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AJTJ, RE: Shanghai Hammer
Lurk around your board ... good stuff!
NDX and the other U.S indices made a similar hammer (in their bubble mode) the first week of April 2000 and we all know what followed after that.
Any reason why this shanghai hammer should take it to test it's highs again?
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NDX&p=W&st=2000-01-01&en=2000-07-01&i=p28394635124....
BIG BLOCK BUY
Only 8K traded (Ask was 0.14 and Bid 0.125) and Bam last trade at 0.145 with 85K traded!!
About Time!
Shanghai should resume downtrend now
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=20218067
Should make it's way down towards it's 200dma in the 2800-3000 area.
Foot, u calling for 1465 by this thursday 6/14
or week of 6/25 i.e. 6/28? My thought process lines up with your thinking i.e. down till end of the month and rally into earnings.
Almost everyone is looking to short any bounce here
Smart bulls will be looking to get out at better prices ... makes you wonder, how much will it bounce? :)
Coast to Coast
From 0.12 to 0.21 to back to 0.12 - full retrace.
Amazing and Frustrating!! :)
Time to short AAPL - only for the brave :)
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=F6C9F6DD-3173-456F-9FAB-F30B9A2D6647&sitei...
Oops ... going to the LOD
SPX should close over 1500 today
That's a safe number to comfort the masses :)
Bulls & Bears conditioned
Any long uptrending market (since last July) has conditioned everyone.
Bulls - Always buy the dip, it will bounce now
Bears - Seen multiple previous 'mini falls' overcome to new highs, think we have another rally to highs
At some time, it is 'perfect for Da House' .... both Bulls and Bears are buying while they quitely sell!
It then reverses at the lows where panic selling occurs and the house loads up and the game continues :)
10yr above 5%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5ETNX
Gleno AAPL GOOG RIMM are the Generals here
They will stand solid like a rock; They will be the last ones to fall if we do get a meaningful correction.
DELL, CSCO, ORCL, INTC/MSFT were the 90's Generals :)
Gleno, 46.71 is what NM calls OE Pivot
Close at the end of last OE in this case May 18th Q's closed at 46.71
NM, the bigger problem is that when u think u know the rules of the Da House, they will change them :)
Boring Shanghai
Only 100 pt swing today ... looks like it will crawl back to 3900-4000 this week. Mucho volatility next week then :)
Awesome ... thanks Dr. Sean
Bookmarked your board too and catch up at leisure!
Foot, what's the ticker for 30yr treasury bond?
Could not find it under $USB ... found ^TYX but it's price is in the 5.x range. Your $USB chart shows prices in the 11x range?
Are we there yet?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5ETNX&t=3m
<Fear of higher rates hits stocks>
Interest rates did move higher today, with the 10-year Treasury note yielding 4.976%, up from 4.929% yesterday. Traders fear that a jump in the yield over 5% would be psychologically damaging to the stock market.
In fact, last summer's correction that saw the Dow fall more than 8% was set off when the 10-year note crossed the 5% level.
<end article>
Hot air coming out of SSEC
Another 5% haircut ... should be a non-event around the world however. 20% decline in 5 trading days ... Ouch for those who bought at the top.
Chris - excellent charts
Thanks for sharing; Agree with longer term view and as Aire points out, sum of all the larger cycles is still very Bullish.
However, until we get through this summer with an impending 4.5yr low, I have a short term bearish bias.
Further 4.5yr low / 200dma info
Also noticed the following - all these 4.5yr lows were preceeded by a test of the 200dma in the 6-12 months preceeding them.
Sept '85 - Sept '86
Jan '90 - Oct '90
Mar '94 - Dec '94
Oct '97 - Oct '98
'01-'03 - was always under 200dma
July '06 - ?? '07
I hope i've labelled the correct months for the 4.5yr lows.
