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You summed it up nicely git! Debt is cancer to our nations economic health as it is to our individual citizens. I ask you this though.........who is more traiterous, a president who heaps generations worth of debt on his fellow american citizens or the ceo(s) who ship american jobs overseas for sake of his own annual income and the corporations quarterly filings? By and large, we are a nation of fools who have gotten what we asked for in a president and in a marketplace. I think we'd all be wise to learn to read and speak Chinese, 'cause as far as I know, they own us!
"Obama urges House to approve $26 billion aid package
WASHINGTON – In brief remarks from the Rose Garden today, President Obama urged the U.S. House to approve a $26 billion package of aid to states that would bring $655 million to Massachusetts.
The money, "will help states avoid laying off police officers, firefighters, nurses and first responders," the president said. "This proposal is fully paid for, in part by closing tax loopholes that encourage corporations to ship American jobs overseas. So it will not add to our deficit. And the money will only go toward saving the jobs of teachers and other essential professionals.”
The U.S. Senate approved the aid package last week, overcoming a Republican filibuster. Massachusetts Republican Senator Scott Brown opposed the package, saying there were better ways to pay for it than by increasing taxes on multinational corporations. Other Republican senators decried the bill last week as a payoff for teachers’ unions.
The House is expected to vote on the package this afternoon.
"It should not be a partisan issue,” said Obama."
http://www.boston.com/news/politics/politicalintelligence/2010/08/obama_urges_hou.html
The first good thing to come out of this administration imo. Not the additional national debt but the "closing of tax loopholes that encourage corporations to ship American jobs overseas."!
Hey git.....I'm still seeing that big double bar bearish alert on the daily "CycleIdentifier" indicator so I'm ok with this intitial small short, but there's a long alert on the "Uberfractal" indi also on the daily chart so I think we'll see pennies $1.592 probably, but I don't mind starting small again and adding more heavily as the price rises to accomodate the overall bearish tense that I see with that cycleIdentifier indi. I think and hope that this will prove to be a strong hard bounce but not a bullish reversal here.
Taking a stab at a small G/U short reentry at $1.586. I've got an open order to fill again at $1.59.
Hey omar........G/U is now priced right where I closed out my final short last night. I missed out on a solid 80 pips from this mornings low. I nailed the top within 5 pips but short changed myself on the bottom more than I'd like to admit. So here I sit looking to feed my forex addiction looking at charts on the pairs for another trade. I'm half tempted to join your G/U short again at the bottom of the quad tunnel on the hour chart just 25 pips above. Just don't know yet....
omar!! lol.....
"How to Beat Deflation
Strategies to protect your portfolio from—and take advantage of—the dreaded 'D' word.
The markets are signaling that a bout of deflation may be coming. Many economists still dismiss the threat. But if they are wrong, and deflation does set in, what would it mean for stocks, bonds, gold and other investments?
The last time deflation fears gripped the markets was in 2003, when the economy was recovering slowly from the dot-com recession. The worries of a sustained fall in prices across the economy turned out to be overblown as growth snapped back, prices for oil and other commodities jumped, and inflation rose enough for the Federal Reserve to begin tapping on the monetary brakes in 2004.
But the signs seem more ominous this time around. The core inflation rate rose just 0.9% in June from a year earlier—among the lowest levels seen since 1966.
And on Tuesday, the Commerce Department reported that the core price index for personal-consumption expenditures—a key inflation gauge watched closely by the Fed—was up only 1.4% in June from a year earlier, below the 1.5% to 2% rate the Fed likes to see.
In the bond market, meanwhile, investors have been flocking to all manner of fixed-income investments recently, from Treasurys to "junk" bonds. The attraction: steady interest payments, which would become increasingly valuable if deflation were to take hold.
How striking has the rally been? Investors have bid up high-grade corporate bonds so much that their yields, which move in the opposite direction to price, now are close to the yields on ultrasafe U.S. Treasury bonds. The yield of the Barclays' U.S. Corporate Investment-Grade Index is barely a percentage point above the current 10-year Treasury yield of 2.83%. The spread was about 1.6 points last October.
Some prominent economists are beginning to sound alarms as well. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, for example, said recently that the risk of deflation has risen, and warned of a period of falling prices and slow growth in the U.S similar to that of Japan in recent years.
Deflation doesn't mean prices for goods and services will plunge—that rarely happens. But the longer prices edge lower, the bigger the changes in behavior for consumers and businesses. As corporate profits drop, managers tend to lay off more workers and cut spending, while consumers, expecting lower prices in the future, pull back on buying, weighing on profits even more.
