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What a pathetic close.
I am kicking myself already because I have seen this price action repeatedly and took very limited advantage of it. Firstly, I was caught with my pants down as I didn't even get the PR until 15 minutes into trading (I was sure it would be next Monday).
Then as I was deciding what to do the price went from 3.10 to 3.30. I bought a few shares there, and set a limit buy at $3.03 It made it to 3.14 but now it's over 3.3 again on very strong volume.
If I had to guess, I see it closing around 3.81 today and over $4 tomorrow. The question is should I buy more north of 3.30 now? Or hope for a temporary pullback?
MF4
Moose and Blade,
What beef do you guys have now? The PR was pretty much a full green light. Good results were seen at 800, so 1200 should be better still.
The main point of the FDA's wording is basically "OK. you guys have proven the stuff is safe. Do whatever you want. Ask and you shall recieve". Are you still looking for a problem?
Sometimes the news really is good!
MF4
Moose,
Didn't the PR state that all of the dosage levels COR applied for were allowed? That would imply that 1600 wasn't asked for.
MF4
nascjay and horselover are indeed correct. I am hoping to pump COR down to $2.50 so I can scoop up some trading shares for a quick profit next Monday. I've been saying for a while now that july 23 is my prediction for a positive PR. I already own shares for that event.
I'm just hoping to get a little price drop this week to trade the move I'm anticipating. Why did I just reveal my hand?
MF4
No news today. Sell!
Yahoo MB Caseydude says reliable source says FDA decision at end of summer. Dead money now. SELL!
Sell now, buy back in a month. SELL! SELL! SELL!
MF4
Blade,
I agree. $30M is enough to keep the doors open for 2 more years. Hardly an amount to get excited about.
MF4
Blade and Aiming,
I just checked out IDIX. I haven't followed the story. From what I read, the drug candidate is DOA. What value does IDIX have, other than cash on hand, to justify it's price in the $3s, and a higher price going forward?
Thanks in advance,
MF4
Aiming,
100 to 1 is different than 100%.
My prediction is: Well, i've learned not to predict COR or any stock prices. If there was no corruption, manipulation, or hidden agendas then I would say the dosing restriction gets lifted.
I am not 100% sure that COR will be treated fairly though.
I am however leaving my big bet on the table.
MF4
Baalz,
I posted this in message 7064. I sold half of my stake in a gold ETF a month and a half ago. It's up 10% since. I've been in COR since 1995. I almost bought some TSL 2 weeks ago. It's up 20% since then. Basically, my timing sucks. And when I'm away from the PC, stuff happens. Therefore:
I just got confirmation on July 23. I have to attend a meeting on some family financial matters in Wisconsin. I will be pre-occupied that day, therefore the odds of the 23rd being "d-day" for COR just hit about 100:1
Mark it on yer calendars folks,
MF4
Ten more days before the FDA gives COR the green light.
MF4
Laddog,
My feeling is the FDA is being persuaded to delay all things Cortex by a BP that wants to coerce COR management to accept an unfavorable deal.
MF4
No news today. 14 more days.
MF4
Aiming,
I just got confirmation on July 23. I have to attend a meeting on some family financial matters in Wisconsin. I will be pre-occupied that day, therefore the odds of the 23rd being "d-day" for COR just hit about 100:1
Mark it on yer calendars folks,
MF4
GFP, Are you pumping again?
I predict the FDA will give the green light in two more weeks. Reason? I will be starting my road trip and following COR and trading it well will be much more difficult while I'm on the road.
Call it "the secret" in reverse, if you will, but I always seem to take the hardest, longest and most frustrating path in life. I've been in COR since 1995, and have suffered through many false starts and needless delays.
Profit from my pain. I have no problem helping the rest of you out. Mark it down. July 16 or July 23. That's right. I will probably not leave until mid-week, so if the news hits COR on friday - PR on Monday July 23.
MF4
Just think - if the FDA waits long enough, the patents will expire. Just what Lilly wants. I guess that's the plan?
I love this government! Tax my wage at 50%, send our troops overseas to stabilize a foriegn country, and delay a perfectly good drug that would help millions for 16 months and counting..........WTF!
FDA PR delay. Democratic redistribution of wealth. Republican blind support of anything Bush declares. If one candidate would come out and just say the truth and be Constitutional (Richardson or Paul) they would win the Presidency by a landslide. Ooops! I forgot - the media will only allow their hand-picked losers to appear to be our choices (Clinton or Guiliani).
Orwell was correct, just 30 years late.
MF4
Now I'm seeing 3,300 volume at 2.75-2.80 Looks like my first analysis was correct: Limited sellers and stingy buyers. This looks like another slow day with an upside bias?
MF4
Nakedmouse: You have a buy price above 2.77 and haven't executed yet? Was it an "all or none"? How many shares are you looking to buy? It looks like only 1500 are available but 3.24 would buy the last 100.