Aire, current SPX comparison to '86 is eerie
Sept '85 - test of 200dma (July '06)
June '86 - Rally to New high (Feb '07)
July '86 - Sudden 2-3 wk breakdown (Feb-Mar '07)
Sept '86 - Recovery to new highs (June '07)
The current SPX recovery has way exceeded the sept '86 one that barely managed to get to previous highs.
Will what happened in the weeks of Sept '86 follow now? Murphy's law ... once someone has discovered this, it will break the pattern :)
Aire, appreciate your work as usual
Looking back at the past 4.5yr NYSE lows ('86, '90, '94, '98, and '03), found almost all to bottom off near their 200dma's. While 1986 bottom was right at the 200dma, others fell much below that.
Most indices hit their 200dma last in the July '06 correction. NYSE 200dma is around 9062 at this time. Let's see how the next month plays out.
Aire, appreciate your work as usual
Looking back at the past 4.5yr NYSE & SPX lows ('86, '90, '94, '98, and '03), found almost all to bottom off near their 200dma's. While 1986 bottom was right at the 200dma, others fell much below that.
Most indices hit their 200dma last in the July '06 correction. NYSE 200dma is around 9062 & SPX is at 1408 at this time. Let's see how the next month plays out.
Farooq beat Gleno to 10K
They were competing there in the 999x range and Gleno got 9999 ... but Farooq beat him to 10K! Looks like Gleno got busy hogging his SPY board :)
ArkadyK, I'll let NM explain in more detail
Believe he uses an option based price modelling software - it projects prices based on current trading trends/price. I must say that the near term targets have been quite on the mark i.e. that day or next day but swing wildly given that price dictates what is going to happen next. So, 4cast for the week/month could swing wildly :)
ArkadyK, I'll let NM explain in more detail
Believe he uses an option based price modelling software - it projects prices based on current trading trends/price. I must say that the near term targets have been quite on the mark i.e. that day or next day but longer term 4casts swing wildly given that price dictates what is going to happen next. So, 4cast for the week/month could change :)
NM, wild swinging 4casts indeed
June 8th closing price changed from 48.x to 45.x - WOW!
Let's see which one plays out :)
Down tomorrow?
Dan says down tomorrow .... can we gap down at the open below 47.2 and stay down all day? There is Gleno's island top from thursday that is still in play. Very teeny 'water gap' between 47.2 and 47.21 that did not get filled friday.
Chinese are helping - Shanghai down 5% already ... let's see where it closes.
Island top, Shooting star friday ... it's all happening :)
euterpe1, QID tracks Q's/NDX100 which is flat for the day; moreover closing price for Q's is 4.01 p.m. where as QID is 4.15 p.m. Yesterday, Q's closed at 47.41 but traded around 47.5 AH at 4.15 p.m causing QID to close lower at 46.11
In QID's eyes today, Q's are down from 47.5 (closed at 47.44) causing it to close up :)
Employment numbers tomorrow should be big mover
Gap down and Gleno gets his island top; Gap up and it's off to the races - more Bull party!!
Can't be happening - Shanghai down another 3.5%
Chinese have forgotten that BIG DIPS should be bought. Well, on the flip side, if the Shanghai closes down another 5-6%, all that money will come into our markets tomorrow :)
Got that S&P Record close
that eluded everyone last week - 1530+ ... Yeah!!
And Shanghai will be up +7% tomorrow recovering all it's losses - let the party continue!!
Just the usual 'screw with Gleno and his short cohorts' surge :)
EOM yes but EOQ is June end.
Just like any other FOMC day pattern
Down on announcement
Knee jerk reversal Up
End Down?
Gaps filled
Now can we head back to the lows Gleno?
Volatile Shanghai
Gapped down -5.7% .... now down around -3%
Interesting to see where it closes and how it shapes world markets tomorrow!!
Agree Foot - FOMC mins tomorrow @ 2 p.m
could help facilitate that move.
Gleno - daily H&S still in play
Left shoulder high on 5/14 @ 46.88
Head high on 5/23 @ 47.37
Right shoulder today high @ 46.86
Let's see if neckline @ the 46 area is violated this week for confirmation.