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Rancho,
Delighted to hear this, perhaps there is a bit of justice after all. By all means let us know how this pans out...
I think it's safe to say that most of us here are more than willing to examin and discuss both the pluses and the minuses of our stock, I for one think there's lots of room for improvement. But I also think it's safe to say that in the minds of 99% of the honest investors who frequent and support IHUB, these bashers' arrogance, constant provocations and insulting self-righteousness even towards well-respected posters like chcr or BB should have no place here.
Thanks for the insight. Do post about any new developments you might catch, I have a feeling the next few weeks have a good chance of [finally] get the PPS in the territory where it belongs.
Will address other posts later folks. For now I'm gonna finally try and catch that nap (jet lag can be so weird!)
Ten2Ten, use the HIDE feature (think about it, would you *really* miss any such posts? <g>) People of this ilk aren't your standard basher. This one has done his/her "work" with great attention to both driving legit investors up the wall AND staying just under the threshhold provided by the site's rules, thus playing both the site and this board like old fiddles. I suspect the exact same thing happened on RB. He even managed to engage some of the good guys and drive them so crazy that THEY lost it and got kicked out!
Monkeytrots is already on hide by 4 people. I suspect that like me they have carefully read tons of his posts both here and on RB and concluded that for such an educated person to be so extraordinarily grudgeful and acrimonious towards a company, and to spend such enormous amounts of time posting "questions" and calculated, always-well-timed negative comments everywhere, there has to be a tremendous amount of bad blood in the equation. As you noted, he has consistently refused to state if he even is a shareholder. My guess? Monkeytrots/Mongo1071 is some kind of lawyer, consultant or broker who in the past got the short end of the stick in some dealings with the company and is trying to hurt ERHC's reputation as much as possible WHILE making money on the stock through all the manipulations to get back at them.
FWIW I also have Mongo1071 (quite possibly the same individual and most definitely the same agenda) on hide, as do 4 others on this board. One can only hope that at some point IHUB will do the right thing and kick them out, but you know they'll be right back under some other alias... (There must be a lot at stake!)
Here is how to do it: click on their name, which brings up the profile, then click "hide this poster." You're done!
Anyway, I'm just back in town and have a lot of catching up to do. I hope this helps.
Coydog in my mind there is an ENORMOUS difference between an honest effort at swing trading / day trading and manipulating a stock via pumping, bashing, or worse. The fact that we say in the Ibox that ERHC "is not a daytrader-type stock" is both a matter of common-sense and an attempt at helping the newbies not get burnt by thinking that given the stock's unbelievable potential they automatically will make a killing on it.
IMHO you do make an excellent point, the experience swing trader who's done quality DD *can* do well with ERHC. Thanks for your honest disclosure and welcome here!
Welcome, and nice to have you post here. Your message makes points which I can see and deserves a thoughtful reply. I just got back and have to pack, etc. My next 36-48 hours will be spent travelling and getting "back to normal." Kindly give me a bit of time to share my thoughts on this. Meanwhile my co-leaders on the board may well tell you what *they* think. This board is a team effort!
BB, I forgot to ask you, have you had a chance to ask rare40 if it would be OK to re-post his RB Msg. 91597 here? I really think it would be of great value to people here.
BB, what a TERRIFIC series of posts!
Ten2Ten, BB and I shared a few thoughts about where the PPS would be in, off the top of my head, about 2-3 months and by year's end. I think that was a few weeks ago, you might want to look those up too.
Hope this helps.
I will second that. Mongo's agenda and methods are textbook and crystal clear, as are Monkeytrots' (possibly same person anyway, and definitely part of the same pack.) Anyone doubting this for a second should read their posts both here and at RB. Most enlightening.
For the newbies, http://www.erhc.blogspot.com/ is the ERHC Blog (URL was of course "forgotten" by Mongo1071.) Written by journalist Joe Shea, it's a new and most interesting source of info and opinion about ERHC. I've put it in the Ibox but I'm reposting it here for everyone's convenience. It's a soundbox, a soapbox, a source of news, and much more. Definitely a breath of fresh air for ERHC longs.
