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If you are serious,
send docbanker a private message. He has contacts with management and is the business side expert on RPRX.
Re: "Are these new Androxal trials for the shareholders and nothing more? "
I strongly suspect these trials are to gather data for partnering (or out-licensing) Androxal. As such, the trial might not really designed to gather the obvious data. [The board does have one clear medical expert, but the poster dewophile is on the female side].
With respect to the nead for financing, obviously a big issue here. They will do something in the next few months, we just don't know what.
If you are new to this message board, congrats. You have found the only financial message board (I mean all of I-Hub) where sanity generally is prevalent.
Re: ZGEN RecoT "not ever a big.."
Strongly disagree here.
I have to admit I have sh** on my face for thinking Q2 sales would beat DeGeneres' $3M estimate.
But I still fail to see how it will not dominate the market within 2 years.
Quite happy being long ZGEN. If they beat it down too much on the recoT sales ramp up issue I might be forced to buy some more.
Re: YMI's Nimo.
Their next "scientific" explanation of why it doesn't cause a rash will have to be "it just doesn't bind to anything".
YMI's PII for Nimotuzumab blew up.
Not surprising considering the delay in results and a few recent comments that YMI considered the drug more for a radiation adjucnt than a chemo.
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/080804/to581.html?.v=1
Kind of surprised the RR number was this low. I though Nim. was kind of a "half ass" EGFR, not just a placeboe.
Re: FDA rule changes.
1) On COI, so the equity stake allowed dropped to 50K. They still can earn their entire income off of grants from the company. Quite irrelavent. And it has been postponed anyway.
2) So they will vote w/o discussion? That just makes the vote even more absurd. Let everybody discuss it, or have no vote at all.
3) If they don't call an A/C for a novel drug they must produce an "action letter" stating why. BFD.
OT: Re AIDs
Wouldn't a reality based sex education, needle exchanges, etc., be far cheaper than what we spend now?
And that's not even counting the human cost.
No doubt it would not be perfect, but I would guess we could cut the new infection rate in half easily.
Politicians disgust me.
OK, back to RPRX, but first..
My flame comment was certainly not directed at you, I apoligise if you took it this way. Actually it was more whimsical because I do not dislike anybody on this board. It is actually quite decent (anybody want to visit Y!)
I do stand by my point wrt risk on the investment side.
No, it certainly wasn't clear to me one year ago where RPRX would be today, or I would not have dropped $10k or so while being long. Sey la vey.
My honest view on RPRX?
They must do some sort of a finance deal in the next 3 months. Once done I am very likely to buy in.
Why? Because I do like the prospects.
Why not now? Because I think I am more likely to get a better price.
Semi OT: Why spell checkers are important.
OK, I know I can't type and/or spell, but that doesn't matter.
Today I placed an order for IMGN for a couple thousand shares.
Upon seeing the review screen, I noticed I mistyped the second letter.
I almost needed some nitro to restart my heart.
" I find it interesting that you don't say cheaper... "
This is semi OT wrt to RPRX, so don't flame me.
There is a very real reason why risk reduction allows one to make better gains.
Let's take some possible numbers.
A) Buy now at $9, 50% odds of result $0 or $100
B) Buy later at $20, 90% odds of result $0 or $100
Which do you prefer?
Many would think A is obvious. But they miss the point that on B you can wager a higher stake.
The reason for this is that you can't place large bets on 50-50 props.
----------------
Seperate Issue:
"You've been lucky (?) so far in that quest..."
No, there is a very real reason why the PPS will drift lower until the financing is in place. In todays market, that is a simple fact.
ELN Re: "account for it sinking even further?"
It's AH. Often these swings are insane, even when on volume.
Alas I was not around this PM, but if it still is there pre-market I would certainly make a trading buy below $25.
Re: 8k
It's a minor revision of the standstill with Efficacy. The agreement had a clause which triggered if E's ownership dropped under 18%. This was changed (retroactivly) to 15% due to the margin call E got that dropped the ownership under 18%
Re: "By transferring shares to you from the broker’s inventory."
If they had the shares, there would not be an FTD.
I really do not think this is a significant issue. More FTD's probably come from op-ex than naked shorts. Still, much can easily be cleaned up by technology, and that would shut up the tin-hats.
Re: "But on the naked short, who can vote? "
If I buy a share that is FTD'd, how does a broker make whole wrt my vote?
Re: "Then Clark will have a field day uttering cautions,"
I really don't understand some of you guys. Somebody like Clark asking about real issues is a lot more likely to POSITIVELY influence somebody than a chreeleader.
The best posters you have on this board are dewo and clark.
Re: T+3 is a joke in today's electronic markets.
Excellent point.
Re: Divdends and shareholder voting work the same way with naked shorting.
How is that?
For dividends it is easy. Every long collects and the short (of either type) must pony up the cash.
But for votes? If you have a borrowed and delivered share it is easy, the person who lent his shares losses the vote. So if my shares in a margin account do not get a vote, that's life. I signed off that the shares could be lent.
But on the naked short, who can vote? The answer is absurd.
