$25 divided by 3 is $8.33 each. Add $1.00 to each man and you now have $9.33. Then multiply by 3 and you have
$27.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999.
Add $2 and you now have $29.99.

Send me the penny since people creating these problems can't round off decimals.

porter

Either still in Wave 2 down channel or...wave 1 of wave 3 up has begun.

Looks like a photo finish is comin.'<g>

Thanks.

I'm long term Bearish and very short term Bullish AND I am NOT a fast dancer!!!<ggg>.

ajtj99,

TA question:
When you see a divergence between slow stochastics and the RSI which one do you favor?

TIA
Porter

P.S.---Looks like McClellan Summation will have the final say.

People are waitin' for it to fall apart. Ain't gonna happen. Inflection points are 'round the corner.

TA and gravity.

Read a post here two days ago doubting the PPT phenomenon.

On the nite of the Oct. 1987 crash the FED announced they were the "lender of last resort." The implications of that statement are to be heeded. That message was NOT directed at the public. It was directed at Specialists and MMs to inform them that a liquidity safey-net was close at hand.

<Admittedly, the slushing around the last 2-3 days does not make any count work well>

Looks like double zig-zag.

<You think they are going to let thing close above 25 QQQ..allowing all those calls to be good?>

Time premiums are killing both sides.

<Be careful with bullet-proof South Florida.>

Four unit rentals off the Miami River seem to O.K. Fix 'em and flip 'em. Now have one foot out the door.

<1 bedroom 1000sq. ft for $800,000-g)>

Flight and spec money is still out there. Madness for my sons when they want to buy homes.

<I think West Coast (lower end) is best bet...>

As long as interest rates...

<Good trading to you...>

All the best to you, too.

There are several schools of interpretation regarding e-waves now floating around.

One says:
5up, a-b-c down in a Bull market and
5down, a-b-c up in a Bear.

The fact that the third wave gapped going up and NOT down tells me that the trend changed for a short Bull run. That's why I stressed an A-B-C for the fourth. I think we are going to have a run up before Zev's prediction takes hold. I'm always hoping no one else agrees with me because when too many people climb on the same train it doesn't happen. Right now we have completed an a-b-c-x-a-b-c zig zag in the fourth although it's rather large and it may well be an "A" of Wave 2 after having completed Wave 1 up. I still think, however, we are in Wave 1 and are now rising into Wave 5 of Wave 3 of Wave 1.

My take hasn't changed regarding the length or severity of the Bear. Needless to say you are using OTHER indicators with e-wave analysis, yes?

I work during the day so active daytrading isn't on my agenda. I also find real estate in South Florida to be almost bullet proof.

Good trading.

As of this hour we are in Wave 4 of Wave 1 up. We had a truncated fifth for Wave 3 of Wave 1. Also Wave 4 may turn into an an A-B-C and end in the gap above 7900. That's my bet.

Patience.

As of this hour we are in Wave 4 of Wave 1 up. We had a truncated fifth for Wave 3 of Wave 1.

Patience.

I agree 8250 is quite important.

I doubt that Wave 1 will exceed 8200 on Wednesday. I am expecting Wave 2 to retrace most of Wave 1 and thus lend support to the Bearish case again. Once Wave 2 is completed, however, the real game will begin. I'll be looking at the RSIs, etc. to see if this was merely a bounce or the beginnings of something bigger and better. If we take out 7200 on the retracement then something more ominious is afoot. (It may even be an arm and a leg!!)

Porter

Smart Money--

Please bring back the frog. He's sensational!!! There's a world wide decline in their populations and scientists still do not know what to attribute it to. Climatic change, perhaps?

--Porter

Will this appear on your monthly statement?<g>

Isn't the frog getting tired yet?<ggg>

<Porter- I thought you would looking for a bigger up move here...you changing?>

No, I'm NOT changing. We are completing Wave 1 up here. It may go to 8200 before giving back a substantial amount of today's gain which would be Wave 2. The bottom line is that this is only Wave 1 of a five wave sequence that should take us to 8700-8900. Then Zeev's decline is operative.

Zeev is in a Bear suit but it's not zipped up.<g>

An impressive run up the ladder before we resume the Bear decline.

<What makes this 5% rally from 2 PM Friday to 10 AM today, a 2:30hr jam job, any different then any other of the bear market rallies.>

It was an impulse wave and NOT a corrective wave.

Finishing up wave 4 of wave 3 of wave 1.

Getting interesting.

Zev--

Remission time.

Zev

Remission time.

Your post overlooked a few facts so I let google.com do the walkin'.

In the 1920's Homestake mining introduced a new technological advancement in mining called the St. Joe shovel. This improved extraction rates dramatically. In short they were able to mine MORE ore thus accounting for the rise in their stock. In short it had nothing to do with the price of gold!!That small fact seems to be overlooked by the gold site you pulled your information from unless Gold stocks now have a new St. Joe shovel. <gg>

My favorite is the following chart:

http://goldmarkets.homestead.com/historical_gold_prices.html


Cheers
Porter

<Myth #6......The market can't crash from here.>

That's NOT a myth, that's a fact.<g>
The secular Bear has years to run and Friday marked "remission" time.

Also the author of the article George posted feels Deflation is NOT a threat. Interesting, no? It just feels like the world is STILL awash in over-capacity and excess inventory. (Watch Detroit in the coming months.) The writer also makes no mention of China and it's Deflationary presence. Perhaps he hasn't had enough time to look at all the items he's purchased in the last six months and where they came from!!! And is anyone watching...(drum roll)... South Korea and it's new automobile and SUV models?

