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Yes, mostly willing sellers, that is why the price was down some.
Today was bad timing for me. My funds did not clear in time to add more at today's prices. OTC BB waiting period.
Eco,
How likely do you or any other longterm insiders consider that funding from Canadian government to happen? And what might be the timeframe hypothetically?
One of the central tenants of the negatives put forth here on MVTG is that MVTG didn't have, or wouldn't be able to get, the money to fund their portion of the pilot plant.
If the funding gets taken care of, that clears a huge hurdle.
There are such games played with OTC stocks.
Not sure if you saw that almost as soon as you posted this last night, somebody dropped the bid to .065 or something like that. And the Bid this morning is as low as I have seen it in recent weeks.
Doesn't mean much, because at the end of the day nobody is buying and holding this stock for .06, .12, .14, .16 etc.
I just found it interesting.
I wish I could claim to be more of a car guy. I love the classics (especially 67-60 Camero's), but my middle brother is the car repair / rebuild / mechanic / body shop guru in the family.
You have mentioned the Jeep conversion to MVTG fuel cell several times, and quite frankly it would be extremely interesting if you had the connections and opportunity to test out a MVTG fuel cell in one of your Jeeps.
Even what you did to get to 34MPG (for a Jeep from the 1980's) is pretty incredible.
The U.S. is so far behind in MPG standards where it should be by now.
If MVTG ever delivers on all the potential it seems to hold, I hope you let my wife and I fly down and visit you on your island. :0)
Ecomike,
Yes...maybe I worded my response inelegantly. Those were share blocks of 10K or less today.
When I said liquidate a position, I was talking primarily about anybody trying to sell 50+K to 100+K share blocks in one trade or even multiple trades spread over a day or two.
Based on current volume, I think that would be difficult.
Some thoughts...
- I don't want to sound negative on a stock I am now long on, but I like to try and stay grounded in reality when discussing Pros and Cons on any investment I own.
- The trend on MVTG is down over the last 12 months. Over it's life you might have made good money buying at the bottoms (2011 or 2012) and selling the peaks...but in general most investors aren't lucky enough or good enough to get the absolute bottom or top. So if you bought MVTG anytime between January of 2013 thru mid October 2013 you are still losing money. So we are talking about almost 11 months of purchases in 2013 that are today either showing losses or have been dead money in what was one of the greatest bull markets of the last 20 years.
- I never suggest "liquidating" a stock like this. However stuff happens to everybody. Who knows when someone may absolutely need their cash back for other things? The high risk with a stock like MVTG is that if you want to invest a sizable position (like me), you are almost trapped until the developments you hope for happen...which could take months or years. Any selling of a position over 50K shares or so would either take days, or if one had to dump out of emergency in one day, they would likely take a loss or see all "paper gains" evaporate.
- None of these comments should be taken as a negative view from me on MVTG. I am invested in MVTG and will remain invested and will likely continue to add shares here. But this is not a trading stock. Being up 20% or 30% is only paper gains on a stock this illiquid. You really won't know how much you gained or lost until you actually sell. You either buy and hold because you believe the story...or you avoid it entirely. Because once you are in, you are in...especially if you buy more than say 100K shares. JMO.
I am long MVTG but JunkHustler is mostly correct in this case.
The "move" to .14 was fake in the sense that it was taken to .14 by either MM's or some small retail investor who spent about $300 bucks to take this from .125 to .14. Sometimes MM's do this to try and create a buying frenzy on low volume, mostly illiquid stocks.
Actually about 10K shares went at .11 and another almost 10K shares went out at about .125. Give or take.
In an illiquid stock like this (for now at least)...the ASK is a mirage in most respects. The real price to get out is the BID or below. So if you own more than 10K shares of MVTG (which I do), to reduce or even liquidate my position would almost certainly mean I would actually get .10 or below for my shares.
I am long MVTG and plan to stick around in 2014 to see what happens.
Just being real here.
Hi. Can any long timers here give me a review of the 3M dealings that I see mentioned in a number of posts. There are 18K messages here and so far I can't seem to find the blow by blow details...pro and con.
Much appreciated if anyone is willing to help educate me here.
I just have to say...I have been investing for 20 years...with varied degrees of success...
But I think EcoMike might be the best advocate I have ever seen for a company, big or small. Kudos to you EcoMike. Seriously. Whether you are ultimately proven correct or not in relation to MVTG's potential, you provide a fantastic service for all investors interested in MVTG to help educate them on the technology. I appreciate your efforts here.