Thans Ten2Ten, large blocks huh? Sounds like there's a lot going on behind some doors. Aside from the few larg-ish holders that sold out these past few weeks, it's very difficult for me to imagine that anyone with knowledge of what's going on would be selling at 50 cents THIS close to a long anticipated and very favorable outcome. I wonder if there might be some quiet "repositioning" going on. I don't have the numbers right in front of me, but I seem to remember that Offor is not that far from majority ownership. Maybe he and/or trusted folks are doing that, or maybe it's just that some are smelling the coffee and getting back in before the big jump...
Regarding the lack of spike, FWIW I have long thought that ERHC will not behave in a "normal" way until it is more established and widely regarded as a company that's in for the long run. We know we have the rights. Co-operatorship will go a very long way towards making larger investors jump in with us.
Thanks Rancho, and I agree. I do think they have been erring a little too much "on the side of caution and quiet." Just like the extreme opposite it's not a good thing. BUT it will be interesting to see how things are handled after the awards. Mature/professional outfits take PR very seriously and one would indeed assume there should be a difference.
I was away for most of the day, how do longs here view the fairly large volume but pretty flat results for ERHC vis a vis the DJN article?
Care to elaborate a bit? You lost me LOL.
Gotta run.
Excellent point Rancho!
What do you think of my comments about the way PR is handled at ERHC (feel free to look back at some of my earlier posts too, I believe it's been an ongoing and serious problem.)
Thanks for posting ddragon.
My take on it? Nothing entirely new but getting this all over DJN is going to bring quite a bit of attention to ERHC. As expected Norval Scott 's article is well researched and written. It's great to have so many quotes from shareholders (why don't journalists do this more often?!) but I do find Memon's comments pretty lame and overly cautious. He may just be continuing that long - and regrettable - company tradition of letting as little out as possible and leaving shareholders to try and read in between the lines. There is a lot more he could say without jeopardizing the current deal-making process. Let us hope this policy changes once the Awards are announced and we move to the next phase. PR will definitely need to be handled better at that level.
Thanks. Good to have you here too.
Rancho, about the "African mind"
Thanks for sharing your readings.
If I may, here is another angle, this time from personal interaction with "top level/big dog Africans." I have long resisted sharing these thoughts but I believe they might be of help to some at this point in time.
First, a little disclaimer, this goes back about 30 years, and the people I personally observed and directly interacted with in a University setting were *not* from Nigeria. However, they *were* sons of kings, rulers, tribal chiefs and the like from all over Africa and the Middle East who had been sent overseas to get an "education" and in this sense I believe the way they behaved and thought, is still very telling today (nothing much has really changed in most African countries, it's been one dictatorship after another, although nowadays it's called something else...)
I have vivid memories of the extraordinary sense of superiority over others and of the utter contempt for Western values most of them would display on an almost daily basis. Although thousands of miles away from home, they would almost never back down or even try to adjust, unless 1) faced with overwhelming power or 2) presented with some kind of deal that they could take advantage of... At the time, I remember thinking that this was just astonishing, but thinking back on it, I don't think that it was only because they knew that Daddy's money and influence could bail them out of just about any kind of trouble. Simply put, they had just been raised that way. The thought that they would have to abide by the common man's law was simple heresy to them. And why not? They knew that whether they went back home after a few years with or without a MBA or whatever diploma, it had been one heck of a party and they would soon be in a position of immense power anyways.
Does this apply to Offor? Obasanjo? STP's President and cohorts? Any ERHC holder should be the judge. I do believe that it explains at least in part why there still is such a gigantic divide between the poor and the ever-richer in many Africa countries, and possibly why Offor relinquished majority ownership in ERHC only recently.
Remember, this is just "one angle," human nature is complicated and there are obviously other ways of viewing/understanding the mindset of the current strong men in Nigeria, STP, etc. and as a result what's happening there right now on a geo-political level.
