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Argyll, I think the stock registration is part of the reason for the recent weakness in CGIH.ob. I like the business plan here and feel that the growth in revs and profits will continue. There could be additional selling as a huge number of shares were registered. This doesn't mean that all the shares will be sold. It is simply a notice that all the outstanding shares have been registered and could be sold.
There are likely to be former owners of CGIH acquisitions who will choose to sell all or part of their shares to realize profits from the sale of their former companies.
I can't predict how long that will overhang the stock. However I see the increased results as a positive that should overcome this selling pressure. Another positive that could soak up selling shares would be an AMEX listing. I have owned several stocks that zoomed after getting listed. This is a relatively low p/e internet stock that is focusing on the profitable businesses in the internet space. There is no doubt in my mind that internet advertising is going to be very large. CGIH.ob appears to be in several key niches that will continue to rapidly grow in revs and net profits. I think the current price is decent. I don't pretend to know if we have bottomed. The stock could continue its dive from the recent $6 peak. You may want to put in a low bid and watch for awhile to see how the stock reacts and whether there is evidence of large scale insider selling.
The overall market may have an impact also as it has been weak in 2005. Offsetting this cautious approach is the impending move to AMEX and any acqusitions or PR the company releases. The recent interview shows that the company is interested in getting their story out to investors.
Good luck, I am holding after buying on the way down. I think this is a nice way to bet on internet advertising. Bobwins
crk no magic here. I am an old banker so my comments are fairly conservative. I am probably not the guy to identify the next rocketship stock. I do have a lot of experience looking at financials and I put a lot of value in mgmt integrity and execution skills. I tend to hold stocks rather than trade so mgmt is crucial to medium/long term success.
I primarily use the reference sources I have listed in the Ibox. I rely heavily on Edgar and the SEC docs vs PR. SEC 10q and 10k list full financials as opposed to abbreviated versions published by yahoo or others. Details in capital structure are really important to microcaps. Gives you insight into upcoming events as well as mgmt integrity.
To find stocks, I am reviewing earnings reports as they are released. I use businesswire.com and PRnewswire.com to review each earnings report. Both have ways so you just see the earnings reports and not all announcements. If I see a big earnings jump, I check the stock out on Yahoo. Looking at price and current p/e ratio to see if its microcap candidate and has low enough p/e. If it appears to qualify, I review PR and go to last SEC doc on Edgar. All this has to happen quickly to catch a mover.
I used to screen all the time but don't much anymore due to the diligence and contributions from board posters. When I did screen, I just used the yahoo screener, usually asking for under $5, less than 10 p/e, less than 100 million in sales, less than $100 million market cap. I also like the industry listings on yahoo. If I find a company I like, I look in the same industry classification on yahoo and they list all other companies in the same industry. The listing shows increases in revs and eps. I look for fast growing companies and see if they are turning from losses to profits.
The more companies you review, the more you learn about capital structure and common issues with financials. Many young companies focus their PR on sales growth but you need profits to sustain growth and I like companies that focus early on profits. This results in me missing google, amazon, sirius, xm,etc. That's ok with me.
By focusing on profitable companies, we are allowing these companies to separate themselves from the thousands of companies that will never be profitable AND cheap. This narrows our focus and prevents us from becoming "tip" investors. These are investors who don't take the time to investigate their buys but rely on "tips" from friends, relatives or strangers. If you don't do your own DD, you will never be able to tell the wheat from the chaff.
As I said, most DD is simply hard work. Reading SEC docs is boring and timeconsuming but is the only way to safely invest in microcaps. They tell you in the document the risks of their industry, the upcoming developments that could have an adverse impact on their business. We are lookie-loos in most of these stocks. We don't know the industry trends and the company's niche within that industry. The 10k helps us become quick studies and form an opinion about whether this company is a winner or a also ran.
The other thing I do is constantly prune my portfolio. I review it every weekend to make sure I still believe that my stocks are making progress and are still the best ones for me to hold. Over time, I realize which companies are doing what they promised and which ones are having difficulties executing. I try to actively cull the losers and make sure that new stocks are at least equal to what I already own in potential and quality. Good luck crk. Bobwins
sthjf.pk Strathmore is a Canadian company that has been acquiring uranium properties. Increasing demand and previous low prices has lead to minimal increase in production. Industry has been living off stockpile of converted nuclear weapons material that lowered prices. That stockpile is dwindling and demand is rapidly increasing as the rest of the world is embracing nuclear as an important segment of their power generation. China has committed to 27 new nuke plants over the next decade.
