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We need a good 2 day drop in the short term. 3 (60-1, 60-E-1, & 60-SC-1) of the 4 60 min Bear Cycles are now extremely overdue.
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 1st hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (due 4/22/23) projected low 4140.36, it put in a low of 4134.49, then during the 3rd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-2 (due 4/20/23) projected high 4160.27, today at the close of the 5th hour there is the possibility of a 60-2 (Overdue) projected high 4187.51, the high will be due today at the 6th hour.
Hi No-Quarter,
My system is based on cycles.
I have Bear & Bull Cycles for each time frame (60 min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & Yearly)
Each time frame has 4 possible Bear/Bull Cycles
All time frames work the same way.
I use the following indicators in my cycle system to determine the type & degree of the cycle.
EMA 11 (high) (UTL) top green line on the chart - is used to determine Bull/Bear territory, above the EMA 11 (High) is Bull territory, below the EMA 11 (High) is Bear territory. Real simple.
EMA 11 (Low) (LTL) bottom green line - is used to determine average to extended bear cycles.
EMA 3 red line on the chart - is used to determine the degree of the cycle. When it crosses above the EMA 11(high) the bull cycle could either be an average or extended bull cycle. If the EMA 3 crosses below the EMA 11 (low) then the bear cycle could either be an average or extended bear cycle.
MACD Histo (12,26,9) - the MACD histo is used like the EMA 3, when the MACD is above the zero line the bull cycle can be either a average or extended bull cycle, if the MACD is below the the zero line the bear cycle can either be an average or extended bear cycle.
Example 1: SPX is above the EMA 11 (high), it is a confirmed bull cycle, if the EMA 3 crosses above the EMA 11 (high) or the MACD is above the zero line, a average bull cycle could be confirmed, if the EMA 3 has crossed above the EMA 11 (high) and the MACD has crossed above the zero line (and the histo is green, then an extended bull cycle could be confirmed. If the average duration of the extended bull cycle has been exceeded, then a bull super cycle is confirmed.
Example 2: SPX is below the EMA 11 (high), it could be confirmed a bear cycle if the duration requirements are met, if the EMA 3 crosses below the EMA 11 (low) a average or extended bear cycle could be confirmed. If the MACD is below the zero line a average or extended bear cycle could be confirmed. If both the EMA 3 is below the EMA 11(low) and the MACD is below the zero line (histo is red) then an extended bear cycle can be confirmed. If the extended bear cycle average duration has been exceeded, then a Bear Super Cycle is confirmed.
I know it seems like a lot, but it is a really easy concept. Once you get it down, you will easily be able to eye ball a chart and know if it's in a short, average, or extended bull or bear cycle just based on the positioning of these indicators. This system works basically on any stock with high volumn.
I myself only track the SPX cycles, however, I do use my system to eye ball the charts of my stocks in my IRA accounts.
As for the SPX, I have gone a step further. I track every cycle in each time frame (60 min, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly & yearly). I use the Yearly cycles to determine if the SPX is in a Bull or Bear Market. Right now the Yearly is in it's 14th year of a Bull Market, that is projected to last another 12 year with a projected high of 10331.27, it could last longer if the Yearly Bull Super Cycle (Y-SC-2) gets confirmed, which is at least 13 years away, if confirmed it will have a projected high of 15308.39 and will be projected to last until the end of 2042.
I use spread sheets to track each time frame & each cycle level. The reports that I produce comes from the spread sheet data. The data on my reports have been very consistent since 2011 when I started compiling the data. My 60 min data is from 2011 to present, total of 1538 cycles. Daily data is from 2004 to present, total of 342 cycles. Weekly data is from 2004 to present, total of 60 cycles. Monthly data is from 1929 to present, total of 62 cycles. Quarterly data is from 1930 to present, total of 17 cycles. Yearly data is from 1930 to present, total of 4 cycles.
How do I use my system to make trades?
On the Bull side I only buy UPRO or SPXL (whichever is cheaper), I only have 1 sell signal which is the 60 min Bull Super Cycle (60-SC-2). I have 2 buy signals, the 60 min Extended Bull Cycle (60-E-1) & the 60 min Bear Super Cycle (60-SC-1). When any of these cycles are confirmed, I look at the status of the higher time frames, and then decide if I want to act on the signal. On the Bear side, I only buy SPXU or SPXS (whichever is cheaper). I only have 1 sell signal which is the 60-SC-1 and I only have 1 buy signal which is the Daily Bull Super Cycle (D-SC-2).
I have picked these cycles as signals because they represent short term extreme tops & bottoms.
That is the short of it.
