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Long Range GFS Predicting Hurricane Hitting South Florida.
I will post the links to the animation in an hour or so. The GFS is the Global Forcasting System. The Hurricane would hit within a week or two
You called it at .055? Great call if thats the case. This sucker is one low floater. LMAO. we have seen it fly up, and we have now witnessed it fly down. I expect it to retrace back up to its .1 base soon enough. Any threat of a Hurricane and put back on the seatbelts. LOL.
Congrats on the call!
ECCI .068x.069 96L invest Models Showing Westward Movement into the Antills
ECCI uticking on Threat of new 96L Invest. Current Models are still coming out but in the satillete images it is below 10N currently. About 8 N i believe which is much more south than all other Cape Verde Storms. Some saying that if it stays south enough it will enter the Gulf.
Here is the link with the new 96L in the bottom right of the 2nd picture. The storm to its NW is Helene, so you can compare how south it is compared to Helene.
http://www.stormjunkie.com/pages/imaglink/imagery.html
I will post the models as they come in.
ECCI .069x.07 1st Time RSI below 30 since Last Septembers Big Run to .75.
Also GFS long range predicting model forcasting a hurricane at 10 N and 40 W That stays south of these other storms and sends it into the Gulf Of Mexico.
Hurricane Helene Forcast Track Updated WEST!
4 of the 5 Computer models have just recently turned the storm WEST directly facing the North carolina Coast. This is because of the slower movement in the storm which is affecting the timing of a TROF coming off the US right now that is supposed to turn it N.
2 of the models - the UKMET and NOGAPS have an eerie look to them right now. ( the 2 furthest South.)
I will post the updated models as they come in ever 12 hours or so i believe.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200608_model.html
Currently Hurricane Helene is a CAT 3 with 125MPH and is forcast to become a CAT 4.
Major Hurricane Helene (115MPH). 962MB. Forcast to strengthen some more in the coming days.
Wont say too much right now about any possible landfalls, but an interesting scenario is playing out currently. Last week we left off with about a 1% chance of it affecting the US.
Now, it is forcast to miss the first TROF which was supposed to send her N, and some Global Models have her missing the 2nd TROF closer to the US.
In particular the GFS, UKMET and NOGAPS have all greatly westward in the past couple of model runs with the GFDL holding its ground on the NE turn (because of the 2nd TROF catching Helene.)
--Now though, the latest GFDL finally moved, and has moved Westward, more inline with the 3 other Global Forcasting models. Which has in turn made the NHC shift their track westward.
Right now i would not get worried, but if the models continue to shift westward as they have been lately, then..
Link to the 5 day warning cone
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/024650.shtml?5day
Link to the 11 PM discussion about the models shifting westward.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/180234.shtml?
ACCUWEATHER forcasting Helene to East Coast Currently. They have it going NW for a couple days then turning back West towards the islands and US east coast. All depends on how quickly the Ridge builds back in and how fast Helene is moving throughout that time. A faster Helene means Fish storm, a Slow Helene means US possible trouble.
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0
ECCI Big Time BottomBuster. Double Bottom at .07 with Yearly Lows occuring . Tons of accumulation occuring as the MM cover their shares.
Peak of Hurricane season is sept 10th! LOL. We are 5 days past the peak and the weak are being shaken out thinking its over! Huge pickup here.
Last time it came down this low it ran to .75 in 4 days although that was katrina, lol.
Hurricane Gordon (90MPH) - Hurricane Florence (75MPH)
NO THREAT TO US at all.
Although the Tropics are definately heating up at the peak of hurricane season.
Could possibly have 3 hurricanes - Gordon, Florence, and Helene all at the same time.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/131436.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/122035.shtml
Trop Depression #8 intensifying. Trop Storm Helene could be announced at next advisory. Current winds are 35 MPH. Need 39 MPH for Trop Storm.
Current forcast is West for next 3 days, then some models have it turning north while others have it continuing north and threatening the islands and possibly US.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/131433.shtml?
