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We either get topline this week or it will be next year, IMO. Today would be any announcement of warrant suspension as well. As usual, we may hear nothing.
We need topline, news or an update. Not just warrant lock extension. We need a catalyst to keep the PPS above trendline. We literally have 6 or seven trading days (until Monday/Tuesday 21st/22nd), IMO, to release topline. Otherwise we will be into next year. I can already hear the blind supporters saying "I don't think it is smart to release too close to the end of a short trading week near Christmas or New Years."
Sorry, there is no way they are waiting to release topline due to tax implications. If topline is positive it still doesn't mean everyone will rush to sell. A gain is a gain regardless of the year. If they are sitting around a table thinking that it would be better for shareholders who want to sell to do so in January so they have the whole year to use their money, then I am really backing the wrong mgmt team.
Need a lot of buying in last half hour to move this and show me there is belief in news next week. Low volume again today.
I would take it too. However, it's a Friday. Traders exit for weekend. A lot of uncertainty on Warrant issue and possible Friday afternoon 8k stating such. I don't know.
I agree on the unblinded part and issues. My guess is that they prepared for that. In other words they negotiated the second extension at the same time as the first. Therefore, they would have been blinded and safe to do so. I believe they mentioned that there may need to be additional extensions when they announced the move to Dec 15th? I could be wrong on that but seem to remember something to that effect.
I believe it will be on the agenda for the ASM 2021. Authorized shares are not changed by the reverse split. I would say between 3-5 to 1. IMO. If we have positive topline, and move to a steady $5/share, 3-1 would be plenty and leave around 460 million outstanding and 740 million for financing growth.
Kind of irrelevant at this point. We have been told by several (those with warrants and those who have inquired) that the warrants will be extended. At least, those who agree. It may not be all of them. So, worst case, a staggered release over several months. But, it will still have a negative impact on share price without news.
I'm not doubting that they know the process and procedures better. That's actually the point. I'm saying they continue to say one thing and then when it doesn't happen they go silent and then say things like DI said...how can you be surprised a long trial like this takes 60+ days for DL to TL? Well, mainly because they told us it wouldn't! They said weeks, not months.
You wrote “ As usual he was very defensive and insisted that the length of the trial meant that 60+ days between DL and TLD was not unreasonable.“
Therein lies my problem with them. At no time since ASM this year and the march to topline did they say 60+ days from DL to TL. It has always been a few weeks, several weeks....never months. Now he says he is shocked you think that is a long time? Like, duh, of course a 13 yr trial can take 60+ days from DL to topline.
It is unreasonble because they stated other timeframes multiple times. So, obviously there was a significant change and that deserves an update.
We probably have 8 trading days to get topline out this year. Need notification of warrant extension tomorrow and then topline by next Friday, IMO, or we hear nothing until next year. That's where we are.
If we get the Tuesday before Christmas, the commentary will be that there is slow trading, no one is around during the holidays, etc. Not a good time to get exposure, etc.
Sorry, meant 8k after the close tomorrow, not today. So, next trading day being MOnday.
Who thinks we will see an 8K after close today with Warrant lockup moved?
And, will it be moved to January 15th or February 15th?
And, what will it cost in additional warrants?
And, what will the exercise price be of the incentive warrants?
Lastly, if it happens, will the market respond positively or negatively on Monday?
That's the frustration. I had a one email exchange with DI this week (I sent a screenshot of Carlos Rago tweet saying we need update or news). He asked me to stop sending that type of stuff since he gets it all day. And, I said if we had any idea of anything that was happening, I wouldn't need to send. I said I have literally zero idea of what is going on with topline and now there are rumors of warrant extension again. Is it days, weeks, months, literally no clue.
No Response.
Fridays always worry me with this stock. I am just hoping for 6PM with no news. Don't want to see a raise. I suppose an 8K with warrant extension is tolerable, but there are mixed opinions on the topic. I didn't want another extension, I wanted topline weeks before. I'm sure most here did. But now that we are up against it, it is probably needed. How the market reacts will be interesting.
The afternoon selloff is another. Weekly traders who don't want to hold over the weekend and MM's are happy to drop the bid to collect shares for next week.
I was surprised to see the updated FINRA short interest yesterday afternoon. Only up a bit to 20.7 million. With all the chatter here about broker dealers asking for shares to lend, very surprised. So, either no one will lend, or the demand isn't really that high. That said, where would the selling be coming from? Someone tries to knock this down or sit on the ask with lots of shares. Strange action, IMO.
I do not believe number 2 is in play either. I don't think there will be any negotiations for partnership or buyout until after TLD. Just how LP works. Can't show them everything. Can't get a price you want without showing them everything. There is too much other work going on. Journal is definite, because they said that.
Well, someone squashed the close, but still a better day than yesterday.