Just to be fair and balanced...here is what concerns me about MVTG as an investment...
Not the 10Q. Not the history of the CEO 10 years ago. Not the accumulated debt. All those things would be taken care of the day any technology would become commercially viable...either completely developed or just as IP.
The concern for me is the volume. It is almost totally illiquid. For a company to be this close to a major breakthough and major revenues(supposedly)...you would think the friends and family plan would kick into effect in regards to shares. Somebody tells their brother, who tells his wife, who tells her beautician, etc, etc, etc.
I personally am not sure what to make of that yet. I have some thoughts, but will leave it at that for now. I am still looking to add shares as I feel it is warranted based on developments.
Junkhustler,
On the topic of "ongoing concerns"...
Certainly you realize that some of that language in the 10Q is pure boilerplate stuff for small companies in this stage of their lifecycle and not unique to MVTG right?
Basically MVTG is saying that they have no real cash reserves and are living hand to mouth...and keeping all options open if needed. This is exactly what they should be saying legally.
Their 10Q verbiage has not changed materially in years. Yet, they are still hanging around under the same name, same ticker symbol, and same management for the last 5, 6, 7 years. And they are in bed (or at least in the same bedroom) with some very interesting partners.
In that time frame they have never acted in a significant way on the dire warnings they list in the 10Q. Am I wrong on that? I can't find any examples where they have done so. I would be happy to be corrected if you have some examples.
What has changed materially though is that they actually reported significant revenue (for them). I am not trying to gloss over the Cons with this company...I could write a lengthy post on them...but reasonable and relative standards should be used to evaluate this (or any) company.
After this 10Q, to be repeating the same theme from last week or the week before that, just feels off key. This seems personal for you maybe?
Teron,
I am confused. I actually appreciate the pessimism you have shared in your past posts. Pessimism is always good to evaluate the Cons of a company.
But you were quite forceful in suggesting this company was possibly a total fraud, run by an untrustworthy CEO, and there was not going to be any revenue on the 10Q.
I am not here to suggest $148K is some fantastic revenue stream, but it is an extremely positive development. To suggest otherwise takes your pessimism...which can be healthy...and morphs it into stubborness and refusal to re-evaluate...which is not good. I took it that your criticism was in good faith. I hope I was correct.
Maybe this time,
Really sorry you took offense to my post. I was not trying to mock you or demean your comments.
The reason for my caution is that quite frankly...over the last week or so I have been the buyer of a significant number of the total shares that have traded. 1 person.
This stock is going to need alot more than me to take it to .30 cents...let alone $5.
I tend to be more pragmatic than hopeful. That is not the same as a pessimist. Believe me, I hope MVTG turns out to be everything posters like yourself or EcoMike suggest it is.
Yes, I agree that any buyout could be swift and leave people out in the cold who aren't already in.
But do you think it is reasonable to be talking $5 share at this point? 41+ times the current market cap? Valuing MVTG at just under $300M?
Don't get me wrong, it is possible the technology could be that valuable in time. But wow...that would represent one of the greatest returns in microcap history.
Not sure how reasonable it is to bank on total fantasy island scenarios like that. You think? I am not saying it could never happen...but it almost sounds like pumping to suggest such a massive return on investment.
.50 cents would be a heck of a return at this point...even 1/10 of $5.
Ecomike,
Actually, this was really a great call and great work by you. I am invested entirely because of a post I stumbled on by you over at Seeking Alpha (that was buried in another article).
The revenue for the last quarter is actually somewhat impressive...if it continues. But even staying at $148K over 4 quarters would be $600K, which would be a PS ratio of 10/1...which is pretty impressive for a company in this sector at this stage.
Having said that, the revenue stream needs to show that it isn't a one time wonder. Also, the volume is still pretty anemic for a company that has technology that is potentially so promising. I would buy 100K shares for myself if I was totally sold on the commercial viability. And I am nothing special. So volume today is not really great considering the news.
Again, I am not trying to be negative. I am invested and will be looking at adding more. Just trying to be balanced. This stock is not likely to go anywhere soon without some massive PR from places like Seeking Alpha, Forbes, IBD, TheStreet.com, Motley Fool, Youtube (of the technology at work), etc, etc
I am not suggesting now is the time for that type of PR campaign...just saying that any real share price rise would likely require some combination of the above. Right now this company is almost a total unknown to the investing community at large. Even when the PR campaign starts it will likely take months to gain traction.