Trop Storm Gordon Rapid Intensification. 60 MPH winds eom
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/120840.shtml
Trop Depression # 8 just announced. Possible US landfall because of its southern start point.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/08L.NONAME/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
BWDT clyp to .3 lol. This is a high flyer imo for the coming weeks
Atlantic Heating up. Trop Storm Gordon announced eom
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/07L.GORDON/ssmi/track_vis/thumb/Latest.html
ECCI Moving off Bottom eom.
Tropical Depression #7 forms 500 miles EAST of Antigua.
Tropical Depression 7 is near 20.7 north and 55.7 west or about 500 miles east-northeast of St. Johns, Antigua. T.D. 7 is moving to the west-northwest at 7 mph and has sustained winds of 35 mph. Estimated central pressure is 1010 millibars or 29.83 inches. T.D. 7 is forecast to gradually strengthen during the next couple of days, becoming Tropical Storm Gordon within the next 24 hours. T.D. 7 should track off to the northwest then north-northwest this week, avoiding the Leeward Islands altogether. Some rough waves will affect the northern side of the islands during the next two to three days.
ECCI way Oversold. RSI at 1 year lows. Full STO 6 month lows.
Peak of Hurricane Season is Sept 10th, so we are only halfway thru.
Good luck to all, but id keep an eye out here.
Tropical Storm Florence is Born In Atlantic.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 051442
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 05 2006
...THE SIXTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.3 WEST OR ABOUT 935
MILES...1510 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.
FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...47.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Accuweather predicting Trop Depression - Cat 3 Hurricane.
Later in the week this is set to occur.
http://headlines.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&article=0
Hurricane stocks should be the #1 sector all week.
ECCI currently gapping up .121 x .129
Great post, havent really seen to many people annotating the Light Sweet Crude chart. Thanks, and yes, it should bounce here soon, but id feel much safer picking it up at the 50 SMA. ALthough i doubt it will go that low in the mid term
Trop Depression Forming out in Central Atlantic.
Meanwhile, a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean about 625 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands has drawn forecasters' interest. Squally weather and gusty winds with the system have increased and become more concentrated over the last 12 hours. A depression could form within the next day or two as the disturbance plows westward.
Trop Storm Ernesto's Track Shifted West yet again.
Here are the latest focasts.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
Tropical Storm Ernesto - Off Cuba Coast Already. A good 10+ hours earlier than expected. Forcasters were expecting it to ride along the cuban coast NW, but instead it reformed a new Center of Circulation and is currently emerging now off the Cuban Coast going Due North.
Link to the Gitmo Satillete (takes a long time to load. LMAO. Must have Gitmo prisoners pedling bikes to keep it up. )
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/animate/radar.jsp?prod=radar&id=mugm&type=base&frames...
ERNESTO takin the shortest path across CUBA could emerge this afternoon.
Hurricane Stocks will have Huge Volume Tommorrow IMO>
The Two Biggest of Course Being
ECCI
NSMG
Remember Market closed with Ernesto at only a Trop Depression on Friday
ECCI upticking on ERNESTO UPGRADE.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
TROPICAL STROM ERNESTO JUST NAMED BY NAVY eom
ECCI .15x.155. It will pullback before it runs past the 16 wall imo.
Last run it hit .17 on Trop Storm Chris, this one is supposed to be a hurricane and hit the gulf coast---
.2+ imo
ECCI .143x.145 VERY STRONG BREAKOUT eom
ECCI breaking out eom
ECCI upticking- monster volume eom
Hurricane Stocks - here we go again eom
ECCI - Gonna Fly- Storm projected for Gulf coast eom
Tropics are heating up and NHC predicting Hurricanes in the coming week or two. Multiple forcasting models have a hurricane forming in the Gulf of Mexico and hitting the gulf coast.
Watch these Hurricane stocks here at the bottom as the Atlantic shows multiple places of Hurricane development.
ECCI remeber the last Trop Storm run? eom
Trop Depression Strengthening. NLST ECCI gonna fly this week eom.
Here is the link.
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp
NAVY calling #4 Trop Depression. Link... http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2006&MO=08&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=04L....
NAVY has unoffically Named Trop Depression Debby in Atlantic. eom
Hurricane Hunters flying into Trop Dist off SC eom