I hope my observations help others.
Steve, thanks for posting this. I don't think this move is nearly as strong as it needs to be, but it's a good start. I agree it's long overdue!
BB agreed on most points, although you may remember the reservations I have about Upstream/Morgan. OK as ONE "source", but to be taken with a certain caution and definitely to cross-validate with others. I personally am glad we now have the JS blog as a new and more up-and-up source of info. Some may not like his style or whatever but BM just isn't in the same league.
I believe #5 is one key reason. The top-level Nigerians may be extraordinarily unprofessional and unpredictable, but they aren't stupid and they know a billion (that they can make) when they see one LOL. They have been around oil long enough to understand that without deep-water rigs ready to go to work, none of these awards will translate into real profits anytime soon. And they know full-well that most rigs are already committed... They aren't pushing their own EEZ process forward by accident!
Here is another key reason IMO. If I'm not mistaken our CEO Memon was in Africa very recently (could well still be there) and may have been discussing the actual fine points of awards for one or more blocks, and possibly even of co-operatorship with our new, well-respected partners/drillers in those blocks. To my thinking, this is even more important than block award announcements this week because it speaks of a stage of the whole negotiation process that is much closer to a real conclusion/decision. Once that's done and widely announced, I am convinced that a whole lot more private and institutional investors will pay attention to ERHC.
I am cautiously, but significantly more optimistic about our long-term outcome than I was a month ago.
BB, chcr did just the same to me... At first I was a little surprised but I never regretted it <g> I totally understand that you would want to spend less time on ERHC once we get "official" validation (it is my opinion that anyone who's done a bit of DD could see that we HAVE already gotten the non-official type in many subtle ways!) and I feel just the same. Things tend to be less high-maintenance once a stock is established anyways. Meanwhile, your contributions and leadership mean a lot to us ERHC longs at IHUB.
As you have probably read earlier, I occasionally read RB posts but out of principle I do not participate, nor do I have an alias there. Would you kindly ask rare40 if you could repost Msg. 91597 here? I find this post outstanding, it completely belongs here!
Or better yet, ask rare40 to do this in person? This kind of insight is just outstanding.
BB thanks for starting up items for the new Ibox Yearly Summary section. As stated earlier, this week is an insane one for me, I hope things wilm calm down by next Wednesday or so. Platina, chcr and other longs, please chime in and help out.
Gotta go!
That's the right idea, but it's large chunks of ocean "blocks" with possibly billions of barrels of oil and lots of LNG too in deep water, not land. Have a look at the Ibox.
ERHC is a stock I've owned for long enough to understand that it's been too crossmixed between Africa and America to behave like you would expect. Joe's blog offers interpretations of the most recent bizarre behavior/manipulations (going down on news that if you read between the lines are actually incredibly positive) that could well be right on the money (no pun intended.)
Wanna chart something friend? Well here it is. I rarely do this but I will tell you that I expect the stock to average $2 in about 3 months, and 3-5 dollars at year's end, just based on our rights. If we do get operatorship with Noble, Devon, Pioneer, etc., doubling these figures isn't unreasonable. Put this down or print it out and compare it to your chart in 3 or 12 months.
All IMHO.
Hey chcr you know what I think of BM but thanks for putting any news up (right now, I'm totally swamped) let's hope the man is right this time. Have you seen Joe Shea's blog yet? It's excellent and mirrors many of my own thoughts. I've added it to the Ibox.
ERHC http://www.erhc.blogspot.com/ take a look at this most interesting site, Estimated_Prophet.
Joe Shea makes some excellent points. This is a balanced opinion which IMHO will also help you understand why charts aren't that relevant to this stock at THIS point in time.
3-6 months from now that may be a different story altogether, and I venture to guess many of us longs hope they will! Have you gotten any shares yet?
Ten2Ten I don't know about others but I don't think that there have been any new significant developments since then (not sure if the JDA has reopened yet, not even sure if they were open on 12/31, remember, this is Africa!)
