Aire, appreciate your work as usual
Looking back at the past 4.5yr NYSE & SPX lows ('86, '90, '94, '98, and '03), found almost all to bottom off near their 200dma's. While 1986 bottom was right at the 200dma, others fell much below that.
Most indices hit their 200dma last in the July '06 correction. NYSE 200dma is around 9062 & SPX is at 1408 at this time. Let's see how the next month plays out.