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QS...I don't know if that chart is accurate or not but, I do know my brokerage account balance says Zeev is a genius.
What else matters?
Gizmo
Once 1300 is broken...where do your turnips see the bulls making their next stand? 1263?
Gizmo
Yeah right, always wrong, perma bull.
Gizmo
Good answer!
Gizmo
A most useful post. If true, I stand to benefit greatly on my leveraged short fund which is already up 16.5% this month.
Gizmo
I'd be happy to be bullish if I thought stocks were worth their cost. I don't believe the bull will return until valuations descend to their historic average. Down is the path of least resistance until all that 401k and IRA money gives up in disgust.
Gizmo
"To the extent I can, I will try and stem such an ugly tide."
Zeev Hed, your efforts do not go unnoticed, but your task is daunting. Apparently, the offenders on this thread, do not get the audience they seek on the politics board.
Gizmo
Taken from Big Dog's BOOM Boom Room on SI
To:Big Dog who started this subject
From: Big Dog Thursday, Jan 9, 2003 10:23 AM
Respond to of 16639
From Morgan Stanley
Oil Services & Equipment: Opportunity Knocks - Drillers Look Attractive on NAV -Industry View: ATTRACTIVE. We like both the drillers
and service companies at current valuations. We expect the real momentum to be in the service names and land drillers once the
domestic rig count turns. But after the most recent sell off we see the asset-intensive offshore drillers as most interesting from a riskreward
perspective. We believe the OSX could deliver a relative rally from current levels on a US invasion of Iraq. Consensus "sell on
war" might be wrong given current valuations and strong option value in stocks.
Taken from an AOL O&G Board and I might add this guy has a history of knowing what he is talking about.
Subject: Re: Strong Buys: RIG, DO
Date: 1/1/03 4:07 PM US Eastern Standard Time
From: P Engr
Message-id: <20030101160753.10317.00116642@mbs-m08.aol.com>
>Do you have any insight into why RIG and DO have remained undervalued?
Primarily because the market is focusing
on the short-term rather than a longer term.
Hence, the best RS has been those contractors whose rig fleet utilizations
respond quickest to higher commodity prices.
Hence, the land contractors (NBR, PTEN) then the shallow water rigs: Barges and
jackups, then lastly the deep water rigs:
semis and drillships.
Semi's: RIG is the world's largest owner
with (46) of the world's 175.
DO is second largest with 30.
Then comes: NE (13), GSfF (11),
PDE (10).
Jackups: RIG is the world's largest owner
with (56) of the world's 386.
Next comes: GSF (47), ESV (43),
NE(34), PDE(31) and RDC (25)
Drillships: RIG is the largest with (12) of the
world's 40.
Next comes GSF (4), NE (3) and
DO has (1).
As confidence builds that the commodity prices are sustainable (which 5year futures
on NG of $4 indicate such), then the Industry
will commit ever increasing long-term E&P capital budgets, which will chase the deep
water rigs of RIG and DO. And the Advantage
that they have over the shallow water and
land drillers, is that the EBITDA margins
that were fetched in the last boom (as high as
75%) will be locked into long term (3-5year)
contacts. Whereas, the land and shallow
water rigs will mostly be short term contracts
and utilization will bust quickly if the commodity prices drop.
>How has the FLC/RIG merger progressed and what is the condition of the old
>FLC assests?
They recently annouced that they are spinning off the shallow the shallow water
rigs through an IPO---proceeds to RIG and
class B voting stock stays with RIG.
> I have had the impression that the RIG management is not altogether on top
>of things but this could simply be an ignorant position on my part.
RIG's management is very progressive.
They have lead the industry in developing
the state of the art, 5th generation rigs.
They are "bold"----they took on lots of debt
($4.7 billion presently) to build this fleet
of the largest and most technologically advanced in the world.
IMHO, the management has demonstrated
an outstanding track record for executing
a well thought out long-term growth plan.
The company is in a enviable position to
it's peers.
>How are RIG and DO positioned for the necessary increase in NG drilling?
Short term---GOM jackup owners (RDC and
ESV) are in highest demand area of the
market.
But, once again, as the Energy crisis intensifies, ALL of the rigs will become
fully utilized-----And Competed For!!!
RIG and DO's 4th and 5th gens. will
fetch the $250-300,000+ daily contracts!!!
The present Situation---where RIG and
DO are being ignored by wallstreet, is
an extraordinary opportunity. Though I
am Very bullish on the entire group of
drillers, I think that these 2 ---presently
trading in the low 20's-----relative to
GSF at 25, RDC at 23, ESV 29 and NE at
35------
represents an Outstanding opportunity.