Number 3 is not possible. LP said she would not advance to data lock until buy-in from all 4 RA's. What form that buy-in takes is up for discussion. Appears that UK/EU are good with it. FDA "buy-in" is not often done in a formal approval. It's comments, response from nwbo on those comments, comments again, etc.
"that in this trial the control arm 99 outperforms the control arms of the 3 comparison trials, for whatever reason."
I believe it is because almost all crossed over. So, even though they likely started treatment later than they would have as part of the treatment arm, they probably still got benefits that outperform SOC. IMO.
So, separating the control/crossover arm and comparing that to contemporaneous trials, probably an improvement over last reported data.
In other words, no more confoundment with crossover data. The pure treatment arm improves by an even larger amount from the last blended/blinded data released. Based on historical SOC results, it is almost 100% assured, statistically speaking, for the matured data we have now to be better than the last blinded/blended data.
Exactly
Other reasons could be:
We need to get this right (didn't know that when we said as soon as possible)
We are not rushing (It's none of your business)
Quiet period (no 10Q, no updates as promised before)
Waiting for a publication (Might never get one)
Warrant extension (apparently discussion ongoing, 6 days until unlocked)
Waiting to surprise and burn the naked shorts (no proof)
Planning an uplist
Partnership or buyout (NEVER happen without positive topline)
Wouldn't be surprised to see the morning two cent uptick for ten minutes and then the selling pressure come in. It has been like that for days.
Nothing to hear here:
10:20 am Optimize the Role of Immunotherapy for Treatment of Glioblastoma
Linda Liau
Chair of Neurosurgery, UCLA
Synopsis
Outline the historical and current understanding of the mechanisms of
immune responses against glioblastoma
Discuss the common challenges of designing and evaluating clinical
trials of immunotherapy for glioblastoma
Elucidate the considerations of timing, sequence, and tumor/patient
heterogeneity in developing combination immunotherapy/vaccine trials
for glioblastoma
I would prefer the company to be honest and transparent and follow through on what they have stated publicly and in PR/10q's. They have not been. And, IMO, there was no clarity yesterday. A rumor that warrants were or will be extended again. Then a "confirmation" from DI in the form of an "are you stupid" (not you) question: (paraphrasing) "I don't understand why shareholders would be upset at another warrant extension. Would they rather have topline a few days before expiration and conversion?" That doesn't tell me it was done or not. Sounds like they are planning to. But even worse, it adds to the presumption of further delays in topline. Shareholders deserve an update. And, not just an 8k with a warrant extension and another BS statement that we are working hard to deliver. Clarity, timing they can stick to.
Very easy stock to move down. The silence is scary, no confidence in adding shares right now given that silence. Speculation run rampant. mgmt is indignant. Why would it go up?
From CVM's data lock announcement:
The statistical analysis of our Phase 3 study data is being performed according to a statistical analysis plan that was approved in advance of data lock. The analysis is being conducted by independent unbiased contractors. CEL-SCI is not involved in this process. Once the analysis has been completed, CEL-SCI will become privy to the study results. At that time, shareholders will be advised of the results through a public announcement. CEL-SCI also plans to publish the results in peer reviewed scientific journals.
Our Mgmt was not as clear. SAP was "approved" in advance of data lock?
Problem with any day is that it is really any year.
Ridiculous. Very Tiring.
Looks flat pre-market. I am expecting more pressure this morning. Hope I'm wrong.
Typical. I sold CVM at $14.20 yesterday to load more NWBO. Probably a mistake after all the banter yesterday.
Exactly
Beating a dead horse but that's my point: "We will get there, but we are going to get it done right and that won’t happen if you are in a hurry."
"We will get there"? No more pedal to the metal.
Right...."These warrants got extended to November when the company thought results would be in July, then to December when they thought the end of September."
Both were fine, and understood by most investors as a positive. But to me, the change of course from getting topline out as soon as possible to we're not going to rush, and then another reported warrant extension? With no update as they promised? It's not right and it creates the usual nwbo uncertainty in the share price.
I believe they have been unblinded since early/mid November. So, any warrant negotiations/conversations are a slippery slope. There is no way it took 6 weeks for statisticians to get the calculation tables done.
Seriously? He doesn't understand? So, he essentially told you we will not see topline anytime soon. Or, until the next time they need to extend.
And, no 8k?
When was it done?
Before or after unblinding?
If they put out an 8k and it says they just did the extension last week, it tells me (and the market) they do not have unblinded data yet, which would blow my mind. If they extended weeks ago, wouldn't they need to disclose that?
Several important questions, answers to which, I definitely do not understand.
Only problem is CVM could possibly release topline before us after locking data today.
Right. But what if she extended hers with no addition consideration. Technically a benefit for shareholders without a cost.
I agree for the most part. However, depending who the warrant holders are, and what is said to them, they may be able to get an extension without violating rules. If LP simply said, "I Need another month, please help," and they said yes, that wouldn't be a violation.