This is part of the commodities/base metals boom that should go on for several years.
Strathmore is not a miner. They have been buying proven properties that are close to development. Many of the properties are in the US, were explored and reserves proven but not developed due to poor pricing of yellowcake. Increasing prices should increase demand for Strathmore properties.
They have zip for revs but this is a long term bet on uranium prices. My avg cost is 1.25 since and it's hitting 1.76 in Canada today. Did a private placement to raise funds and buy more properties. Bobwins
I gave up on andwe. DCS was supposed to happen long ago. It could slingshot from here or continue to have problems in execution. I think the concept is great, I'm not sure these are the guys to pull it off. I will pass until I can see more evidence of successful management. Bobwins
wade, I think ovti has more sex appeal. I think cell cameraphones are going to stay hot for awhile. Ovti has cheaper version of higher resolution camera chip that will cause many consumers to use their cell phone as their personal camera over time.
Mflx has more possibilities to generate revs but reliance on Motorola makes me a little nervous. Motorola has a spotty record for making the right decisions.
Mflx definitely is more undiscovered. Short term 3-6 months, I think mflx could have more short term pop but I like ovti longer term. Bobwins
PalmBeach....this is the last stock I research for you that doesn't fit Value Microcap formula!
Losing money consistently, finally got some contracts and revenues and LOST more money than before.
Please don't send me chasing after stocks that don't make money!!!!There are many profitable stocks. Please find some!
Homeland Security stocks were hot last year. This one might have some big contract I don't know about but from financials, doesn't look promising. Bobwins
Piol.ob is a marginal player in the Oil and gas business. They take tiny percentage positions in large numbers of wells, typically sold by majors who have too much overhead to make this practice worthwhile. They are buying what was probably the residual override on a producing well. They have an interest in over 500 wells but it results in a net 5 wells so 1% interest. They are not drillers. Typically they buy undeveloped land and hope to trade it for a profit.
Not your typical driller. Production around 100bpd. Production and revs down from last year even though oil and gas are up significantly.
Low stock outstanding. IF.........they ever hit something, revs will zoom. 1.9 million total revs so one decent well could double, quadruple their revs and net.
That said, they are not expert drillers. They might have decent technical knowledge because they do need to assess the raw land leases they buy for possibilities of oil/gas indications BUT they usually don't drill it themselves. Safer to buy the leases for cheap and sell them to hungry drillers. These guys are coupon clippers. Satisfied to make a small steady profit and not take chances. Usually not operator even when they do drill.
They do have a Nevada mine that started drilling in December. Results should be in any day. 18% of that well could mean a quantum leap for piol.ob if it hits 1000bpd but don't know the area or whether there is any indication about size of well potential.
You are always taking a risk with drillers. I like proven successful drillers with increasing production and reserves. These guys don't have it. I pass but it could be a rocket depending on the well results soon. Bobwins
bbotcs...re TGA
Ok, I'm not going to predict $10 in the next 12 months. There is a POSSIBILITY of good things happening for TGA. They have exceptional mgmt; honest, technically excellent, quick to let us know what is happening with drilling, transparent with their drilling plans. I am basing my positive recommendation on their proven track record. Excellent balance sheet with NO debt. Ok those are all the good things....and for me...I have been riding this pony since .47-.50.
You have a harder row to hoe. They have gone up 10 times since last year. Will they double again?
Yes, but I can't predict the timeframe. They have lots of opportunities but O&G drillers are still crapshoots. Price of oil, percentage of success, costs to extract, quality of oil found, new discoveries versus depletion of older, good wells. This all adds up to a volatile business.
This is a fiscally conservative, technically excellent mgmt team that produces fairly consistent results. They shoot for singles instead of homeruns. They take the sure thing. They study the hell out of the possibilities and usually come up with small scale winners and produce profits along the way.
