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If only AAPL got a cut
I suspect they will make plenty from the Hardware :)
For the past year
Sales of Mac's have been growing faster than overall computer sales. Is that not a fact?
The phrase "extrarodinary response" was used several times during the conference call, particularly in regard to the MacBook Pro.
Not very precise, but there it is.
Ron
Apple expects to be able to meet iMac demands
At one point in the CC, the word used was hoped to meet iMac demand. In any event, to be able to make a determination as to whether it was positive or not would require one to know what planned iMac production levels are, and we do not know that - at least I do not know that.
I am not taking a position on whether the next quarter will or will not be positive. I am moderately pleased with my earnings trade and am moderately pleased with my core AAPl position looking to the future. I am neither wild optimist nor a wild pessimist. I think AAPl will do fine and will end the year up from where it is now.
Earnings report
I'd like to hear the number of orders for MacBook Pro and IiMacs
My earnings estimate :)
.73
OT: may be some bargains out there today.
Happy buying
clearsailing how about them.
if iWeb is satisfactory, they will never find their way to my hard drive.
In the long run it will just be a blip on the radar screen
referring to a $10 drop, said Altaire.
Such blips can be very profitable. If there is one, I'll let you know what I did.
IMO it makes no sense to even think about timing a turn with so little slack.
You're right, but, to quote Zanny, "I have many thought" :)
My main one the past couple of years, one that has been highly profitable, has been to hold positions in Apple, precious and base metals miners and energy.
The trades I started last month in AAPL are all closed out now.
Will continue to hold the core position and await the next opportunity that looks good to me.
Sold the last block of trading shares before I left for work this morning, at about 10:00 EST.
Wish I could have pulled the trigger on some puts :)
Rogers on commodities
That is interesting. I sold the remainder of AAPL shares bought in Dec. for a trade this morning and put money into RSNRX - which I have held and made good money on in the past. I think Pilara is an excellent manager and it gets exposure to O&G, base metals, some ag commodities and some PM. This was all in Ms. Roni's IRA. I think I'll get retained as her manager again - she was up over 40% last year - and doing well this year.
Still holding AAPL core position.
Alt, the question was
Do you think AAPL is within 5% of a short-term top?
Your thoughts on that are....?????
yofal,
That is similar to what I am thinking, but when I look at the cost of Feb 80 puts - I am not willing to back those thoughts up with money at this point.
May sell one more batch of stock, going back to the number of shares we had before I started this "trading buying" back in December. That last batch was bought around $74.
Anyone smart, foolish, stupid, wise
enough to say we're within 5% of a short term top here?
Bootz, all I know
Is that it did not happen before the updtate
It happened after the update
It stopped happening after the unintall.
Hope it does not happen to you.
So Ms. Roni called me from the front office
I was in the back one working on the old Mac. She said, the computer is having trouble restarting.
I said "What happened?"
She: I upgraded some programs
Me: Adobe programs?
She: No, I got this window that said 4 programs needed upgraded.
Me: OS X was one of them?
She: Yeah
Well, it hosed Mail. When switching from one mailbox to another, the mailbox would go blank and the program would freeze.
I uninstalled the QT update via the link on apple.com and all was well.
I don't think she will do the Apple software update again without further consultation :)
"Gold burst decisively through the $560 mark...even as many participants are out for the U.S. holiday," said Jon Nadler, an investment products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com, referring to the spot market Monday.
Trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange was closed Monday for the Martin Luther King, Jr. holiday.
On Friday, prices for the February gold contract rose to a high of $558.80 an ounce, the highest intraday futures price since March of 1981. They closed at $557, up $7.70 for the session and up $15.80 for the week.
"A global scramble for the asset is now unfolding, as the fund-driven price action is snowballing and attracting investors from all walks of life," said Nadler.
"Occasional setbacks and inevitable profit-taking will spook many latecomers as we go forward in this mountain-climbing expedition that gold finds itself on," he warned.
"But the mountain is there, the climbers are determined, and -- thus far -- the weather has been good," he said, adding that "base camp $575 is visible."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B85DBA06D%2D49A6%2D4687%2D8957%2D871DBD9598E1%7D&am...
OT: The Toronto exchange was open today
And many of my miner/nat resource positions are Canadian companies that are crossllisted in the US. Stuff was up again today. Brought to mind these lyrics from Paul Simon, as I sit here hoping this natural resource / materials bull keeps climbing the wall of my worry
When something goes wrong
I'm the first to admit it
I'm the first to admit it
But the last one to know
when something goes right
Well it's likely to lose me
It's apt to confuse me
It's such an unusual sight
I can't get used to something so right
Something so right
Although I suspect I can get used to it - remembering a nice run in 2003, when most things seemed to be hitting on all cylinders.
There are applications out there that help you build Web sites,'' Apple Chief Executive Steve Jobs said during his Macworld address Tuesday. ``But they are way hard for mere mortals to use.''