Also, sadly nobody has followed up on my post #325, FWIW I'm completely tied up for the next two weeks anyway... Best I can do is take a peek here from time to time.
ERHC. IMPORTANT!
Happy New Year to all.
As I reflect on 2004, I would like to first express my deepest sorrow and sympathy for all the victims of the cataclysmic Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. Their plight is far more important than any of the silly stuff we Westerners tend to concern ourselves with.
Second, as far ERHC goes there have been quite a few developments this year and while the PPS is far from where we'd like it to be, I thought it would be useful to start a new tradition of publishing in the IBOX above a recap of each past year that summarizes what we LONGS agree has happened. I think that might be a very useful tool as a "progress-meter" for both existing shareholders and prospective shareholders.
I propose a very simple structure:
A - Unrealized developments for the company and stock (our "disappointments")
B - Actual ERHC accomplishments (what we as shareholders liked)
I suggest VERY SHORT, to-the-point items under each header (A1, A2, etc.)
What do you folks think? Please contribute and let me know!
If this is a good idea, go ahead and post your thoughts. I could start collecting those over the next couple days and I would update the Ibox starting on Monday.
NOTICE to Monkeytrots.
Nice try with the "OT" but the content of your reply is NOT Off Topic on this board at all, and you know that full well. Nice try with the virtuous "This reply will be an exception to the 'talk about stocks' rule that I follow on IHUB" and your warnings about RB (surreal!) but that won't fool chcr, Matt, myself, or anyone else who has REALLY been here a long time and believes in what IHUB is all about.
For the record, this reply complements Balance's excellent post #316.
1) You skirted the first and most important question, a question that moderators and ANYBODY HERE HAS THE RIGHT TO ASK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE ERHC BOARD RULES CLEARLY POSTED IN THE IBOX ABOVE. You were not asked how many shares you own (I would never do that on a public board, I agree that it's private info) BUT simply if you own shares. You flat out refused to state that, and you did not even say "well, this is a stock I've been following for a while and I'm seriously interested in investing in it." It's as odd as it is revealing, because you are clearly not an idiot but an educated and quite articulate person. I guess you got a bit careless here...
2) The vast majority of your 18 posts here (all made in the past week, you had NEVER posted before, another red flag...) only refer to possible negatives or twisted-for-the-occasion negatives and more importantly, IMO show the very substance of a "basher-type" agenda. Worse, you did it in a hostile, holier-than-thou way, even making accusations of fraudulent claims toward a well-respected ERHC stockholder. And you expect people to engage you?!
Anyhow, all this begs the questions...
Why on earth would you or anyone spend all this time on this board IF they are not even a shareholder?! And how on earth could I or anyone who has read your posts here possibly believe that your agenda is to share useful DD or "engender HONEST discussion about ERHC"?
Those who read this post and can't do a IHUB search should know that you did EXACTLY the same thing with ADZR between 3/21/2004 and 6/28/2004.
Although right now I do not have near the time I wish I did to deal with my stocks, *I* am the one who has invested a lot of energy in it, *I* am the one who co-runs this board, *YOU* are not. It is chcr's and my responsibility that it doesn't turn into RB-type junk. You state that you find my "reception here to be extremely rude." "extremely" rude? Geez, I'm almost in tears Buddy! Come on, re-read my posts, that is not the case. Believe me, if I wanted to be rude I would use completely different language!
In any case, given the tone and content of your posts and given your prior history, you were asked to come clean. You *almost* did, but at the end of the day you did not. You had a wonderful opportunity to gain credibility and become part of the exchanges of views here, and you blew it. Sad.
You clearly do not comply with one of the very basic requirements for contributions to this board and you are therefore no longer welcome here. You are on notice as of today 12/31/04, 2:52 PM EST. Take whatever agenda you have elsewhere.
Please post URL. Always.
Platina, both your contributions as a ERHC stock owner and your experience in related industries are welcome here. I think it's not only OK but important to raise concerns or red flags when one owns the stock and feels there might be something weird going on.