You will know you are in period of true deflation when there is a sustained decline in prices over a couple of years, not just a negative core CPI reading for a few months, economists say.
The problem is that deflation is much more difficult to stop than its cousin, inflation. Central bankers can raise interest rates sharply to stop rising prices, but they can cut interest rates only as far as zero; after that they have to get creative to put more money into circulation. It can be like pushing on a string.
Plenty of economists doubt a long period of deflation will unfold in the U.S. Unlike Japan, which saw steady declines in wages and productivity during the 1990s, the U.S. has had relatively stable growth in both recently, says Tom Porcelli, U.S. market economist at RBC Capital Markets. "Structurally, we are a different animal from what Japan went through," he says.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has said the central bank would do whatever it can to prevent significant deflation in the U.S. In a now-famous 2002 speech, while he was a Fed governor, he said, "The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press … that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost," and thus fight deflation.
Of course, if the Fed were to turn on its money machine full blast, that could spark inflationary pressures over the longer term, bringing a whole new set of investing challenges.
Some money managers are playing both scenarios, investing with an eye on deflation in the short-term and inflation later on. "We're not sure which side the bubble is on," says David Scott, chief investment officer at Sunrise Advisors Inc. of Leawood, Kan., who is buying inflation hedges—such as a silver exchange-traded fund and commodity funds—and deflation hedges like cash and short-term bonds.
If deflation does kick in over the next several months, here is how it might affect your portfolio, from stocks and bonds to cash and real estate:
Deflation is generally bad news for stocks, since a period of falling prices and weak demand tends to weigh down corporate earnings and, therefore, share prices.
But that doesn't mean investors concerned about deflation should avoid stocks entirely. Companies with plenty of cash, low debt, steady dividends and products that people will buy even in tough economic times should fare relatively well, analysts say.
And if inflation does come roaring back in the longer term, these companies might still do well because they tend to have significant pricing power. That means they can raise prices to compensate for their own rising costs.
Many stocks in the consumer-staples sector will likely hold up well in a deflationary period, money managers and analysts say. Investors should seek out companies that dominate their industries, such as spice maker McCormick & Co., says Josh Peters, editor of Morningstar DividendInvestor.
One sector that warrants caution: financials. As borrowers struggle to pay off debts, lenders could face more defaults. And as loans are paid down, there may be little demand for new borrowing. Both would hurt profits.
Bonds
In a deflationary environment, longer-term government bonds tend to do well. As investors rush to the safety of Treasuries, yields drop and prices jump, resulting in higher total returns. Hence the recent rally.
Bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach—who thinks yields on the 10-year Treasury note could fall to 2%—has about 40% of the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund's assets in longer-term government debt, such as Ginnie Mae securities. If yields on 10-year Treasurys fall to 2% within a year, investors could reap total returns of 10% to 12% as the price of the securities jump, he says.
Zero-coupon Treasury bonds, known as strips, can provide the best protection, since the fixed rates are locked in and automatically reinvested at the fixed rate, says Troy Von Haefen, a financial adviser in Nashville, Tenn., who primarily uses Treasury strips as a deflation hedge and holds them to maturity.
Conversely, inflation-linked securities such as TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) and I Bonds (inflation-linked savings bonds) could lose value in a period of sustained deflation. When the consumer price index turned negative in 2009, for example, rates on I Bonds temporarily dropped to 0%. Investors could see the value of their TIPS decline, since any negative change in the CPI would be applied to TIPS' principal, reducing the interest earned. (If investors buy TIPS at auction and hold the bonds until maturity, the Treasury pays the inflation-adjusted principal or the original principal, whichever is greater.)
Last month, Janet Briaud, a financial adviser in Bryan, Texas, sold her clients' holdings in TIPS, parked the proceeds in cash and has been putting as much as 20% of clients' money in long-term government bonds. "If markets come down over the next 18 months, we expect that investors will go to the safe haven of Treasury bonds," she says.
Cash
Cash is king in a deflationary world. While investors may not earn much interest, cash gains in value as prices fall. "If you're concerned about deflation in the short-term, cash gives you the best flexibility," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst at Bankrate.com.
Amid a flight to safety, yields on money-market mutual funds have fallen to near-record lows, even as banks are more inclined to cut yields on deposit products. Just last week, Bank of America Corp. cut some rates on CDs. Average yields on one- and five-year CDs have fallen from 3.77% and 4.03%, respectively, in August 2007, to 0.66% and 1.93%, according to Bankrate.com.
But consumers can find higher yields at smaller community banks or credit unions and other financial institutions. The banking units of SLM Corp.'s Sallie Mae and Discover Financial Services are offering one-year CDs of 1.5% or more, while NewDominionDirect.com is paying 2% on two-year CDs.