Last but not least is Gold. It rose with the blessing of the Fed to BRAKE the dollar's VELOCITY of decline. When Gold falls(as it will) we will be back again to fighting Deflation.
It's not a pretty picture but it will take year to reach Dow 1600-2745 and reach it we will. Richard Russell has been pushing Gold for a good eight years but he's to be forgiven. His thesis that the Fed's sole drive now is "inflate or die" is, however, correct.

In the meantime: "Correlation does NOT mean causation" so forget Iraq and get back to TA.

Cheers,
Porter

Zeev,

Friday's close punctuated a change in market-maker sentiment<g>. Looking at the "daily" stochastics and RSI readings for DIA, MSFT and the QQQ it would appear the case can be made for 8700-9100 by April fool's day or sooner. This should clean out the oddlot short sales which commenced from that level. Bears are expecting the market to resume its decline from the 8000-8200 level. I'm betting this will only be Wave 1 of the rise. The decline you envison IMTO has been delayed for the time being.
The Bear has gone back into hibernation. If the Oddlots rise in the next day or two it will be a melt-up.
How does Iraq play into the above? It doesn't. It's TA all the way.

Hoping for a few dollars,
Porter

Nice post.
It's time to fill the overhead gaps.<g>

Zev,

Not being an active day trader I watch the Oddlot shortsales as a running five-day average. When it goes over a million a day, for long extended periods of time, as is the case now, severe declines more than 10% are seldom seen (which is where we are now. Declines of 5% to 7% are the norm before we bounce.) My feelings are that that we are close to a tradeable bottom. That's been expressed on this thread as well. Right now DIA looks to be in a well-organized down channel with lower highs and lower lows and until we break through the DIA 78.50 marker with conviction I will continue to sit quietly on a rock. Hopefully rigor mortis will turn into rigor rightis!!

I am curious to know whether we are witnessing complacency or resignation. (More importantly Western impatience doesn't shorten the duration of Bear markets. Years to run is a given.)

Lastly, posting your cash position tells us that you are better than you actual are.<g>

All the best.
Porter

Zev--

Odd-lots as you point out have become somewhat dated, yet, on Thursday, while the equity P/C ratio looked benign the Oddlots hit a one day historic high. I found that to be of interest.

Thanks for your response.

--Porter

Odd lots as you point out have become somewhat dated yet on Thursday while the equity P/C ratio looked benign the Oddlots hit a one day historic high. I found that to be of interest.

Thanks for your response.

Zeev,

When you look at "Sentiment" indicators do you look at odd-lot short sales ?

What is the bu$$?

Thank you for this thread. Your candor and skill are a rare mix.

--Porter

Chanik,

I’m so confused. I have all of these indicators coming at me and I can not even see across the room with all of this bear fur in the air. There’s Gann angles, e-Waves, P&F charts, candles...
My preference of course is two "pick-up sticks" and a dead cat. After you drop the cat from atop a ladder you measure the angle between its tail bone and its tail. An obtuse angle should be viewed with caution and an acute angle signals the need to drop the cat again.
The two sticks are only there to confuse as are so many stock indicators.
So here we are with the equity P/C ratio and VIX back at sleepy-time and everyone is waiting for what? Good people are waiting for bad people to capitulate and my newspaper today even had a full page ad telling me to buy gold. (Do they deliver like Dominoes?)

Everyone has his own prediction. Who said: “If one predicts, predict often.”<g>

Perhaps the little guy is resigned to his Bear fate and it will be the institutions who create the flight to frenzy. All in all, we are witnessing an entropic event: an EQUILIBRIUM of disorder.

I’m waiting...and waiting...but, alas, I forgot what I am waiting for.

To paraphrase Mr. Twain who is smiling down at us:

History never repeats itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

Who says they do not ring the bell at the (first) top? This honor went to Sinclair.

Twenty years ago it was James Dine.

Thank you(!) for your post yesterday authored by Vesselin. I wasn't aware he was next door.<g>

A great TA resource for those interested in this.

<my next target ...is around 7500> (7490 nominal)

You'll have a lot of e-wave company at that number, Zev. Perhaps too much.

What is of interest are the blocks (88000, 85900, 85900) that traded AH for DIA. All at the same price. The AH for DIA has been asleep all week.
IMTO, a two day bounce is closer than you think.

Sentiment is still "complacency."

Do YOU understand that they covered at a profit!!!! They turned when the market turned.

Dan,

My point is that you MAY want to step aside and miss the coming correction. I think the easy money in the Au stocks has been made.

I do like RGLD but AFTER the pullback.

All the best.

<WRONG. Look at the '93 run in gold to 400+. Commercials were short the entire time.>

So you're saying they were short all of 1993? WOW. They were only if you are reading the graph standing on your head(!). They changed direction February 7th at the bottom. Do take another look.

Is this "Yoga TA"?

You are looking at a plateau of distribution since 1/3 for the Au stocks.

The Commercials always prevail.

Zeev


With the cboe p/c ratio nearing a bullish signal and public shorting at a historical high I assume you are not wearing your Bear outfit for late Tuesday/ early Wednesday.

A 2/3 retracement and more is coming...

The spring is being merely pulled back.

So Basserdan,

The question remains.

What's your EXIT strategy for AU stocks? The Commercials don't have you worried, the throngs of advisors that are now pitching Gold don't have you worried...

Between catchin' them ten pound mother hawgs, surely this question has arose. I know the Rappala 9G Gold is your favorite, but right now, how do you know they are not building a stealth plateau of distribution around you? (Hey don't let the perfect Ocala weather fool you!!)

P.S. RGLD is my favorite pick. I just see oil and gold falling back to earth. (Le Carre's essay just took down Blair.)