You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes, you get want you need. Rolling Stones
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midtier, I too enjoy your posts here and believe they bring a more balanced picture in our "rose garden" as some here like too portray it. It is NOT all roses and that needs to be pointed out as well. Although I disagreed with you in the past about JCG and the ROO timeline your perception of these rumored deal is spot on IMO. Keep up the posting and do not be intimidated by the complaints by those who only see beautiful roses in the garden and no thorns.
Art, I am in complete agreement with your forcast of any ERHC / Addax deal not taking place in the near term. I posted the odds as for this to occur as a long shot and have NEVER believed in any deal before drilling. As has been said many times here, any deal before drilling does not make sense. And as Judge Judy says, if it does not make sense, it is not true. I do not believe for a minute that MarkG has or was minipulative, I believe what he said was what he heard. The problem is with the birdies, sometimes they are "fowl" creatures. Haven't you ever had bird poop on your car? With that note of crap, I will close and hope this post does not get deleted, for fowl language.
AA, I would love that, but the volume indicates nothing is that close. There would be too many people involved for not to be somewhat of a leak and thereby increasing the volume. The volume has been anemic lately with no sign of life.
Doubleaa, with that in mind when do you think the "official" announcement will be made. What are "your odds" on when?
Much of the discussion here has revolved around if and when a deal between ERHC and Addax would occur. Except for my recently deleted post for no good reason, no one has speculated on the odds of such event occurring. Certainly putting theoretical "odds" on this event is very difficult and would be a guess at best. But coming up with such odds and listing them here would definitely be on topic and not spam. Would anyone else venture a guess as to the odds of an ERHC / Addax deal?
What would your odds be for the deal to occur as follows?
On or before April 30 ----- already past
May 1 to May 14 ------ ?? to 1
May 15 to May 31 ----- ?? to 1
In June ---- ?? to 1
Between July 1 and Sept 30 ----- ?? to 1
Between Oct 1 and Dec 31 ------- ?? to 1
Not in 2009 ------ ??
I know most here have to have some "gamble" in them to be invested in ERHC. But putting a number on the "odds" for an event to occur like the ERHC / Addax deal will give you a better feel of how and when you think things will occur in the future. Doing this will make you seriously consider how you really feel about the future of ERHC.
The "odds" for an ERHC/Addax deal were posted on the the JDZ board a couple of weeks ago.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=37317151
One can see the on or before April 30 already lost and the strong favorite was Not in 2009 at even money. That would mean no deal for at least eight months. Could the bookies be wrong?
Hunter, good timing on your buy, in fact great timing. I did agree that I would be buying in the 37 cent range if I had dry powder and think any shares purchased under 40 will prove winners. But let me add, I would be very careful in trading these shares again even if the SP shoots up to 50 by next Friday, which I think it may. Fallbacks are going to few and farther between as we approach drilling and now that is only months away. Be careful and try to stay long. IMO, you are a better (and smarter trader) then TAtrader. However, you both need do a spell check as both of your spelling and grammar is awful.
Umbra, I think you should create a TV show over in England called Deal or No Deal. Give away one million to the contestant who can go all the way. It might be a hit, especially if you could get a good MC like Simon Cowell. Or would Simon be too much of an azzhole? I can help you finance it with the millions I make (you as well) from the ERHC/Addax deal which should be announced any day now. But don't hold your breath, as I believe I just heard from my palm reader, NO DEAL! (yes, the old fat lady with red hair and a thick European accent)
midtier, I agree with you rumor! Especially the fact that drilling will be one month closer. But keep in mind since May is such a loooong month (32 days) it may take an extra long time to get to May 32. BTW you did not indicate a year, is it 2010 or 2011?
DeGen
Ps. I think we go to the same Palm reader. Is she old and fat with red hair and a thick European accent?
Pss: I may have to post odds on that rumor over on the JDZ board. Please note, those that took the bet that the ERHC/Addax would be announced or leaked by May 1, LOST, the odds were posted at 4 to 1.
TA, so you think ERHC has no long term value and will end at zero? I bet you are wrong and will be proved wrong after the drilling and/or after the buy in/out. I would also bet just about everyone here disagrees, but we are a dime a dozen.
No one any right to be critical of what MarkG posted. I for appreciate any and all of Mark's post and am VERY glad he posts what he does. Thanks again Mark you are a fine asset to these boards.
Loneclone, excellent post. Different strokes for different folks. Both ways of investing can make money. Would TA chatise Buffet for some of his bag holdings like he does to me? I strongly believe in the long term potential in ERHC and will stay long and not day trade. Not jumping back in at today's extremely good value price at 37ish is a fools game. Any day we could double (or more) overnight and some of those day traders will miss out. At least Hunter is smart enough to want to get back in at these prices, but might have to pay the ask which is expensive with the wide bid/ask spread. That is why I do not day trade and miss the buy in/out price jump.