Hard Assets
Deflation generally means falling prices for commodities, real estate and other hard assets. But as with stocks, investors shouldn't write off the category altogether.
Gold, which many investors consider an inflation hedge, also can be a useful deflation-fighting tool, analysts say. The government tends to respond to deflationary concerns by printing money, which in turn can spark fears of inflation and drive up the price of the metal. Gold is a hedge against financial stress, and "the source of stress doesn't matter, whether deflationary or inflationary," says Joe Foster, manager of the Van Eck International Investors Gold Fund.
In a deflationary period, investors should be especially wary of commercial and residential real estate and the real estate investment trusts that invest in such properties, analysts say. Much of the value of real estate is predicated on an ability to raise rents, says Morningstar's Mr. Peters. A lack of inflation, little rent-raising power and low occupancy rates, he says, "could come back to hammer this group a second time."
Debt
Deflation generally isn't kind to debtors. "If you have $1,000 in debt, and if prices are falling, it will cost you more in terms of forgone goods and services," says Kris Mitchener, an economics professor at the Leavey School of Business at Santa Clara University.
To the extent that you have to take on any debt, opt for as short a term as possible, says David Hultstrom, a financial adviser in Woodstock, Ga., who would counsel clients to pay off their mortgages and invest in long-term bonds if they expect a deflationary environment. "You don't want to get locked in.""
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657504575411483630498058.html
Well I'm calling it quits for the night I think. I hope to wake up to a freshly filled G/U short tomorrow morning. lol Yeah right...
I'm almost wary of having any kind of a retirement account loniee. Social security is still at risk, stock market fund based retirement accounts are very risky imo and if things get really bad during this upcoming decade, I can imagine retirement accounts disappearing into the pockets of the ceos and board of directors. I don't know what the answer is other than paying off your mortgage and having a widely diversified "portfolio" with some metals. Your definately wise not putting all or a big portion of your eggs in a fx solutions account basket.
I hear ya! I should be doing the same loniee. I think what I'll do is wait until I'm another few hundred ahead over the next couple months in my FXCM account and then move a those few hundred over to a real and funded Oanda account and use both accounts to do a comparison and have one open when and if another fails me. If I fall in love with Oanda, I'll move the bulk of my funds over to it and leave a smaller backup account with FXCM.
Hey kermit! I'm exactly 10 pips from being even up on my first/last N/J short. I had closed all the other N/J shorts out for very good gains but I'm stuck holding this intial position that I refuse to sell off at a loss especially since I see a weekly chart that's ripe for another lengthy sell off. I can only hope that I'm seeing things correctly. LOL
Thanks loniee and I totally understand your situation. I'm still holding my first short entry on N/J from almost three full weeks ago and I'm going to hold it till I get good 'n green on it! lol
Oh and I think git has the right idea to hold G/U overnight but I'm not going to curse my gains. And if I can just reenter over the next couple days before more downside I'll be a happy trader. I'm not unhappy, just restless. lol
Enjoy your evening git! Goodnight to you!
FWIW, I still have that bearish double bar reversal alert on the "CycleIdentifier" MT4 indicator and there is no bullish "Uber" arrow on the weekly MT4 chart, I'm thinking we're still moving through bear country.
I got a fresh bullish long trade arrow on the "Uberfractal" indicator in each of the time frames 1 hour, 4 hour and daily and it's trading below the lower ema channel on the daily chart now so I'm taking all profits for now. I figured I had sold off at least an hour too soon loniee and I was right. I'm almost always entering too early and exiting too soon. I didn't enter very early this go 'round, but I've closed out too soon I'm afraid. Nonetheless, I'm definately out for now. I did set an open order to reenter a small position again at pennies $1.592 mark but may readjust depending on MT4 indicator buy/sell triggers and I'll see how G/U trades over the next couple days.
I've gone against my plan and my prior word and closed out all my remaining positions here. It's priced at the $1.581 support mentioned by the article posted earlier and trading a bit below the 4 hour ema channel so I'm out now waiting to reenter on a bounce. But....I'm feeling a bit at risk here for missing out on further gains. I should have just held my intitial short!
Well thanks again git for your time! I think you're probably right about a bounce here so I closed another position but I'm leaving my last couple open just in case it slides down that ema channel slope on the 4 hour chart. I'll add on any bounce of course though. And I think pennies is right when he says that the $1.7o is the top extreme range that the author of the article was pointing out. I still think we'll see at least the top of the quad tunnel on the 4 hour chart so I'm not budging on these other open positions till $1.565. If I see a bullish trigger on the 4 hour MT4 I may readjust my thinking but right now I think we're good for $1.57 anyway.
