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Wade - SMCI had a forward PE of 14 at the start of 2021 and 2022 ... where are you seeing that it never got over 9 ???? Historically it has been MUCH higher than 9. The big correction is the tech sector is the reason the PE is now so low.
Analysts have been very wrong on their estimates which the company has been consistently beating by a wide margin .... so one can't put much credence in them. It will be interesting to see the Q3 guidance. I think analysts will be ratcheting up their estimates yet again.
The recent short attack is biased, of course, but does point out some business risks going forward, so that bears watching.
SMCI (78.87) raises Dec Q2 guidance to midpoint $3.15 adj from $2.77 previously -
Supermicro (Nasdaq: SMCI), a Total IT Solution Provider for Cloud, AI/ML, Storage, and 5G/Edge, today announced preliminary financial information for its second quarter of fiscal 2023 ended December 31, 2022.
Due to Supermicro's expanding markets and diversified customer base adopting our rack-scale Total IT Solutions, Supermicro anticipates the following results:
Expected Range
Prior Guidance
Net sales
$1.77B to $1.80B
$1.7B to $1.8B
GAAP diluted net income per common share
$2.95 to $3.10
$2.54 to $2.81
Non-GAAP diluted net income per common share
$3.07 to $3.22
$2.64 to $2.90
This unaudited financial information is based on preliminary results and management's estimates and is inherently uncertain and subject to revision in connection with the Company's financial closing procedures and finalization of the Company's financial statements for its second quarter of fiscal 2023. Actual results for the second quarter of fiscal 2023 may differ materially from these preliminary unaudited financial results.
Conference Call and Webcast Information
Supermicro will release second quarter of fiscal 2023 financial results in a press release on Tuesday, January 31, 2023, after the close of regular trading. The Company will hold a phone conference to discuss these results with investors and financial analysts beginning at 2:00 p.m. Pacific Time (PST).
NG looks technically oversold at $3.35/mcf and will surely bounce if we get some bullish news like an inflow of arctic air or a restart at Freeport ..... but barring that, the mid to high $2's are possible by early March. jmho
I'm trading the NG futures options which gives me a short position at higher prices but a long position at lower prices .... so yes, effectively I'm slightly long below $3.50 and increasingly long in the low $3's to high $2's. My short calls are all out of the money and very profitable so far .....
KOLD +4.71 to 42.42 as NG prices continue to plunge with the front month futures down to $3.36/mcf and the March contract threatening to break below $3/mcf.
If the winter continues to stay relatively mild and Freeport continues to push out its reopening, we could see a NatGas glut this spring ! Great for consumers, but bad for producers.
Mixed results for the big banks, GS disappointing yesterday, but decent results from JPM and BAC last Friday.
PPI released this morning shows rapidly cooling core inflation and negative overall inflation due to plunging energy prices -
briefing -
The Producer Price Index for final demand decreased 0.5% month-over-month in December (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) following a revised 0.2% increase in November (from 0.3%). The index for final demand, less foods and energy, increased 0.1% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%) following a revised 0.2% increase in November (from 0.4%).
Earnings season kicks off tomorrow morning with several big banks reporting .... the coming weeks will be interesting and if corporate earnings and guidance are disappointing overall, the market could correct by 5 to 10% .... we'll see what happens.
QS +.22 to 7.43, is worth a look. A developmental stage leader in cutting edge solid state EV batteries, the stock has been beaten down from a frothy peak of around $130 three years ago when EV stocks were red hot ..... Volkswagen is a major shareholder and joint venture partner of Quantum Scape.
QS looks like a speculative buy at around $7, imho. I recently picked up a small position.
CPI was negative inflation, which is unusual. Yes services up 0.3%, But that's just 3.6% annually, much slower than it has been .... this report was good news but also anticipated so the market is fairly flat today.
It's now highly likely we get just a 0.25% increase from the Fed in February. Just a small chance for 0.5%.