I like them for a long term hold. My #1 holding. Good luck, Bobwins
shmolton, I am out of cash so won't be buying anything real soon. I don't have much pdge because I have been burned by them before and was reluctant to jump in when everyone else was buying. They had a habit of issuing pretty good pr but not making much net profits. We'll see if they have changed their ways. Bobwins
shmolton re Mflx
This is an impressive company. Doubling growth in one year while increasing profits even more and still trading at fwd p/e of 10. The low price reminds me of ovti. Perhaps part of the reason is the 80% dependence on Motorola. As we have seen some of the wireless manufacturers stumble, there is reason to be cautious here. Even a minor glitch in transition from one model to a newer model with better technology can result in increased obsolete inventory or delayed profits. I doubt the market would be too forgiving after the spectacular results so far. Price would seem to be discounting the negatives.
I thought the guidance was pretty conservative. Big increase in qtrly sales after a little plateau but forecasting profits about the same or lower than the last two qtrs. Don't know if competition is increasing and camera phones sales have leveled a bit or what. PDA and all manner of portable electronics seem to be the hottest thing at Xmas time so there should be strength for a while.
The huge growth did cause the company to issue stock in June 04. This has resulted in almost no debt and increased cash. The absence of interest expense allowed Mflx to increase profits even though margins and sales seemed to stall a bit.
If they lowballed guidance and can show increased profits as well as the increase in sales that they forecast, then share price should bounce. If they come in with 7 million in profits vs 9 million for 9/30 qtr, then stock could even go down. I think guidance and especially announcements that indicate they are continuing to move away from Motorola are crucial to increasing share price.
I like mflx but not sure it's going to go straight to the moon. Sector has had a rocky few years and investors may not be anxious to dive back in and give them a high p/e. From the financials, I would have guessed they would have a p/e closer to 30. TTM p/e is 12. Don't know enough about this industry to judge whether this stock will move suddenly to a higher p/e. Good luck, Bobwins
wade, TGA is unlikely to make .60 for several reasons. First, that is an unreasonable increase from 2004 actual.
Second, their output is unlikely to change until they complete the pipeline in Yemen. Not scheduled to be done until 6/05. So they really only have 6 months to make increase eps. Any production that is "behind the pipe" will be unlocked in June or July BUT they will lose the 6 months of income they would have gotten from the wells that are completed but underproducing or not producing at all.
You ask if they can hit $1 by 2006. Yes, they have lots of potential because they have multiple prospects of high quality. Will they hit it?? Don't know because they have to hit exploratory wells to do it AND price of oil has to be higher than current prices. The pipeline can handle 80,000bpd max of which 1/4 would go to TGA. So 20,000 bpd for TGA is possible if they can find a lot more oil. That compares to their exit rate of 5500bpd for 12/04. They need to increase the Central Processing Facility but most of all, hit some big wells or proceed with commercial development of Harmel.
Long term, TGA has many prospects. They have the rest of S-1 to explore, Section 72 in Yemen, which is bigger than S-1 and then a massive amount of land in Egypt. TGA is patient so they won't rush things. They will do things the right way, to get the biggest bang for the buck. Will they max income for 2006? Probably not. They will do their DD and proceed in the most efficient way to explore their prospects. Probably won't go into debt in a major way to do it. There is a chance of a bigger partner in Egypt because the land mass is so large, they won't have the time or money to carefully explore all of it.
There are too many variables to predict eps for an oil company two years out. They do have excellent potential to keep growing because of their proven management expertise and the land concessions that they already have in hand. I believe they will continue to grow faster than most of their peers. I think they will continue to get a premium p/e due to their demonstrated performance and potential. Bobwins
Palm Beach, elec.ob looks terrible. They have a p/e only because of one time noncash credit adjustments. They are losing money in every measurable way. They have a terrible balance sheet and don't have enough cash to continue operating. That's why they sold that note in December for $300,000. They are running out of cash.
In addition, their prospects are bleak because of the a regulatory decision that jeopardizes their ability to purchase services from the established Clec's.
Here is the paragraph that describes their problem from the 10Q:
"We believe UNE-P is the preferable platform under which any CLEC should operate
while it is growing and building a customer base. It is a useful platform for
servicing a customer base until such base has reached a quantity large enough to
justify moving the customers to an owned network. We believe UNE-P's future
viability is somewhat in jeopardy due to recent regulatory developments.