Feel free to ask any questions, by just looking at my charts and my data, you will catch on fast.
As of this posting the SPX futures are down 26.75 points, so looks like we will open in a 60-S-1, projected low 4140.36, there is the possibility today at the close of the 6th hour of a 60-E-1 (Overdue) projected low 4058.50, then maybe tomorrow at the close a 60-SC-1 (Extreme Overdue) projected low 4005.12.
Also if the futures continue to drop, the Daily could open in an UNCONFIRMED D-S-1, projected low 4065.25.
If the 60-E-1 gets confirmed today a UPRO Buy Signal will become active, buy price below 36.95
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 1st hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-2 (Overdue) projected high 4177.25, today at the close of the 5th hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-2 (due 4/21/23) projected high 4227.92, the high will be due tomorrow at the 6th hour. We need to get some 60 min Bear Cycles worked off, 3 (60-1, 60-E-1, & 60-SC-1) of the 4 Bear Cycles are either overdue or extremely overdue. The 60-E-1 (Extremely Overdue) and the 60-SC-1 9Overdue) could both be confirmed in the same cycle. A drop of 50 points over 2 trading days would do it.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4177.25, the low will be due at the 2nd hour. Tomorrow there is the possibility of a new Monthly Bull Cycle M-S-2 (due 8/29/26) projected high 4560.94, the high will be due 4/28/23.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. Today the SPX Weekly confirmed a W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high is due 5/5/23. Today the Weekly Cycle made another high at 4163.19. Next week there is the possibility of a new Monthly Bull Cycle M-S-2 (due 8/29/26) projected high 4560.94, the high will be due 4/28/23.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. Today the SPX Weekly confirmed a W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high is due 5/5/23. Today the Weekly Cycle made another high at 4163.19. Next week there is the possibility of a new Monthly Bull Cycle M-S-2 (due 8/29/26) projected high 4560.94, the high will be due 4/28/23.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Today during the 7th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4149.01, Monday at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-S-1 (due 4/19/23) projected low 4110.73, the low will be due Monday at the 1st hour, or at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4165.94, the high will be due Monday at the 3rd hour. Today at the close the Weekly confirmed a W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high is due 5/5/23.
Today the SPX Weekly made a new cycle high at 4163.19. Today at the close the Weekly should confirm the W-2 with a projected high of 4220.28, the high will be due 5/5/23.
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 1st hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-E-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4189.56, during the 1st hour put in a high at 4163.19, then at the close of the 2nd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4134.11, today at the close of the 5th hour there is the possibility of a 60-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4113.24, the low will be due today at the 5th hour. Today at the close the Weekly should confirm a W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high will be due 5/5/23.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. Today the Weekly Cycle made another high. Tomorrow at the close there is the possibility of a Weekly W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high is due 5/5/23. The Quarterly Q-S-2 continues in it's 2nd Quarter, projected high is 4692.46. Tomorrow there is the possibility of a new Monthly Bull Cycle M-S-2 (due 8/29/26) projected high 4560.94, the high will be due 4/28/23.
SPX Cycles Long Range Projection Chart. Today the Weekly Cycle made another high. Tomorrow at the close there is the possibility of a Weekly W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high is due 5/5/23. The Quarterly Q-S-2 continues in it's 2nd Quarter, projected high is 4692.46. Tomorrow there is the possibility of a new Monthly Bull Cycle M-S-2 (due 8/29/26) projected high 4560.94, the high will be due 4/28/23.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4189.56, the high will be due Monday at the 2nd hour. Tomorrow at the close there is the possibility of a Weekly W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high will be due 5/5/23.
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 4th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4139.35, the high is due today at the 5th hour, tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4189.56, the high will be due Monday at the 2nd hour.
They are behind the curve. I'm projecting 4600 by August.
SPX Cycles Update. Today during the 2nd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4122.52, today at the close of the 4th hour there is the possibility of a 60-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4139.35, high will be due today at the 5th hour, tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4189.56, the high will be due Monday at the 2nd hour.
Yep, we need the overdue 60-E-1 & 60-SC-1 confirmed & completed, hopefully they don't reach their projected lows, then we can move to the 4200/4300 level.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Today at the close the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4098.44, tomorrow at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4077.75, the low will be tomorrow at the 2nd hour. Tomorrow at the close there is the possibility of a Daily D-S-1 (due 5/7/23) projected low 4031.02, the low will be due tomorrow
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 3rd hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (due 4/15/23) projected low 4105.49 and put in a low of 4095.18, then during the 4th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-2 (Extreme Overdue) projected high 4130.83, today at the close there is the possibility of another 60-S-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4098.44, the low will be due today at the 7th hour, tomorrow at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4077.75, the low will be due tomorrow at the 2nd hour.
