is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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I swear that somebody posted that the main issue or cost factor for P2O companies was the high cost of feedstock. The argument followed, JBI's feedstock was free, therefore they had a huge competitive advantage over other P2O companies. The next statement was that because of this advantage, JBI would be immediately profitable when they started producing oil.
Who said anything about soybeans? I didn't. I hate beans.
If you are talking about a comparison with other GREEN technologies completely unrelated like soybeans or corn, that is a different matter. Then let's stop talking about feedstock. In the whole scheme of things, the cost is inconsequential. Without the bigger picture being in place, it really will not matter.
oh... and.. ROFL!!
but what difference does it make to JBI whether or not the feedstock is free? the cost is inconsequential anyway.
One of the industrial gases products that i worked on utilized a carbon-based feedstock to make Carbon Dioxide. Since carbon is a greenhouse gas, our suppliers were glad to get rid of it, and gave it to us at a nominal cost. the other feedstock was oxygen, which would have a definite cost because we were the internal suppliers of that gas... feedstock cost never came up in our profitability analysis or significantly in Project Cost.
same case here... the costs of the P2O machine and associates process equipment and instrumentation,and likely operating costs, will dwarf the cost of feedstock.
my main curiosity about the cost of feedstock is why it is viewed as such an issue in the first place.
It has been posted that, given the assumption that feedstock is the main challenge facing a P2O Venture, since JBI will be receiving feedstock for FREE, that automatically that makes JBII an immediately profitable and successful company.
I find that hard to believe.
If that came from JBI documents, including filings, I would question it.
I think that the cost of feedstock is a small percentage of the total cost of operating the plant. I would guess 5-10%. Hence it makes no real differnece to JBIs success or failure.
I would need objective proof to believe otherwise..
Therefore I believe this whole conversation to be somewhat tangential IMO...
this contract could simply be a blanket agreement, with no set delivery commitments. this debate is a bit tangential... contract or not it really does not matter.. to the overall cost picture.
furthermore, what about handling costs? I bet those are substantial regardless of the cost of the plastic itself... i would guess more than the cost of the plastic itself.
he is a secret agent now... (.007)... LOL.
well.. it is similar to work i have done... green technology.. has great promise and appeal... just likely not cost-effective, as are most green technologies. unfortunately...
no... i don't think it will see 3 digits again..
i find jbii a very interesting stock, given my industrial experience.
the general understanding of the valuation of this stock (JBII) through my industrial experience...
actually, i thought the costs were a bit on the low side, but at least they are reasonable.
Costs internally are never just salary. It is always the loaded labor rate, which for that company I worked for was $100/hour. Only difference between that and what JBI would sell it for would be margin. Margin for consulting firms is huge, like maybe 100%.
anyway, this is something I could come back to later...
well yes, but i don't have time right now to have a good look at the financials either. I am talking about the total cost of the plant, and i am not sure exactly what that 200k figure refers to, it might just be a component. The total cost of the plant is the only useful number for looking at profitability.
another poster posted the "JV Costs", which had a reasonable list of the costs. It worked out to 1.3M, which is close to my estimate of 1M - 2M.
this post here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53587996
that is more like it!!! that is good, i am going to have to look that up...
i don't really understand your post, because we are in violent agreement, that is likely exactly what he said.
"even with the gas compression system..." validates my point.
"can be leveraged across multiple processors..." validates my point, meaning it is best suited for a larger multiple processor configuration.
GOOD DD RAWNOC!!!
GO JBII GO...
In this post:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53102920
all I did was use the same components (Project Management, Engineering, Equipment, Construction, and Commissioning/ Startup) as I have seen commonly in 3 or 4 years of Engineering/ Construction project work. The high-level structure is always the same. Those costs are there regardless of how they are accounted for.
I then applied some percentages based on other projects to come up with the numbers... they seem reasonable...
One job I did was very similar. It involved a liquifier (analagous to processor), a storage tank (analogous to blending station), a construction contract, and commissioning/ startup... it even involved equipment and engineering services from China.
I can't argue with F/S numbers that I am not familiar with, so I am not. But, it may depend on how the costs are accounted for. I would have to look into it.
An individual estimate would contain hundreds of line items, so I cannot possibly detail everything... and btw the permit was only $1000.
given the recent high volumes and the lack of prise appreciation, I would have to surmise that the expectation of imminent production is all that is keeping it up there...
Good point.. Nice to get some objective numbers. I will tell you what I will take a closer look at the financials and get back to you on it. I still have not looked at the 10K. You raise a good point, the financials would be where these things are valuated.
At my company the end product of a project was capitalized and depreciated.... so I need to look it up. I will get back to you.
Just so you know, my personal experience and intuition come first. I believe in what I post until proven wrong... even to the point of suspecting the accouinting methods used.
maybe... i can't prove it either way....
i would think that "air filter" would be on the intake of a process. to purify, remove moisture... i was thinking it could be part of the p2O machine.
Air ventilation = ventilating the space around the machine, because of fumes. I would think a customer would take care of that themselves... would not be efficient for JBI to worry about it.
haha... in looking at the picture... I see:
- piping
- welds
- vessels
- etc...
one would have to include indirect costs such as overhead... etc
- fabrication
- engineering
- construction (someone has to build it..)