Initially, the anticipated impact of the regulatory developments appears to be
an increase in our costs that may decrease our gross margins by approximately
five to ten percent. Because we know we will be receiving a price increase from
Verizon within the next five months, we raised the selling price of our most
popular bundled service plan by five dollars a month for new customers only,
beginning October 1, 2004. This price increase has not yet had an adverse impact
on the ability of our outside telemarketing firms to obtain new customers. We
will continue to use UNE-P for as long as we can generate margins that are high
enough to provide cash flow to cover our general and administrative expenses.
Additionally, we believe it is important for us to establish a relationship with
telephone services users so that we can
12
<PAGE>
eventually offer them our VoIP service, which should allow us to keep them as
customers without using the UNE-P service offering."
wade re fppc.ob
Fppc.ob is another tiny oil/gas company with good potential for the next year. In terms of comparing it to aspn and tga, I don't think it's in the same league as a production company. Production improvements are incremental and have been acheived by reworking older fields or acquiring existing productive wells. Both Aspn and TGA are active drillers that rely on their expertise to achieve significant production increases.
Fppc.ob does not appear to have the kind of in house technical knowledge to be the operator of wells or determine the best location to drill. However Fppc.ob is a good buy for the following reasons:
1. low float. 7 million shres out and CEO owns over 2 million.
2. Increasing earnings should lead to .12-.15 eps next year vs current 1.18 price. Cheaper than either aspn or tga in terms of p/e.
3. CEO is very interested in upgrading stock to AMEX. He has been purchasing stock in Fppc.ob to help support the price.
4. They do have some opportunities to increase production. Due to the small size, it won't take much to increase production significantly.
5. Based on the low float, increases to production could have a big effect on eps.
6. Could easily double in a year. Longer term, I like both aspn and tga better because of their expertise and active successful drilling programs and their record of increasing production and reserves.
Bobwins
wlsa.ob is a CEO trying to assemble a company. John Simmonds has a reputation as a smart guy who has made money for investors in two previous public companies.
I owned Relm.ob in 2003-2004 when Wlsa.ob was trying to acquire them. I liked Relm because they were providing new radios to Homeland Security agencies at all levels of govt that could communicate with each other during emergencies. They met standards of compatibility required by govt and had some price advantage over bigger competitors. Efji.ob is a bigger competitor in the same field.
Wlsa.ob failed in their bid and wrote off the cost of borrowing money to attempt the takeover. Other than the CEO's reputation, I don't see a great value here. The stock has tanked over the past three years. Unlike the PR's that he has issued, Simmonds has not brought profits to the entities that he has assembled. They are barely breaking even and would have a ytd loss if not for one time items. This is two years after he claimed he could do better for Relm shareholders, which has remained solidly profitable.
The biggest negative I see is the difficult sector he has chosen. Wireless communications and broadband are commodity sectors. There is little protection from competitors and profits have been elusive throughout the industry. This is not a value type buy. This is a hope that Simmonds somehow acquires a profitable company. Organic growth appears good but profits have been minimal. Perhaps this latest sales growth will put him into a situation where he will earn .01?? Even at .86, that means a fwd p/e of 23 but he hasn't even earned .01 yet.
This isn't a value play so you have to view it as a story stock that is relying on the past success of Simmonds. I submit that times have changed and he might have increased the stock price of his previous companies because of the better stock market climate previously for non profitable tech type companies that had sales growth without profits and NOT because he was a great manager. Bobwins
CNBC now has special long range weather forecasters that the commodities brokers use to help them hedge their positions. He is predicting slightly colder winter this year than last. Expects cold snap to stay into February. Supposed to be pretty good at long range forecasts but have no idea if he's any better at this than the Farmer's Almanac.
Ngas and oil are both up this week due to the impending Canadian cold air that has been moving thru the MidWest and is now headed for NE. NE is where bulk of heating oil is consumed in US so will have implications for oil as well as ngas that is more popular in Midwest.