Apple isn't the first company to help people develop digital identities. A formidable group of other players such as Microsoft, Google, Yahoo and Myspace.com offer products and services. But Apple's ability to tie everything together -- hardware, operating system and an array of applications -- has been a hallmark of the Cupertino company.
``There is nobody doing anything close'' to what Apple has created with iLife, said Ben Bajarin, analyst with Creative Strategies. ``It's easy to use and it spurs creativity. Now with iWeb, there is a way to share what you have done. Everyone, HP, Toshiba, Dell -- these folks are thinking, `How the heck can we duplicate that?' ''
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/13637013.htm?template=cobrandArticleTemplate.jsp...
I am experiencing some nervousness :)
Usually do when almost every I hold has done real well - some of these things aren't supposed to be strongly correlated :).
Stop loss orders, gotta make sure they are all ok.
striking gold
The relevant questions for me right now are:
Does Apple strike silver or gold with the Mactels? If so, how rich is the deposit (how many grammes per ton of ore), and how large are the reserves?
Secondly, what is the quality of their exploration properties?
Lastly, are their geologists and engineers good enough to bring the metals out of the ground profitably?
Largely unanswered at this point, those questions are.
I think they make money on the Mactels. I think their IP and product development process seems to be working for now.
Overall I am not sure. You know, Robert Friedland of metals fame and the CEO of Ivanhoe Mines was a buddy of Steve Jobs' back in his Reed and early post-Reed days.
Apple could be a wealth creator for some time. Intel will be, I think, a good partner. I feel some uncertainty, though. I always get nervous when almost all my stocks and funds have made a good run :)
Tuesday
up, down, even?
After market close and earnings report: up, down even?
I don't believe I will upgrade the iLamp - It has 512 meg of ram, and I am not going to upgrade that. It serves my purposes for now and I will keep using 10.3 on it and buy a MacBook Pro after they are a little more tested, or wait for further introductions of Intel Macs. Don't really need the power of the MacBook Pro. The MacBook (iBook) will probably do just fine. In the meantime, I'll buy iLife 06 - which I think should be provided to me as a free upgrade since the iMac G5 was purchased on December 2nd - and install it on Kathy's machine. I'll use it for any iWeb stuff that I do until we get the next new Mac.
10.4 on 800 mhz G4
I'd be interested in hearing an update on the experiences of folks who upgraded the early iLamps. I am thinking of doing it because I want to do some iWeb stuff that requires 10.4.
thanks
Ron
nlightn
First, dilleet did not have a comment he had a question. When you put something out on a public stock discussion board, it becomes the business of anyone who reads it. You may not appreciate every comment generated by your post, but......
Thicker skin, look into it *smile*
Good luck in your trading.
lango: Uncle Roni declarations.
That is not even close to be a fair characterization of my wine-soaked feces post :). I did not make any declaration that is even close to the one you ascribed to me.
I think a little poker with Altaire, if he plays poker the same way he makes predictions on this board, could be a wealth creation strategy, but not for Altaire - whose posts I enjoy mostly.
Over, under, 50 million, 70 mil, 100 mil
You guys are rolling shit into little balls. Here is the big picture:
There is a better than even odds chance of AAPL being a major wealth creator over the next few years. I'll take the over on that,. and have. There are low risk ways to play that (stop loss orders, for one).
There are risks - the US economy is at risk.
Anyone who does not have 5-10% of their portfolio in precious metals is a damned fool, IMO. Of course, most of you folks know that I think precious metals is another wealth creator over the next few years.
The three legs of my weatlth creation stool are Apple Computer, Precious Metals and Energy, plus a little peripheral stuff. The largest part of the energy leg for me is alternative energy - though I belive uranium will do as well or better than anything else over the next couple of decades. It is where big energy is coming from.
So, number of iPods in the next year - it will be high enough. Number of CPUs? It will be high enough. Number of iPhones; maybe zero. Number of media hugs - hell, I dunno. Wealth creation - I think so.
Make your little over/under bets, it is interesting. I'll invest in the three legs of my wealth creation stool and go over to the Elks club some friends belong to and pay $13 to enter a Texas hold'em tourney when I want to gamble.
Analysts estimate the five ETFs now hold some 384 tons of gold -- equivalent to the gold reserves of Russia.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/01/13/markets/precious.reut/index.htm
GoLive
Actually, I am a little pissed. Bought GoLive Classroom in a Book a couple of weeks ago to relearn it - looks like iWeb will do everything I wanted to and more.
Guess I can sell the book and CD for GoLive on eBay
and it's not like the concept of a WYSIWYG HTML editor is exactly revolutionary anyway
I owned PageMill at one time :)
Karelia
I don't think it serves them well to say iWeb is .Mac only when the Apple publicity clearly says it is not, but I understand they are probably hurting some right now.
OT - photos of the Augustine volcano in Alaska that is erupting today
http://cnn.netscape.cnn.com/wrap/linker.jsp?rurl=http%3A%2F%2Fcnn.netscape.cnn.com%2Fnews%2Fstory.js...