May Day, May Day --- I found the leak but I do not think it has anything to do with MarkG. As a landlord I get calls from tenants all the time and in the past two days both of the calls both concerned leaks, first a washing machine that was leaking and then a hot water heater that was leaking. The items were replaced and the the leak problem solved. But getting back to any leaks around here, it appeared the plumber could not find them but still had to charge a service call fee. Was it an incompetent plumber or an imaginary leak? Still too early to tell. Maybe next week there will be a "gusher" of a leak and we will all be happy (but not if you are the landlord).
Is tomorrow April 31? Isn't that the deadline for the deal?
Hunter, it looks like today was a very difficult day to get "cheap" shares. The bid/ask spread was mostly 36-38 where you would have to pay 38 (or higher) to pickup your shares. The buys were few and far between so far, so my guess would be you made no buys so far today.
What I have difficulty in understanding is when a trader holds a core position and and then has some trading shares. Let's say the trading shares represent 25% of the total. When you sell the trading shares do you hope the share price goes up or down? If if the SP goes up, you regret selling the trading shares. If the SP goes down, you core position (which is much more than what you just sold) loses value and you are far worse off than before. It appears you are trying to hedge your bets but in a no win situation.
Now when Hunter trades, he is all in or all out, which appears to be the better way to do it if you are a trader. If I was a trader I would commit one way or the other and not hold back, especially a core share amount which represents a greater proportion of the investment. But with my large position, to go all in or all out on days I think the stock should be traded would have to much of an affect on the market, plus I do not want short term capital gains to pay because of the high rate.
Hunter, I already posted when I was "green" just check my old posts if you really want to know. You kown one does not stay green forever if the share price drops precipatiously like it did yesterday.
I concur with your buying back in today as I believe the fallback to 35 was too severe and there will likely be a recovery to 40. Any shares you pickup in the 36-37 range will be good "trading" buys. I wish I had some more dry powder at this time to put more shares in my bag. Let me know if you manage to pick up all 100k shares since I realize you are smart buyer and will be going in at bid not ask the same way I buy. Good luck.
DeGen
Ps. I hope you have Level II
Hunter, you must have a guilty conscience. My posts indicate I am not a "trader" like you, I am what you and Trader have defined as a "bag holder" like most of those here. This is a personal investment decision and sometimes you are right and sometimes I am right. I have not attacked you personally unless you feel questioning an investment style like day trading is an attack. However, I cannot say the same for you, you continually bring up one of my old investments (WG) which I was snake bitten by a midnight passing of the IGaming Bill by Congress in a very unethical way by Congress. What happened was unexpected by most experts and resulted in the share price falling 75% overnight. The fact you were out of the stock when it happened was lucky on your part, the fact that Congress did such a unethical thing was unlucky on my part.
But the fact that you bring it up over and over and over and over again is why your posts are considered personal attacks while my posts are comments on investing style, and nothing to do with you personally. Why don't you drop the WG past and discuss investing in the future of ERHC. I appreciate your insights on where the stock price will go in the future, but there is no need to keep bringing up the past. That is why you get deleted and I don't. This board is not about WG, don't you get that?
Ps: If you are so confident about your buys and sells, please in the future post exact times, prices and number of shares. What you have posted in the past has been very vague.
OT I have had "Restore Lens" installed about two years ago because of cataracts. It took many months for better vision (20/30ish) but no glasses for distance or reading. However I need cheaters for mid vision, like the computer (2-6 ft away). Overall I am happy, but was hoping for complete good vision. I would still recommend it.
Troy you are correct, the fact that I stated the deal was "delayed" was wrong. If there is not a deal in the "works", how can it be delayed. I should have said the low volume was an indication that it is unlikely there is a deal coming soon. No delay, just not coming soon. As I continue to believe, no deal will happen prior to drilling and the low volume is a good indication of that.
As the volume slows down and the share price softens a little, this is a very strong indication any ERHC/Addax deal is delayed. This is good because most agree any deal would be considerably better after drilling than if made now.
On another front, I would hope we get some sort of update on the arrival of the DP in the next few weeks to give a little boost both in the share price and our confidence in holding (as in holding the bag) all of our shares. As a bag holder and non trader, I have to keep the faith during those times when nothing is happening and the share price drifts lower.
Any detectives out their turning over rocks to get information on the DP or AA?
