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Hi Too Fuzzy,, Bonds
CXE is a leveraged high yield closed end muni fund,, was yielding 8.01% a few days ago,, no fed tax either,, most of the best high yield taxables, are in the low and mid 7% range,, with eff maturity of about 4.5 yrs,,,,,, long term 30yr anything bond right now seems suicidal,,,, 4+ yrs for over 7% in this market seems reasonable to me,, 8% not taxed looks even better in terms of yield,,, I have so many friends at work and in life that are just ravaged by this market the past 48 months,,, looks like 15% or less of stock funds made money this past quarter,,, and the economy is booming? even less than that with inflation factored in,,,, fact remains I know so many people that have lost 70 to 80% in their funds,,, their telling me they need Dow equivalent of 28,000 to 30,000 just to get back even,,, cause their base was reduced so much in their funds,, even aim 50/50 long since ran out of money,,, aim 70/30 or 80/20 is even worse,,, when I look back at all eleven funds I once owned,, the one that whipped all their butts was my high yield bond,, I was just fishing for ideas for next aim portfolio addition and i new someone on here was nto closed end funds trading on the nyse,,, Firebird
AIM-ing Closed End High Yield Bond,
Someone on here was aiming a closed end HYB fund. Can anyone remember the ticker symbol and who it was? Seems it was 6 months to a year ago or so. Love your site Tommy,, visit all the time,,, thanks,, Firebird
Hi Aptus,
What would computers be without glitches? Thanks for your response and explanation. Firebird
Not Ihub
My AIM software does not function,, backtesting,, with historical quotes,,,,, some kind of glitch that needs an update,,Firebird400
Historical Quotes
Not working on any of my software for backtest analysis.
Hi Board,,,
I have not posted in quite some time,, but still aiming along with the rest of you,, still reading,,, I'm amazed at all the variations of this simple idea,, best reguards to all,, Firebird
Jibes,
your work and thoughts are most appreciated,, keep on keepin' on! Firebird
Tom,, you've been at this
for quite some time,,what's the rate of return on your taxable account since you've been at it over 15 yrs?,, APR and accumulative?, thanks
Yes you understand,,, its just another way to remove profits from the table,, hold more cash as the trading range gets to a high point,,, and more shares as it reaches lows,, it works very well indeed,, as you buy/sell every chop on the way up and down more cash gets accumulated with each round trip trade,, best reguards, Firebird
Sliding Scale Money Spinner,
Leaving the PC% at 0 is tough to beat and I agree with your assement. With a large enough PC to start with, anyone could just buy or sell X number of shares everytime the price moved up or down $Y amount. This type of sliding scale approach spins off lots of cash. Example, play the Q's and buy/sell every 50cents or $1 move,, trading 50, 100, 200, 300 shares per move or more. You will accumulate lots of cash! Then add a percentage of that cash to PC say every 6 months or so and start making even larger trades per move. At $5 per market order this is more than achievable. I have a stock game that runs prices from $50 down to under a $1 and back up. If I trade 1000 shares per dollar and own 50,000 shares at $1 and 25k shares at $25,, and hold only 1000 shares at $50, the game spins off tons of cash,, it is nearly impossible to beat this type of system. Firebird
Tom EQ,
What a great idea,, keep it,, and post it weekly on the website,, you have 20 + yrs of data and full market cycles including a bubble,, its valid,, 1969 Firebird 400 ,4 speed ,hood tach ,Liberty blue ,Rally 2 rims, #'s match
Tom
You post the Naz composite with the IW graph on the website. Could you please add in the SP500 to these graphs for us SP500 junkies? Thanks. Firebird
Hi Capitalist,, Adam too
Thanks for finding and wanting to participate in this board. There's a million ways to trade and adjust around a core position. One thing for sure, as long as you can chop up and down in either trend direction, and not pick a stock that goes bankrupt, you should do very well over time. Best of luck always, Firebird
Hello Razor,