S&P futures turn higher as CPI shows inflation cooling, inline with expectations, reporting negative 0.1% inflation for December with core up 0.3% - these are good numbers, but already priced into the market. Maybe we'll get a sell the news reaction after the rally of the past week ?
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/consumer-prices-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html
SMCI -6.52 to 78.25, thanks for posting the rebuttal. I added a few shares today, hedged with options.
GERN +.22 to 3.17, nice call, are you taking quick profits with the stock up 35% from last Thursday's low ?
CPPMF +.15 to 1.57, has rallied due to strength in copper prices which have surged from $3.70/lb last Wednesday to $4.02 this morning on optimism about increased demand from China as they lift COVID related restrictions.
TGB has also rallied along with copper giant FCX
LPI now trading as VTLE due to corporate name change -
TULSA, OK, Jan. 08, 2023 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vital Energy, Inc. (NYSE: VTLE) ("Vital" or the "Company") today announced the completion of the Company’s rebranding and on Monday, January 9, 2023, will begin trading under the ticker "VTLE" on the NYSE. The Company’s new website is www.vitalenergy.com.
Additionally, Vital updated its outlook for fourth-quarter 2022 production and incurred capital expenditures.
Fourth-Quarter 2022 Production and Incurred Capital Expenditure Outlook
Oil production is expected to be approximately 35.5 thousand barrels of oil per day ("MBO/D"), exceeding guidance of 32.0 - 34.0 MBO/D
Total production is expected to be approximately 77.5 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day ("MBOE/D"), higher than guidance of 72.5 - 75.5 MBOE/D
Incurred capital expenditures are expected to be within the Company’s guidance range of $135 - $145 million
Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2022 Earnings Release and Conference Call
Vital plans to report complete fourth-quarter and full-year 2022 financial and operating results after market close on Tuesday, February 21, 2023, and host a conference call and webcast on Wednesday, February 22, 2023 at 7:30 a.m. CT.
Earnings season kicks off next week with a bunch of big banks reporting Friday morning .....
F +.33 to 12.58, I added some shares today .... Ford has seen a sharp sales increase in its EV cars and trucks, trades at just 7x 2023 estimates and pays a nearly 5% dividend. The stock looks like a bargain, still down over 50% from its 52wk high .....
Good point, the ISM data was the icing on the cake and evidently even more encouraging than the Jobs number.
SPX
S&P500 +93 to 3901, the market clearly liked this morning's December Jobs report !
The FED fund futures are now showing rates peaking below 5% with a 75% chance of just a 0.25% hike in February.
Yeah, the ISM report shows a significantly weakening economy -
ISM -
Economic activity in the services sector contracted in December after 30 consecutive months of growth -
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/december/
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/december/
I think the market is fully valued here, so I expect volatile range bound trading for the coming months, pending more earnings reports, guidance and visibility.
SPX
This was a good report .... wage inflation was down sharply, not just a tiny bit. Last month it was 0.6% (12 x 0.6% = 7.2% annualized). This month it's down by 50% to 3.6% annualized. Also they revised last month down to 4.8% annualized. So it's an excellent trend and makes a soft landing more likely. Of course it's only 1 month, so can't draw conclusions, but it's encouraging.
S&P Futures move higher after the December Jobs number meets expectations and average hourly earnings come in cooler than expected -
briefing -
December Nonfarm Payrolls 223K vs. 210K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 256K from 263K
December Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.3% vs. 0.4% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 0.4% from 0.6%
Wade: GERN - have you considered doubling down after the capital raise offering prices ?
KOLD +5.64 to 36.29, a 250% gain in the past 6 weeks ! NatGas prices finally coming back down to earth. Great news for consumers.
NG -.52 to 3.65/mcf.
