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Likewise, I'm sure.
And a fair to midlding white gravestone may be in the making on the NDX daily.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$NDX,uu[w,a]daclyiay[dc][pd20,2][vc60][iub14!uk14!la12,2...
May be turning down from RSI 76ish.
I'd say the post Thanksgiving returning longs will be interested in taking profits Friday.
And if you put a line(s) on the rising lows, you'd have a riding wedge(s).
About that narrow by Tuesday and Wednesday last week and remained almost that way until mid-day Thursday, leading to that day's upside breakout after threatening southbound.
I would
>>>...there is no correlation between what happens over the next X hours...<<<
Respectfully, no.
If you say that FEW traders observe and recognize and properly utilize such positive or negative correlations, I would agree entirely. Agreed that such work is difficult and rarely (apparently) implemented consistently over time. But in the absolute, the statement doesn't survive. My own successful experience over years belies that.
As I have pondered the general problem of TA and it's several psychological sub-sets, it seems to me to be simply (well, complicated, actually) that few minds are equipped and willing to do the work to master the TA universe to their advantage. What that logically means is that those who do in the end take money from those in the market who can't.
>>>(I agree, going to Mars is going to cost a lot of bucks! But it MUST happen.)<<<
That would be because?
And is there a range of time frames in mind?
Not likely, sorry to say.
Yours truly is an ex TI'er.
..... went long in AH at 46.03...
Good one Lisa.
Sold the second half QQQQ puts at .65 from .55 for plus a dime. Modest gain on the whole ecapade.
In edit: Yep, Paul re SMH. Thanks, I spy.
BTW, I see a sort of H + S on the 3 day x 10-minute SMH, now at the neckline.
I am considering puts long again, but maybe overinfluenced by the success of this morning's closed trade from overnight. The day is getting late, and I'm not likely to want to hold overnight unless a position looks like it isn't vulnerable. Not there yet in my mind. We'll see. Thanks again for the opinion; I like the way you and Lisa look at things, it's helpful.
Sold half the October 40 puts at .50 for a nickle to the bad. (In addition to commission costs).
Reducing risk, protercting the SMH gain today.
Bought QQQQ October 40 puts at .55.
Betting on a stop for QQQQ at yesterday's HOD at 39.75.
That's also at the extended declining trend line on the daily from August 2 and Sept 13.
Sold the second half SMH October 37.50 puts at 1.00 from .65
Sold half the SMH October 37.50 puts at .95 from .65.
SMH. We got a long volume bar on the 5-minute just now, attempting a stop of the downward since yesterdsay afternoon?
Wary of support at yesterday's congestion right here around 36.85-.90.
Thanks Lisa,
And SMH printed a classic gravestone doji on the daily.
Holding the puts overnight.
SMH intraday bear flag at 37.25?
Looking to scalp the puts.
SMH. Bought SMH October 37.50 puts at .65.
Lower lows and lower highs intraday. SMH turned back by 37.60ish resistance three times by 12:00 noon.
Indeed. Two stops there Wednesday, three yesterday, and maybe just now abother at 1569.
Money can be (and has been)made nicely on the QQQQ 39 calls and puts, a dime at a crack. A trader's delight.
And that suggests what to you?
Vs 114,205 calls.
Or maybe not.
1570 ish looks like resistance from two stops there yesterday afternoon and one this morning.
But then you don't do triple tops, much less quads. I get your drift.
>>>How dry is that region of Texas? Is it bone dust dry? Cracked ground dry? Or beach sand dry? <<<
The Houston area has lots of rain throughout the 12 months and so is rarely dry soil. Sand and clay with no stone basement. The elevation of the coastal plain (no hills at all) slopes up from less than 10 feet above sea level to near 100 feet about 50 miles inland.
Paul, the Houston ship channel originates near the business district at Allen's Landing downtown and runs some 25-30 miles easterly (although looping along it's original waterway called Buffalo Bayou) to Galveston Bay to the east.
The city of Galveston is not nearby, being south southeast of Houston, some 45-50 miles. Actually the port of Galveston is a channel between the main island and the adjacent Pelican Island.
The Texas coast in the Houston area has some natural protection (maybe not much)from the Gulf by the long barrier islands, Galveston Island and Bolivar Peninsula, some 100 miles in extent, almost continous. That said, hurricane Carla in the 60's came ashore and did major.
CNBC is reporting Rita winds at 165.
In edit: BTW I haven't heard anything about NASA Space Center, located just east of I45 about half way from downtown Houston to Galveston. I imagine they are well storm proofed.