MF4
My level 2 shows 300 shares bid at 2.71 and 100 shares offered a 2.76. No trading volume yet. The next offer is 300 at 2.87
Update at 10:15 Still no volume, but the 300 shares are now bid at 2.73.
It doesn't appear to be halted, just that sellers have completely dried up and buyers aren't willing to pay the closing price.
MF4
The FDA has thoroughly cock-blocked Cortex. Now they can drag this on as long as the BP bribing them wants? That's just great! Is everybody still convinced there's no conspiracy?
Here's my take: If COR doesn't get a clean bill of health very soon, someone should get the situation investigated. If I get so pissed off that I do it, I will sue the FDA and BP involved for tampering and sue for punitive damages that will allow me to buy Cortex outright. Then we'll get somewhere!
MF4
Ampakineman,
I doubt the sp takes much of a hit. Fact remains an announcement/ruling is imminent and nobody knows the timeframe. Could be two more months (is there no god?) or two hours?????
Anybody who sells on frustration runs the very real risk of being out of position and buying back in a buck or two higher than today. Who would risk that?
MF4
Hello? Hello? Hello?
Let me just get this off my chest:
You suck FDA!!!!!!
MF4
Money 4retirement - an appropriate moniker for this discussion.
For those of us that enjoy living in a more bucolic setting and enjoy the simple life, $50K is plenty. There are countless places to live near modest-sized cities where real estate isn't half a mill for an average home where one can have a great life and still go to a movie, eat at a decent restaurant for $50/couple, take a day trip, camp, kayak, contemplate life's mysteries.
I don't miss the city at all. I have a hot girlfriend who enjoys gardening and quiet evenings with me watching the stars in my hot-tub. Life is good!
MF4
If you own your house and car and don't have debt, kids or a credit card maxing babe, $50K/year would be plenty. :)
MF4
Down 8 cents. Looks like:
A. Somebody knows something and it's not good.
B. Somebody anticipates no news on Monday.
C. Good news coming, MM shaking out all of the stops.
D. Random nervousness, everybody in a holding pattern.
Which one is it?
MF4
Ooh. An appeals process. That would take another year maybe?
Cortex can't do anything but be gracious about any machinations by the FDA. They need to "play nice". We, the collective shareholders, however, could band together and demand investigation by congress and generally get the media involved.
This is life in America these days. The only way to truly influence the body politic is to be the sqeaky wheel. Agencies only care about smooth sailing and avoiding scrutiny. It's a sad state of affairs and rarely do things happen for the right reasons.
MF4
Unfortunately, I would expect that Lilly is "suggesting" the FDA throw roadblocks at Cortex. It's amazing that the FDA can throw a wrench lasting 16 months and counting into CORs machine. It's simply maddening.
If the FDA comes up with some obscure reason to delay CX-717 when they finally get around to making a decision, I would point the finger directly at Lilly and assume that they have manipulated the situation.
Behind the scenes, I expect Lilly has made a paltry offer to COR and Stoll rejected it outright. Lilly would rather use lawyers and bribed government officials to steal COR IP then deal fairly as a good partner. F them! IMHO
MF4
nascjay,
It could be JerryDylan's chart read post? Most likely buyers seeing fair value closer to $3 and the shares were too much of a bargain in the $2.7s
MF4
Dar,
Depends on your timeframe. During the Summer, my guess would be a nice open at high 3s-low 4s. Backing and filling on very high volume. Then a daily pattern of higher highs for about a week. Maybe a pullback around $5. More accumulation. News/rumors/anticipation and media coverage could cause another couple of bucks higher.
If the news front dries up and the stock is comfortably above $5, CORs pattern is to slowly drift lower. If it gets to the 7/8 range during the second wave, low $5s will be support it will rally off of. I could see a trading range $5-7 for the Summer.
I do believe there will be a favorable deal in the Fall. It will be a surprise and pop to the $10-12 range.
If you're trading these moves, you might want to hold a core position and trade some float. But, if you buy it and forget about it, you will probably do well. I am waiting for options to trade again, which is what I'll be trading.
MF4
AlDavid, I just think inlicensing is a horrible strategy right now. COR strength is developing Ampakines, period. They are a one-trick pony. But, if the FDA relaxes....What a pony!
If COR inlicensed a compound, they would still have to spend more money and fracture their resources, and the compound could still end up a dud. Even if it was good, they'd have to test it and try to market it, which is not their strength.
Stoll, if you read Ihub, I don't mind you posturing, but please don't persue inlicensing for real. It won't improve the market's perception of COR.
MF4,
Haysaw, buying out Cor at $5 a share seems awfully cheap. I know it was selling at $1 a few months ago, but Ampakines could be revolutionary. I have seen hot commodities shunned before the world figured out their value. no reason COR can't become a hot property.