Aspn is down for the year, even though CEO did smart thing and locked in hedges at high 6's and mid 7's at the peak in Fall gas prices. Aspn should have very good results for q4 and q1 regardless of actual market pricing. Bobwins
wade re EGY vs TGA
I don't think I agree that EGY looks better on valuation. EGY looks better on current production basis but TGA has much better future prospects. EGY has two good fields to develop over the next two years but I am betting that TGA overall has a better future with new section in Yemen and Egypt looming large. That's why I have 5 times as many TGA shares as EGY.
Bobwins
TGA continues strong! Driving portfolio to +3% for today.
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
Need a new rally monkee. Does anyone have a site where I can find animated cartoons with music??
Bobwins
TGA rally continues +.44 to 5.65, almost a million shares traded.
Yeehaa!! Starting to get close to breakeven for 2005.
Bobwins
rsgc.ob moving up today +.035 to .80. Supposed to hear more about merger offer. Closing announced as around 3/1/05 but still don't know details of offer. Total of 1.75 per share but probably mostly stock in acquiring shell company. Would be nice to get more detail but will take increase in price!
Bobwins
hweb2, I have no cash. Am sitting on my cans of oil, waiting for the winter to set in so I can start auctioning them off on ebay to the highest bidder. Bobwins
PR today created some positive momentum for the stock. This stock has been beaten down on no news. Some of the stock that was registered has obviously found its way to the sell side. Hope it's just about done.
Today the PR had this statement that I think captures my interest in CGIH.ob:
CGI Holding Corp., based in Lake Bluff, Ill. (see www.cgiholding.com) also owns WebSourced, Inc., Morrisville, N.C., recognized as the world's largest search engine marketing firm, and Cherish, Inc., Clearwater, Fla., a leading Internet dating company.
"We see this as a powerful, synergistic move designed to combine our strengths as an award-winning ad agency with a world leader in online services," said Steven Thanhauser, CEO of MarketSmart. "The Internet has transformed the way businesses compete for market share worldwide. This move reflects that change and positions us to help our clients develop marketing programs and ad campaigns that will help them maximize their marketing opportunities. WebSourced is a powerhouse and together we see great things on the near horizon."
I think the PR reminded investors what a powerful combination this could be as Internet Advertising matures into a multi billion dollar market for all types of companies to advertise into. Bobwins
hweb2
At what price do we haul out the old "taken to the cleaners" saying? Bobwins
If they are selling 100+ cars a month, the inventory before the purchase and now is irrelevant. In other words, at 25-35 cars per week moving off the lots, you can't eyeball the inventory and tell much or tell if the addition of the car lot had much impact. The third auto lot is 120 miles away from Phoenix so I don't think they will comingle cars from the new lot with the original two unless they are really short cars and need to fill up the first two with inventory.
Bobwins
When I talked with Michael Fisher, he mentioned that they recently ran a very successful promotion and ran out of inventory. Had to rebuild inventory so car lots are doing well. With a goal of $10 million in annual gross revs, need car lot sales of $833K per month. At average price of $7K, that would be 119 cars per month or 40 per month per lot. So inventory on website should be pretty volatile. They are probably going to the auction every day and buying a few cars. Bobwins
oildesk, most oil/energy are up a little. EGY has finally perked up a bit from a long slide down. No immediate fix until they announce 1818 shares have been placed in other insititutional hands.
I have much more TGA and so am very happy the last couple of days with move up. Today +.27 to 5.48.
Portfolio up 1.3% for the day so far. TGA move has been caused by thought that latest well is an indicator that company has found a new field adjacent to their An Nagyah field south of a fault block. Low production of well is a negative but company may have just hit the edge of the field with this well. Won't know until they do more study of seismics. TGA does an excellent job of carefully planning and executing. Good reserve additions report coming by monthend.
Bobwins
stock_peeker Please warn us when the cow is flying. Nothing worse than flying dairy cows!! Unstable and prone to dump spent fuel pods when overhead! Bobwins
I disagree with your assumptions. You are mixing up statements of gross revs with earnings.
Original PR stated that Automotive Capital Group bought 2 car lots with annual sales of 8 million. Then changed name to NowAuto and came out with forecast of 10 million in sales and .30eps.
They also give an example in one of the PR's about financing income. If they finance 10 million of their car sales, they are talking about gross revs from financing of 3 million for the year but that assumes it will be outstanding all year long. That's not possible as you point out because the amt outstanding will build up as the year goes along. I think the example was just to show how powerful the 29.99% interest income could be. The 3 million in gross interest income contributes to net income but they have interest expense or capital costs to borrow that money to lend it to the car buyers. There are other expenses to the car financing process that have to be subtracted including reserves for loan losses.
