SPX Cycles

[northam43]

Hi No-Quarter,

My system is based on cycles.

I have Bear & Bull Cycles for each time frame (60 min, Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly & Yearly)

Each time frame has 4 possible Bear/Bull Cycles

All time frames work the same way.

I use the following indicators in my cycle system to determine the type & degree of the cycle.

EMA 11 (high) (UTL) top green line on the chart - is used to determine Bull/Bear territory, above the EMA 11 (High) is Bull territory, below the EMA 11 (High) is Bear territory. Real simple.

EMA 11 (Low) (LTL) bottom green line - is used to determine average to extended bear cycles.

EMA 3 red line on the chart - is used to determine the degree of the cycle. When it crosses above the EMA 11(high) the bull cycle could either be an average or extended bull cycle. If the EMA 3 crosses below the EMA 11 (low) then the bear cycle could either be an average or extended bear cycle.

MACD Histo (12,26,9) - the MACD histo is used like the EMA 3, when the MACD is above the zero line the bull cycle can be either a average or extended bull cycle, if the MACD is below the the zero line the bear cycle can either be an average or extended bear cycle.

Example 1: SPX is above the EMA 11 (high), it is a confirmed bull cycle, if the EMA 3 crosses above the EMA 11 (high) or the MACD is above the zero line, a average bull cycle could be confirmed, if the EMA 3 has crossed above the EMA 11 (high) and the MACD has crossed above the zero line (and the histo is green, then an extended bull cycle could be confirmed. If the average duration of the extended bull cycle has been exceeded, then a bull super cycle is confirmed.

Example 2: SPX is below the EMA 11 (high), it could be confirmed a bear cycle if the duration requirements are met, if the EMA 3 crosses below the EMA 11 (low) a average or extended bear cycle could be confirmed. If the MACD is below the zero line a average or extended bear cycle could be confirmed. If both the EMA 3 is below the EMA 11(low) and the MACD is below the zero line (histo is red) then an extended bear cycle can be confirmed. If the extended bear cycle average duration has been exceeded, then a Bear Super Cycle is confirmed.

I know it seems like a lot, but it is a really easy concept. Once you get it down, you will easily be able to eye ball a chart and know if it's in a short, average, or extended bull or bear cycle just based on the positioning of these indicators. This system works basically on any stock with high volumn.

I myself only track the SPX cycles, however, I do use my system to eye ball the charts of my stocks in my IRA accounts.

As for the SPX, I have gone a step further. I track every cycle in each time frame (60 min, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly & yearly). I use the Yearly cycles to determine if the SPX is in a Bull or Bear Market. Right now the Yearly is in it's 14th year of a Bull Market, that is projected to last another 12 year with a projected high of 10331.27, it could last longer if the Yearly Bull Super Cycle (Y-SC-2) gets confirmed, which is at least 13 years away, if confirmed it will have a projected high of 15308.39 and will be projected to last until the end of 2042.

I use spread sheets to track each time frame & each cycle level. The reports that I produce comes from the spread sheet data. The data on my reports have been very consistent since 2011 when I started compiling the data. My 60 min data is from 2011 to present, total of 1538 cycles. Daily data is from 2004 to present, total of 342 cycles. Weekly data is from 2004 to present, total of 60 cycles. Monthly data is from 1929 to present, total of 62 cycles. Quarterly data is from 1930 to present, total of 17 cycles. Yearly data is from 1930 to present, total of 4 cycles.

How do I use my system to make trades?

On the Bull side I only buy UPRO or SPXL (whichever is cheaper), I only have 1 sell signal which is the 60 min Bull Super Cycle (60-SC-2). I have 2 buy signals, the 60 min Extended Bull Cycle (60-E-1) & the 60 min Bear Super Cycle (60-SC-1). When any of these cycles are confirmed, I look at the status of the higher time frames, and then decide if I want to act on the signal. On the Bear side, I only buy SPXU or SPXS (whichever is cheaper). I only have 1 sell signal which is the 60-SC-1 and I only have 1 buy signal which is the Daily Bull Super Cycle (D-SC-2).

I have picked these cycles as signals because they represent short term extreme tops & bottoms.

That is the short of it.

Feel free to ask any questions, by just looking at my charts and my data, you will catch on fast.