I certainly am not amongst those that think naked shorting is a big issue, but it clearly is rediculous that the SEC allows it.
Re: 25%
The goats are stampeding!
Seriously, I wonder if we have any of the "short 'em all" biotech hedge funds getting a little toasty righ now and having to settle some positions.
OT: Re: not long oil
So does that mean I can be happy with my airline stocks
Re: 9.00 pps
I really think the issue with the sleepy price action is the financing overhang. Regardless of whether some here are correct that it can be done cheaply, Mr Market has a very dim view nowadays of any dev. stage bio coming up for cash.
I wish they would get the deal done. I am out now but have decided to buy in. Just not yet.
Maybe right, maybe wrong. But I suspect it will not be that wrong.
Re: MNTA 4x, ditto for IDIX
IDIX now at 7.95, low last Dec was 2.1
Kind of the same story on both, way overblown selloff because of a setback.
Still pissed at E-Trade for not taking my sell order when IDIX jumped up to about $3.50
The median survival in the Advexin arm was 4.4 months vs. 6.2 months in the methotrexate arm.
The 7.2 was not an anomaly, it was the result of multiple attempts to find a small group of patients that INGN could claim the drug worked in.
OT: Re DORB
"Even poor little DORB, with its promising GVHD pill given the shaft by the psychopathic Pazdur, is still soldiering on. (Would it be worth a flutter again, btw? Has anyone looked to see if it has the cash to get another P3 done and NDA submitted? "
They have announced they hired a bio-outsourcing company to run a new P3 in exchange for an equity stake. From the way the PR read, it kind of sounds like they will go nearly comatose and wait it out for 2 years (though they might still be pushing that ricin vacine).
Re: BiovaxID
The trial design stated very clearly that the randomization was BEFORE the 6 month rest period.
It would seam to have made more sense to randomize at time of vaccination. My guess is they needed the time to produce the drug . Perhaps one of the trial experts could chirp in.
And ITT is INTENT To Treat, you must count the patients even if they drop out.
It will be tough to partner this drug. It (and the 2 other ID vaccine variations) are now 0-3 in P3 trials. BiovaxID proved near impossible to make. And I don't think the companies PR spin will help convince a potential partner.
I would guess yesterday's PR was to move the PPS for a finance deal.
Re: BiovestID
To be clearer, I wasn't making the accusation that he did work for the company, it was just the PR read like the type quotes you here from company paid investigators.
Maybe he is just a talkative guy.
I don't think there would have been an ethical reason for termination. Everybody had already been treated. There will be 0 difference in patient care had they waited until Aug to unblind.
Who knows
Re: BiovaxID
Doesn't this whole deal sound somewhat fishy?
Why would you terminate early with a P=.047 on the primary? It is absolutely impossible that the analysis plan would have agreed to that.
The previous PR where it sounded like the DSMB head was working for the company?
RE: "and the Nasdaq composite soars 3%"
Just perhapse Wells Fargo and Delta/American beating expectations in the 2 most battered sectors had a tad more to do with it
Guess the P value.
In INGN's P3 trial, the primary endpoint had a median survival of 4.4 months for Advexin vs. 6.1 for the comparator (N=123).
In order to do some exploratory analysis (needed for PR hype) they gathered tissue samples on some of these patients.
In the tissue sampled population, the Advexin arm outperformed 5.2 months vs. 4.6 months (N=67).
What is the P value that the tissue sampled sub-population was not chosen from the ITT population at random?
Re: Fanny
Why?
Speculators (lenders and investors) proped this crap up on one theory. If they lost their money taxpayers would bail them out.
Personally I say F-Off to these guys.
I have no real problem with the US buying back the assets in BK. At a fair price.
Re: INGN CC
Come on Dew, there was some worth hearing.
On meeting the primary, the IGNG science dude said multiple times "The primary endpoint was survival. Adevxin met the primary in the biomaker population". He read it carefully from notes every time. I guess if you intend to decieve, always stick to the lawryers aproved weasle words.
But the echange between the one skeptic caller and INGN was good for a laugh. Paraphrasing from memory:
Caller: Why did only half the patients have tissue samples collected?
Doc: "Because it can be difficult to get."
Caller: "So will this reduce the commercial value if you can not easily screen in the real world population?"
Somebody: "Oh know, it's easy to get the samples if you know it's important."
Caller: "Uh? Wouldn't a trial endpoint be considered important in a trial? Was this part of the primary?"
INGN: "Let us read our lawyers weasle words"
Caller (Interrupting): "No nead for that, I have your refuseal to answer in my notes already"
Caller: "Did the FDA place a number on how many patients must be available for the tissue analysis?"
Nance (near screaming): "Wrong!!!"
Caller (laughing): "How can a question be wrong"
Offstage, Nance to operator: "cut him off"
re: grandpatb, writers intent.
I think may jaded view of reading PR comes from too much time investing in biotechs
The sad thing is, in the W Nile V. case, there may be some good science behind it. But it gets so dumbed down to go through the media that we have no clue.
On subject, I certainly believe thatwe will have some AGW (global warming). But I am unclear why anybody believes this will cause a serious increase in diesaes. Poverty is MUCH more significant than tempeture in this respect.