I realize everyone is interested in whether there will be a deal on the table from Addax. However I think we should focus our attention on the MOST important thing that matters in the near future. That is EXACTLY when the DP and the AA will arrive in our JDZ Blocks. The location of the AA has been closely tracked, but has anyone tried to find out exactly how long Kosmos will be using the AA and whether Kosmos will use the options? Is anyone trying to get inside information from Kosmos or Kosmos employees or the guys on the rigs? The same questions also need to be applied to the DP, is anyone trying to get inside information from the present operator of the DP or the employees or the guys on the rigs? With all of the "snooping" ability here I would think someone would be able to contact (email) a rigger (or his friends/family) on one of these rigs to see if they know the future plans of the rigs or when current drilling operations may be ending.
So, who can find out more about the DP and AA? Any good detectives out there?
CRYP is still alive and doing very well. Plus it is near a bottom, has a nice dividend and online gambling is alive and well. Online gambling may get a reprieve from Congress if Pelosi can be quieted. They need the tax money and gambling is always a good source. But it is still a big gamble as Pelosi is a tough nut to crack. Have I said Fuxk Frisk lately?
Ps: I do plan to invest in CRYP after ERHC but it may be years away. I waiting for the buy out (by China or the American biggies). In the meantime the ERHC share price has no where to go but up!
MarkG has a source that expects the rig(s) to arrive in the JDZ in the 3rd Q which is what was reported in one of those African news agency reports. With two different sources now it is looking real good for early drilling. IMO a deal in less and less likely with drilling only five months away (or even sooner). I would also think the SP will begin to react to this drilling news when an official announcement is made. Into the 50s soon.
peteTX, the "bookie" who made up those odds was my gut feelings on how I feel about any upcoming deal involving Addax. As you can see I do not see a deal coming very soon. BTW there are many exotic bets to be made but they are mostly found online. And I did actually bet (win) $150 when Obama won the election.
I am satisfied that the SP held in the mid/low 40s. It looks like it it plateauing like it did in the low 30s before it jumped to the 40s. I think we need some more volume to push the SP into the 50s but we may get it before the end of the week. I was afraid we would fall back to the 30s as disappointment mounted in not seeing the deal leak out, but I think most realize any deal is a longshot before drilling. Keep in mind the odds that sportbook.com had posted for a while, those bookies know what they are talking about and usually get their numbers (odds) correct.
In any case, we continue to get closer and closer to drilling and the excitement will continue to mount as we find out when the drilling will begin.
All this talk over on the ERHC board about exit strategy. IMO our final faith and exit strategy is one and the same. Someday there will be a buy out by a large oil company. Probably a good chuck cash and the rest shares of that company (X?). This will be the end of our little company and we will have all exited as we have been forced to sell. Whether we stay in the new stock will be up to each of us but this will be a much bigger company and not the same kind of investment we have here. Anyone who sells before the BIG event will truly miss the boat. I staying with this ship until that happens, and it will happen! Although sportsbook.com took down the betting odds that does not mean the event will still not occur.
Krom, sportsbet.com immediately took down the ERHC/ADDAX odds as soon as they saw that I posted them on IHUB. They felt there were a lot of sharp investors who would take advantage of the long odds for an early deal even though "the bookies" thought that no deal would be consummated early.
DeGen
Ps: I pushed on the Celtic bet, but when I tried to bet on the ERHC/ADDAX "no deal this year at even money, the sportsbook no longer had the line posted. The betting limit is only $100 on exotic bets like this. I did win my Obama bet to be President at +150 when the primary was still be contested by Hillary.
Pss: Do you really believe this stuff?
I realize everyone is interested in whether there will be a deal on the table from Addax. However I think we should focus our attention on the MOST important thing that matters in the near future. That is EXACTLY when the DP and the AA will arrive in our JDZ Blocks. The location of the AA has been closely tracked, but has anyone tried to find out exactly how long Kosmos will be using the AA and whether Kosmos will use the options? Is anyone trying to get inside information from Kosmos or Kosmos employees or the guys on the rigs? The same questions also need to be applied to the DP, is anyone trying to get inside information from the present operator of the DP or the employees or the guys on the rigs? With all of the "snooping" ability here I would think someone would be able to contact (email) a rigger (or his friends/family) on one of these rigs to see if they know the future plans of the rigs or when current drilling operations may be ending.
So, who can find out more about the DP and AA? Any good detectives out there?