That's it git! I don't know what you did, but it made the file loadable for me. Thank you!
Now I'm not only feeling ignorant over the indicator downloads, but I'm feeling half retarded too for taking profits earlier on some of my G/U shorts. I do it every time too! I wait and wait and then when it moves I TP too early. Fortunately though I didn't close out but around half of my position so I still have some working for me now.
No SGs loaded beautifully! It was omars that failed to load as normal.
http://rapidshare.com/files/411404812/MTStoc_-GARTLEY.tpl
http://rapidshare.com/files/411402537/korharmonics_v6.7.9_test_.zip
I'm an ignoramus git! I'm just not able to open or extract the files as I should be able to. The only answer I can see is either I drop the subject or "in your spare time" you might shoot the two indis to me in the same format that you have in the past since I've not had any problems loading your indicators. I think it's because of the folder I already have on my desktop which you threw together for me in the past.
Back in a while......
G/U price sitting with a couple small green candles just above the quad tunnel on the 1 hour chart now. Same price position/distance as the previous 4 or so bounces off the tunnel on the hour chart.
MTStoc_-GARTLEY.tpl (if the .tpl is what you're asking).
There's no option to "extract" when I right click git. What a PITA!
I locked in a bit of profit on G/U here at $1.58976. That $1.70 price projection from the article spooked me even though I just can't imagine it happening before a pullback to at least the quad tunnel on the 4 hour chart so I'm leaving the rest of my positions to run to the top of the tunnel.
git......I downloaded the first one to the desktop but there was no option to "extract" the file at all. And I still got that same error message when I click "open". Nevermind at this point......I don't want to waste anymore of your time and I'm tired of wasting my time with it too.
Oh that's just onerfull git! Just wonerful!
I'll see if I can get it right now git. Sorry and thanks!
git......the first "vininl" indi loaded just fine and appears on my chart as hoped for! I wish I could say the same for the two indicators that omar posted; the "korharmonics" and the "MT4_MOTHERLOAD" (MTStoch_-GARTLEY.tpl) from posts #66530 and #66532. They loaded into my "experts" folder under "indicators" as zipped files but when I tried to "extract all" I simply got the sub files with exclamation point yellow diamond icons. And when I tried to "open" the zipped files I got the message "to open this file, windows needs to know what program created it. So I'm dead in the water with it. Here's the two files that omar posted.
http://rapidshare.com/files/411402537/korharmonics_v6.7.9_test_.zip
http://rapidshare.com/files/411404812/MTStoc_-GARTLEY.tpl
Excellent git! I really do hate to ask but at the same time sure do appreciate it! Thanks again!
Wouldn't that be nice stargate? lol I'm not loaded heavily, but I've got enough of a position here to be gainly enough to please me if I can just get a good 300 pips or so out of it before any bounce off the quad tunnel on the 4 hour chart.
G/U dropping now......fingers crossed we get a nice deep drop of conviction here!
Well thanks for posting a screenshot of them SG! I definately want them all if I can get them without giving away my full identity. Don't worry about it now or ever for that matter really, but if you or someone does have the free time and desire to post them in downloadable form that would be great!
Hey SG, can you post those indicators for us to copy without our having to "register" with forex-TSD? I refuse to give out my full birthday without absolute necessity! I want the indicators but not badly enough to register with these guys. Birthdate year would have been fine but I'm not giving them anymore.
You do know your ichimoku clouds pennies! I tend to get lost in them but you help make it easier to navigate through them.
Here's a chart with the bearish double bar "CycleIdentifier" indicator at the bottom window of the chart showing on the "daily" G/U chart. As I said in an earlier post, the double bars preceed larger price movements on the reversals than the smaller single line bars when scrolling back through the charts historically. And depending on the wave count of course there could be some huge pips to a reversal.
Good morning all! And thanks for the indicators SG! It kind of feels like my birthday! I have to load them before I can see them like a child has to open a birthday present before finding out what it is. LOL I'll try and load 'em and see what I come up with. That's the kind of thing that makes this board great; the sharing of valuable tools and info and knowledge! No better place to be for junior forex traders, in my opinion!
Vengeance trading! I like it! lol...
But....if we do see a continued and extended rally all the way up to the $1.645 area to touch on the .382 fib level on the full weekly chart price movement, which would also meet the strong line of resistance off the two previous price tops on the same weekly chart, we're still at a "due" point for that pullback. I can and will add all the way to $1.65 if necessary.