I am not talking about a sleazy pump and dump campaign. I am talking a real educational campaign to the investment community.
This is most definitely a step in the right direction. It will be interesting to see how the next 6-9 months develop
Ecomike,
Hey, when you say mega revenue, any educated guesses as to what that might mean?
Ecomike,
Thanks for the information and messages. I haven't officially joined Investorhub yet so I can't respond anywhere but here. But your detailed posts are much appreciated.
Kas,
I agree with the comment on dilution. Considering how long MVTG has been around (a long time for an OTC stock that never made any money but kept the same name and ticker symbol), they have kept dilution very low on a relative basis (compared to normal OTC stocks).
The low level of dilution partially helps one overlook an ugly 10Q.
Fair enough. I can't really disagree strongly.
The one thing I will say though, is that I suspect the good news (for investors)...assuming of course they get something commercially viable...is that they will sell out.
I get the sense from the 10Q and from how closely they have controlled dilution (relative to what is normal in OTC stocks) that this entire journey is to find a buyer for the technology once it reaches a certain level of viability.
Quite frankly, if this was true pump and dump attempt by MVTG, there would be way more PR and spin being pumped on major investor bulletin boards. Any half decent pump and dump campaign could take this thing to .30+ cents easy. Especially with how hot companies in this sector or related sectors have been running since October. Yet I barely see this mentioned anywhere. Why?
I suppose the answer depends on if one is a glass half full or glass half empty guy with this company.
I will offer a glass half full reason...before they engage in a real PR campaign they are trying to get all their patents in place and get some tangible progress with their pilot plant. These guys aren't looking for .25 cents or .40 cents a share. They actually believe they have a home run on their hands and are working towards IP rights they can sell for $1 or more per share.
I would love to hear alternative glass half full / glass half empty reasons for this.
I had posted a long reply to Teron...but my screen froze and "ate" my post. Frustrating.
But I wanted to respond to what Junk Hustler said and then Peachman said, and tie it into what Teron said. Confused yet?
I agree 100% with what Junk Hustler just said about management being the single most important component of OTC startups. Without question. Market history proves that over and over.
Whatever one thinks of Bill Gates and Microsoft, frequently neither Gates nor Microsoft had the best technology...or even developed certain parts of the technology inhouse themselves. But they were the ones that won the war in the end. Yes, there are many stories where some would cry foul, but in the end Gates had what it took to outwit, outplay, and outlast the other opponents. He won the personal computing version of Survivor.
Many times great technology...the better technology...failed or floundered. Some of it was just timing...wrong place, wrong time...but superior management can help overcome the natural obstacles for any technology to get to the commercial stage and work thru those obstacles.
And the personal history of the CEO should not be soft peddled or ignored. It wasn’t just the Rob Ford moment in the van with $29K. It is the past association with some very questionable guys known to be heavily involved in OTC companies that proved to be somewhere between a failure to borderline fraud.
Now…having said that…there are some questions this raises for me on the other side of the ledger that need to be asked. I know I am pondering them. Maybe somebody out there thinks they have the answers to help me.
Assuming this company is a blatantly transparent fraud as some might suggest…how did they get the Canadian government so heavily invested in trying to help them succeed? How did they influence practically an entire science and technology department at the University of BC? How did they get Alstom or Lafarge to even answer their phone calls? Let alone have employees allow themselves to be listed on the 8K? That could be terribly embarrassing professionally for the Alstom and Lafarge guys.
So what is the deal? All these individuals and organizations have been fooled? Are they in on the scam? Or might there actually be something worth something here?
I have been investing in OTC companies for over 20 years. Most scams are not hard to sniff out. This is one of the more difficult evaluations I have come across. Either these guys are running the most brilliant scam ever…or else they have something that might be worth something someday.
I might have to fly out to BC myself to investigate. Seriously.
Couple of thoughts to your comments...
Yes, I agree that it would be good to see patents issued in U.S. Supposedly the US patent is pending and should be coming within 2014. I will be watching for that closely. I would not classify the Chinese patent as worthless...although not nearly as valuable as US patent.
It is true that Mantra doesn't have cash...at least cash that isn't being used to keep the lights on until R&D phase is completed. But it is somewhat misleading to suggest that only 10% of the money they get goes to R&D. The more accurate complaint...if you wanted to make it...is that since the Canadian government is basically paying for the R&D and lab costs, along with funds being provided by Lafarge...we don't have a complete picture of revenue streams and expenses. So we are left a little in the dark there.