I would utilize this opportunity to rotate
from the the others INTO RIG (#1) and
DO(#2).
Enjoy the Moves!!
All IMHO!!
P Engr.
Zeev, entered RIG @ 21.95 and DO @ 21.06. Worth a look IMO for a run to the top of the channel. Behind Nasdaq stocks, drilling stocks are possibly the next most volatile for trading.
Gizmo
Cancel
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Out of Intel 16.70 AH. For bucker plus.
Gizmo
In Intel 15.57
Gizmo
New highs exceed new lows per Yahoo. Tax loss selling with institutions taking the day off?
Gizmo
Loaded the boat on QQQ 25.01. 24.79 stop.
Gizmo
XAU looks range bound inside a narrowing triangle formation. It appears to me it could take another month or two to resolve. I'm interested in the sector but will wait for chart resolution. Good Luck to you.
Gizmo
Retail sales comparisons from last year are easy due to 9-11.
Gizmo
Do you have an inkling of where that leadership may lie? I believe it will be in Pharma/Healthcare/Biotech. Looking at JNJ and IDPH but have not pulled the trigger yet. Also, CVX (ChevronTexaco)as a swing into next year.
Gizmo
Wahz, does your model see this rally as Zeev's does, that is a cyclical bull within a secular bear? Thanks
Gizmo
In NOVN @ 10.14. Sellers not motivated but so far neither are the buyers.
Gizmo
What I'd really like to see is dividends made exempt from income taxes. Heard on Bulls & Bears this AM a fella named Tobias was predicing this in the next 12 months and thought a good strategy was to buy dividend paying stocks now. This would be great for investors because historically 40% of stock returns are from dividends. Alas, I doubt our goverment can be counted on to do what's smart.
Gizmo
Reality is setting in.
Gizmo
Joe Stocks, look at chart for CHK.
Gizmo
Joe, I play about half my portfolio for dividend yield. I can do better with high yield funds HYF and DHF, about 20% yield and are ETF's. Also have non-ETF's which yield 10 - 11% but are more secure. The NAV's have been rising which greatly increases my gains.
Gizmo
Actively selling today now at 60% cash 40% High yield Bonds. Equity market feels toppy here.
Gizmo
'Mornin' Zeev. Do you think NOVN is a fundamentally sound investment @ 10.50 - 11.00. I'm looking at a 3 - 6 month time horizon.
Gizmo
I thought it was in my turnips opinion.
Gizmo
George, High Yield is making a nice move. I'm in Sphix, Fagix, and Jahyx. Still yielding around 10%.
Gizmo
IYTO has the cyclical bull within the secular bear started?
Gizmo
OMG Insider Transactions:
Date Name Transaction Num Shares Price(s) Value
09/09/02 BARON RONALD Purchased 4,670 $52.81 $246,636
08/28/02 PLOURDE KATHERINE L Purchased 1,000 $53.28 $53,280
08/07/02 BARON RONALD Purchased 3,113 $46.28 $144,070
08/01/02 MIKLICH THOMAS R Purchased 4,000 $46.89 $187,560
07/31/02 BARON RONALD Purchased 7,784 $46.75 $363,902
07/30/02 MOONEY JAMES P Purchased 7,000 $50.10 $350,700
06/18/02 BARON RONALD Purchased 9,108 $63.64 $579,633
Gizmo
Plunge Protection Team.
Just chiming in here <g> Good post.
Gizmo
George, see post #39384.
Gizmo
Thank You. eom
When the retrenchment starts do you think NEM will go down with the market or the opposite?
Gizmo
My thinking is that all the market has to do is stabilize. If the bonds can hold a stable price I'll be happy to collect the interest payments. If the yield continues to rise I'll keep buying.......as long as the bond prices aren't falling faster than the premiums are coming in.
Gizmo
a·byss
An immeasurably deep chasm, depth, or void: “lost in the vast abysses of space and time” (Loren Eiseley).
The primeval chaos out of which it was believed that the earth and sky were formed.
The abode of evil spirits; hell.
Gizmo
Zigi, why so bullish?
Gizmo
George S Cole........Any thoughts on high yield bonds? I've locked in the 10 1/2% yield on SPHIX (Fidelity High Income Bond). Also, will be adding to stock funds accumulated Mon.,Tues., and Wed. as we correct this Thurs. Fri. ramp.
Gizmo