Re: west nile virus
This artical is almost incoherant, really.
"If it gets too warm, mosquitoes die sooner, before they can spread the infection, Kilpatrick said. So in southern states the new strain may not have an advantage. But in the northern states and Canada, hot summers could make a big difference, he said."
OK, so why does this the fact that the mosqiuitoe population die sooner favor the old strain over the new strain?
"West Nile virus infects birds, and it can spread to people via mosquitoes that bite both. Petersen and Kilpatrick said it is known that mosquitoes transmit all sorts of diseases more efficiently when it is warm."
Ok, so the virus will be more prevelent in warm climates, but not the southern US.
Do the guys interviewed work for INGN?
Really, there is so much BS in this crap.
Re: where be Crou.
I think "they" got him
But seriously, I don't see why a lawyer is an expert here. The main argument has always been that the short sell uptick rule was archaic in todays markets. With sub-penny trades on can always trivially easy force a low volume uptick (which wasn't nearly that easy when we whent by 1/8ths).
I actually do agree with crou that market manipulation is rampent.
1) Reg FD is total crap. Require companies to disclose all information via open internet methods. How many times do we listen on a comference call and here the big analyst say "I'll get back to you offline on that".
2) Direct placement financing. Much of this is almost direct theft.
3) The Bear Sterns (IIRC) guy telling retail publclly to buy something, while telling private palls to sell the junk. Does anybody really think this was an outlier?
4) How is it that execs at companies like INGN, REFR, CTIC are not in Marther Stuarts ex house?
5) What about the story a while aback when somebody spread the Bear Sterns rumour that they were BK. Anybosy in jail for that?
As long as people with 10 figure net worth don't start going to jail for this, nothing will happen.
In the mean time, you had better figure you are playing a rigged game. Just avoid being the mark.
Can he read the NASD margin disclaimer?
Like the broker has the right to sell at any time w/o notification, and that the broker can change house requirments whenever they wish w/o advance notification?
I certainly would be justifiably pissed at my broker for doing this to me, but when you sign disclamers saying you understand that EXACTLY this can happen I really don't see legal recourse.
Re: "then I question the point of the trial"
Perhapse they want to sell/partner the ex-US rights? In tht case the FDA objection is far less significant.
EDIT: It also could raise the value of the drug in the US due to offlable use. So it could add value to a US partner/spin-off.
BTW, I think the FDA is somewhat scrwed up here (and I'm not in the DNDNr blaim the FDA crowd).
Either restoring T levels is a clinical benfit or not. Take you pick.
If it is, then Andr. clearly has a pathway.
If it's not, then direct T replacement should not have been apporved.
And if the FDA just wants to say they changed thir mind, then the should relasize that they are saying they are intentionally forcing a (presumably) inferior product on the market.
Try posting the whole site where they mention their name (in English) plenty of times, as Sinoval Wind.
So, if the company (who's REAL name is of course Chinease) translates it into English as ..wind.. about 10 times, and translates it once as ..windtech.. you think AMSC is a scam for using ..wind..
I guess if you can only read the pictures you are correct.
Re: AMSC
First, since this is a swing trade board I do agree that the PPS shot up way to high and was a good sell.
But you posted (or cut and paste somebody else's work, as I saw it on another site) on a more fundlemental issues. So here goes a few points:
1) Duh, of course the startup SC was going to be a big looser for years. That does not make it a fraud. I'm not certain when the company ever claimed neer term profitability until recent.
2) Simply saying "I think they will fail here also" is not much of a point.
3) On the name of the China cwind company, you are too lazy to follow the link. People who can't even click a "confirming" link don't sound to serious. The company website refers to itself as "Sinoval Wind Co., Ltd" not some form of Windtech.
Really, once a post has so much obvious junk, there is little reason to take the time to dig out the rest.
FWI: my opinion of AMSC is that it is 2 companies. The orriginal SC is still a decent speculative play while the wind biz is WAY overblown. Since wind is the price driver, a serious correction has been in order.
But the SCAM claim is week.
Re: Why not RS ASAP?
Because you want as much good news on the wire as possible to avoid the potential vulture attack. If they continue to stall the RS I would assume they have 1 more deal to try and get public.
Dew is correct that NASDAQ does not have to act immediatelty (though they usually do so). They can delay themselves if they see a reason, or the company could request a hearing (which would obviously generate a sufficient delay).
Remeber, NASDAQ does not want to delist companies. It must follw rules but is not an adversary here (think listing fees). As long as the PPS issue has been resolved I doubt they would kick a company out for a minor timeing issue.
That said, I agree with you that they should act sooner than later, UNLESS they think they have one last deal to announce.
Re: Crossed bid/ask at .46 bid / .458 ask
I was sitting on 10k@46 (bid) for at least 10 minutes asking that very question. So it's not Scot's fault (I was on E-Trade).
My order wasn't all-or-none (and the ask was smaller than mine), so I have no idea why the trade didn't at least partially fill imediately.
RE: new guy's background
I would guess he worked AstraZeneca, which has brought Crestor to market.