- startup/ commissioning costs
- a control system, insrumentation..
i don't know exactly what "processor" means... and air conditioner is an appliance you plug in... this is not.. for one thing, whoever buys it has to get it built... you can't just turn it on.
when we compare with the Envion 7M plant, you have to compare apples with apples. Certain components of the Envion plant may be similar... I am talking about the whole thing...
that is the cost to the operator. 1M - 2M... not 200K. 200K is peanuts...
anyway, we are likely playing word games here. Cost is COst.
M theory is that the total cost of this plant will end up in the 7 figures, the million dollar range... that is my point.
not land, everything I am thinking of is in the pictures that z keeps on putting up..
a representative list is here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53102920
well i guess posters can listen for themselves and make their own judgement. He may have said that JBI was not going to be a costly multi-million dollar operation, but he definitely also said that the off-gas processing was taking them in that direction.
i encourage everybody to listen to it.
Actually, your post is wrong. If you listen to the CC, JB even says that the off-gas compression system is taking them in the direction of larger plants. What you are saying is pretty complicated, but the statement bottom line is there on the tape. It only stands to reason that this is true. Why build an off-gas storage/compression (and cooling) system for one P2O plant?
and you are blilndly assuming the 200k figure is correct. The only way to find out is to get a professional estimator to look at it. They would be able to tell you within 25% based on the pictures that z has posted.
Here is my analysis:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53102920
I am not an estimator, that is not my expertise, but i was in fact asked to do this in my last job (I was not there long... lol).
200k WPF... (When Pigs Fly).
almost guaranteed that the cost of a P2O plant will be higher than currently "projected". One definite piece of evidence of that is the necessity for an off-gas system... and this is more efficient the larger the plant..
plus all of the efficiency estimates are based on a lab report... it is only an indicator of reality, not reality itself..
like my post said, i don't see the synergy between JBI and an air filtration company, and the relation to medical waste.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=53581506
i don't see the synergy. air filtration implies to me that it can be used when air is INPUT to a process. this is in addition to the most logical application, which is to ventilate air within a building that would house a p2O processor.
We used air filtration on that input in our processes when i worlked for an industrial gases company. that would make sense to me, except that i am not sure if it is applicable for the P2O processor.
the air filtration (as used on an intake), I also don't know how it would apply to P2O.
EIther way, I don't see the synergy and why he mentions medical waste in particular. Oinly thing I can think is that there must be some emissions into the building, which should not happen anyway. Other possibility, it is required by regulations to have a system in place when dealing with medical waste..
either way above, i do not see the synergy.
it is just common sense that he is making test runs as neccessary. There is no inventory of 3 months worth of fuel that is going to be sold as soon as he gets a permit.
In the CC he said that he had been able to run it in steady state for periods of time
Furthermore, they have a temporary permit for testing purposes to get ready for the stack test. They can't sell fuel from a process that may be polluting, so how can they be running 24/7 with a profit motive?
Just commmon sense.
not huge. test runs only.
yawn... setting up manufacturing, distribution, and a bit of marketing are all things i just expect a company to do...
don't think the canadian halt would have much effect, since it trades on the OTC..
i think it ridiculous to think of any one investor adding upward pressure. that is against market principles and dangerous... same argument for stocks that have a so-called "small float".
that is a renewal of the order that i saw that went to the 19th. I was able to sell and am now out.
well i have given up on this... i think there is a distinct possibility of two things happening:
- some kind of general trading halt
- a Reverse Split
either of which makes this a GAME OVER situation.. and no significant price rise.
in anycase, i have accepted that I f'ed this one up and will move on.
GLTA
yup. check out the chart... every crash has been preceded by it being Overbought... today it is lookign a little better.
well the last of price appreciation should worry you.. anyway, that is just charting.
as far as attitudes go, maybe you are just talking about this board. That does not represent sentiment as a whole. The reason for the attitudes are not strong either:
- JBI managed to do something right (release financials on time)
- JB is not talking, hence nothing to talk about, shoot at.
- something to look forward to: stack test, sales
- both sides have pretty much exhausted all available arguments.
- nothing has been proven conclusively..
the above is not stuff of which celebrations are in order for...
hence we wait...
the Sellers want to get their money, likely at a profit (assuming they bought at .80). But there will only be so many buyers... when they run out.... LOOKOUT..
and LOOKOUT when the price goes below .80. Panic will set in!!!
anyway the Money Flow Indicator confirms all this... it is Overbought as we speak... I give it until mid next-week tops before it goes for another dive in the pyrolysis soup...
LOOK OUT BELOW!!!
does the lack of PRICE RISE not worry you?
correction "we" don't know.
depends on my ability to calculate a P/E.
At the current share price opf .80 and assuming a P/E of 10, they need to make .02/quarter...
we have NO IDEA what this stock is worth at this time. No accurate idea of costs, some of revenures...
if they immediately make .02/quarter to justify the current share price... i will say.. congratulations... actually they had better make better than .02... (that is just my .02)..
unless they do that...
ROTFLMFAO....
we won't know immediately... we will get news, but no numbers for awhile...
most of you longs are out for the most part aren't you brig? the shares you still have are free right?
i agree. people seemed to be saying that "bad weather days" would stop production and i think that assertion is pretty lame.