Today we have new cycle highs at the 60 min, Daily & Weekly levels.
Current possibilities for today:
The SPX remains in 60-E-2 with a projected high of 4174.81. If the SPX continues in 60-E-2 to the close, then tomorrow at the opening there will be the possibility of a 60-SC-2 (due 4/23/23) projected high 4211.70 & a UPRO Sell Signal will become active, sell price above 41.32.
Or today at the close of the 3rd hour there is the possibility of a 60-S-1 (due 4/15/23) projected low 4105.49. the low will be due at the 3rd hour, or at the close of the 5th hour there is the possibility of a 60-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4084.77, the low will be due today at the 5th hour.
If the 60 min closes today as a 60-1, then tomorrow there will be the possibility of a 60-E-1 (Overdue) projected low 4024.32. If the 60-E-1 is confirmed a UPRO Buy Signal will become active, buy price below 36.04.
As of this posting the SPX Futures are up 38 points, if that holds to the open, the 60 min should continue in 60-E-2, projected high 4174.81
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Tomorrow at the close of the 1st hour there is the possibility of a 60-S-1 (due 4/15/23) projected low 4095.45, the low will be due at the 1st hour. Also tomorrow there is the possibility of a 60-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4074.78, the low will be due tomorrow at the 3rd hour, or a 60-E-1 (Overdue) projected low 4014.48, the low will be due Thursday at the 3rd hour. If the 60-E-1 is confirmed a UPRO Buy Signal will become active, buy price below 35.86.
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Today at the close of the 6th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-2 (due 4/18/23) projected high 4124.77, tomorrow at the close of the 3rd hour there is the possibility of a 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4174.81, the high will be due Wednesday at the 4th hour.
Right now my SPX Bear Strength Meter is at an extreme high of 28.41%. That means we need to confirm & complete some Bear Cycles that haven't been confirmed in a while. The Bear Cycles with the most Bear points right now: Q-SC-1 (15), D-SC-1(14), W-1 (13), 60-SC-1 (9), M-E-1 (8), D-1 (8).
The 60-SC-1 & D-1 could weaken the Bear in the short term.
A drop to 4000 would be nice.
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 1st hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-S-1 (Extreme Overdue) projected low 4078.63, today at the close of the 3rd hour there is the possibility of a 60-1 (due 4/17/23) projected low 4058.04, the low will be due today at the 3rd hour, the 60-E-1 projected low 3997.99 & the 60-SC-1 projected low 3945.41, are both overdue. The Weekly continues it's 3rd week in W-S-2, Friday at the close there is the possibility of a W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high will be due 5/5/23. The W-E-2 projected high 4636.26 & the W-SC-2 projected high 4708.00, are both overdue. The current Bear Strength is at 28.41% which is extremely high, so that means some overdue/extreme overdue Bear Cycles need to be completed to bring down the Bear Strength. Right now the following Bear Cycles have the highest Bear points 60 min level: 60-SC-1 (8), 60-E-1 (2), Daily level: D-SC-1 (14) & D-1 (8).
Yes, I would like to see the 60-E-1 & 60-SC-1 out of the way, then head to 4200 level.
You to Gleno.
The Lord bless thee, and keep thee:
The Lord make his face shine upon thee, and be gracious unto thee:
The Lord lift up his countenance upon thee, and give thee peace.
Numbers 6:24-26
SPX Cycles End of the Day Reports & Charts. Tomorrow the markets are closed. The Daily is in an OB condition. Monday at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4172.03, the high will be due Tuesday at the 3rd hour. At the close of next week there is the possibility of a Weekly W-2 (due 4/15/24) projected high 4220.28, the high will be due 5/5/2023, the W-E-2 projected high 4636.26 & W-SC-2 projected high 4708.00, are both overdue. The 60 min 60-E-1 & 60-SC-1 are both overdue, so next week we could see a pull back to around 4075 allowing the 60-E-1 & 60-SC-1 to get confirmed. Then a large move to the upside possibly confirming a new Monthly Bull Cycle M-S-2 , projected high 4560.94, the high will be due this month.
SPX Cycles Update. Today at the close of the 5th hour the 60 min confirmed a 60-2 (Extreme Overdue) projected high 4122.03, the high is due today at the 6th hour. Tomorrow at the close of the 2nd hour there is the possibility of a 60 min 60-E-2 (Overdue) projected high 4172.03, the high will be due Monday at the 3rd hour.