It may take five years, but if Stoll can navigate the waters (a big IF), I could see COR at $100/share pre-split. It would be a shame to give it away for $5/share now, or worse, to an unmotivated BP that would let CX-*** languish in order to keep Ampa's off the market and competing with BP's drug.
I certainly hope that any partnership/buy-out/deal includes very stiff penalties for failure to achieve certain timely milestones. I mean like $100M in penalties.......
MF4
Zebra, I was one that expected $5+ right away, but when I looked at the last time it hit that number, it took a week or two to build up to it. Therefore, in answering the survey question, I went with 3.50-3.99 "immediately" after FDA.
I do believe that it will build to $5+ rather quickly, although there always seems to be some substantial selling pressure after a big move. Where does it end up by year end? I think it would be higher than $5.
One caveat: After the FDA crushed COR 15 months ago, I had suspected colusion with a BP (perhaps Lilly) to keep COR from getting too expensive and putting pressure on Stoll to accept a poor deal. A conspiracy theory if you will? I still think this a possibility as I am convinced that all government is corrupt in the USA. I am holding my breath on this.
IMHO, if COR does not get a full dosing restriction removal (or at least allowing a usable dosage), I will be 100% convinced that there are shenanigans at work here. I believe that what COR submitted to the FDA is overwhelming evidence to alleviate their "concerns".
I remain cautiously optimistic that my 12 years of holding COR will pay off shortly. I am currently almost 50% above my target holding in COR, very overweighted, with an average share price a few cents lower than current SP. The only other time I had more shares was a month ago when the options were alive and I had an additional 5,000 shares (via options). Sadly, options are currently not available, but hopefully they will be again.
MF4
A few weeks ago, I noticed that MEMY and COR were both at about the same price: low $2's and I was wondering which would be a better place to invest some dollars. I picked COR. Up until today, I had made the right decision.
MF4
Who are the losers that are trying to sell here at $3?
MF4
Volume is over 700K with an orderly small rise. Looks like a lot of people see $3 as a pivot point. Volume tells me that momentum players may be accumulating today and Tuesday or Wednesday, we'll see a big pop in price peaking over $3.50, of course pulling back hard to settle around $3.25.
It looks like $2.52 was indeed the recent term low. Scary how predictable COR pin action is getting. Just when you think you know...........
MF4
Haysaw said:
"As I've said before, I think Cortex will head close to 3.50 PS if the decision appears withing the expected time frame. Of course, if it comes in the next couple weeks, I don't think it will have the opportunity to accumulate, but staying around three would be fine."
I would think the share price would get up towards $3.50 in anticipation of the FDA decision. $6+ if decision in the next three weeks is positive.
I don't think you realize the block-buster nature of the COR molecules. I think others realize it, but have been burned by COR many times in the past, and therefore want more "proof" of something concrete before jumping in deep.
If things go well, I could even see DNDN-like upside frenzy. Hopefully, without the downside aftermath.
MF4
Well, that explains today's move. Looks like momentum players and people reading this article are piling in for a double or triple by Fall.
That, and now that options are not available on COR, the only way to play this is by being long.
MF4
It looks like COR trading has shaken out the weak hands and momo's and is now back to a normal pattern of small buys from believers in the story.
The short term story is fear of missing out on the rally leading up to and following expected dosing clearance from the FDA. I know the worrywarts will argue that the FDA won't co-operate just because, but the clock is ticking and each passing day brings us closer to the binary event, which can occur at any moment.
Only four days left to play with the options, which will provide upward pressure on the common stock starting next Monday.
MF4
Davidal: Need I remind everyone that any partnership must include some incentive/punishment so that the company that licenses CX717, isn't able to let it sit on a shelf for ten years like Organon and Servier did.
MF4
Ampakineman,
I believe there is no way we test $2 before FDA. In fact, earlier today, I was watching $2.52 being defended, as they say, and in my mind, I called it as the down move's low.
You can scoff, as I'm sure you will, but I think the low has been set today (at least pre-FDA) at $2.52. Next week it slowly moves higher from here, IMHO. Once the options expire, there's no other way to play COR.
The bottom line is the science is compelling. The histo findings have been explained. We have waited 14+ months and counting. There is lots of BP interest. The binary event (FDA) is the next major hurdle and the prospects look very good.
As far as management credibility goes. Stoll has only been here a few years. A lot of the past mistakes were with different management. Stoll has pretty much delivered what he has said since he's been around and Cortex's house has never looked better.
If the FDA throws another roadblock up, there will be a big drop and COR will be running on fumes, but it will comeback and that would be the MOABO. But, should the FDA do the right thing and remove any dosing restrictions, COR is probably a 4-bagger from here by years end. These are compelling odds. I only wish I could load up on August options, because I would back the truck up. In another week, the only way to play the upside is by being long the stock.
In a few months, anything sub-$3 will look like a steal, IMHO.
MF4