For example, I can't say I'm very happy with the recent developments on the 10K. "Going concern removed" yes but at what cost? There's obviously some wheelin' and dealin' behind the scenes that's awfully sweet for the small number of people who currently "run" this company. Is that uncommon? No, rather the opposite. But as I've posted before Offor and ERHC management really need to show considerably more transparency and more respect for the shareholder if they ever expect to make it to the big boards and attract big-time money.
As to the reasons for paying $8/month or so for IHUB premium, again the ability to connect with people privately (to exchange phone numbers, private email, set up meetings, etc.) is paramount to me, but I left out something that's equally critical IMHO, and that's the ability to search all IHUB boards with just one click. I cannot tell you how often I've needed and used that.
As to BB, well I couldn't agree more, I believe I welcomed him here a while back, and I wish he'd direct his energy to this board instead of RB.
Happy (early) birthday Morten! (sorry...)
Rancho I don't have time to constantly monitor boards - and RB is especially disgustipating anyway - but I have read your posts on and off there and IF you are Rancho60008 which I assume is correct then you are MOST WELCOME here!
Thanks for pointing me to the Monkey board at RB, but I was completely unable to find out what it's about! Nor was I able to find basic info on the board or on a poster as anyone can do here. Very odd.
FWIW I don't expect Monkeytrots to provide the info you request about why ERHC would be a scam, I think post #294 speaks for itself.
Platina no I don't have a dog but I grew up with them and I love most of them. But then I love cats too...
As to the "idiots" bashers or pumpers) from RB we have ways here of dealing with them that RB doesn't. Nor do they care anyway (Lycos is probably one of the worst-run Internet companies out there.)
Thanks so much for the intro. I'm glad you like Alphatrade but I do regret that you, BB or others won't pluck a few $ into the IHUB membership. It's well worth the money - an infinitesimal fraction of what we put out when we buy stocks! - and most importantly that's the only safe way to share private email addresses and/or to connect, well, privately (I would NEVER expect or even want you to share that kind of info on a public board!) It has helped me make large $$ at times.
Anyhow, to the best of my knowledge there's nothing remotely close to IHUB out there and it would make so much sense to have ERHC longs leave RB altogether and let the dogs go at each other's throat.
monkeytrots only a first grader would make such an assumption. I stated the only facts that are VERIFIABLE (lurking certainly is not, neither is it an "art," my goodness that would really be awful for arts of any sort!) and your post borders insulting both my intelligence and that of many others. This kind of stuff has no place here and will not be tolerated.
As much as I do appreciate and encourage DIFFERENCES of opinion, I have read all your posts and I think it is indeed high time that you tell us:
1) if you hold ERHC shares, and how long you've had them.
2) if you have, or have had, a relationship of any sort with ERHC, Chrome (you obviously know and care quite a bit about the company) or any of their officers or consultants.
3) what your agenda is.
Also, I am asking you for the second and LAST time to publicly and truthfully state here the alias you post under at RB. We know who Platina, BB, etc. are, they have not hidden or attempted to do so (for the record I do NOT post at RB.)
NOW, you have two options:
Honestly respond to each request above, come clean and GAIN CREDIBILITY (I for one happen to think that some of what you posted has merit, but I will not address it without knowing/respecting you better. Fair enough?) which means that from now on you can be a productive part of the discussion, by respectfully agreeing or disagreeing. I sincerely hope you will choose this route.
OR
Skirt the issues and lose both credibility and your ability to post on this board, and quite possibly elsewhere.
Platina very little time this AM, haven't gotten anything yet about the 10K. Again, if RB still gives you this kind of trouble, why don't you politely suggest that reasonably-minded longs move their conversations here? Yes, you may have to do that often, but maybe, just maybe some will finally smell the coffee. I know, I know, how many thousands of bashing/pumping posts will they need to endure to get to this simple conclusion?! Sigh.
Gotta run.