GERN -.42 to 2.77, Imetelstat has been around for over a decade and they've failed to find a use for it, until maybe now ? They are a serial diluter, share count up 100% in just the last 3 years and recently settled a class action lawsuit for misleading investors. It remains to be seen whether the FDA approves this drug and if so what the annual revenues will be since it's a rare cancer. At best some modest revenues in 2024, but profitability is years away, if ever.
Good luck, maybe it gets a bounce back to $3.50 once the capital raise completes, but I'd use that as a selling opportunity.
Meme stocks like BBBY, GME and AMC have really gotten crushed ..... financial fundamentals have gained the upper hand over crowd sourcing ......
BBBY, Bed Bath and Beyond, issued a warning this morning -
While the Company continues to pursue actions and steps to improve its cash position and mitigate any potential liquidity shortfall, based on recurring losses and negative cash flow from operations for the nine months ended November 26, 2022 as well as current cash and liquidity projections, the Company has concluded that there is substantial doubt about the Company's ability to continue as a going concern. The Company continues to consider all strategic alternatives including restructuring or refinancing its debt, seeking additional debt or equity capital, reducing or delaying the Company's business activities and strategic initiatives, or selling assets, other strategic transactions and/or other measures, including obtaining relief under the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. These measures may not be successful.
Tough talk from the FED but I think they'll only raise rates by 0.25% in February.
Good luck with GERN. Commercial launch for Imetelstat is probably at least 18 months away and profitability much longer, if ever.
Homebuilders off to an excellent start to the year - despite some soft quarters ahead the long term outlook is excellent -
YTD -
TKR % Change Cur Price Start Price
NAIL 11% 33.96 30.66
CCS 8% 53.97 50.01
MHO 7% 49.55 46.18
TMHC 6% 32.32 30.35
LGIH 6% 98.28 92.6
GRBK 6% 25.65 24.23
TPH 6% 19.63 18.59
MTH 5% 97.03 92.2
LSEA 5% 5.46 5.21
KBH 5% 33.35 31.85
BZH 4% 13.31 12.76
PHM 4% 47.41 45.53
TOL 4% 51.87 49.92
LEN 3% 93.61 90.5
DHI 3% 91.64 89.14
AVERAGE RETURN = 6%
The December jobs report this Friday morning and then CPI next Thursday will influence the market direction.
SPX
LPI -.06 to 48.37 after hitting a new 52wk low of 46.70 this morning .... you were right, it could easily drop below $46 in another market selloff or if oil prices fall further. Yikes, looks super cheap, but getting even cheaper. They're about 70% oil revenues depending on relative prices.
TSLA (108) longtime Tesla bull, Dan Ives of Wedbush, turns cautious -
briefing -
Tesla: Further Thoughts on Tesla Weakness; This is a Fork in the Road For Musk/Tesla -- Wedbush (108.10)
Analyst Dan Ives commented, "The major sell-off in Tesla stock yesterday post softer 4Q deliveries was clearly an ominous start for the company to kick off 2023 after a horrific 2022 for the stock with a black cloud now forming over the story. The major worry now overhead for Tesla is that the demand story especially out of China is showing heavy cracks in the armor at a time that EV competition is steadily increasing domestically with NIO, BYD, Xpeng, and others fighting for a smaller pie with the Chinese consumer weakening. With China representing 40%+ of the global growth story for Tesla this is a heavy concern for the Street which will likely result in more significant price cuts over the coming months to spur demand as a potential pricing war takes place to gain market share in a darker macro backdrop. As such, this leaves investors with more questions than answers on the Tesla story with global demand into an uncertain 2023 a stark contrast to the Cinderella story Musk & Co. have seen in China over the past few years which has catalyzed the Model 3/Y demand story."
AATC - thanks, the dividend is probably not sustainable .... I just checked the latest 10Q - cash is down sharply through Q3 -
Liquidity and Capital Resources
At September 30, 2022, we had $3.4 million in cash and cash equivalents compared to $8.2 million in cash and cash equivalents at December 31, 2021.
