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Mainehiker, it's capitulation although not to the sell side. Zeev would probably see this as some sort of contrarian indicator.
Gizmo
I'm not buying any bond funds. It's not where I want to be when the bottom falls out of that asset. Bubble in Treasuries?
Gizmo
Could we just continue selling off and end this bear market now? Naz 950 isn't far off.
I need to change my strategy since I can't be available to trade all the time and I am finding it impossible to overcome the trading costs. Busted butt all year and slightly better than even. Anyway on Friday I started a program of buying high quality, diversified mutual funds into wherever the bottom is. Hopefully I won't run out of cash before we get there.
My hat is off to you folks that can play this game and win. Considering the severity of the YTD selling I am quite happy to not have lost money.
Gizmo
We're near the years low of 1160.07. If we break that I'm out. I think I can risk 10 Naz points here.
Gizmo
Got QQQ and SMH for a swing trade to 1296.
Gizmo
Rally fueled mostly by short covering or real deal?
Gizmo
Thank you for your direct and concise opinion.
Gizmo
I am totally confused as to what the current P/E of the S&P 500 is. Zeev, in your opinion is this market overvalued and if so what do you believe fair value to be? (S&P 500).
Gizmo
If you care to check out URI as a value play.
Gizmo
Zeev, I'm a little heavy in SKX with an average price of 11.29. Do you see anything positive in the price action of the last ten days or so? It seems to me that this stock is basing and the selling is being exausted little by little. Is $15 - 18 a reasonable target in 6 months?
Gizmo
Zeev, when do you see earnings and sales growth resuming in SKX? Also, do you believe they underperform or outperform the S&P over the next 6 months?
Gizmo
I have never been a member of SI. Lurked some of the boards looking for ideas tho. I had been successfully timing the market but nowhere near the level that has been made possible since happening onto Zeev. What an amazing market timer! Many on this board are excellent timers, It makes me realize how much I have to learn.
Gizmo
All that screen name did was manage to make him/herself look quite foolish.
Gizmo
Vess, welcome to IHUB, I used to read your commentary on the ClearStation QQQ board and have missed it since you were on vacation. Europe wasn't it? Anyway glad to have you here as IHUB is becoming the place to be for timers' to exchange ideas in this traders market.
Gizmo
Sold all RYVNX. 7.38% x 25k not a bad day.
Gizmo
Cheif, Your knowledge and understanding of the markets are most welcome but I too cannot spend the time to learn the "other language".
Gizmo
"Thank heavens Matt and Bob care about keeping this site a friendly and helpful place for all."
Worth repeating. Thanks to Matt and Bob.
Gizmo
I very much hope your bullishness is right.eom
Looking back to Sept 2001, 1459 provided initial support from Sept. 18 to the 30th and was a small base for that rally. I agree that it should provide some resistance on this rally but am unsure how much.
Gizmo
How many years of bear or bull does it take to turn that thing? That time frame is pretty much useless for trading. I agree that over time the market has always gone up but I don't want to be killed waiting.
Gizmo
jpar, an afterthought is that if the trade turns against you it can be hedged with spy or in my case qqq until you can get out. Stating the obvious?
Gizmo
jpar; Any buyers remorse? I entered ryvnx (2x short nasdaq) with a good chunk of cash and will worry over it untill it's closed out. These leveraged funds can kill you when you're wrong but are sweet when it goes your way.
Gizmo
>Interesting implications<
Zeev, when you get time could you expound?
Gizmo
Clarification is never useless.
Gizmo
Thanks. Those #'s are reassuring as compared to the ones I offered.
Gizmo
You recently suggested the market would take out the lows of the last seven years before we emerge from the bear market. By my calculation the low close of that period was on 1/1/95 at 755.20 (Nasdaq Comp), 470.42 (S&P 500), and 3843.86 (DJIA). My question is can we really go that low? Boomers are still pouring money in, even though it may be going into bonds and money markets currently, it will provide fuel for the next bull. What seem to be knowledgable money managers are saying they can find value in the market at current levels.
It seems more likely that we find a trading range and move sideways. I would welcome a wide trading range,while fundamentals catch up, as it would be much easier to make money than this constantly falling, breaking to new lows affair we're in now
Gizmo
In SPY @86.62.
I'm not watching the Naz but the S&P still has hope of a reversal at the gap 853 - 854. Doesn't look likely tho.
Gizmo
That's a bargain. Thanks.
LTBH "a'int comin back anytime soon"
I believe this is a traders rally and will be sharp in both directions once the music stops.
Gizmo
One more.
>
Chart test
>I think that they should use their time more constructively like picking weeds along the freeways or maybe gathering acorns for fall and winter.<
Reminds me of Art Cashin's saying "Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while." LOL LOL
Gizmo
What broker will buy you 100 shares for $1.00?
Fidelity has a minimum fee of $14.95 for 1 to 1000 shares, and thats for the silver level service. Bronze level is $25.00 for 1 - 1000.
Gizmo
Looks like we're going down to fill the gap on the SPX at 854-855.
Gizmo
Thanks Larry. Hal and Zeev bullish. eom
I don't believe LTBH will be back until they see a sustained uptrend (probably near the top of the run). These folks are indecisive and slow to react. My belief is that the next rally will be fueled by people like you and I, trading in hopes of a quick gain. Not a time to overstay ones welcome.
Gizmo
The problem with gold as I see it is all that supply sitting in the vaults at the central banks. It seems that as the POG rises more and more would come to market, depressing prices. Also, I wonder how much inventory the producers are hoarding to sell into better prices. The only hope I see for gold is if investment demand rises substantially. That would open a whole different can of worms. World economic conditions would need to be much worse than currently.
Gizmo
Considering stocks are always 100% owned there will always be potential sellers. Technical indicators are at extreme levels and should give the latest crop of buyers some nerve. Of concern here are the many trapped longs that will be happy to sell into any rally (me included). Many of the LTBH bunch have already capitulated and whats left are traders, trading on technicals. We (traders) will rally based on technicals but everyone is going to be looking for the exit. Fast, short lived rally, with a rapid decline from it's top IMO.
Gizmo
Anecdotal evidence of capitulation abounds in my circle of friends, family, and co-workers. Most have moved heavily into bonds followed by money market.
How many sellers could be left? Who are they? While the downtrend is likely not over it would seem that at some point here it needs to loose much of it's steam due to lack of selling.
Gizmo