Monkeytrots, I just have a few minutes to log on this AM so I shall be brief. It would do you well to re-read my post. I asked you to elaborate on your position and you did that, for which I thank you. ERHC does have some clarification to do and many improvements to make (read my previous posts!) let us hope that will be done very soon. Let's keep in mind that if we assume that ERHC majority owner(s) and management want to move us ASAP to the big boards - a reasonable assumption as they stand to make billions from it anyway - that will be taken care of sooner or later. Secondly, there was NO sarcasm of any sort in my post. You can't just waltz in here and make such a post out of the blue and not raise suspicions. Simply put, we want to keep this board free of RB-type crap, there was nothing personal about it.
Also, I would like to call your attention to the fact that you have NOT "been 'here' a lot longer than either yourself or BB." YOU have signed on as a freebie poster on Friday, March 05, 2004. BB has been at IHUB since Monday, August 11, 2003 and I have been here since December 06, 2003 (and checking these boards on and off long before that.)
Making such an erroneous claim does not help. By the way, what alias do you post under at RB?
ERHC, no dilution at all would be even better BB, but I agree it's no factor at this point in time.
I saw his post but didn't reply because I was busy AND didn't think he was right anyway.
Monkeytrots, this is IHUB, not RB, if you believe BB and I are wrong and can substantiate why, the burden is now on you to elaborate.
ERHC search for premium members?
Yup. A happy coincidence really, I was actually looking for something else. But hey, welcome here!
Awards for blocks 2-6 should be announced sometime next week and if you do some DD you may conclude as I did that we should be EXTREMELY pleased. Expect a major pop, followed by some flattening but probably still far above the ridiculous lows we've been at. Once things stabilize it'd be great to have your TA here (it ain't my forte...)
You're most welcome EP. Here's to hope that in a few months ERHC indeed WILL lend itself to some good TA by people like you (heck some of us have been waiting years for that <g>) Please stop by the board and do so when you feel it's time won't you?
ERHC, yes anyone who's interested in making oodles of $$ in the long run, probably should <g>
FWIW at THIS point in time charts are of no use whatsoever for this stock.
Join us on the ERHC board if you'd like. It's been quiet but there's some good info...
Hope this helps.
ERHC, Manti I hadn't thought of that angle as far as the suit is concerned, but it would make a lot of sense! I also agree that the "big boys" and their cronies are doing whatever the heck they want, as always on the stock markets... I guess we'll learn a few things from the 10-K but other than that we're mostly kept in the dark and you can bet that there is a LOT going on these days behind the scenes right now (which of course results in people getting even more at each other's throat on RB, what a shame that the more decent and reasonable ones still haven't migrated here, we certainly could have more civilized and productive discussions and sharing of info. Oh well.)
ERHC... chcr if memory serves that suit was actually settled out of court a few weeks ago.
As to XOM buying out ERHC that would surprise me enormously. The amount of money that Offor can make over the next say, 5 years, just based on our rights, far exceeds anything deal they could possibly offer IMHO. Factor in the recent partnerships with PXD, Noble and now Devon, and the very high likelihood that we will soon also have CO-OPERATORSHIP WITH FAST-TRACK DRILLING in up to three blocks, and you are looking at a huge increase in Offor's worth. Now look down the road 5-10 years with the extraction of those billions of barrels plus gas, and if he keeps on track his fortune can be simply astronomical.
In summary, Offor would have to be a real fool to sell out over the next few months - after years of trying to get this to fruition! - and to my eyes he seems to be anything but a fool.
ERHC I agree Ten2Ten. As I had stated before, a real jump up is unlikely to occur until then. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see some serious erosion in the PPS between now and then. Two reasons for that. 1) there may be a bit of dilution 2) More importantly, like for all stocks I believe there are very-well "connected" people or insiders who really know what's going on and stand to make large profits by buying cheap in the days/weeks/months leading to a major surge in PPS. Of course it's supposed to be "illegal" but our SEC does such an abysmal job that hey, why not?
BTW, a belated welcome to the board to you!
ERHC, AllAfrica article on JDZ bids.
Some interesting info in this one.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200412160315.html