Net cash provided by operating activities was $0.3 million in the first nine months of 2022 compared to net cash provided by operating activities of $1.5 million in the same period in 2021. The decrease in cash provided by operating activities was a result of a decrease in net income and operating assets and liabilities. To avoid any unforeseen supply chain delays, the Company purchased an increased amount of inventory components in the first nine months of 2022 compared to the prior year. Additionally, the Company agreed to advance funds to fill component gaps in Econolite's production of our Autoscope Vision cameras to avoid any future production delays.
Net cash used for investing activities was $3.0 million for the first nine months of 2022 compared to $0.2 million in the same period in 2021. The increase in the amount of net cash used for investing activities in the first nine months of 2022 compared to the prior year period was primarily due to the purchase of $4.3 million of debt and equity securities and higher capitalized internal software development costs compared to the prior year period offset by sales of debt and equity securities of $1.9 million.
Net cash used for financing activities was $2.0 million in the first nine months of 2022 compared to net cash used for financing activities of $1.3 million in the same period in 2021. The increase of the amount of net cash used for financing activities was due to quarterly cash dividends of $0.12 per share paid to shareholders in each of the first three quarters of 2022, whereas we paid no dividends in the first quarter of 2021.
We believe that cash and cash equivalents on hand at September 30, 2022 and cash provided by operating activities will satisfy our projected working capital needs, investing activities, and other cash requirements for at least one year from September 30, 2022.
AATC -.10 to 3.50, I joined you in this one today .... as long as they keep the hefty $0.13 quarterly dividend and continue reporting financials on the OTC, the stock looks very cheap .... volume was a huge 430k today, but one concern will be lack of liquidity once the selling fades, so I'm keeping my position very small.
NatGas still a bit overpriced at $4/mcf considering that inventories will soon be at a surplus to the 5 year average ..... however it's technically oversold and I would expect at least a modest bounce in the coming weeks if the jet stream shifts as it usually does, and brings in some arctic air. Another upcoming catalyst will be the resumption of LNG exports by Freeport, although they may push out the restart yet again .....
KOLD
NG -.45 to 4.02/mcf on warm winter weather forecasts -
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
Wade: Congratulations on your outstanding 216% return for 2022, far exceeding the 82% return on SQQQ which was your primary holding. You traded in and out of your short position very effectively thus greatly enhancing your return.
I'll be very interested to see how you navigate the market volatility in 2023. My guess is that there'll be lots of ups and downs but that the market finishes the year down just 5% or so ..... that would result in a lot of decay in SQQQ, but maybe you can time the ups and downs successfully for another year ? Heck even if you're down 50% for 2023, which I doubt, you'd still be up an impressive 58% for the 2 year period ! Good luck in 2023.
HAPPY NEW YEAR !!!
SSK will probably accept your Pick 4 stocks 45 minutes late ..... as long as there isn't any big news out after the bell on any of your picks !
ONEW -.44 to 28.50, now down 55% from its 52wk high of 62.79 I added shares today ..... this boating retailer reported strong Sep Q4 results and guided for continued strong earnings in FY23, guiding for EPS of $9.50 midpoint, so a forward PE of 3. I'm skeptical of the guidance, especially if we get a recession, but the stock is very cheap regardless, with big earnings misses already fully priced in.
PR -
For fiscal full year 2023, OneWater anticipates same store sales to be up low to mid-single digits, despite an expected challenging macroeconomic environment. Adjusted EBITDA2 is expected to be in the range of $250 million to $260 million and earnings per diluted share is expected to be in the range of $9.25 to $9.75. Both of which include the previously announced Taylor Marine Centers acquisition, which closed on October 1, 2022 but excludes the recently announced Harbor View Marine acquisition, that has yet to close, and others that may be completed during the fiscal year 2023.
HZO (31.10) is also worth a look in the sector with a somewhat higher PE, but stronger balance sheet.