CNBC is showing I45 northbound out of Galveston as a very slow moving 3-lane parking lot. They're getting out.
>>>>Katrina as a sea storm had the greatest sea surge on <<<
Right. That's the big danger to the refineries. "Even" at cat 4, Rita well could cause catastrophic damage, but although there are some low lying areas of Houston, those are nothing at all like N.O.
>>>PS it is going to be major flooding event for most of Texas.<<
Not likely. "Most" of Texas is high and very dry, and would welcome all the moisture that might come that way. My guess? Perhaps a maximum of a fraction of 1% of the area of the state, along the coast could be affected by high water. Big danger, however, to the major refineries along the ship channel from Houston to the Gulf. Unless one loves paying big bucks at the pumps, he should pray that Rita swerves south to the vicinity of Matagorday Bay to hit land. If so, no problem at Galveston or Houston or the refineries.
In edit: Gasoline here in West Texas pumped for $2.64 today. Rita hits the ship channel and get ready to pull out 4 bucks per. I doubt the liklihood of that outcome based on the current probable track, the the high over southern U.S. being effective in pushing Rita Southward.
CNBC is reporting (as I write) that Rita is NOW cat 5. However the current forecast is to be cat 4 at landfall due to cooler water near Texas. Same as Katrina.
Lisa, whattya think?
QQQQ 10-minute SMA is touched and flattening. Possible invitation for tentatively higher? I am skeptical.
Sold QQQQ October 40 puts at 1.20 for + .30.
Once again, there was the usual delayed reaction pattern after the Fed release, and then a substantial move in a very short time.
Back in QQQQ October 40 puts at .90
Bought October 125 puts at 4.50.
Lisa, do you have a notion about 2:15 P.M. ?
I've been thinking likely bearish for QQQQ, SMH, etc., but not OIH.
In edit: I own QQQQ October 40 puts from .75 yesterday.
Sold the October 125 puts at 5.40
Nicely done.
I am long the Oct 125 puts at 4.90. A few.
I paid 2.70.
TX
>>>I wouldn't hold it over the weekend. Wouldn't sleep comfortably<<<
Likewise. I'm all in cash virtually all weekends, and most nights, being seriously alergic to downside surprises. I will occasionally hold an option overnight that looks to have a coil ready to pop, and when the important indicators are pretty well lined up against a wrong way move.
I'll touch base with you again next week. Thanks.
BTW, I have a long time acquaintance (and good friend)who trades SMH, both shares and calls, often (actually constantly). He is very active on another board (on which I conduct an options thread) and I have suggested he might like to follow your thoughts, but no go so far. He is a perma bull of the first water and stubbornly rode 200 SMH September 37.50 calls from a basis of 1.14 to worthless at expiration today. Blind spot there, having hit some 2x and 3x home runs with SMH calls previously. Otherwise he makes some money on the long side of tech stocks, his port being up 27% ytd.
Another BTW: My favored options vehicles these days are (mostly): QQQQ, OIH, SMH, GOOG, RIMM, and AMZN. Plenty of volume and high beta. Made some on GLW this week; intraday puts Wednesday and Thursday, and then a nice cash register deposit this morning on calls I laid on in the last hour yesterday. Luck counts; thanks Merrill Lynch. <vbg>
Another nice scalp, Lisa.
Unfortunately for me, not enough movement to get a couple or at least one dime increment on Oct options, so I can't play there today.
Would you mind saying if you'd be interested in Goog long at around 300 where it has found support three times earlier today?
Another nice entry.
I've gotta go elsewhere. I get the drift pretty well on what you're doing. Thanks.
Lisa:Present rally is at risk for failing at upper BB on 5 min chart.
Likewise, and the breakout white candle on the 5-minute was on very low volume and has now been matched by a dark stick on much higher bolume.
Thanks, I see all of that as well.
Now a break to the north again, touching the upper b-band.
Are we lookng for the 120 congestion area as another possible shorting opportunity if that looks to be stalling territory?
Are we seeing a 10 or 11 bar triangle developing on the 5-minute?
Did you see that OPEC may increase quotas, minor to be sure, but a straw in the wind? If anything, downward pressure on crude.
Nicely done. Very.
Another on which I also trade (options), but not today yet.
Pray tell what triggered your trigger finger at 120.23 and 119.11.
On the 10-minute I see two doji's (almost) on dying volume, the second and third sticks after 11:00 a.m., surely the entry signal.
The exit point is not as clear to me