I was checking the line on the Celtics this am over at sportsbook.com and noticed they posted a betting line on whether a deal would be announced between Addax and ERHC. Here are the odds if/when a deal will be announced:
On or before April 30 ----- 4 to 1
May 1 to May 14 ------ 8 to 1
May 15 to May 31 ----- 12 to 1
In June ---- 12 to 1
Between July 1 and Sept 30 ----- 20 to 1
Between Oct 1 and Dec 31 ------- 10 to 1
Not in 2009 ------ even money
Ps: I took the Celtics +3 and not in 2009 bets
Cobra , is that this April 31th or next April 31st ?
Exceo, you MUST make your wife understand that the entire 8 years wait was to find out if and/or how much oil there is down there. Now after 8 years you are now only months away from finding out the answer. You can not leave until you know that answer. You MUST have your wife adjust her deadline to coincide with the date the drilling results are announced. That would make more sense and give both of you a fair chance in this stock.
I would imagine any discussion about the stock goes on deaf ears but she must know something about what's going on with the company including that the rigs are scheduled on or before the 4th Q. What's another 6 month extention after 8 years. You can offer to stay on the couch during the extension (lol)
Exceo, concerning your wife, I am not able to discuss the ERHC situation with my wife either and it has been only three years. Keep in mind for awhile I was down over a quarter million and when I would buy more she would get irate. I am so glad I have recovered all that money, but she wants to sell now and does not understand the potential.
Kobiashi, I will bet anyone a million dollars that the deal will not be announced exactly ON April 31, 2007. Any takers?
Exceo, I am in full agreement that EVERYONE here wants a $5+ plus deal to be completed ASAP. But that is not reality. It has been discussed here many times that Addax can not justify paying $5 for a 45 cent company. No way, no how. Our share price must somehow get much higher for the deal to be satisfactory the ERHC shareholders. In my previous post I explained how that may happen. A rejected low ball offer will get the ball rolling and push ERHC share price up to close to the offer amount. Time will pass for all of this to transpire. Drilling will occur and hopefully the results will justify an offer that Addax can make that will be acceptable to us. Simple, but this will take months and months and fortnights and fortnights. I believe early or mid next year for any deal to be completed. Sorry that this will take so long, but I am getting old as well and sure would like things to happen faster, but just do not believe it will. Can you provide a timeline that will get this done any sooner?
That gives us time to discuss the possible deals, as though they have not been discussed to death already. Keep in mind that any deal would likely have to be approved by Addax shareholders as well. So there are two giant stumbling blocks for ANY deal to occur prior to drilling. ERHC shareholders and Addax shareholders. This assumes that both Addax and ERHC BODs have already approved the deal and are now submitting it to the shareholders.
Any kind of offer to ERHC has to be above (probably way above) the present share price. So once a deal is announced pending shareholder approval, the share price SHOULD shoot up to close to that level. This would be great news. Let's say the offer is one buck, the SP goes to 90-95 while the offer is being voted on. Most likely the ERHC shareholders reject the offer and kill the deal. However the share price remains high, maybe dropping to 80-85 cents or possible over a buck based on the fact the shareholders rejected the offer as being too low. In any case an offer on the table will be good for the share price and will be a beginning to further negotiations. All of this takes time and any completed deals will take us way past the time when the drilling is completed and the results are in. Then we can all better decide on what is an acceptable price for our little gem.
Very slow trading day (market closed)
One thing for sure, when a buy in/out deal is announced, the shareholders must be involved to vote whether to approve or reject the deal. Most likely a special shareholders meeting will be held, which requires about 20-30 days formal notice. During that time there will be not and heavy discussion here on the pros and cons of the deal. This would take us to nearly June, with drilling right around the corner (in some of those reports of the drilling to begin in late second Q). Addax could be keeping silent about the rigs arriving early knowing that with the rigs that close one would want to wait on the results before deciding on a buy in/out deal. With this in mind I think there will not be any deal announcement near term. I believe it will be months away and AFTER the drilling is completed and the results in. That would make more sense to me. One would think for an investor to make a decision on a deal, the important facts about the oil would have to be known. JMO
DeGen
Ps: Balance although I respect your opinions, I have to disagree with your prediction of a predrill deal.
Krom, very interesting post about where ERHC is going. I made some comments about it on the JDZ board.
Troy, I also respect and understand your decision about ERHC. However, since I do not have a quikie money maker I will stick with ERHC which is what I know and understand and ride out any possible storms. Did you read Krom's post over on the other board. Krom is in your school of thought but also could or would not pull the trigger on selling ERHC. It is tough to sell (ERHC especially) if you still like a stock's potential and future. When I sell I usually do not want to look back and certainly do not want to rebuy any time soon if I made my decision to sell. Unless of course major facts change.
In any case I was disappointed that both you and Krom posted on the other board and not here. I am still do not want to post over there for reasons we all know, especially you and Krom.