Is this Apple too shiny?
http://www.forbes.com/free_forbes/2006/0130/043.html?partner=yahoomag
Apple's EcoSystem
Why Steve Jobs is winning the digital download wars—and what his competitors are trying to do about it.
Apple's secret sauce is the soothing consistency and reliability of its service. Apple sells songs for 99 cents, videos for $1.99, and ensures that all these songs, podcasts, TV shows and short films work on its own stylish line of iPods. One day, consumers might rebel against the copyright restrictions Apple places on its digital files and the lack of variety in its line of media players. For now, they simply love how seamlessly Apple's media ecosystem works.
and
Apple's rivals are devising a far more complicated set of offerings which—taken in tandem—could utterly confuse the average user. Verizon's new music store, for example, will let subscribers to its VCast service (who pay $15 extra a month) download songs for 99 cents to their PC and then transfer them to their phone. If they want to order a tune over the wireless network, it's $1.99, and then they get two copies of that song: a compressed file sent to their phone and a larger file to their PC. Get that? (Verizon says that the same model is hugely successful in Asia.)
and
Google's new video service is potentially even more confusing. Google co-founder Larry Page began his CES keynote speech last Friday afternoon with a quixotic, rambling screed against complexity in consumer electronics—epitomized by the rat's nest of cables underneath all our desks. Too many products, he said, were devised to satisfy the interests of companies and not consumers.
Then he proceeded to announce the digital equivalent of the rat's nest in Google Video's purchasing system.
rest of it here.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10794336/site/newsweek/
I'm starting to wonder if playing the downside may not be the earnings play. Think I will look at some Feb puts
OT: Paper, Petrobras and Rio Doce
I have some exposure to them in a large cap Latin American ETF that is heavily Brasil and Mexico (ILF). I have not done extensive DD on either company. I do have some history, though, the first car I ever drove was powered with Petrobras gasoline :).
Bootz,
1) One can hope
2) One can hope
3) Apple Corps lawsuit - I am not overley concerned
4) If you are real worried buy some puts or sell your stock
5) if you are only kinda worried, take some profits and re-diversify
Free advice and all that
AAPL plans
Ok, so I sold calls on Tuesday and made a bunch of money. If I had held until today, I would have made a bunch more. I am ok with that. So, what does the future hold.
In terms of AAPL, I think it is bright. Don't know how bright, don't know for sure it when will shine brightly. Here is what I have done and plan to do.
Plowed some of the proceeds of the calls into CHK and that alternative energy fund. AAPL is now 36% of our combined IRA's, which are relatively small, rolled over from some other retirement assets and not a major part of our overall retirement planning, but not insignificant either.
I plan to keep all the long AAPL shares we have and let them ride all year. There will be fairly loose trailing stop loss orders on those shares. We'll see how it goes. I expect Apple to have another good year. I agree with Runkle - I think the product pipeline has stuff that is ready or near ready and that there will be multiple introductions throughout the year in addition to rounding out the Mactels.
I am somewhat unsure how the transition year will go in terms of CPU sales. I expect a bump in MacBook numbers, comapared to PowerBooks YoY, but until some in-depth reviews show up we really won't know how enthusiastically they will be received. We also do not know how Rosetta will do with pro apps, maybe especially 3rd party ones.
I know this iMac G5 I am typing on is a wonderful machine, I do know that.
So the themes for now are Apple, precious metals, natural gas, alternate energy Adaptec, large cap Mexico and Brasil, and PIXR, with cash in both accouts to do stuff with.
So far, in the short time we have had this year, those portfolios are up 23.19%. I have never had a start like this before. Maybe by midyear some of these things will take a flight to safety :)
From Forbes.com
Apple Is A 'Top Pick' Based On Continued IPod Momentum
Maya Roney, 01.11.06, 10:16 AM ET
Morgan Stanley research analyst Rebecca Runkle maintained an "overweight" rating and $90 price target on Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) and raised earnings estimates, dubbing Apple her "top pick" coming out of the MacWorld 2006 keynote yesterday.
"iPod momentum is stronger now than it’s ever been," wrote the analyst in a research note Wednesday.
"Apple’s system lineup is also stronger than it’s ever been — these two factors alone give us plenty of reason to stay long the stock despite the run it’s enjoyed over the last 15 plus months."
Runkle continues to believe Apple’s Mac transition to Intel (nasdaq: INTC - news - people ) could be largely complete by mid-year and that a specialized "digital living room solution" media server is still in the works for later this year.
"The evolution of the digital living room is one of our three major themes for 2006," said the analyst, "and monumental traction during [the] 2005 holiday combined with new product offerings further solidify Apple as the best positioned living-room play in our group."
To reflect new Mac product ramps, Runkle raised fiscal 2006 estimates to earnings of $2.03 per share on revenue of $20.8 billion from earnings of $1.89 per share on revenue of $19.6 billion.
Runkle said Apple's "monumental" holiday quarter for iPod and iTunes sales helped drive a $2 billion sequential increase in revenue and a $900 million upside versus her previous estimate.