After the initial .30eps forecast they bought the 3rd car lot. Said it was profitable and would be accretive to gross revs and eps. I would be more than happy if they can come close to 10 million and .30eps with the 3 lots. I think the car lots are going to finance the expansion of Navi-com. Navi-Com will likely take time to build up sales of the units and expenses will build up, especially if they plan to take on Lo-Jack. Bobwins
No, no cash. Just bobbing up and down with the tides. Waiting for my energy tidal wave to hit along with some power cable for good measure. Bobwins
My reaction to the filing is that swtx is projecting slower growth in revs but higher profits. Bobwins
I don't recall one dealership per qtr being added. My conversation was that the Phoenix area could support about 8 dealerships total. The time frame was not specified.
I do recall that he said his .30eps forecast didn't include a lot of navi-com growth and was built primarily on the car lot profits. Quicker growth in Navi-com sales could increase the .30eps. BUT we need to see the SEC docs and financials. Anything we talk about now is just whistling in the wind.
We don't have long to wait so hopefully we will be pleasantly surprised. Bobwins
tgb is a little bit of mystery to me. There must have been early investors that have been liquidating. That either means they know that the early projections of the mine economics were wrong and the mine is losing money even though copper is way up in price since they made the go/no go decision to reopen the mine($1 vs 1.40 now) OR there is a big seller that is liquidating for other reasons and is consistently selling, putting a cap on the stock.
I think it's the latter.
I think the company will show profits in 2005 and that the stock price will go up when those profits are reported in spring 2005.
I do think copper may not hold this price all the way thru 2005. I think inventories will continue down but start to trend up in q3 2005. I am hoping to exit by then. Bobwins
Close out your browser and try again. Mine just started working. Bobwins
yourffaiper, You are welcome!!
I agree with nwau, rsgc, bwlrf, hqsm but don't know gzfx, advc or scxc. Hope you make lots of money!!!
Sorry I can't speak Italian. How did you find us??
Bobwins
Argyll, you have picked many favorites here but need to know what your timeframe is(taxable, looking for cap gains, IRA long term,etc), your preferred style(trading, holding) and your risk profile(balls out, can't lose any of this, can earn more if I lose this, looking for a double in 6 months,etc).
Don't want your life history but need more info to recommend best stocks depending on your hold period and expectations.
Bobwins
new2005
I think we need the financials but a lot depends on what q4 looks like. In other words, they have projected .30eps but we don't know if that includes a lot of navi-com growth or if they are already earning .075 per qtr.
If the published financials are close to .075, then we are off to the races and $2 is possible by 1/31/05. I think it will take the first qtr financials in May 05 to get to a realistic valuation closer to $3 but first things first.
Need SEC filing and good financials.
Bobwins
Didn't work!! Hmmm. Will fiddle around and see if I can get it to work. Later. Bobwins
new2005
Here is what you have to do to copy something and have it post like you copied it.
Put < > before your first part of the paste. Insert the letters pre between the <>.
After the last part of your paste, another < > with the letters /pre between the < >.
Try it, you'll like it!
Bobwins
OK ladies and germs.... for the first time in 2005, I'm hauling out my buddy.....
http://www.rallymonkey.com/video/kenindex.swf
TGA +.27 @5.28, will probably fade at the close but still pretty good for 80 bpd well!!!
Nwau.pk +.195 to .905
If I can avoid a big loss in MDF, I will be banging the cymbals!!!
Bobwins
Threes
I am expecting that Tall will miss their original guidance of .01eps. I am also expecting that they will miss their revised guidance of .005 to .001.
I still expect a very positive increase in q4, probably in the .002 range with positive guidance going forward. I think if they had really made q4, we would have seen some PR about some significant deals signed. You can't increase net profits from .001 to .004 in one qtr without some significant deals.
JMHO Bobwins
shmoopy38. I bought some sotk.ob. Looks like they will hit about .07eps for fye 2/05. That's about a 40 p/e. Any hope of a big change in sales and profits to bring that down soon? Bobwins