Thanks for your work and your opinion on SPY and RYTNX. I resumed AIMing on Friday the 28th. After much thought, the IW in the average range, I decided on a 48/52 split on my money in RYTNX. I set the buy Safe at 10% and the sell safe at 0%. I've done several different studies on my own with my PCA program some of which I have mentioned. The killer with RYTNX is quite simply not to run out of cash too soon. Any control help on the cash side of the equation really cuts the losses and turns them into gains if done during a IW high risk period. Building cash with this volatile issue is a good thing indeed. The next time we enter a high risk period after a nice run up, I'll evaluate my cash position,, and pull a "Flameout" which is reducing Portfolio Control and adding to my cash position. I believe crossing into high risk should demand at least a 60% cash position. I look to add 10% or more to the cash position when we reach that point. 70% or more allows for large corrections. In my work enough cash turns a -65% loss into a 7 to 12% gain. I consider the recent bear extreme, but make no mistake he will return. Reducing the PC while way ahead by 10% or so will also drive the breakeven way down,, almost to unreachable levels. Firebird
My 30 days ran out long ago
JerseyTrader
by Thinkalong,, Tommy get me a copy of this software, Fire
Razor
Suggested cash position for RYTNX with your methos would be ?????? For SPY?? Thanks, Firebird
Green Bay
Our beloved Pack forgot they were playing another professional team today,,, and had it handed to them,, about made me sick to my stomach to watch,,, what a wealth of talent,, Favre,, fastest 3 recievers in a combined group in the NFL,, lots of defensive stars,, and Ahman to run the ball and we can't even beat the freakin' Lions!! Quit it! Firebird
Re-start aim,
Things have got to the point where I can re-start my aiming in my life. I'm currently considering DIA, the spiders, QQQ, Rytnx, and others,,, I sold out of my OTCBB stock and I am 100% cash here on turkey day. Packers need a victory today! Firebird
Aptus
Thanks I will download and play with that feature,, at $5 per market order on mutuals,, it should be fun to try and squeaze every up/down chop for a few bucks, thanks Firebird,,,, I downloaded Vortex but it says my 30 days has expired,, so onward Firebird
ADAM re RYTNX
RYTNX is suppose to mirror the SP500 index except with double the moves in both directions,, its a core holding of all 500 companies and futures/option contracts of the same 500 to double the volatility,, plus it holds a cash position too,, the adjusted ride for RYTNX would have needed a near 90% cash position in 2000 to ride it and buy it all the way down,,, Tom was kinda making the same point with QQQ,,, when the NAZ was at 5400,, then sunk to 1200 over the next 2 or so years,, I doubt anyone had enough cash to buy all the way down,, the Naz drop was near 80%,, tough to start 20/80 too,,, but running out of cash is very costly,, jibes site on tripod shows this with his re-bal aim,, 67/33 and 50/50 lose big in one example, like 60 something percent, but the same aim started at 25/75 in his example gains 49% because cash was available,,, 10/90 with RYTNX yields 7% over this period,, sure beats a 90% loss but I agree its a tough place to start
Lemonhead
I did not get your email to work for shirts and hats,, I'm at fbrd400@aol.com,, thanks, Firebird
Grabber New Aim Program
What is it? Where can I read about it? Can I get a copy? Firebird
AIM stuff?
Any AIM t-shirts or sweatshirts available? Aim conferences planned? Firebird
Tom your strategy
Sounds like a great plan for thr TKE money. I don't blame you for wanting out of UOPIX all together as things get pricey. Even with the huge run up you had, it was on such a small base, that you are still not back to even,, that's one of those quirks of math against us with this or any formula,,, I have not yet restarted my RYTNX, I will when I sell a OTCBB stock sometime soon, 20/80 looks like a minimum at this juncture, you realize more than anyone the endless posibilities for formulas. One of my favorites is using a stock game on my computer, I have it on hyper price moves, prices run from $1 to $50 usually, if its a buck I own 50,000 shares, if its $10 I sell and own 40,000 shares, at $25 I own 25,000 shares, at $47 I own only 3000 shares, its incredible how much cash this spins off if you buy/sell every $1 price move,, I'm leaning my thoughts on doing this with RYTNX, Buy/sell x number of shares everytime it moves $1 or so,, this would work quite well,,, the amount of shares traded per move could increase as time goes along to put some of the profits back to work,, making every round trip buy/sell chop even more profitable than before, wish I could write a program to do this so it could be backtested, but it would work very well, especially with RYTNX since its a daily close price trade and market orders are only $5,, Firebird
What ever happened to the Money Spinner? (EOM)
Simple Re-balance formula?
