yahoo?
Yahoo's market cap is about 25 times the average of the three, and it expects over $1.1 billion in revenue, about 25 times what Sohu, Sina or NetEase should see, in 2003. On the other hand, Yahoo's 2003 net earnings are likely to be well under 10 times any in the trio.
On the right path though they may be, the Chinese Web companies have a ways to go to be another Yahoo. Whereas Yahoo posted net income of $46.2 million for the fourth quarter, on $285.8 million in revenue, Sina - as good a representative of the three very similar companies as any - earned just $1.5 million on $12.9 million in revenue.
Short Sellers Not Sold On Story
There's a growing throng of investors - perhaps once-burned, twice-shy - selling the stock short. From mid December through mid January, Sohu's short interest rose 350% to 181,916 shares; Sina's short interest rose 180% to 866,687; and NetEase posted a 75% increase to nearly 2.2 million of its American depository receipts - each representing 100 common shares - being sold short, according to the Nasdaq Web site. Though big jumps, short interest only accounts for about 1.5% of Sohu's float of roughly 12 million shares available for public trading, and only 3% of Sina's 28-million-share float, but it is nearly 25% of the 9 million tradable NetEase ADRs.
Short sellers sell borrowed shares of a stock they think will suffer, hoping to buy back later on the cheap, return the stake to the lender and pocket the difference.
Dan Peirce, emerging markets strategist for State Street Global Advisors, says China has a "compelling story," but notes trading in the three, especially Sina, has been bad since Jan. 27 - a session before Sina posted results for the December quarter - and continuing on Jan. 28 following the release. Sina is down almost 25% in a week, and Peirce says it's "very, very clear that the uptrend since October has been broken on strong volume."
On a strictly technical basis, Peirce says the Sina looks the most risky now, while Sohu, and to a lesser extent, NetEase, have been more stable in holding onto some of their recent gains. Neither Peirce nor his family owns shares of Sohu, Sina or NetEase, and he knows of no relationships State Street has with any of them.
Another way to view risk is by expected trading volatility, so let's turn to risk tracker Barra Inc. Risk, as a function of volatility, can be either good or bad, but this much is true: Our three subjects are among the riskiest stocks out there. Sohu is ranked riskier than 95% of the market, NetEase is riskier than 93% of all equities, and Sina is expected to be more volatile than 92% of the 5,985 stocks in Barra's broad market.
It's hard to say what caused the sell off in Sina and weakness in the others; Sina didn't respond to several interview requests. Of note, the hefty share-price appreciation has put a lot of stock options in the money, and investors may be discounting the companies based on a couple of million extra diluted shares outstanding popping up on the books of the three.
Also, it was no secret that Sina would be profitable, so investors may have hoped for more than $1.5 million in earnings and the promise of merely flat per-share net for this quarter. Sohu, too, only promised investors flat EPS for the March quarter, with both citing higher investment in building their businesses. NetEase expects to report fourth-quarter results in late February or early March.
By Maxwell Murphy; Dow Jones Newswires