But in fairness to MVTG this is not uncommon for small OTC companies attempting to bring new technology to commercialization stage.
I don't care what complaints you want to make about this operation, I find it pretty impressive that they have been the same company for 5 years or more, same ticker symbol, and haven't changed names. For an OTC stock that is not common unless there is something real in the pipeline. Doesn't mean a guarantee that they will ever be a wild success...but does suggest they are not a total shell company.
And the next 10Q will most likely be worthless...to both bulls and bears of this company. It really is all about additional patents being issued and pilot plant coming online and entering official test phase at this point.
At least that is the way I see it. I could be corrected by some of the bulls or bears here who know MVTG better than me at this point.
I was an early investor in ARMH when it was $3.05 back in 1998.
It was interesting in that early on it was clear that ARMH's technology was going to need to be licensed by other companies in the space. They didn't need to be the winning manufacturer of anything. They didn't need to build out plants and supply chains. They were going to make money from everybody. Owning the patents on the technology other companies need to be competitive is a serious advantage.
That means you don't need to be the manufacturer or seller of everything. You can make tremendous profits just licensing the technology. So MVTG doesn't need to someday be PLUG or BLDP...they just need something that BLDP or PLUG wants or is willing to pay royalties for.
I am still researching this technology. If it is everything the hardcore believers suggest it is, then the MVTG might someday have companies lining up to partner or license with them. It won't happen immediately, but it would happen eventually.
The key to the whole investment thesis with MVTG is whether the technology is legit and truly game changing. If so, MVTG might be the fuel cell version of ARMH someday.
Although anybody investing here needs to realize that "someday" could still be a ways off. And that is where having enough cash to fund operations matters. There lies the risk.
I completely agree there is total apathy with this stock. But that is because nobody knows about it except for a few hardcore believers. The volume is terrible...but that goes both ways. There aren't buyers or sellers. People are not buying this company...and they aren't dumping it either.
The question really isn't about whether MVTG loses money this quarter or next quarter or not...look at the whole sector. BLDP, FCEL, PLUG, AXPW, ZBB, etc, etc. Those were (or still are) money losing companies with stock prices that languished for years, or are continuing to languish.
This stock and company is all about the technology. Is the technology legit? How "disruptive" is it? How far away is it from being marketable? And can they fund operations for that long?
The last question has killed many good ideas and small companies. It could kill this one. Any investment in MVTG right now is purely a bet / gamble that the technology will emerge with some significant value beyond the current MC.
If the technology is legit and does emerge, hanging around doing nothing at these prices might not matter in the end.
Kas,
Thanks for that info.
I agree with frequent-flyer.
At this point any investment in MVTG is purely a speculative lottery ticket. Having said that, I bought some lottery tickets with money I am willing to lose. But raising $500K for this kind of technology (assuming it is legit) should be a cakewalk.
If the technology is as legit as say Ecomike believes it to be this stock is worth purchasing 100K shares immediately, and the potential to buy much more. That is just from a Joe Schmoe investor like me. If the technology is that disruptive, raising $500K from a major investor should be nothing.
So for me...while it made sense to take a small initial position in the technology with money I can afford to lose...my eyes are still wide open to the fact that there are some legitimate financing questions that remain to be answered. If MVTG has plenty of financing as suggested by the bulls here, MVTG management has yet to provide any visibility to it on the official financial documents.
2014 will be a key inflection point for this stock and technology it seems.
I bought some shares recently. Color me intrigued by the technology. I agree that the technology...as I understand it...has the potential to be significant.
I have read all the negative comments (primarily from 2 posters) and I find them quite interesting. It is good to hear both sides of any story. However, while they question the business itself, and perceived personal flaws in the CEO, I do not hear them ever get into any discussions on the technology. So I am assuming they are short based on the fundamentals. And fundamentals matter.
To sum it up, I took an initial position based on the IP value of the technology. Whether this ownership groups delivers or not, I am betting the technology has value to someone. I will add more shares if I see some results and based on the next 3 months.
Thanks to Ecomike for all the work pointing out and detailing the science and technology side of it. I was planning on adding to my shares of FCEL but decided to take some of that money and put it here. I am not a raving bull (yet), in the end great technology has to be accompanied by math...as in revenues and enough cash to fund operations without massive dilution. But I think there is something here worth nibbling at. We'll see.