Just rebalancing an investment with either a buy or sell everytime it moves 5% either way, and keeping the Portfolio Control constant will spin off alot of cash. Lot's of cash! Taxable, but who cares, its not like you had to mow the lawn to earn it. Say every 6 months or year add to your PC up to 33% of what you made, keep 33% to add to your cash position, and spend the other 34% for hard earned work. My broker is only $5 per market order, so cost is really not an issue, Firebird
Hi Tom,
Lot's of money to be made in a UOPIX or a RYTNX, controlling cash bur rate is the key no doubt. Hey, is Jibes still around? This cash burn rate really hits home as his Re-Bal 25/75 formula just burned the 67/33 and the 50/50 in his examples,,, it all depends on when u buy, but we all know the bear always returns in long term scenarios, so we need to be ready. Firebird
The quirks of math work against you
Let's see,, a $100,000 investment goes up 10% this year to $110,000,,, only to fall back 10% the next year to a value of $99,000,,,,mmmmmmmmmm, up 10%, down 10%, yet we've lost $1000 bucks,,, that's why we need things like AIM, and AIM re-balance, etc. In the book when the price falls from $10 to $4, that's a 60% haircut,, yet a 60% gain on $4 only gets you to $6.40,,, the example in the book is just not realistic for most market vehicles, that's why I've talked about RYTNX, it has extreme price moves and comes as close as anything I can find. The highest adjusted close in my example was about $84 per share,,,,, now is RYTNX going to make it back to $84? Highly unlikely since its at $28 after a nice run up this year. If there's something I could change about my PCA program, or Newport, it would be to make the 50% add on to Portfolio Control for every buy adjustable,, I'd love to play with that for awhile, Firebird
Hi Adam, RYTNX
Year to date SP500 is up over 18% or so,RYTNX is up 37.44% YTD as of Friday's close,, so how many stars does RYTNX get in the YTD category? 5 that would be correct,, this fund should spend its time as a 5 star in up markets and a 1 star in down markets, that's why you buy it, too bad we couldn't have a SP500 fund x 4,, what a vehicle that would be, Firebird
Conrad,
I should have said "don't run out of cash too early" which is what RYTNX from 6/22/2000 to 11/22/2003 would have done to anybody not starting with nearly 90% cash. It is the most important thing to do, run out at the right time. Tom's advice of 40% cash for new funds or stocks seems pretty reasonable, since RYTNX is SP500 x 2, then 2 x 40% would be a start of 80% cash position in a new RYTNX AIM guided account. I know 50/50 is way off,, been there done that,, Firebird
RYTNX and UOPIX,
I see Tom where you ran out of cash too with UOPIX a few years ago. After changing the buy/sell %'s so many times I just stuck with a 10% buy safe and a 0% sell safe,, that allows for plenty of action which helps get AIM in the position to return that 7% on a -65% drop. Starting at 10/90 will be difficult and slow but after this bear market its a necessity with a fund like this. 20/80 would be a aggressive approach and maybe even 25/75, but only after a nice drop off of recent highs would I consider that. I see where you used vealies and they hurt you with UOPIX, I could actually see using a anti-vealie and re-postioning my account out of some stock after a huge run up,, AIM will do that itself but a few extra percent kick over to cash may not be a bad idea,,, say an extra 1 or 2% on the sell side once the 4th or 5th sell in a row was generated,, Firebird
Hello AIM Board,
Haven't read or posted in awhile so thought I'd come back. I've been working with my PCA program today. I was in RYTNX for awhile,, Tom actually told me to be careful and let him know how it went. Well as you can imagine in a SP500 x 2 fund I of course ran out of cash,,, way to fast at that,, I've been cashed out for about 9 months now and started taking the time to see what went wrong and why? After much study with my PCA program its clear 50/50 was way too aggressive for RYTNX,,,, In fact the optimum would have been about 10% stock/ 90% cash,,, this was run from June 2000 until today,,,,,,, RYTNX, and funds like it certainly provide the volatility needed to put AIM to its best use. At 10/90 RYTNX would of had a 7% return with a near 65% loss in stock price,, current position would have been 72 % stock and 28 % cash. Tough place to start at 10/90! The key here is obvious,, DON't run out of cash!! Lots has gone on here since then, I do have a little home run going on with a bulletin board stock, I plan on re-running in RYTNX when I sell out.
Hi LemonHead,,,,,,,,,,,
Which reminds me I have a bag of lemonhead candies, I think I'll have one,,, looking foeward to Tom's IW update
$5 Market Orders,,
It is $10 for limit orders,, Still cheap,, Ken
Trading Costs,,,,
I use Brown & Co. and just pay $5 to buy or sell,, stocks or mutual funds,,,, cheap!! Ken
Thanks Lou..
I have booked marked that site. I'm going to stay in the indexes. I got burned on WNC,, a local company,,, switched out to DHF and DHY,,, nice 30 day yields,, except so junky their defaults are way too high,,, just can't see too much recovery in them and dividends have been cut regularly since inceptions,,,,, so I switched to RYTNX in August,, I missed a huge buy at $5.56 as I could not get to a computer or phone that day,,,, now back at $8.01 ,, down 17 cents from my start at $8.18,,, still up over 5% without that missed buy,,, I wish there was a index that moved 3 or 4 times its average,, I'd like to try that,,, When Tom's Idiot Wave moves to high risk I'm going to adjust my stock/ cash positions if Aim is not conservative enough at that point,, Ken
Hello Board,
I am new to this board,, but not new to AIM. I check in and read Tom's site regularly. My life and way of thinking changed with reading Lichello's book a few years ago. I must say I have stopped trading individual stocks and only use a index fund now. I'm using RYTNX(SP500 times 2) for all my aiming. Its beem fun to say the least!! Lots of action with this Rydex Fund. It takes a little calculation as I get the closing price, but I've been pretty close to the correct close everyday. I would also like to say that Cash is King in the AIM system. We've all seen that the 50/50 split is not as conservative as one might think,,,, especially if you trade QQQ,, and got in around NAZ 5000 level. Rydex SP500 keeps me alert,,, and keeping cash on hand is a must,, I use both Newport and StockSystem PCA,, not to mention we can always do it by hand while away from the computer anyway. Best of luck to all,, look forward to reading,, sharing ,, and learning from West Lafayette, Indiana